Heading into autumn - what next?

[bramling]

Just starting them as a proportion of all mortality would be a start, yet this is never done.

100% agree. It’s frankly bizarre that we keep getting served up the figures on deaths without context being supplied, namely the numbers who normally would be (sadly but realistically) expected to die every day.

 

[yorksrob]

Average total weekly deaths vary between 9,000 and 12,000 with an average across the year of just over 10,000 a week. For the week before the last with data available (which is always off due to the bank holiday) the expected deaths is around 9,150, compared to the 10,268 actually registered. The variance between the 2015-2019 years and their 5 year average for this time of year is 150-200 or so, so I think it's safe to say they're well out of average (and about 12% higher than normal)

The cumulative excess deaths I find is a helpful way to contextualise just how big some of the numbers are, it's easy to ignore +1000 each week but it very quickly adds up to a lot of people who (theoretically) shouldn't have died. It's also a good way to track any "harvesting" effects - such as the dip from March to early July - a lot of that decrease is because the deaths from that period had occurred previously - it's been a lot less pronounced than I'd have hoped!

Thanks for interpreting those figures - I hadn't appreciated that they were higher in terms of time of year, than normally.

It's interesting to ponder what sort of figures I would consider justification for additional measures. Given that this is now an endemic virus that travels person to person, but it's effects on society society are controllable with vaccines, it would have to be a mortality rate somewhat in excess of normal excess winter mortality as experienced over the past half century or so.

100% agree. It’s frankly bizarre that we keep getting served up the figures on deaths without context being supplied, namely the numbers who normally would be (sadly but realistically) expected to die every day.

Indeed. Context is everything.

 

[DustyBin]

Maybe separate unvaccinated and vaccinated deaths out to show how evolution works…….

Very good.

They already do this, although it’s not always mentioned in the daily updates.

 

[yorksrob]

I notice that MacDonalds at Leeds City station appears to have switched out some of its ordering screens 'to maintain social distancing' again.

Perhaps they've been listening to the lunatics on Independent SAGE.

 

[Ianno87]

Those living in the north may be able to access London’s job market a lot more easily with more WFH. However as wages in the north are lower you may get a situation where employers prefer to recruit those in the North as they are cheaper, meaning those in London would have to accept lower wages to compete. In effect you may end up with levelling down rather than levelling up.

That belies a fundamental misunderstanding of how wage determination works. If you’re greatly expanding the supply of labour, wages are more likely to go down.

This is a massive risk in a country where there are such significant disparities in living costs between different areas.

Except that you may still to compensate in salary offer for cost for a longer (if less often) commute.

The market will still be restricted a little due to distance - it's not going to be for everyone.

 

[takno]

I notice that MacDonalds at Leeds City station appears to have switched out some of its ordering screens 'to maintain social distancing' again.

Perhaps they've been listening to the lunatics on Independent SAGE.

They're probably just broken. If you had a broken machine and a big "get out of jail free" sign kicking around in the cupboard, what would you do?

 

[Ianno87]

They're probably just broken. If you had a broken machine and a big "get out of jail free" sign kicking around in the cupboard, what would you do?

At McDs the sign is displayed on the screen itself.

Perhaps a more simple explanation is that it's sufficiently quiet that they might as well switch a few screens off - I'd anything it slows down the rate of ordering that the kitchen has to keep up with.

 

[adc82140]

Most McD's are franchises, and I'd guess are somewhat beholden to head office, always with the threat of the loss of franchising rights. I wouldn't put it past McVirtue to punish a franchise holder for not getting their rules quite right, so the local manager would be erring on the side of caution.

 

[takno]

Most McD's are franchises, and I'd guess are somewhat beholden to head office, always with the threat of the loss of franchising rights. I wouldn't put it past McVirtue to punish a franchise holder for not getting their rules quite right, so the local manager would be erring on the side of caution.

Fairly sure the one on Leeds station is directly owned. Historically Macdonalds in the UK were always more directly owned than franchises. Haven't checked the stats for 10 years or so though

 

[yorksrob]

They're probably just broken. If you had a broken machine and a big "get out of jail free" sign kicking around in the cupboard, what would you do?

At McDs the sign is displayed on the screen itself.

Perhaps a more simple explanation is that it's sufficiently quiet that they might as well switch a few screens off - I'd anything it slows down the rate of ordering that the kitchen has to keep up with.

@Ianno87 is correct regarding the screen.

The funny thing is, In sure they were all working earlier in the week when things were quieter.

 

[duncanp]

Somewhat surprisingly, even Devi Sridhar thinks that the government's "COVID Winter Plan" will be enough to avoid another lockdown.

The government’s winter Covid plan can prevent another UK lockdown – if we all work together | Devi Sridhar

Vaccinations, testing and measures such as wearing masks will all help slow the disease, says Devi Sridhar, Edinburgh University’s chair of global public health

www.theguardian.com

The government’s winter Covid plan can prevent another UK lockdown – if we all work together​

As the days become shorter and colder, and the country gets ready to head into autumn and then winter, two key questions I am repeatedly asked are: what will the next six months look like; and will there be another national winter lockdown?

We scientists are struggling with our crystal balls as we try to predict a future determined by complex interlocking factors. These include potential new variants; a resurgence of seasonal illnesses such as flu and RSV (a common respiratory virus that usually causes mild, cold-like symptoms), putting pressure on the NHS; a vaccination programme that has proved effective but still requires greater uptake; and public fatigue.

Last September, we heard a more euphoric Boris Johnson declaring normality by Christmas. With hindsight, we know the consequences of this laissez-faire approach, as a deadly second wave led to a brutal winter lockdown and families separated over the festive season. In stark contrast, Johnson’s tone yesterday was more serious and sombre, and the plan he outlined is cautious and on point.

​

Vaccines are being relied upon to do the heavy lifting in damping transmission, stopping severe illness and keeping pressure off the NHS. A concern among scientists is waning immunity, which is to be addressed through a booster programme for priority groups such as health and social care workers, those over 50 and those with underlying health issues.
Another concern is teenagers, which has been addressed through the green light for a mass vaccination programme for 12- to 15-year-olds, similar to those in the US, Canada, Germany, France, Singapore and Israel. This will keep pressure off busy paediatric units and avoid children having prolonged Covid-19 symptoms. In an effort to increase uptake among younger groups, as well as keep businesses such as nightclubs open, vaccine certification is being kept as a reserve policy in England should it be necessary, while Scotland is already moving ahead with these plans.
The second pillar that we are relying on is community testing to catch positive cases so that those infected can isolate for 10 days and not pass on the infection to others. Home testing has been a success, with lateral flow tests finding almost a quarter of positive cases, and preventing infectious individuals from going to schools, workplaces and social events. This will, fortunately, continue over the winter period.
In support of these pillars, the government is advising people how to avoid respiratory infections in general: getting outside as much as possible, opening windows and ventilating indoor spaces, wearing masks indoors in shops and on public transport, and avoiding crowded and busy places.
The plan then looks at how better to support the NHS through the winter, including long Covid services and additional financial investment. Little detail is given on what the cash will be used for. Even before Covid-19, the NHS was stretched during winter, and real investment is needed in not only infrastructure such as beds and equipment, but in recruiting adequate staff and ensuring they are treated properly. The recent backlash against GPs risks upsetting those who are the lifeblood of the NHS and adding to the growing mental health toll and burnout of medical staff. There’s no point having a ventilator if there’s are no trained intensive care staff to operate it.

And while it has a heavy focus on national policies, the plan also notes the importance of helping to vaccinate the world, focusing on Covax, a multilateral mechanism where richer countries donate doses to poorer ones. A more effective measure, however, would be moving from the charity model of donating vaccines to one in which regional manufacturing hubs are set up – so that low-income countries can procure their own supplies, with assistance from the World Bank.

Like every country in the northern hemisphere, the UK government will be steering us through increasingly stormy waters in the months ahead. While a lockdown could become inevitable if health services look close to collapsing, there’s a real chance to avoid harsh winter restrictions.

To avoid a lockdown, we need the various components of the system – vaccination, behavioural changes and widespread testing – to work together. Covid-19 is still here, and we are still in the midst of a pandemic. Let us hope this autumn brings a move away from a divided society arguing over how serious Covid-19 is, to one where we collectively work towards managing this problem, slowing the spread of the disease, and saving lives and livelihoods.

We all want the same thing: for the pandemic to end, and to get back to normal life. Let’s focus together on how we get there.

 

[yorksrob]

An interesting point of view.

The more covid averse scientists are getting their wish with the vaccine booster programme (in spite of the reservations of some of those who've developed the vaccines).

They should let the vaccines do their job and the population will get on with things.

 

[duncanp]

An interesting point of view.

The more covid averse scientists are getting their wish with the vaccine booster programme (in spite of the reservations of some of those who've developed the vaccines).

They should let the vaccines do their job and the population will get on with things.

I have got the feeling that this autumn and winter won't be nearly as bad as last year, in terms of COVID restrictions at least.

For one thing, if the government thought there was a realistic possibility of the NHS being "overwhelmed" and another lockdown likely, it wouldn't have announced a COVID Winter Plan where Plan A was to continue as we are now, and Plan B was to introduce things like compulsory masks and vaccine passports.

For the same reason, the government would not have announced a major relaxation of the foreign travel rules either.

There is enough doom and gloom with food shortages and energy price rises as it is.

But if there is a shortage of sprouts at Christmas, I for one won't mind one bit.

 

[yorksrob]

I have got the feeling that this autumn and winter won't be nearly as bad as last year, in terms of COVID restrictions at least.

For one thing, if the government thought there was a realistic possibility of the NHS being "overwhelmed" and another lockdown likely, it wouldn't have announced a COVID Winter Plan where Plan A was to continue as we are now, and Plan B was to introduce things like compulsory masks and vaccine passports.

For the same reason, the government would not have announced a major relaxation of the foreign travel rules either.

There is enough doom and gloom with food shortages and energy price rises as it is.

But if there is a shortage of sprouts at Christmas, I for one won't mind one bit.

Yes, I must admit, I don't get the impression that the authorities are expecting to be overwhelmed.

The earnings of shortages in the supermarkets seem distant to me. The only products I've had difficulty getting hold of are ones that they've discontinued !

As for Brussels, I adore the things - will be annoyed if there aren't any !

 

[DelayRepay]

Recent reports suggested that 1,000 deaths a week is an acceptable sustained maximum before restrictions are reintroduced. The latest report for the last 7 days has deaths with covid at 995, so just under the threshold, having increased 5.1%. At the same time though, cases are down 23% over the last 7 days, while admissions are down 1.3%. Therefore I think it's possible 1,000 a week will be reached just, but give it a week or two and they'll decline again, so we'll have to see what pressure is put on the Government and what, if any, action they'll take.

Just a note of caution - I think the 995 figure is for the UK, but surely Boris Johnson's 1,000 deaths per week threshold is just for England, given he can only introduce restrictions in England? I think the England weekly figure is running at around 750.

 

[adc82140]

Well it seems that the idiocy pandemic has reached new lows. People are having to be told what to do if they get a cold:

Super cold: Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?

As more of us mix and the weather gets colder, the common cold is back - and it's flooring people.

www.bbc.co.uk

Let's say that you've got a cough or cold and it is not coronavirus. Then most of the time these can be managed at home," says Dr Philippa.
Her recommendation is to have "loads of fluids and rest, over-the-counter simple painkillers for headaches and aches and pains.
"Even simple things like honey in a hot drink can help ease a sore throat."

Some of the hyperbole from the Twitter posts fron students within the article is a really quite scary. These people in a handful of years will be holding jobs with an element of responsibility.

https://mobile.twitter.com/orlaith03/status/1438802668785438725?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1438802668785438725%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fnewsbeat-58624295

Freshers flu is something else I am dying

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanPheby/status/1440425693972549635?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1440425693972549635%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fnewsbeat-58624295

Got my first cold since about January 2020 and I can confirm it's one of the worst colds I've had - 'freshers' flu' on steroids

 

[DelayRepay]

It's an interesting one because I know several people (in different parts of the country, different jobs etc) who are all suffering with various types of cold at the moment. Colds are not unusual, but it is unusual to me to hear so many people having them at the same time.

But, entirely expected, given how we've been living for the last 18 months.

 

[takno]

It's an interesting one because I know several people (in different parts of the country, different jobs etc) who are all suffering with various types of cold at the moment. Colds are not unusual, but it is unusual to me to hear so many people having them at the same time.

But, entirely expected, given how we've been living for the last 18 months.

You know ever since the pubs have reopened and I'm back to getting up early to go to the office, I seem to wake up with a new nasty cold every morning. They're usually gone by lunchtime, but the sore head that goes with them is something else.

 

[35B]

Well it seems that the idiocy pandemic has reached new lows. People are having to be told what to do if they get a cold:

Super cold: Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?

As more of us mix and the weather gets colder, the common cold is back - and it's flooring people.

www.bbc.co.uk

Some of the hyperbole from the Twitter posts fron students within the article is a really quite scary. These people in a handful of years will be holding jobs with an element of responsibility.

https://mobile.twitter.com/orlaith03/status/1438802668785438725?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1438802668785438725%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fnewsbeat-58624295

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanPheby/status/1440425693972549635?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1440425693972549635%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fnewsbeat-58624295

The key phrase is "in a few years". Meanwhile, colleagues are off sick with symptoms that are close enough to the "textbook" Covid symptoms that they are at least having to test to identify what's making them ill.

That's also a "Newsbeat" (i.e. Radio 1) article, but struck me as having reasonable advice at its core.

 

[43066]

It's an interesting one because I know several people (in different parts of the country, different jobs etc) who are all suffering with various types of cold at the moment. Colds are not unusual, but it is unusual to me to hear so many people having them at the same time.

But, entirely expected, given how we've been living for the last 18 months.

Indeed.

I think people need to re learn the fact that catching minor respiratory tract infections is a normal part of being a human being. We have no right to expect “protection” from this from the government, nor to expect others to adapt their behaviour to “protect” us.

None of that would have been remotely controversial in 2019, which shows how much the goal posts have been shifted over the last two years.

 

[initiation]

As another sign of how wrong the 'science' of modelling gets it. Here is a forecast from two weeks ago of where SPI-M thought we would be...the red dot is where we actually are. Remember this sort of stuff is informing government policy. If restrictions had been in place you could damn well bet they would be credited with this rather than some fluctation in spread.

Source: https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1440787407175962624

 

[big_rig]

As another sign of how wrong the 'science' of modelling gets it. Here is a forecast from two weeks ago of where SPI-M thought we would be...the red dot is where we actually are. Remember this sort of stuff is informing government policy. If restrictions had been in place you could damn well bet they would be credited with this rather than some fluctation in spread.

Source: https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1440787407175962624

The incredible thing about this beyond how utterly wrong it is as usual, is that the preamble to this round of modelling included a bunch of reasons for why the round of modelling before it had been so wrong, and that it would be better this time

 

[brad465]

Well it seems that the idiocy pandemic has reached new lows. People are having to be told what to do if they get a cold:

Super cold: Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?

As more of us mix and the weather gets colder, the common cold is back - and it's flooring people.

www.bbc.co.uk

Some of the hyperbole from the Twitter posts fron students within the article is a really quite scary. These people in a handful of years will be holding jobs with an element of responsibility.

https://mobile.twitter.com/orlaith03/status/1438802668785438725?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1438802668785438725%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fnewsbeat-58624295

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanPheby/status/1440425693972549635?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1440425693972549635%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fnewsbeat-58624295

It's an interesting one because I know several people (in different parts of the country, different jobs etc) who are all suffering with various types of cold at the moment. Colds are not unusual, but it is unusual to me to hear so many people having them at the same time.

But, entirely expected, given how we've been living for the last 18 months.

I recall reading a while back that some cold viruses can out-compete Covid, as in a cold virus present in one's body will prevent covid getting in for as long as the cold virus is present. Therefore, I'd say it's a good thing if colds are widely circulating, if they suppress covid as well as being a very mild illness.

 

[initiation]

The incredible thing about this beyond how utterly wrong it is as usual, is that the preamble to this round of modelling included a bunch of reasons for why the round of modelling before it had been so wrong, and that it would be better this time

Reasons given include that they did not foresee that kids don't go to school during August and that it is warm during summer! It honestly feels like they are just making this stuff up, what they model has no bearing on reality.

 

[Eyersey468]

COVID will end up resembling common cold by spring next year, leading experts say

Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert and Sir John Bell have both said coronavirus will eventually cause illness which are as mild as a common cold, playing down fears of a more deadly variant and adding the UK "is over the worst".

news.sky.com

Just been reading this article, let's hope it works out like this.

 

[adc82140]

Even Pantsdown is saying that lockdowns are rather old hat now.

 

[duncanp]

COVID will end up resembling common cold by spring next year, leading experts say

Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert and Sir John Bell have both said coronavirus will eventually cause illness which are as mild as a common cold, playing down fears of a more deadly variant and adding the UK "is over the worst".

news.sky.com

Just been reading this article, let's hope it works out like this.

You beat me to it - I was going to post that article from Sky News.

It is quite encouraging to see medical professionals saying that we are over the worst, as it means politicians have very little justification for introducing more restrictions, let alone a full lockdown.

I am cautiously optimistic that we will get through the autumn and winter without too many restrictions - possibly only strengthened "guidance" on things such as face coverings and household mixing.

 

[Eyersey468]

You beat me to it - I was going to post that article from Sky News.

It is quite encouraging to see medical professionals saying that we are over the worst, as it means politicians have very little justification for introducing more restrictions, let alone a full lockdown.

I am cautiously optimistic that we will get through the autumn and winter without too many restrictions - possibly only strengthened "guidance" on things such as face coverings and household mixing.

I agree there should be no justification for a full lockdown

 

[brad465]

If there's one good thing about the escalating situation regarding shortages and surging gas prices, it's these stories are now overshadowing anything related to covid. These issues in themselves are creating winter concerns the Government could well believe will be more politically damaging than anything to do with covid, so chances are I think a lot of energy (no pun intended) will be focused here and less so on covid for the near future at least (or at least until we start seeing the stories of overwhelmed hospitals that we get every year).

 

[bramling]

If there's one good thing about the escalating situation regarding shortages and surging gas prices, it's these stories are now overshadowing anything related to covid. These issues in themselves are creating winter concerns the Government could well believe will be more politically damaging than anything to do with covid, so chances are I think a lot of energy (no pun intended) will be focused here and less so on covid for the near future at least (or at least until we start seeing the stories of overwhelmed hospitals that we get every year).

Agreed. One also can’t help but make the observation that perhaps these issues might not be occurring had the government not been completely obsessed with Covid for the last 18 months, to the neglect of pretty much everything else.