Heathrow Express use continuing to decline

[John R]

Would I use The Elizabeth line? No. Transfer through Paddington with luggage would be a nightmare

Would it really?

A longer trundle of your case admittedly, through a gateline (as for the HEx), and down a lift to a platform. And then level boarding (unlike the main line platforms).

Slightly more inconvenient, but hardly a nightmare.

If you had said the likelihood of getting a seat was much lower then I would agree with you, but I don’t see the transfer as a big issue.

 

[IrishDave]

If we look at London terminals.

* 1 has heathrow express service (paddington)
* 2 are on the lizzie (liverpool street/moorgate)
* 3 are not on the lizzie but have direct tube services to paddington (Marlybone, Euston, St pancras, Kings Cross, Cannon Street, Charing Cross, Waterloo, Victoria)
* 1 requires a change to reach paddington, but can reach the lizzie with one tube or thameslink hop (London bridge)

So I would argue that for *most* origins Heathrow express is still the fastest rail option, whether it's worth the extra cost is another matter.

You've completely neglected Thameslink, which has direct interchange to the Elizabeth Line at Farringdon (and I'd say that Farringdon TL<>EL is probably the shortest/fastest interchange with the Elizabeth Line).

So that takes out a huge chunk of the traffic arriving at Kings Cross, St Pancras, London Bridge, and arguably Victoria too - as a Brighton resident I find myself using Victoria less and less, now the Elizabeth Line is open and the interchange at Farringdon is so convenient.

 

[Crisso]

I agree the HEX seems useful for travellers wanting connections to/from GWR main line services. Otherwise, in my past experience the time and long walk taken from the Paddington arrival platforms to the Underground has always negated any advantage over the Elizabeth Line, let alone the Piccadilly Line, for eventual Central London destinations.

Another important factor is most travellers are lugging baggage. I’m close to Shenfield Essex so, it’s a no brainier for me thesedays to use the Elizabeth Line for Heathrow. However, prior Crossrail, I always used the GE fast to Stratford, lift to reach the Central Line then, cross platform at Mile End and Barons Court using District and Piccadilly Lines respectively. On the prior occasions I did use the HEX both ways, the connection at Paddington was so drawn out both ways to frankly make it pointless in both time and expense.

Also, my direct Elizabeth Line trains to Heathrow are only limited stop between Paddington and Heathrow - shame they’re not similarly East of Stratford!

Lastly, wouldn’t the HEX have a better chance of long term survival if it was extended into Central London through the Crossrail tunnels to say, Liverpool Street with a set down/pick up interim stop at Tottenham Court Road?

 

[tram21]

I didn't realise this, but a Railcard discounted ticket is £6.65. I would never have considered HeX, but at that price I certainly would do now! I've always thought of it as incredibly expensive, but as it can actually be done cheaply it's cheaper than the Liz line if you book in advance!

 

[Transilien]

I think that the Heathrow express has a place to play as an express from Heathrow to the city centre. However it is simply too expensive in its current form and desperately needs a price cut in order to not be wasting paths into Paddington with low passenger numbers .

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Not really a surprise is it, when you have the option of the Elizabeth Line direct to central London, and business much more cost-conscious.

I assume the passenger numbers are in 1,000s? So it's still carrying >1m passengers per quarter, which suggests the paths aren't going to be given up any time soon.

Agreed. No surprise but paths will not be given up just yet.

 

[12LDA28C]

PRIVs aren't purchasable, it's short for Staff Privilege discounted travel. Perhaps you meant Railcard discount? These are offered to Students, Young Adults, Disabled, Elderly and (for some strange reason) 26-30 year olds, as well as Two Together if you have a travel companion.

But I think the issue here isn't cost, it's the introduction of Crossrail that is stifling footfall on Heathrow Express. Crossrail has the frequency that a National Rail service could ever offer. Looking at the current timetable, Crossrail departures towards Heathrow have a frequency of every 4-8 minutes at Peak times!

I’m well aware what Priv is and I was replying directly to a member of railway staff regarding what price *they* would pay with staff discount. Sorry if you somehow misunderstood what I meant but I was certainly not referring to a publically-available Railcard discount.

 

[Horizon22]

Looking at the current timetable, Crossrail departures towards Heathrow have a frequency of every 4-8 minutes at Peak times!

There is no peak differentiation. It is always 4tph to T4 and 2tph to T5 (6 trains to Heathrow). It’s not always an even 10 minutes though.

I would say that airport services tend to have a higher interchange penalty though as people are a) tired after flights / b) prefer a direct service due to luggage. Hence why a slower but more “direct” Elizabeth line is doing well.

 

[Egg Centric]

I'm not bothered about the cost per se (I am bothered about miss-selling to more price sensitive tourisits though) it just seems utterly pointless unless you are making a journey where Paddington <--> Heathrow by public transport (no matter how "luxurious" and it's not all that because how can it be) specifically makes sense. It's a super niche circumstance. For true luxury you won't want to take the train. For speedy travel to almost everywhere apart from Paddington you will want another service. For a cheaper price you will want another method. I find its ridership numbers hard to understand and I also don't understand the "well it's not much in comparison to my holiday" argument. By that logic you should be happy to pay £50 for anything. Including the advice in this post telling you its silly - DM me for bank details

I fully understand the expenses argument in the sense of maybe not caring too much about what it costs but that still doesn't make it an optimium thing to buy if you're on expenses - again unless you're heading directly to Paddington or taking GWR. If you're expensed then you should probs take a taxi (or better).

 

[TUC]

Why would anyone travelling from the North via the ECML want to use HEx when the Piccadilly Line offers a simpler, much cheaper direct journey?

 

[Failed Unit]

You've completely neglected Thameslink, which has direct interchange to the Elizabeth Line at Farringdon (and I'd say that Farringdon TL<>EL is probably the shortest/fastest interchange with the Elizabeth Line).

So that takes out a huge chunk of the traffic arriving at Kings Cross, St Pancras, London Bridge, and arguably Victoria too - as a Brighton resident I find myself using Victoria less and less, now the Elizabeth Line is open and the interchange at Farringdon is so convenient.

Absolutely agree, the tube from Paddington isn’t the best. What time you gain on the Heathrow Express you lose on the tube compared to the Elizabeth line. I will never use the HeX again, even if it saves me 5 minutes end to end it isn’t worth the extra 2 changes going through 2 barriers compared to using Farringdon to use Thameslink.

The only negative I am seeing with the Elizabeth line is it is pretty full. I am not sure in the high peak if it would be a challenge to get on with baggage.

We had someone from the US that used to use HeX and Taxi to get to our office. They found out the hard way that the Elizabeth line was better when they were late for a meeting because the Taxi was stuck in traffic. (Our office is walkable from Liverpool Street).They won’t make that mistake again.I think with the traffic levels in London the Hex will continue to struggle but will still have a niche for people who are ending their journey near Paddington.

 

[Snow1964]

ORR published latest quarterly figures yesterday (19th)
Heathrow Express dropped 8% on previous year, now just 1,017,137 passengers for the quarter (from table 1223)

For comparison Jul-Sept 2019 was 1,584,252
10 years ago Jul-Sept 2014 was 1,441,009

So lost 36% of passengers in 5 years

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/s5bpixik/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2024.pdf

As the discussion has included talk of fast lines
GWR was 26.416m in July-Sept 2019
and 22.924m in July-Sept 2024

so GWR just 13% down (but that includes the loss of passengers reclassified to Elizabeth line west, so is effectively up, if you assume about 20-25% of the 61m passengers on Elizabeth line were previously on GWR locals, and add them back). Even adding just 10% of EL passengers (6.1m) puts GWR up 10% in 5 years

Does rather justify questioning if Heathrow Express deserves 4 fast paths each hour rather than 2 or 3 based on passenger number trends.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Whether they deserve it or not isn’t going to matter.

The service isn’t just about running trains. It is part of the Regulated Asset Base for the airport so there are bigger finances involved with it continuing to run.

 

[Joe Paxton]

Whether they deserve it or not isn’t going to matter.

The service isn’t just about running trains. It is part of the Regulated Asset Base for the airport so there are bigger finances involved with it continuing to run.

Indeed. The way Heathrow is regulated results in there being certain incentives.

HEx will continue on, for now. The potential decision point will be when HEx's track access agreement (for the GWML) is up. And also perhaps how HEx may, or may not be, part of the Old Oak Common arrangements of the future.

 

[akm]

Does HEx sell Advance fares on the day?

 

[Snow1964]

Indeed. The way Heathrow is regulated results in there being certain incentives.

HEx will continue on, for now. The potential decision point will be when HEx's track access agreement (for the GWML) is up. And also perhaps how HEx may, or may not be, part of the Old Oak Common arrangements of the future.

In June 2024 HEx track access rights were extended to June 2028, so currently only have 3.5 years remaining

Heathrow Express Secures Track Access Agreement to June 2028

www.heathrowexpress.com

I think the TfL Board minutes have an assumption that Elizabeth line trains call at Old Oak Common from mid 2028 (although an exact opening date is not yet known), so about same date.

 

[RT4038]

Why would anyone travelling from the North via the ECML want to use HEx when the Piccadilly Line offers a simpler, much cheaper direct journey?

Because the Piccadilly line is slow, cramped, uncomfortable, often full and generally unpleasant. Fine for enthusiasts (like me) and those who put cheapness or a direct journey above all of these negatives. Not so good for everyone else!

 

[Steveswan10]

Would it be worth finding out what percentage of flyers into Heathrow go onto elsewhere in the country other then London itself and how many go to Paddington for onward journeys via other mainline stations (Euston/Kings Cross ect) St Pancras has the Eurostar so passengers have easy connections to the north and north east via the Midland and the ECML and a short walk to Euston for the Midlands and north West, if their are more heading that way wouldn't it be a better idea (paths, infrastructure pending) to run the Heathrow Express to one of those and to Reading for onward connections and give Paddington and the underground a little breathing space? (I know there is a bus connection to Reading but not sure how long it takes and prices and actual loadings)

 

[Tetchytyke]

Does HEx sell Advance fares on the day?

No.

f their are more heading that way wouldn't it be a better idea (paths, infrastructure pending) to run the Heathrow Express to one of those and to Reading for onward connections

I'm not quite sure what you are meaning with this. Diverting HEx to another London terminal wouldn't work; even if you can find the room at Euston or St Pancras, and even if/when the Dudding Hill line gets electrified, the journey would be significantly slower than Paddington then tube. As for Reading, I can't see a world where the cost of building the infrastructure to allow access to the Reading direction would ever be justified.

 

[Sprinter107]

I’m well aware what Priv is and I was replying directly to a member of railway staff regarding what price *they* would pay with staff discount. Sorry if you somehow misunderstood what I meant but I was certainly not referring to a publically-available Railcard discount.

You could never get PRIV fares on the Heathrow Express at one time. They were not valid. Are they possible now then ?

 

[JN114]

You could never get PRIV fares on the Heathrow Express at one time. They were not valid. Are they possible now then ?

Yes, for at least 10 years now!

 

[Sprinter107]

Yes, for at least 10 years now!

Been a while since I was last on it. Thanks for that.

 

[Djgr]

ORR published latest quarterly figures yesterday (19th)
Heathrow Express dropped 8% on previous year, now just 1,017,137 passengers for the quarter (from table 1223)

For comparison Jul-Sept 2019 was 1,584,252
10 years ago Jul-Sept 2014 was 1,441,009

So lost 36% of passengers in 5 years

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/s5bpixik/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2024.pdf

As the discussion has included talk of fast lines
GWR was 26.416m in July-Sept 2019
and 22.924m in July-Sept 2024

so GWR just 13% down (but that includes the loss of passengers reclassified to Elizabeth line west, so is effectively up, if you assume about 20-25% of the 61m passengers on Elizabeth line were previously on GWR locals, and add them back). Even adding just 10% of EL passengers (6.1m) puts GWR up 10% in 5 years

Does rather justify questioning if Heathrow Express deserves 4 fast paths each hour rather than 2 or 3 based on passenger number trends.

Using scarce paths to run almost empty trains is rarely a good idea. We need to work out a political way forward to cease this.

 

[Failed Unit]

No.


I'm not quite sure what you are meaning with this. Diverting HEx to another London terminal wouldn't work; even if you can find the room at Euston or St Pancras, and even if/when the Dudding Hill line gets electrified, the journey would be significantly slower than Paddington then tube. As for Reading, I can't see a world where the cost of building the infrastructure to allow access to the Reading direction would ever be justified.

One for a different thread - but the new build onto the Reading - Waterloo line keeps coming up and getting kicked into the long grass. No-one will fund it.

Using scarce paths to run almost empty trains is rarely a good idea. We need to work out a political way forward to cease this.

I think the Gatwick Express is as bad, but at least it is extended to Brighton to try and increase the loading.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Using scarce paths to run almost empty trains is rarely a good idea. We need to work out a political way forward to cease this.

If I understand correctly, the paths are basically useless to GWR because they only go as far as Airport Junction and there isn't the capacity to run them further along the fasts to Reading.

 

[Snow1964]

Using scarce paths to run almost empty trains is rarely a good idea. We need to work out a political way forward to cease this.

1m passengers in 3 months is about 11,000 per day

Heathrow Express runs 18-19 hours per day, 4 trains per hour, or about 75 trains each way per day (150 trains)

So average about 73 passengers per train,
(or about 9 per carriage in an 8car train)

Agree using a path that could be used by a long distance or semi-fast service with 300-600 seats doesn't make sense from utilisation point of view.

 

[Failed Unit]

If I understand correctly, the paths are basically useless to GWR because they only go as far as Airport Junction and there isn't the capacity to run them further along the fasts to Reading.

I think you are correct, I think the HeX allows trains to stop at Slough on the mainline.

 

[Snow1964]

If I understand correctly, the paths are basically useless to GWR because they only go as far as Airport Junction and there isn't the capacity to run them further along the fasts to Reading.

Which is why need to consider semi-fast trains too. Same reason South Western runs some trains non stop to Surbiton or Woking then switches them to slow lines. Maybe needs a flyover to allow switches near M25 / Langley to allow this sort of approach

 

[Bikeman78]

I’m amazed by how many people still use it, but it’s their choice I guess. I used it once when it was 1+1 seating because I had a Britrail pass, but otherwise I used the Piccadilly line in the past and would use the Elizabeth line today. Maybe I’ll give the latter a bash next month when in London - out to Heathrow on it and back to South Kensington on the Piccadilly line sounds like an idea.

Maybe all the users can afford a taxi from Paddington to their destinations?

I normally arrive the day before and/or stay in a hotel close to a tube station, or at Heathrow, so there is no point paying extra to get to the airport faster. I have used it on the home bound journey a few times.

 

[physics34]

Would it be worth finding out what percentage of flyers into Heathrow go onto elsewhere in the country other then London itself and how many go to Paddington for onward journeys via other mainline stations (Euston/Kings Cross ect) St Pancras has the Eurostar so passengers have easy connections to the north and north east via the Midland and the ECML and a short walk to Euston for the Midlands and north West, if their are more heading that way wouldn't it be a better idea (paths, infrastructure pending) to run the Heathrow Express to one of those and to Reading for onward connections and give Paddington and the underground a little breathing space? (I know there is a bus connection to Reading but not sure how long it takes and prices and actual loadings)

A rail line from Heathrow towards somewhere like croydon via kingston and Epsom would be a huge success