How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[nlogax]

I'll be VERY pleasantly surprised and happy if social distancing is scrapped completely before the end of this year. Anyone here have any confidence that social distancing WILL be scrapped completely by the end of this year?

It won't be completely scrapped this year, and anyone that thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

 

[Huntergreed]

Yes I know the press don't always get things right. But as well as the Mirror, some of the other press are also reporting about the 9 month plan to get people back to work, and that social distancing will still remain for some time yet. It's not looking too good. Will be absolutely ridiculous if we still have to put up with this disruptive and restrictive social distancing for another 9 months yet!

Ahh I see. I certainly hope this isn’t the case, 9 months is far too long when you look at the current trends. Planning beyond 2-3 months shouldn’t be happening at present given the trends, and the uncertainty over a second, longer lockdown in winter.

How can we possibly get the economy going again properly with social distancing restrictions still in place?

Quite frankly, we can’t. It needs to go, and it needs to be away by October 1st.

If Chris Whitty is alongside Boris at this press conference at 11am, I can bet that he'll be saying something like "We still need to keep up social distancing for many months to come yet."

Apparently Vallance said yesterday it was too early to get people to go back into work. I imagine Whitty will indeed say something like that, although admittedly he’s not considering the economic implications of the advice he gives, just the medical and scientific consequences. The government are supposed to listen to other experts before taking a well-rounded decision.

I'll be VERY pleasantly surprised and happy if social distancing is scrapped completely before the end of this year. Anyone here have any confidence that social distancing WILL be scrapped completely by the end of this year?

I don’t think it can last beyond September. If it does, the economic impact will be very devastating indeed (although that being said, there may well be a second winter lockdown, Sturgeon up here has said that’s a very real possibility).

 

[Belperpete]

Apparently Vallance said yesterday it was too early to get people to go back into work.

Not quite what he said. What he said was that there was no reason to revoke the existing guidance that where you can work from home, you should. He was not saying that people should not be working.

I suspect that many people who are working from home are much less productive, particularly when they are also looking after children. As demand ramps up, it will become increasingly necessary to return to the workplace. And returning to the workplace because you are not sufficiently productive when working from home would be entirely consistent with current guidelines.

In my case, when working from home, my productivity initially increased, but steadily dropped over time, and the backlogged of deferred tasks, that I couldn't do from home, grew steadily.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I don’t think it can last beyond September. If it does, the economic impact will be very devastating indeed (although that being said, there may well be a second winter lockdown, Sturgeon up here has said that’s a very real possibility).

We can't afford it - economically and socially. And quite frankly I'm not prepared to be paying for people's furlough if preventative measures (shielding the elderly and vulnerable, protections in care homes, etc.) can be put in place to mitigate the "winter resurgence" as far as possible. Largely off-topic though.

 

[Class 33]

No mention atall about any possible upcoming changes to social distancing in Boris's speech just now!

But it's worth remembering on the COVID-19 Alert Level 2 chart, that when we do go down to Level 2 it states the actions are "Minimal or no social distancing.". So let's hope we can get down to Level 2 very soon, and the government goes with what it states on that chart to scrap social distancing or at least reducing it.

85 deaths on Wednesday, 66 deaths yesterday. Let's hope there is a further reduction today. Let's hurry up and get these daily deaths right down!

 

[Class 33]

Oh he just mentioned that by November it may MAY be possible to cut social distancing.

 

[BJames]

It won't be completely scrapped this year, and anyone that thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

Interestingly Johnson actually just said in an answer on his conference that social distancing could go by November (at the earliest if we continue to make progress).

 

[geoffk]

Depends on how long it takes to develop a vaccine, I guess. Some of the recent reports on this are encouraging.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends on how long it takes to develop a vaccine, I guess. Some of the recent reports on this are encouraging.

They are, but even if the Oxford vaccine (the most advanced one time-wise) is successful I doubt we will be able to have a mass vaccination scheme until early next year at the earliest.

 

[Yew]

I feel his timeline will e pushed by people deciding that they're done with it, personally, I think my expiry date for taking part in this experiment is around September.

 

[Belperpete]

Depends on how long it takes to develop a vaccine, I guess. Some of the recent reports on this are encouraging.

The press, particularly the papers, forever seem to be talking up the prospects - remember when they were telling us one was just weeks away? Personally, I am not holding my breath. Remember that it is not unusual for a medicine to get as far as full-scale clinical trials, and then get pulled. And recent reports that antibody protection is quite short-lived are not good news for a vaccine, unless we accept getting a fresh jab every three months or so.

 

[Bantamzen]

The press, particularly the papers, forever seem to be talking up the prospects - remember when they were telling us one was just weeks away? Personally, I am not holding my breath. Remember that it is not unusual for a medicine to get as far as full-scale clinical trials, and then get pulled. And recent reports that antibody protection is quite short-lived are not good news for a vaccine, unless we accept getting a fresh jab every three months or so.

Its worth making the point again, but antibodies are not the body's only defence mechanism. And an absence of antibodies does not mean a person is automatically vulnerable, the immune system can have a genetic memory without antibodies being detectible.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Interesting that Boris Johnson has stated social distancing will be in place until at least November.

November is always the significant month for the winter to kick in - drop in temperatures and the reduction in daylight. I do feel that the government are using the summer & autumn months to really maximise reducing the spread of the virus.

Some local businesses near where I live are still enforcing the queueing outside procedures with everyone stood two metres apart like they were doing back in March. As I've said previously, people are still more than happy to follow guidelines and do what's necessary.

Fast forward four months - are people realistically going to stand outside their local bank shivering and stamping their feet to keep their circulation going? I heard an interview recently with an elderly gent on the radio and he stated that if social distancing is prolonged through the winter into 2021 the country could see a spike in Flu related illnesses which of course is a death sentence to the older generation.

Its about finding the right balance. November is also the time when many public places are gearing up for Christmas and of course we see an increase in public activities everywhere, so in theory it would be impossible to enforce social distancing in this period anyway.

CJ

 

[philosopher]

Interesting that Boris Johnson has stated social distancing will be in place until at least November.
CJ

When I heard that it may go in November I did think it sounded quite optimistic based on what I had heard before. My guess is that the government are hoping a vaccine will be approved in the early Autumn and that by November sufficient people will have been vaccinated to allow social distancing to end.

Given the recent postive news about the Oxford vaccine perhaps ending it in November is now considered possible.

 

[Belperpete]

Interesting that Boris Johnson has stated social distancing will be in place until at least November.

November is always the significant month for the winter to kick in - drop in temperatures and the reduction in daylight. I do feel that the government are using the summer & autumn months to really maximise reducing the spread of the virus.

Some local businesses near where I live are still enforcing the queueing outside procedures with everyone stood two metres apart like they were doing back in March. As I've said previously, people are still more than happy to follow guidelines and do what's necessary.

Fast forward four months - are people realistically going to stand outside their local bank shivering and stamping their feet to keep their circulation going? I heard an interview recently with an elderly gent on the radio and he stated that if social distancing is prolonged through the winter into 2021 the country could see a spike in Flu related illnesses which of course is a death sentence to the older generation.

Its about finding the right balance. November is also the time when many public places are gearing up for Christmas and of course we see an increase in public activities everywhere, so in theory it would be impossible to enforce social distancing in this period anyway.

CJ

It is happening all over again. When lockdown was first announced and we were told that it was going to be reviewed after 3weeks, there were no end of people saying we would be back to normal in three weeks. Now that Boris has said that social distancing is going to last at least until November, here come all those saying that means it is ending in November. "at least" means "at the very earliest, if you are lucky....." NOT "at the latest".

 

[Bantamzen]

It is happening all over again. When lockdown was first announced and we were told that it was going to be reviewed after 3weeks, there were no end of people saying we would be back to normal in three weeks. Now that Boris has said that social distancing is going to last at least until November, here come all those saying that means it is ending in November. "at least" means "at the very earliest, if you are lucky....." NOT "at the latest".

Remember back in May when people were grimly predicting a second wave and tighter lockdown within weeks?

 

[Huntergreed]

Surely if cases are very, very low by then as is likely (Scotland and Wales will probably have it eliminated bar 1-2 cases a day from outside), there’s no reason to keep it going.

 

[carlberry]

Fast forward four months - are people realistically going to stand outside their local bank shivering and stamping their feet to keep their circulation going? I heard an interview recently with an elderly gent on the radio and he stated that if social distancing is prolonged through the winter into 2021 the country could see a spike in Flu related illnesses which of course is a death sentence to the older generation.

Flu is spreed in the same way as Covid. Social distancing and hand washing will work just as well to protect against it, plus Flu has a vaccine that works fairly well each year (if the correct predictions have been made) so it's quite possible for this winter to have a low Flu issue if social distancing is still in place.

 

[Mag_seven]

It is happening all over again. When lockdown was first announced and we were told that it was going to be reviewed after 3weeks, there were no end of people saying we would be back to normal in three weeks. Now that Boris has said that social distancing is going to last at least until November, here come all those saying that means it is ending in November. "at least" means "at the very earliest, if you are lucky....." NOT "at the latest".

I think most people understand that November is at the earliest, but at least it sets out the Government policy that they must ultimately end social distancing sometime!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think most people understand that November is at the earliest, but at least it sets out the Government policy that they must ultimately end social distancing sometime!

I would expect them to end it when they can. Some seem to be proposing conspiracy theories, but in reality it's of no benefit to anyone to have it once it's not needed.

 

[Belperpete]

Flu is spreed in the same way as Covid. Social distancing and hand washing will work just as well to protect against it, plus Flu has a vaccine that works fairly well each year (if the correct predictions have been made) so it's quite possible for this winter to have a low Flu issue if social distancing is still in place.

The problem is that many of the symptoms of flu are the same as Covid-19 (they are both covid viruses, after all), so someone with symptoms is likely to have to self-isolate and quarantine themselves, whether they have covid-19 or the flu (or even just a common cold). We were "lucky" in that covid-19 hit here after the flu season had mainly ended. We do really need a testing system that can differentiate between covid and flu and the common cold, QUICKLY and reliably, ideally on the day of taking the test, before the next flu season hits, or there is going to be a lot of lost work time. The current drive-umpteen miles-to-a-test-centre, or wait until a kit is posted out to you and then wait while you post the results back, options are not really good enough. Every town and village of any reasonable size needs to have a testing facility that you can use on the day you first notice the symptoms, and can give you a result the same day.

 

[talldave]

Flu is spreed in the same way as Covid. Social distancing and hand washing will work just as well to protect against it, plus Flu has a vaccine that works fairly well each year (if the correct predictions have been made) so it's quite possible for this winter to have a low Flu issue if social distancing is still in place.

This social distancing rubbish is for Covid and Covid only. Some of us who enjoy our freedom aren't going to tolerate it being casually left in place in case it possibly helps with flu!

 

[Belperpete]

I think most people understand that November is at the earliest, but at least it sets out the Government policy that they must ultimately end social distancing sometime!

I would like to believe you, but based on earlier postings here, I think some people are so desperate for it to end that they are reading more into Boris's statement than he actually said. Or less, as they seem to be ignoring the "at least" and just seeing the "November".

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Remember back in May when people were grimly predicting a second wave and tighter lockdown within weeks?

Pubs/Restaurants only been open two weeks so won't show up for at least another two weeks if this change has caused an upward spike but this time we have local lockdown measures available to manage them so i don't believe a national tighter lockdown is likely only local measures.

 

[Enthusiast]

"Deliveroo" is served by restaurants. If your food is any good, people will order it from there, so in principle it will make you more, not less, custom (and at the moment most of it is full price). If your food is rubbish, well, that's why you're having trouble. And if you didn't do delivery/takeaway during lockdown, well, you were very silly indeed.

The restaurants I am talking about did not cook food that is suitable for delivery. Who would fancy a rare fillet steak, sauté potatoes and fresh vegetables delivered in a cardboard box after spending twenty minutes on the back of a scooter? Or perhaps a grilled Dover Sole or scallops wrapped in bacon, cooked in Pernod followed, by Tiramisu, all brought round in a rucksack on the back of a push-bike? Customers did not go to those restaurants because they are unwilling or unable to cook. They went for the occasion, for good food and drink in convivial surroundings. Yes they could have grilled a few burgers or cooked a pizza or two to be handled by Deliveroo. But they would have made no money from the exercise.

Dismissing the closure of such businesses because they "failed to adapt" is missing the point. They were very successful businesses - not multinationals, not huge concerns but successful nonetheless. They failed because they were forcibly closed and even if they did reopen would have been unlikely to turn a profit working at half capacity because of the "guidance.", no other reason. To say they failed because they did not adapt their business to deliver lukewarm food in cardboard boxes is rather like saying any airline that fails did so because it didn't provide steamships to get their customers to their destinations.

Yet still people are peddling this economic paranoia.

Time will tell whether it was paranoia or simply expressions of well founded concern. Any business forced to close its doors for three months or more will struggle, however well they adapt. Your idea that because the government is able to borrow seemingly limitless sums of money displays a somewhat naïve grasp of economics but from what has been recently announced on the job front in the last couple of days (with undoubtedly far worse to come) it's looking more to me like well founded concern.

 

[yorkie]

We're rapidly approaching the point, if we haven't already reached it, where social distancing is not practised in most situations by most people.

And that's because it effectively is asking us to not be human.

Some people need to accept facts: We are human after all.

 

[MikeWM]

I may be making the fundamental mistake of trying to ascribe logic to anything that this wretched government do - but why November, of all months? Far too late if the virus continues to disappear the way it is currently doing, but too early to make an informed decision on whether winter will deliver an uptick.

 

[carlberry]

The problem is that many of the symptoms of flu are the same as Covid-19 (they are both covid viruses, after all), so someone with symptoms is likely to have to self-isolate and quarantine themselves, whether they have covid-19 or the flu (or even just a common cold). We were "lucky" in that covid-19 hit here after the flu season had mainly ended. We do really need a testing system that can differentiate between covid and flu and the common cold, QUICKLY and reliably, ideally on the day of taking the test, before the next flu season hits, or there is going to be a lot of lost work time. The current drive-umpteen miles-to-a-test-centre, or wait until a kit is posted out to you and then wait while you post the results back, options are not really good enough. Every town and village of any reasonable size needs to have a testing facility that you can use on the day you first notice the symptoms, and can give you a result the same day.

Flu is not a covid virus, flu/Influenza is a seperate family of virus. There already is a test with same day results and next day is fairly common for the test centres. However the provision of testing locations is an issue.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I may be making the fundamental mistake of trying to ascribe logic to anything that this wretched government do - but why November, of all months? Far too late if the virus continues to disappear the way it is currently doing, but too early to make an informed decision on whether winter will deliver an uptick.

It was at least November. There was no commitment, more of a commitment that there's basically no chance of it being before that.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

What I'd be interested to know is why has Boris stated, I guess with optimism, that social distancing could be scrapped by November at the earliest?

Yes it's a few months away but I and so many others can at least feel the slightest bit relieved at last!