How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Journeyman]

I think there would be a lot of kick-back to any idea of a repeat furlough. There’s been a marked change in opinions towards it over time, in places the word is akin to a swear word. I for one would not be prepared to work again whilst others are being paid furlough.

Not all of us on furlough have enjoyed it. I've been bored out of my mind and I'm desperate to work again.

 

[bramling]

Not all of us on furlough have enjoyed it. I've been bored out of my mind and I'm desperate to work again.

I think that’s a good reason not to do it again. I’d be more in favour of keeping places open and if needs be receiving some level of support to make up for reduced custom.

 

[Huntergreed]

Found this video of Chris Whitty talking about the long term mitigations necessary for the pandemic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxEEnAToNfk

In it he says:

Some things which we started right at the beginning, which absolutely have to continue for a prolonged period of time. Washing hands, Isolation, Household Isolation, and then we've added to that things like contact tracing and most recently face coverings, and these are issues of, and issues around distancing which have been varied, but the reality is distancing remains an important part of this mix and how it's interpreted in different environments has evolved but it has not gone away. So all of those need to continue for a long period of time

Sounds like distancing is here to stay for a long while yet according to the Chief Medical Officer.

 

[island]

We're rapidly approaching the point, if we haven't already reached it, where social distancing is not practised in most situations by most people.

And that's because it effectively is asking us to not be human.

Some people need to accept facts: We are human after all.

Whilst I might quibble over whether it is “most” or “a large number of”, nothing really turns on that – what I think is the really damaging impact of the non-compliance with the recommendations is that it breeds frustration amongst those who are following them and see others acting as though the recommendations do not exist. This means that should there be a medical/scientific need to re-implement stricter restrictions, they are unlikely to be followed, and then we may be in trouble.

Could you remind the government?!!!

Social distancing is not and has never been a legal requirement in England.

 

[talldave]

Social distancing is not and has never been a legal requirement in England.

My comment was about reminding the government that we are human. We seem to be getting pushed around like robots.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Found this video of Chris Whitty talking about the long term mitigations necessary for the pandemic.

Sounds like distancing is here to stay for a long while yet according to the Chief Medical Officer.

The three top comments (at time of typing) are quite interesting I thought:

- Face coverings does he mean a veil? I think most people in england are done with this fella
- Masks cause more problems and won't protect the person wearing it - that's what these evil cranks are pushing!
- Face muzzles, it's what the establishment want to do muzzle us literally, and metaphorically. The establishment elites are taking liberties left right and centre....

The Facebook Furloughs and Twitter Lockdown Enthusiasts don't seem to agree here, perhaps the Government should be paying more attention to the comments section on YouTube videos!

 

[yorkie]

Whilst I might quibble over whether it is “most” or “a large number of”, nothing really turns on that – what I think is the really damaging impact of the non-compliance with the recommendations is that it breeds frustration amongst those who are following them and see others acting as though the recommendations do not exist. ...

True, but on my walk/run today not a single person crossed the road or stepped into the road to avoid getting close to me. A few months ago it would have been very different!

I have seen a very small number of people showing frustration at others, but only maybe 2 or 3 occasions ever, out of hundreds if not thousands of interactions, and no incidents recently.

It's also been many weeks since anyone stepped into the road in front of myself or another road user near me without looking.

 

[Class 33]

What I'd be interested to know is why has Boris stated, I guess with optimism, that social distancing could be scrapped by November at the earliest?

Yes it's a few months away but I and so many others can at least feel the slightest bit relieved at last!

This is exactly what he said about this, word for word.....

I think what we're trying to say about the 1 metre rule and social distancing generally is that clearly looking through to the spring, looking through to the long term impact that social distancing will continue to have on the many sectors of the UK economy. What we're saying is we hope that by November at the earliest, if we continue to make progress in our struggle against the virus, it may MAY be conceivably be possible to move away from the social distancing measures from the 1 metre rule and other things by that time. Now that is entirely conditional as I say on our continuity to keep the virus under control.".

Now this does make me feel a little more confident now that the end of social distancing could be on the horizon now, providing the number of new cases and deaths on a 7-day rolling average continue to fall. At the rate things are going now, surely the cases and deaths by November will be incredibly low! I was HOPING social distancing would be completely scrapped by September, or early October at the latest. But this isn't going to happen according to Boris today. But it does give us some hope and relief that by November, these disruptive, hassly and restrictive social distancing measures COULD possibly be finally scrapped altogether. And if so, about bloody time too after what would then be nearly 8 months of this nonsense! I will be absolutely over the moon to see the end of hearing and seeing "Social distancing" and "Socially distanced" absolutely countless times on the news and in shops, train/bus stations, pubs, cafes, etc, etc.

But on the other hand if social distancing does unfortunately continue into sometime next year at the earliest, well this country is going to be in an absolutely HUGE mess. Loads more job cuts in numerous sectors, loads more unemployed, loads more companies closing down, the effect this will have on many people's mental health. It's not going to be pleasant atall.

C'mon, let's continue to get these deaths down much lower. And then hopefully on November 1st we can return to a more normal life!

 

[45107]

But on the other hand if social distancing does unfortunately continue into sometime next year at the earliest, well this country is going to be in an absolutely HUGE mess. Loads more job cuts in numerous sectors, loads more unemployed, loads more companies closing down, the effect this will have on many people's mental health. It's not going to be pleasant atall.

Add in the effects of a no-deal Brexit into the mix.
You think 20% drop in GDP is bad...........

 

[island]

True, but on my walk/run today not a single person crossed the road or stepped into the road to avoid getting close to me. A few months ago it would have been very different!

I have seen a very small number of people showing frustration at others, but only maybe 2 or 3 occasions ever, out of hundreds if not thousands of interactions, and no incidents recently.

It's also been many weeks since anyone stepped into the road in front of myself or another road user near me without looking.

I am glad that behaviour has improved up north. Sadly London, or at least my neck of the woods, has a way to go.

 

[scotrail158713]

The three top comments (at time of typing) are quite interesting I thought:


The Facebook Furloughs and Twitter Lockdown Enthusiasts don't seem to agree here, perhaps the Government should be paying more attention to the comments section on YouTube videos!

That’s very encouraging. It’s reassuring to know that people away from this forum realise reality as well.

 

[Enthusiast]

Social distancing is not and has never been a legal requirement in England.

Indeed not. But local authorities and government departments act as if it is. My local Chinese restaurant had a missive from the LA "advising" him how to rearrange his tables and he was given the impression that he had little choice but to comply. I imagine if he did not they would take action under H&S regulations somehow. It has cost him a third of his income on busy nights for the foreseeable future. Pubs and restaurants have spent a fortune in compliance measures - measures which will restrict their ability to turn a decent profit and I can imagine many of them turning it in if it goes on for too long.

 

[island]

Indeed not. But local authorities and government departments act as if it is. My local Chinese restaurant had a missive from the LA "advising" him how to rearrange his tables and he was given the impression that he had little choice but to comply. I imagine if he did not they would take action under H&S regulations somehow. It has cost him a third of his income on busy nights for the foreseeable future. Pubs and restaurants have spent a fortune in compliance measures - measures which will restrict their ability to turn a decent profit and I can imagine many of them turning it in if it goes on for too long.

As of tomorrow, local authorities gain the legal right to make such advice mandatory (S.I. 2020/750 regulation 4).

 

[MikeWM]

As of tomorrow, local authorities gain the legal right to make such advice mandatory (S.I. 2020/750 regulation 4).

Ugh, just looked through that. Another massive change creating lots of new powers and criminal offenses, presented without debate and without Parliamentary scrutiny, mere hours before they come info effect. At some point, you have to start wondering how this is different from an actual dictatorship...

 

[Enthusiast]

Ugh, just looked through that. Another massive change creating lots of new powers and criminal offenses, presented without debate and without Parliamentary scrutiny, mere hours before they come info effect. At some point, you have to start wondering how this is different from an actual dictatorship...

Ditto. What a nightmare. This effectively means "social distancing" is enforceable by law. I cannot establish what the "specified premises" are to which the regulations apply. I imagine it will certainly be pubs and restaurants but it may extend to shops. This could put Tesco's recent decision to return to near enough normal in jeopardy. Being in the hands of LAs the powers will be rigorously utilised. All the council wallahs currently unable to get into the office will be trained up to make inspections (suitably clad in biological warfare suits, natch) and enforce their interpretation of what constitutes a "serious and imminent threat to public health." What next can we expect?

 

[Pete_uk]

The local authorities are getting some power now!

 

[Bantamzen]

Ditto. What a nightmare. This effectively means "social distancing" is enforceable by law. I cannot establish what the "specified premises" are to which the regulations apply. I imagine it will certainly be pubs and restaurants but it may extend to shops. This could put Tesco's recent decision to return to near enough normal in jeopardy. Being in the hands of LAs the powers will be rigorously utilised. All the council wallahs currently unable to get into the office will be trained up to make inspections (suitably clad in biological warfare suits, natch) and enforce their interpretation of what constitutes a "serious and imminent threat to public health." What next can we expect?

On the flip side of this it will only take a handful of over-zealous council inspectors to annoy enough companies to threaten pulling out of their areas, and public opinion will rapidly turn against those councils and of course all the silly rules & regulations. I rather suspect this is what the government is hoping for in fact.

 

[island]

Ditto. What a nightmare. This effectively means "social distancing" is enforceable by law. I cannot establish what the "specified premises" are to which the regulations apply.

A specified premises is, according to regulation 1, any premises the local authority cares to specify.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The problem is that many of the symptoms of flu are the same as Covid-19 (they are both covid viruses, after all), so someone with symptoms is likely to have to self-isolate and quarantine themselves, whether they have covid-19 or the flu (or even just a common cold). We were "lucky" in that covid-19 hit here after the flu season had mainly ended. We do really need a testing system that can differentiate between covid and flu and the common cold

A cautionary tale.
I know of a colleague who had flu-like symptoms three weekends ago. His wife, his son and daughter (younger than teenagers) all had the same symptoms, so they drove to a test centre and remained home thereafter. The test results all came back negative, and all are recovered from whatever it was they had. My colleague has been back at work for over a week now.
On the morning after the family drove to the test centre, Marek* called his surgery on an unrelated matter, and had a telephone consultation with his GP.
On describing his symptoms, he was told that he most definitely had coronavirus, and he and his family should self-isolate. The GP was stunned when Marek informed him that they'd all been tested, and those tests came back negative.
I have long suspected that some 'coronavirus' cases that, without a confirmatory test, have been recorded as such, were in fact something else, probably 'flu. How many is anyone's guess. I doubt that it is a significant number, but such misdiagnosed cases will still be counted in the official statistics.

What I did NOT expect is for GPs to be so presumptuous as to immediately leap to a diagnosis of coronavirus on such slim grounds.

If seasonal flu comes around this winter - and there is no reason to to assume it will not - there are grounds to fear that many sufferers reporting their symptoms to 119 will be classed as having coronavirus... and, as if by magic... the second wave is, stastically-speaking, upon us

*name changed

 

[Bletchleyite]

The local authorities are getting some power now!

Which quite concerns me because in the UK they don't really have the skills to exercise it properly.

It's the first bit of this that I've been really unhappy about. Leave them managing car parks and leave public health to the national professionals in PHE (and Welsh/Scottish equivalents).

What we'll get now is some Councils following an eradication approach, some a control approach and some nothing.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

This is depressing in the extreme!

Coronavirus: Councils in England get new powers for local shutdowns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53453720

But Prof John Edmunds, a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC a return to pre-lockdown normality was "a long way off".
"If what you mean by normality is what we used to do until February and the middle of March this year - go to work normally, travel on the buses and trains, go on holiday without restrictions, meet friends, shake hands, hug each other and so on - that's a long way off, unfortunately," he told the Today programme.

 

[Mag_seven]

But Prof John Edmunds, a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC a return to pre-lockdown normality was "a long way off".
"If what you mean by normality is what we used to do until February and the middle of March this year - go to work normally, travel on the buses and trains, go on holiday without restrictions, meet friends, shake hands, hug each other and so on - that's a long way off, unfortunately," he told the Today programme.

This is depressing in the extreme!

Well that is just his opinion - I think as time goes on there will be a clamour for a return to normality away from some in the isolated and privileged world of academia.

We need to start looking at the facts as outlined here which show us just how small a threat to most of us that COVID is:

A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19 (14 March 2020)

A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment.

swprs.org

 

[Sleepy]

Saturday night travel into Norwich appears to have ramped up now - some services are reporting unable to maintain any social distancing !! From some of the pictures circulating I've seen under 30s now regard virus risks negilable - even mask wearing appears to be only happening when boarding or alighting with around 40% of passengers over last few days.

 

[yorkie]

Saturday night travel into Norwich appears to have ramped up now - some services are reporting unable to maintain any social distancing !!

Social distancing is merely a guideline "where possible" and it just isn't always possible

From some of the pictures circulating I've seen under 30s now regard virus risks negilable

For them it is negligible.

 

[MikeWM]

Saturday night travel into Norwich appears to have ramped up now - some services are reporting unable to maintain any social distancing !!

Trains to/from Norwich today indeed seem to have very suddenly found a lot of their passengers again.

The EMR I got from Ely to Norwich this afternoon had about 50% seats occupied! First time I’ve seen that on any train since March.

 

[Bletchleyite]

For them it is negligible.

Trouble is if they then go for dinner with their Mum! (This is the issue with the whole thing - people are by and large being asked to be altruistic, and many people don't have that in them).

 

[Richard Scott]

Trouble is if they then go for dinner with their Mum! (This is the issue with the whole thing - people are by and large being asked to be altruistic, and many people don't have that in them).

Who is also likely to find the risk is negligible and that's if they managed to pick it up in the first place which is also highly unlikely. When do we stop this and return to a sensible life? I know plenty of older people who are ignoring all the advice as they're just fed up with it and want to carry on with their lives.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Who is also likely to find the risk is negligible and that's if they managed to pick it up in the first place which is also highly unlikely. When do we stop this and return to a sensible life? I know plenty of older people who are ignoring all the advice as they're just fed up with it and want to carry on with their lives.

I must admit, playing devil's advocate to my own views, that I've heard a number of times a view that "if it gets me it gets me", and shielding is optional for that sort of reason. FWIW I would be unlikely to shield, I'd just be careful.

 

[takno]

Saturday night travel into Norwich appears to have ramped up now - some services are reporting unable to maintain any social distancing !! From some of the pictures circulating I've seen under 30s now regard virus risks negilable - even mask wearing appears to be only happening when boarding or alighting with around 40% of passengers over last few days.

Funnily enough a bunch of European countries which do mandate masks on public transport only do so when out of your assigned seat. It's a much more manageable policy, and still provides the vast majority of any benefit that masks convey anyway.

 

[Enthusiast]

Trouble is if they then go for dinner with their Mum! (This is the issue with the whole thing - people are by and large being asked to be altruistic, and many people don't have that in them).

The point is, you cannot expect those not at risk of serious consequences to hide themselves away or behave abnormally for a prolonged period to be altruistic to the people who may be at a greater risk. It's not fair on the people not at risk and it's not fair to the people who rely on the economy ticking over normally.

Just been out for our second Saturday night dinner. One of the bigger chains but a favourite pub/restaurant of ours and one where we are on particularly good terms with the the manageress and her staff. Was great to see her again after four months or thereabouts. The pub was a little more "spread out" than pre-lockdown but with more tables in the large patio garden. Only noticeable differences otherwise were serving staff wearing visors and cutlery delivered with meals instead of tables being pre-laid. Booking (even for just a drink) was recommended and I'm pleased to say the place was as full as it could be. Buses each way were lightly loaded but face coverings were near enough 100%. The fillet steak was superb!

This establishment will survive as it is at least so long as the weather holds (the garden provided a good few extra covers). What happens in the autumn is anybody's guess.