How optimistic are you about the medium term?

[tbtc]

We know that electrification is happening in a number of new areas (Cardiff, Bristol, Blackpool, Bolton etc).

We know that huge sums of money are being spent on Crossrail and Thameslink, which will help other areas (trickle down theory doesn't seem to work in economics, but it is used a lot on railways...)

There are strong rumours about other improvements (which haven't been officially announced yet), like electrification of Chester - Crewe.

We have recently found out about new EMUs for LM, Southern and TPE, as well as speculation about pantographs for XC Voyagers.

There are tough tests ahead (how will franchises cope with passenger demand through a stagnating economy, how will the coalition tender franchises, how will Pacers be replaced).

But at the moment I'm feeling fairly optimistic about the next ten years - things are finally being seen as priorities that had stagnated for some time.

Is it just me who is feeling strangely positive about the future (of railways)?

 

[SS4]

I'm not optimistic. Largely because I'm a cynical git

It all looks good on paper but then communism looks good on paper (ty Homer Simpson)

 

[Cherry_Picker]

Passenger numbers are up at their highest levels in living memory. Its a good time.

 

[WatcherZero]

Im optimistic about the next five years, what happens after that we will have to see with the next rail settlement. A lot of the stuff happening at the moment (e.g. non Southern carriages, electrification, etc) were started 3 years or so ago and just delayed by financial crisis.

 

[Bedpan]

Fairly optimistic, I think that the government are going to have to spend to prevent the economy from stagnating and stop unemployment rising too high, and I can see the railways benefitting from this with the anouncement of more improvement schemes. I also think that work will be found for Bombardier to make up for the loss of the Thameslink units. I can't see that any capital will be forthcoming to finance any reopenings of closed routes and suchlike though, which might have happened if there was spare money to spend.

 

[thefab444]

Locally I am not feeling particularly optimistic. The current SWT franchise lasts until 2017 and I don't believe we are due any timetable changes or to get any more stock.

 

[NightatLaira]

I'm fairly optimistic - much like the OP. I think things are finally starting to move on the railways. Compare this to the previous by and large stagnations of the railways in the past decade...

 

[Harlesden]

Passenger numbers are up at their highest levels in living memory. Its a good time.

Is it reasonable to assume that "in living memory" does not cover pre-Beeching days

 

[IanXC]

Is it reasonable to assume that "in living memory" does not cover pre-Beeching days

Aren't passenger numbers the highest since the late 1940s?

 

[tbtc]

I'm fairly optimistic - much like the OP. I think things are finally starting to move on the railways. Compare this to the previous by and large stagnations of the railways in the past decade...

Yeah, its only now that things are starting to happen again that I realise how much stagnation there has been since Hatfield, nobody taking risks, nobody investing beyond painting the new TOC logos on a few things.

Things are starting to pick up again.

 

[Schnellzug]

Well, for a start, i'm not one of those who thinks that throwing vast amounts of money at something is necessarily the way to a brighter tomorrow, and that huge major projects rarely seem to be the solution to all shortcomings that people liek to advertise them as, but on the whole, I think that even without all that, rail travel does seem to be more popular than it has been for a long time, and i don't think that's a bad thing. Of course, there's far too much Political interference in terms of timetables, fares, rolling stock etc, but I always say that what's decided by Politicians can very quickly be overturned, and in the long term view any Political interference is just a passing and transient irritation. Like Politicians themselves really.*

I don't believe we are due any timetable changes or to get any more stock.

If it's not broke...? The current timetable, i think, certainly down this end of the line, gives more trains than at any time in BR Days or before. "More stock" would always be useful to alleviate crowding, to be sure, but people are always saying () that the South gets all the priority, so I don't suppose it would be realistic to expect the Government to always throw more money at everything. Doubling and/or Electrification of Salisbury-Exeter would be useful, though...

* Although perhaps one contributory factor to the increasing popularity is thanks to a Politician, or an ex-Politician, Mr. Portillo ... ?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
** Further to the above, it may be instructive to take a glance at the situation in some other countries, including ones in which the blissful situation exists of the railways all being under common, state ownership. It's not all guns 'n' roses there...look, for instance, at SNCF Fret, or the current state of Greek railways.

 

[thefab444]

If it's not broke...? The current timetable, i think, certainly down this end of the line, gives more trains than at any time in BR Days or before.

Well, the service level at all the intermediate stations between Totton and Parkstone except Brockenhurst and Bournemouth isn't really good enough. In many cases the trains are either 10 minutes apart, or get overtaken, or are only hourly anyway. If you look at the summer 2003 timetable: Totton got 3 trains per hour (now 1!), places like New Milton, Christchurch and Branksome got 2 trains per hour to London in both directions instead of 1 in one direction and 2 in the other, Southampton got 4 trains per hour to London instead of 3 in one direction and 2 in the other, and there were still 2 trains per hour between Waterloo and Wareham. Recent timetable changes only really benefit people in Dorchester and Weymouth who get an improved level of service and marginally faster journeys at the expense of everyone else.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

Is it reasonable to assume that "in living memory" does not cover pre-Beeching days

Passengers numbers are the highest now since the 1920s.

 

[Schnellzug]

Well, the service level at all the intermediate stations between Totton and Parkstone except Brockenhurst and Bournemouth isn't really good enough. In many cases the trains are either 10 minutes apart, or get overtaken, or are only hourly anyway. If you look at the summer 2003 timetable: Totton got 3 trains per hour (now 1!), places like New Milton, Christchurch and Branksome got 2 trains per hour to London in both directions instead of 1 in one direction and 2 in the other, Southampton got 4 trains per hour to London instead of 3 in one direction and 2 in the other, and there were still 2 trains per hour between Waterloo and Wareham. Recent timetable changes only really benefit people in Dorchester and Weymouth who get an improved level of service and marginally faster journeys at the expense of everyone else.

1 in one direction & 2 in the other? From what i make of it, Branksome has up trains @ 48, plus the stopper @ 57, (and no one would use that to go all the way to London, surely), and down at 29 and the Poole stopper @ 48, Christchurch 30 up and 52 down and the stopper at 13 up & 34 down. I don't know of anywhere that's got an asymmetric service to that extent. And perhaps 3 trains an hour for Totton were not really necessary?

 

[thefab444]

One train is overtaken by the other, so there is effectively only one train per hour to/from stations north of Southampton. For example, Branksome and Parkstone have two trains an hour to Waterloo, though they do leave 10 minutes apart, but only one train an hour from Waterloo - the xx39 stopper is overtaken by the xx35 fast at Brockenhurst. It's the opposite for New Milton, Christchurch and Pokesdown - one train an hour to Waterloo but two trains an hour from Waterloo. Apart from local journeys around Bournemouth, the service is pretty poor, for example, the two trains from New Milton to Southampton arrive about 7 minutes apart.

Totton does need at least two trains per hour - it gets practically the same number of passengers as Pokesdown, and more than Branksome, Parkstone or Hamworthy, yet gets half the service.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I am more optimistic now since The Northern Hub proposals were published.

The Lancashire Triangle electrification is a definite move forward.

 

[exile]

Pessimistic. Though passenger numbers are indeed high the costs of running the system are still running far ahead of revenue. This means the government is in charge of the purse strings and will be looking for ways of cutting costs along the line of McNulty (focusing on staff salaries and conditions, reducing staffing levels on stations and trains).

 

[ivanhoe]

I think we are in for more of what we have now. Lots of spin about how much they are investing when in reality it is the same that has been reported for the last 5 years.

We need to look at costs but I'm not talking about wages and conditions of front line staff. It's the structural costs of what the railway has to operate within. I also have concerns about the Network Rail Debt .

This is not a plea to return to the previous BR system (although I would not be opposed to that) but a look at how much the current franchise system costs and a debate about sensible reform. Too many politicians would rather keep the current system to save face.

 

[IanXC]

Pessimistic. Though passenger numbers are indeed high the costs of running the system are still running far ahead of revenue. This means the government is in charge of the purse strings and will be looking for ways of cutting costs along the line of McNulty (focusing on staff salaries and conditions, reducing staffing levels on stations and trains).

I think the industry at this time has a massive opportunity to grow revenue ahead of costs. In many ways the services which are most profitable (ex NSE and Intercity) operate longer trains and yet do not have proportionally higher staffing levels. If more routes can be grown to this level, potentially both by costs of other forms of travel increasing faster than Rail, but also potentially by demand management and making more use of available capacity, then revenue can be grown, which so long as costs are held flat will achieve the cost improvements needed.

 

[swt_passenger]

Locally I am not feeling particularly optimistic. The current SWT franchise lasts until 2017 and I don't believe we are due any timetable changes or to get any more stock.

There will be additional stock to deal with 10 car suburban services, about 100 vehicles.

As an optimist, I think it must be happening otherwise NR wouldn't be spending money extending platforms for them...

 

[thefab444]

I'm struggling to get optimistic about stock changes that will probably degenerate into an utter farce (and won't affect SWT services I use), unless sense is seen and the 450 extension option is taken up!

 

[87015]

As an optimist, I think it must be happening otherwise NR wouldn't be spending money extending platforms for them...

You mean like the Tilbury loop platform extensions currently taking place, with no extra stock on the horizon (HLOS 321 plan was binned long ago) and no plans to run 12s round there?

 

[Drsatan]

I'm not especially optimistic about the future of the railways since current government planning doesn't seem to allow for passenger growth outside of London and non-PTE areas. For instance, in Bristol, aside from the proposal to reopen the Portishead branch, which appears to be on ice, there's no plan to allow for the fact that trains around the local area will steadily become busier, and that more people will use public transport due to the steady increase in fuel duty. Similarly, in Exeter, the Exmouth branch is the busiest in the West Country (and according to a recent article in RAIL), yet there seems to be no plan for investment and growth, other than the possibility an additional passing loop might be installed near Topsham to allow for four trains an hour there.

 

[shinkansen1966]

In my opinion the test will be:

How many franchises will come up for renewal during the lifetime (2010-2015) of the current Coalition ?

And of these, how many will be renewed for a least 15 or more years ? The government gets one point if it renews for 15+ years, but a point deducted , if it renews for less than 2 years. What's the points total look like at the moment ? And in 2015 ?

 

[Get-Pulled-Off]

Overall I'm not particularly optmistic. I actually find it slightly depressing that whilst passenger numbers are high, and with a demand for intermodal freight the industry as a whole still can't get to grips with it's costs. Right now we are being massively subsidised by huge sections of society who make no use of the railway at all and who get a raw deal on the amount of investment in the roads(and that includes bus users). 90% of internal journies are made my road and only 8% by railway.

Most of the problems come down, of course, to the model of privatisation that creates such massive duplication of departments and ridiculous contractual arguments. I'm also concerned about the current governance and accountability of Network Rail. It doesn't seem to be working but nor does any polical party seem to have the will to implement radical reform of the railway.

 

[shinkansen1966]

I'm also concerned about the current governance and accountability of Network Rail.

Indeed. Exactly what is the legal status of Network Rail. Is it state owned, a government agency, a QUANGO, a private company, trade association ? What ??

nor does any polical party seem to have the will to implement radical reform of the railway.

How many transport ministers have we had since the railways were privatised back in 1995 ?

 

[Jordeh]

How many transport ministers have we had since the railways were privatised back in 1995 ?

Ten.
Brian Mawhinney
George Young
John Prescott
Stephen Byers
Alistair Darling
Douglas Alexander
Ruth Kelly
Geoff Hoon
Lord Adonis
Philip Hammond

And that's assuming you count John Prescott in his "super" department for Environment, Transport and the Regions. You could easily count that as four people instead who were responsible for Transport in this department at various points.
Gavin Strang
John Reid
Helen Liddell
Lord Macdonald

10 or 14 people incharge of transport in 4 different governments from 1995-2011. Alistair Darling stuck at it for considerably longer than everybody else (Almost 4 years).

 

[shinkansen1966]

10 or 14 people incharge of transport in 4 different governments from 1995-2011.

Is this help or a hindrance to long term planning ?