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HS2 delayed again?

Grimsby town

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Tens of billions of pounds of public money has been spent to avoid giving Aylesbury at station. And certainly any extension of HS2 beyond Crewe has been pushed back into the long grass because of the absolute nonsense of not giving mid sized places like Aylesbury and Leamington Spa access to HS2.
It's naive to think that people a station would solve all opposition against HS2. Cheshire has a lot of opposition to HS2, including MP Esther McVey, despite the areas being close to the Manchester Airport station and places like Knutsford benefiting from released capacity. A lot of people in smaller rural towns don't use rail very often so don't see much benefit to themselves. A lot of the cost increases aren't NIMBY related either.
 
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MatthewHutton

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I'd love to know how you came up with those causal links.
It's naive to think that people a station would solve all opposition against HS2.
You wouldn’t remove all opposition to HS2 in Buckinghamshire by adding a station. However you would lower the opposition from the current ~95% level to something more manageable.

And without the 95% opposition you could undoubtedly have reduced the expensive tunnelling and other mitigations. There’s also the delays.

All the local officials and elected representatives have massive incentive from the local voters to make the construction of HS2 as expensive as possible and to make a huge fuss about everything. That only happens because there are virtually zero benefits to local people.

Questions do have to be asked as to why every other high speed line is making intermediate stops at smaller places. And that is still happening on the newest lines such as Shin Omura on the Nagasaki Shinkansen or Awaraonsen Station on the Hokuriku Shinkansen or the connections to Angoulême on the Sud Europe Atlantique LGV.

EDIT: Even the ultra fast Chuo Shinkansen has stops at cities of 50k and 80k planned in.

Well said. Isn’t the whole point to remove tge expresses from the existing network, thereby freeing those slots for more regional services. It would be better for places like Aylesbury to have twice as many conventional trains, going all sorts of places, than one high speed train per hour.
Aylesbury has no rail connectivity to the north at the moment.

and places like Knutsford benefiting from released capacity.
Is there any evidence to back this up?

I.e has a working timetable showing trains per hour that includes extra service to Knutsford in particular?
 
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Technologist

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Perhaps Bucks County councillors should be personally charged the increased costs. I suspect some councillors still think if they object to everything the project will be cancelled... :rolleyes:
Because it did, just not the bit near them, see phase 2. It’s a national chilling effect.
 

MatthewHutton

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Because it did, just not the bit near them, see phase 2. It’s a national chilling effect.
And actually if the obvious quid-pro-quo of a station had been agreed then the rest of the project would have gone ahead. So really the national government and rail industry got outplayed by a bunch of local councillors.
 

Nottingham59

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All the local officials and elected representatives have massive incentive from the local voters to make the construction of HS2 as expensive as possible and to make a huge fuss about everything. That only happens because there are virtually zero benefits to local people.

Perhaps Bucks County councillors should be personally charged the increased costs. I suspect some councillors still think if they object to everything the project will be cancelled... :rolleyes:
It's not just councillors. A project like HS2 gives MPs a zero cost opportunity to show how hard they are fighting for their constituents. Like Michael Fabricant, who forced a hugely expensive redesign at Lichfield; Graham Brady who killed of the Golborne link; and the one at Crewe who was on the Transport select committee.
 

MatthewHutton

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It's not just councillors. A project like HS2 gives MPs a zero cost opportunity to show how hard they are fighting for their constituents. Like Michael Fabricant, who forced a hugely expensive redesign at Lichfield; Graham Brady who killed of the Golborne link; and the one at Crewe who was on the Transport select committee.
The sky truly wouldn’t have fallen to add a station for Leamington Spa, Aylesbury, the Trent Valley and Stoke on Trent.
 

The Mercian

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It's naive to think that people a station would solve all opposition against HS2. Cheshire has a lot of opposition to HS2, including MP Esther McVey, despite the areas being close to the Manchester Airport station and places like Knutsford benefiting from released capacity. A lot of people in smaller rural towns don't use rail very often so don't see much benefit to themselves. A lot of the cost increases aren't NIMBY related either.
Mid Cheshire Line benefits are solely reliant on platform capacity at Picc, the main benefit would be on Man-Crewe and Man-Stoke in Cheshire terms.
The sky truly wouldn’t have fallen to add a station for Leamington Spa, Aylesbury, the Trent Valley and Stoke on Trent.
At current HS2 prices you’ve just added £4bn to the cost. Politically there may have been a case for adding a Bucks Parkway station but looks like the MPs and Councillors chose the anti route rather than looking for a compromise.
 

FMerrymon

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How do you work that out? If I assume journey times to Marylebone and Paddington via Old Oak Common are the same then the time to the Regent street Apple Store is 8 minutes on the Elizabeth line and 11 on the Bakerloo from Marylebone.

Would be 8mins sooner arriving in ooc than Marylebone. 9mins to bond street from ooc. 6mins to Oxford Circus via MYB. From Aylesbury via PR you might save a few mins more.

Also none of this will benefit the via Amersham trains from Aylesbury as the Northolt-Old Oak Common line splits off before then. Additionally I am also assuming that that line will get a speed upgrade to match the line into Marylebone - I.e that you can do Northolt-Old Oak Common in 10 minutes vs 15 for Northolt-Marylebone.

The suggested service pattern, as shown in the document I shared, would be 3 tph into MYB and 2 tph into ooc, so more seats available via Amersham.

Heathrow would be quicker yes - although for High Wycombe you could get the bus and taxis are cheap and would be even faster for Haddenham and other places further south. For the other places in the South West yes journeys would be quicker but only if they aren’t quicker via Oxford.

Via Oxford involves multiple changes, so even via Oxford it's going to be quicker. Aylesbury-Exeter works out at about 50mins+ quicker. Would be around 3hrs rather than 4.

Unless you're travelling from High Wycombe, staying on to ooc and changing there would likely be the better option. For Aylesbury, the Heathrow connection would be much better than now.

Agricultural land costs in Britain aren’t that high to make a meaningful difference for a rail project on cost so there is no excuse there.

Land prices are still a factor, but not the only one. The point is construction costs are higher in the UK for a variety of reasons and the cost of hs2 would not be significantly cheaper if slower due to that. In the first hs2 whitepaper from 2010, it suggests construction costs in general can be double what they are in France for the equivalent. It's something the government should have been looking into especially given what they were intending to build.

You wouldn’t remove all opposition to HS2 in Buckinghamshire by adding a station. However you would lower the opposition from the current ~95% level to something more manageable.

This supposes that the opposition to the line near Aylesbury is responsible for both costs and getting it cancelled, but this is not correct. There have been some pretty rich Camden nimbys funding some of the campaign, see WTM_HS2 at the moment and Michael Byng was originally employed by a Camden resident.

There aren't really any avoidable structures in the Aylesbury area that have added to costs due to local opposition. The sections north of Aylesbury are some of the cheapest miles.

Building a station in Aylesbury would have not prevented the multitude of misinformation about this project, would not have changed the rhetoric of think tanks such as the TPA, nor would it have prevented the Uxbridge by-election result and Rishi's concentration on roads instead. It would have increased costs, reduced value.

Aylesbury has no rail connectivity to the north at the moment.

No, but the line north of Aylesbury Vale is being replaced at higher standards for passenger operation and, north of Calvert, the earth works and structures are being built to accommodate the EWR line to Winslow. That would give excellent local connectivity and connections north and east. Meanwhile, a direct ooc service from Aylesbury would knock 90mins off the current travel time to Manchester and other northern destinations.

How many people in the area would be aware that that would be the case? Is the local mp and council pushing for these benefits of hs2 or just moaning? Perhaps they could have got a guarantee it would be built as at the moment, its not certain.

The sky truly wouldn’t have fallen to add a station for Leamington Spa, Aylesbury, the Trent Valley and Stoke on Trent.

Leamington Spa benefits from the increased capacity into Birmingham and was proposed that the line through Kenilworth would be doubled, since Coventry could handle more. That's all in the west Midlands long term plan.

Trent valley would substantially benefit from hs2, likely up from 1 off peak train an hour to 4, increasing local connectivity as well as connectivity to London and Crewe. Now unlikely to happen without phase 2a.

Stoke and Stafford would have been directly served by hs2 and that may still be the case post phase2a cancellation. The previous Stoke MP who was on the TSC seemed unaware of this.
 
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I think that no matter how much logic is presented to someone they're always going to have a bee in their bonnet over the fact that their town isn't getting a stop on HS2. Despite how much that would screw up HS2.

I don't think they've even thought about the time and capacity penalties of accelerating/decelerating to/from 400kph so soon after OOC for Aylesbury.
 

eldomtom2

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Cost per km is a poor comparison. Many builds don't include stations in their costs and most won't have rolling stock costs or depots.
The Transit Costs Project, from which the data in question comes from, explicitly states that stations are included:
The cost data in our HSR database is for civil infrastructure, systems, stations, and overheads, but not rolling stock or financing charges.
 

FMerrymon

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Have the costs of construction at that level of detail been published anywhere, please?

Its in a report about the infamous bat tunnel. A km of that section apparently costs 73million (2019 prices). I'll try and find the report. There isn't so much to do along those bits, plus the land on that particular section was already owned.
 

MatthewHutton

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Would be 8mins sooner arriving in ooc than Marylebone. 9mins to bond street from ooc. 6mins to Oxford Circus via MYB. From Aylesbury via PR you might save a few mins more.
So you are saying you can do the 10 miles from Northolt Junction to OOC in 7 minutes including stopping when at full speed of 100mph without padding it would be 6 minutes. That seems pretty damn optimistic especially at a terminal station.

Then beyond that there is 5 minutes to get to Paddington and then additional time to get to the surface to any real destinations from the Elizabeth line platforms as they are deeper which google/Apple Maps take into account and which I checked. You are also assuming the connection at Old Oak Common is as quick as Marylebone which is unlikely.
Via Oxford involves multiple changes, so even via Oxford it's going to be quicker. Aylesbury-Exeter works out at about 50mins+ quicker. Would be around 3hrs rather than 4.

Unless you're travelling from High Wycombe, staying on to ooc and changing there would likely be the better option. For Aylesbury, the Heathrow connection would be much better than now.
Aylesbury to Heathrow is 50 minutes by taxi and costs less than £70 each way.

Aylesbury-Exeter will be quicker true. But some of that is a timetable fiction because the official change time is shorter.

There is also still the question of whether people will continue to drive to the south west given the high fares.
No, but the line north of Aylesbury Vale is being replaced at higher standards for passenger operation and, north of Calvert,
This hasn’t been communicated with the public at all if true. And no services are being promised.

I think that no matter how much logic is presented to someone they're always going to have a bee in their bonnet over the fact that their town isn't getting a stop on HS2. Despite how much that would screw up HS2.

I don't think they've even thought about the time and capacity penalties of accelerating/decelerating to/from 400kph so soon after OOC for Aylesbury.
The time penalty rule of thumb away from a terminus is one minute per 100km/h of speed plus dwell. Late model Shinkansen trains meet this.

With proper platform markings as in Japan/Taiwan and encouragement to wait by the doors for the trains arrival at a smaller station I am sure a one or one and a half minute dwell would be sufficient.

Plus don’t forget HS2 is supposed to be about capacity not speed.

At current HS2 prices you’ve just added £4bn to the cost. Politically there may have been a case for adding a Bucks Parkway station but looks like the MPs and Councillors chose the anti route rather than looking for a compromise.
I am pretty sure they tried first for the compromise and were rebuffed.

Also a rural station with 400m platforms should maybe cost £20m. At HS2 costs it’s difficult to believe it would be more than £100m.

Building a station in Aylesbury would have not prevented the multitude of misinformation about this project, would not have changed the rhetoric of think tanks such as the TPA, nor would it have prevented the Uxbridge by-election result and Rishi's concentration on roads instead. It would have increased costs, reduced value.
Giving Buckinghamshire an HS2 stop at Aylesbury or Calvert to connect with East-West rail 100% would have massively reduced the opposition by local people in Buckinghamshire. The think tanks really aren’t that important.
 
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FMerrymon

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The Transit Costs Project, from which the data in question comes from, explicitly states that stations are included:

It might explicitly state, but no stations were built for Sud-Europe-Atlantique, so no station included in costs. Same with other lines where they don't need to build a new line into a city or into a new terminus within the capital. They're not comparable.

Their inflation index is questionable too.

So you are saying you can do the 10 miles from Northolt Junction to OOC in 7 minutes including stopping when at full speed of 100mph without padding it would be 6 minutes. That seems pretty damn optimistic especially at a terminal station.

6.5miles, not 10miles, and therefore an average of 50mph would do it in 7min48

Then beyond that there is 5 minutes to get to Paddington and then additional time to get to the surface to any real destinations from the Elizabeth line platforms as they are deeper which google/Apple Maps take into account and which I checked. You are also assuming the connection at Old Oak Common is as quick as Marylebone which is unlikely.

Why would you go to Paddington? Elizabeth line with stop at Ooc and to bond street will be 9mins. The connection should be swift since the space for the Chiltern platforms is right next to the platforms for the Elizabeth line at Ooc.
 
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FMerrymon

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Aylesbury to Heathrow is 50 minutes by taxi and costs less than £70 each way.

Aylesbury-Exeter will be quicker true. But some of that is a timetable fiction because the official change time is shorter.

There is also still the question of whether people will continue to drive to the south west given the high fares

A single for Exeter from Aylesbury can be had for £48 so if people can afford a taxi to Heathrow, they can afford a train to Exeter.

Would you care to clarify: "But some of that is a timetable fiction because the official change time is shorter."

This hasn’t been communicated with the public at all if true. And no services are being promised.

Sort of my point. How many in Aylesbury know about the benefits to the town from hs2? It has been communicated, for example https://www.buckinghamshirelive.com/news/buckinghamshire-news/east-west-rail-aylesbury-spur-8473514

hs2 are relaying the freight line to Calvert Waste facility as they are using the same alignment. This is why the bat tunnel will be covering 4 tracks as it is being built with passive provision to make the conventional connection double track. Hs2 have built the earthworks further north including for the spur onto ewr. Without hs2 releasing capacity on wcml, it woouldnt be to run on into MK and perhaps Northampton.

Coupled with hs2 providing passive provision at Ooc including a wider bridge over old oak common lane, leads to this plan being much more doable https://eastwestrail.org.uk/wp-cont...he-Case-for-Northampton-to-Old-Oak-Common.pdf

Yes, you're right it's not promised, but I mentioned that before as what local politicians should have fought for.

With that connectivity, it's difficult to think of a rail journey that wouldn't be improved from Aylesbury.

Giving Buckinghamshire an HS2 stop at Aylesbury or Calvert to connect with East-West rail 100% would have massively reduced the opposition by local people in Buckinghamshire. The think tanks really aren’t that important.

Aylesbury isn't the only place in Bucks, opposition is throughout the length of the line. The amount of homes such a station would encourage would irritate the nimbys further. Too much has been made of opposition in the Chilterns, deflecting away from opposition and funding for anti campaigns from elsewhere.

It was a "report" from Policy Exchange that is said have inspired Rishi to cancel. Think tanks such as the IEA and TPA have actively spread misinformation that was repeated in the press and affected public opinion.
 
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Grimsby town

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You wouldn’t remove all opposition to HS2 in Buckinghamshire by adding a station. However you would lower the opposition from the current ~95% level to something more manageable.

And without the 95% opposition you could undoubtedly have reduced the expensive tunnelling and other mitigations. There’s also the delays.

All the local officials and elected representatives have massive incentive from the local voters to make the construction of HS2 as expensive as possible and to make a huge fuss about everything. That only happens because there are virtually zero benefits to local people.

But as I've pointed out, other areas that have stations within the area or close by still have vocal opposition. The previous Congleton, Stoke MPs were against it for example. Zara Sultana in Coventry is against it too. Plenty of other examples including Kier Starmer where the constituency benefits but politicians and local groups are against HS2.

Is there any evidence to back this up?

I.e has a working timetable showing trains per hour that includes extra service to Knutsford in particular?

The HS2 model reports (p54) include an additional Knutsford service. Its all indicative but its shows its fairly likely to happen.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-planet-framework-model-version-10a-assumptions
 

MatthewHutton

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But as I've pointed out, other areas that have stations within the area or close by still have vocal opposition. The previous Congleton, Stoke MPs were against it for example. Zara Sultana in Coventry is against it too. Plenty of other examples including Kier Starmer where the constituency benefits but politicians and local groups are against HS2.
Coventry is Britains 10th largest city. It is hardly unreasonable for it to have a station. Stoke the same. And yes Conventry isn’t far from Birmingham interchange but that only gets a handful of services - less than half for sure and certainly not all.

Both would attract Hikari style service at the very least in other countries with high speed rail and would have high speed trains going in both directions.

And yes some of the other places do get more benefits than zero like Aylesbury, but they are much weaker than having 30 minute Kodama service.
 

Grimsby town

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Coventry is Britains 10th largest city. It is hardly unreasonable for it to have a station. Stoke the same. And yes Conventry isn’t far from Birmingham interchange but that only gets a handful of services - less than half for sure and certainly not all.

Both would attract Hikari style service at the very least in other countries with high speed rail and would have high speed trains going in both directions.

And yes some of the other places do get more benefits than zero like Aylesbury, but they are much weaker than having 30 minute Kodama service.
Interchange will have a better service than every 30 minutes (5 trains per hour) and still there's a huge amount of complaining. Water Orton is a massive example that more stations won't achieve much. It's a village sandwiched between motorway infrastructure, so hardly beautiful quiet countryside. It's only 10 minutes from Interchange Station, yet the local residents hate HS2 and see no benefit from it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-67004444

"Who was going to benefit from it? Who would have been able to afford it? Who wanted to get to London that much quicker?"

Long Eaton was also massively anti-HS2 despite it benefiting massively from HS2 and massively improving regional connectivity and not just acting as fast service to London. Why would the places you propose to serve be different? NIMBYism is incredibly ingrained in the UK.
 

The Mercian

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And presumably paths through Stockport
Apologies, yes that was my other thought after I’d posted. Of course if they ever built the McR Airport Western Link from Mobberley/Ashley this would be moot.

I really want to know how they got everything else built, as everyone living remotely near HS2 seems to be a NIMBY for it.
Everyone’s a NIMBY until it’s built and working then everyone forgets what they were moaning about as whatever it is just becomes part of the furniture.
 
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InTheEastMids

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A bit off-topic in that this article is talking about a bit of HS2 that has been cancelled rather than delays.

Councils in North-West Leicestershire are annoyed that land acquired or safeguarded for HS2 is acting as a barrier towards further development in the area, with different villages (see link)
HS2 was supposed to go along the A42 corridor through NW Leics from Appleby Magna to East Midlands Parkway.


So I would make the suggestion that it's actually On Topic for this thread because the lethargy to sell acquired land and remove safeguarding does suggest a project that is on "indefinite hiatus" rather than fully cancelled. To me, it's foolish to let Barratts build houses on the alignment if you think you might want it (even if not built for 20+ years, or built as conventional speed line). Doing otherwise just further bakes in inadequate infrastructure for 100 years or more.
 

MatthewHutton

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I really want to know how they got everything else built, as everyone living remotely near HS2 seems to be a NIMBY for it.
Because other projects typically do in fact benefit local people as well as the national interest.

Long Eaton was also massively anti-HS2 despite it benefiting massively from HS2
Did we get to the point where regular Leeds/Newcastle HS2 trains were stopping at Long Eaton?
Interchange will have a better service than every 30 minutes (5 trains per hour) and still there's a huge amount of complaining. Water Orton is a massive example that more stations won't achieve much. It's a village sandwiched between motorway infrastructure, so hardly beautiful quiet countryside. It's only 10 minutes from Interchange Station, yet the local residents hate HS2 and see no benefit from it.
5 trains per hour per direction, so good links to London. But in the northerly direction you get 2 which go to Birmingham and 1 to Manchester and 1 to Glasgow which you already have (but admittedly the new services will be faster) and 1 new service to Liverpool?

Also in Japan/Taiwan/Germany you would be seeing all trains stop at “Shin Birmingham” and in all of our European neighbours there would be direct high speed service into Coventry itself running to a multitude of destinations.
 
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Krokodil

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Did we get to the point where regular Leeds/Newcastle HS2 trains were stopping at Long Eaton?
It would be a bit difficult when they haven't built the line. 2tph to Sheffield, 2tph to York and 3tph to Leeds. Newcastle trains would have skipped the station however.
 

MatthewHutton

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It would be a bit difficult when they haven't built the line. 2tph to Sheffield, 2tph to York and 3tph to Leeds. Newcastle trains would have skipped the station however.
It’s difficult to believe that in all of our peer countries that you wouldn’t have a situation where at least some of the Newcastle trains would stop.

Also if you were providing an out of town station it would be expected to provide frequent connecting service to the other local stations. Likely given how fast our classic trains are that would go every 15 minutes or more.

The HS2 model reports (p54) include an additional Knutsford service. Its all indicative but its shows its fairly likely to happen.
I mean to be fair that is an extremely technical document so people may simply not know. There’s a difference between “I have been on the Shinkansen and know the Kodama trains stop a lot” and “I can read an internal government report that only uses the three letter station codes”
 
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