HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Wolfie]

An ecovillage around it would be a great idea.

Given Sunak's recent announcements a fossil fuel village is more likely.....

 

[The Planner]

I live in Northamptonshire and I'm actually not that far away from Brackley where HS2 Phase 1 is passing.

I have seen my local MP, Andrea Leadsom has called for Brackley to get a station on the line, which I think makes absolute sense, it would be a massively welcome, especially when the Formula 1 is on at Silverstone, we get something like 500,000 people come every year for it, and so getting a station built at Brackley would be sensible.

Interestingly, a lot of the local community seem supportive of the idea. https://www.facebook.com/andrealead...5&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic&ref=notif

I thought Leadsom was vehemently against HS2? a station that knackers capacity for 1 event a year is daft.

 

[12LDA28C]

Apologies if this has been floated already - now that government seem to be restricting the capacity of HS2-as-was by cutting the size of Euston, is it worth revisiting the idea of an interchange station with EWR at Claydon?
It would relieve Oxford-Birmingham and improve connectivity to the North for the Aylesbury area.
You'd need platform loops, TGV style, obviously, but a half-hourly service would only reduce the available paths by 2ph.

Yes, it would be a gare-betterave, but the "beetroot farmers" of the area are pretty well-off so might use it to go north (or even to London).

PS I wondered about a spur to allow Oxford-North traffic, but I think.the LCs in Bicester would need taking out to achieve that.)

This idea is surely a non-starter. Steeple Claydon itself is a tiny village, road infrastructure in the area is minimal and anyone from the Aylesbury area wanting to go north either uses Chiltern Railways via Birmingham or the WCML from Milton Keynes.

 

[ConorW2000]

I thought Leadsom was vehemently against HS2? a station that knackers capacity for 1 event a year is daft.

It wont just be for a 1 year event, Silverstone race track alone gets 1.2million people visiting per year and hosts over 40 events, so it would just be purely for the F1 every year.

Also, a new station at Brackley would not just serve Brackley, there are towns like Towcester, Northampton, Bicester, Banbury which are nearby which would massively benefit, we as a county have a population of 750,000 roughly.

It would also mean less cars during F1 and other big events, which is a massive issue in my part of the world, and takes the pressure off Northampton Station as well, it just makes sense.

 

[AndrewE]

It wont just be for a 1 year event, Silverstone race track alone gets 1.2million people visiting per year and hosts over 40 events, so it would just be purely for the F1 every year.

Also, a new station at Brackley would not just serve Brackley, there are towns like Towcester, Northampton, Bicester, Banbury which are nearby which would massively benefit, we as a county have a population of 750,000 roughly.

It would also mean less cars during F1 and other big events, which is a massive issue in my part of the world, and takes the pressure off Northampton Station as well, it just makes sense.

er, isn't the whole point of HS2 that we have brand new unobstructed fast lines which we can pack with all the (identical) non-stop trains going north from London - no variation in performance, speed or stopping pattern - so that you get maximum useage of the new line and free up as much capacity as possible for freight etc on the old lines?

 

[A0wen]

It wont just be for a 1 year event, Silverstone race track alone gets 1.2million people visiting per year and hosts over 40 events, so it would just be purely for the F1 every year.

Also, a new station at Brackley would not just serve Brackley, there are towns like Towcester, Northampton, Bicester, Banbury which are nearby which would massively benefit, we as a county have a population of 750,000 roughly.

It would also mean less cars during F1 and other big events, which is a massive issue in my part of the world, and takes the pressure off Northampton Station as well, it just makes sense.

It would make little practical difference to anything other than probably the 2 or 3 largest events at Silverstone where huge numbers arrive (of which the Grand Prix is one). And the people who drive to Silverstone for the Grand Prix are usually doing so out of convenience - i.e. they are staying in the local area or camping, or live in a sensible driving distance. There are buses laid on at the GP not only from Northampton but also Banbury so not everyone is funnelled through Northampton.

The county may have a population of 750k, but you're not looking at the population distribution: Northampton (245k / 33%), Kettering (64k / 8.5%), Corby (57k / 7.5%), Wellingborough (57k / 7.5%), Daventry (28k / 3.7%) - so just over 50% in towns which wouldn't benefit from a station at Brackley. In fact since the county was split into North Northants (basically points east of Northampton) and West Northants (Northampton + everywhere else) the population split is North Northants 360k / 48%, West Northants 390k / 52% - but as we already know 62% of that is in Northampton itself - the next biggest place is Daventry and it gets smaller from there.

Northampton wouldn't particularly benefit from a Brackley station (apart from the fact it would remove some of the demand it sees from points west of Towcester) but equally I'm not sure it would make too many odds to places like Towcester - Brackley - Towcester is about 12 miles the same as Milton Keynes, which is where most people commuting from Towcester head towards. It would make no odds to Daventry - Rugby and Long Buckby will still be much closer. Bicester and Banbury both have decent train services already - Brackley - Banbury takes about 30 minutes to drive and not on a great road, so unless Brackley - London would only take 30 minutes, there will be no time saving there. Same for Bicester.

The only other place apart from Brackley which would benefit is Buckingham - and that's because neither road between Buckingham and Milton Keynes are particularly quick.

 

[A0wen]

I thought Leadsom was vehemently against HS2? a station that knackers capacity for 1 event a year is daft.

I suspect her rationale isn't about having a station for one event a year, but instead giving something tangible to that part of West Northants which has been turned into a building site to build the thing but actually receives no benefit from it. Currently the good people of Brackley have to head to Kings Sutton, Bicester or Banbury to join a train and post HS2 none of those stations were likely to see an improved or quicker service, quite the opposite judging by some of the proposals which were talked about on here.....

 

[The Planner]

It wont just be for a 1 year event, Silverstone race track alone gets 1.2million people visiting per year and hosts over 40 events, so it would just be purely for the F1 every year.

Also, a new station at Brackley would not just serve Brackley, there are towns like Towcester, Northampton, Bicester, Banbury which are nearby which would massively benefit, we as a county have a population of 750,000 roughly.

It would also mean less cars during F1 and other big events, which is a massive issue in my part of the world, and takes the pressure off Northampton Station as well, it just makes sense.

So once a week then for events. Google says 480,000 of that 1.2 million are just for the British GP? Presumably everyone drives to Brackley P&R for the surrounding benefits? In terms of journey time, how does it benefit those in Bicester, Banbury and Northampton that already have decent London and Birmingham links? Northampton is a 30 minute drive, Banbury is 20 minutes on poor roads, as is Bicester. By the time you have driven from Northampton you would be half way to London by train. Towcester has a population of 12000, Buckingham the same.

This idea is surely a non-starter. Steeple Claydon itself is a tiny village, road infrastructure in the area is minimal and anyone from the Aylesbury area wanting to go north either uses Chiltern Railways via Birmingham or the WCML from Milton Keynes.

Like I said above, it only works with thousands of houses and the other infrastructure required, such as roads, to do it.

 

[HSTEd]

If we were going to have intermediate stations we should have gone for the M1 Corridor.

HS2 selected the Chiltern route to avoid pressure for intermediate stations, there just isn't the population nearby to justify it.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

So, since we have an election next year, what is the chances Sir Keir Starmer if he wins for Labour, restarts HS2 phase 2?

He has stated that he won't.

However... he also said that was because of the land being sold off again, so there is still some hope because there is some short term alignment protection in place and when that expires it's very close to when the election would take place - so there is a chance that very little, if any, could actually be sold off again before the election.

 

[Sorcerer]

However... he also said that was because of the land being sold off again, so there is still some hope because there is some short term alignment protection in place and when that expires it's very close to when the election would take place - so there is a chance that very little, if any, could actually be sold off again before the election.

If there is alignment protection that expires close to when an election would take place, I think Labour should commit to restoring Phase 2. Given how likely they are to win the next election, no sensible landowner will want to purchase the land given the inherent uncertainty. If the Tories were likely to win again I could see potential buyers on standby for selling, but current polls suggest that not to be the case.

 

[12LDA28C]

So once a week then for events. Google says 480,000 of that 1.2 million are just for the British GP? Presumably everyone drives to Brackley P&R for the surrounding benefits? In terms of journey time, how does it benefit those in Bicester, Banbury and Northampton that already have decent London and Birmingham links? Northampton is a 30 minute drive, Banbury is 20 minutes on poor roads, as is Bicester. By the time you have driven from Northampton you would be half way to London by train. Towcester has a population of 12000, Buckingham the same.

Like I said above, it only works with thousands of houses and the other infrastructure required, such as roads, to do it.

Well indeed. Although there have been small new housing developments such as those at Calvert Green, there is nothing else planned on anything like the scale required to make such a station remotely worthwhile.

 

[Winthorpe]

All this ultra cynical Tories Grrr is getting really boring. How exactly will they arrange for HS2 to sell the land to Tories?

How much effort are you thinking it takes to plough it up and plant stuff on it!

I too am enjoying this conceit that if only Labour were in power it would be different.

It was proposed in around 2009 at the fag end of their time in power. Mainly as a political stunt to challenge a potential new government to commit or reject it.

Imagine if they cracked on soon after 1997 with the biggest majority in parliament in the modern era? There’s a chance there might be some trains running by now.

 

[Energy]

He has stated that he won't.

Not quite, he's sitting on the fence and refusing to commit but isn't saying no to HS2. Arguably it would be foolish to commit to HS2 into its week ago state without knowing what will happen to the land.

It's also an opportunity for design changes, like the Manchester through station Burnham has been pushing for.

 

[Winthorpe]

Not quite, he's sitting on the fence and refusing to commit but isn't saying no to HS2. Arguably it would be foolish to commit to HS2 into its week ago state without knowing what will happen to the land.

It's also an opportunity for design changes, like the Manchester through station Burnham has been pushing for.

The constant design changes by every new PM is why it hasn’t happened.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Not quite, he's sitting on the fence and refusing to commit but isn't saying no to HS2. Arguably it would be foolish to commit to HS2 into its week ago state without knowing what will happen to the land.

...which the rest of my post pointed out.

 

[JonathanH]

This might be an opportunity. Euston HS2 could be smaller if built as a through station leading to somewhere further across London. A location where land is cheaper and less developed but allowing interchange to some other lines would be nice. Euston would have to be more underground to facilitate an onwards tunnel and coming down Camden bank does not lend itself to going even steeper down !.

Which bit of 'there isn't enough money to build Euston' does that tick the box for? There are underground railways at Euston blocking the way of any onward routeing.

A deeper station costs more money and going beyond Euston costs more money, certainly more than would be saved by having a deeper level four platform through station.

 

[Winthorpe]

Which bit of 'there isn't enough money to build Euston' does that tick the box for? There are underground railways at Euston blocking the way of any onward routeing.

A deeper station costs more money and going beyond Euston costs more money, certainly more than would be saved by having a deeper level four platform through station.

Don’t be negative sir. We could build a through line with a stop on The Mall

 

[Chester1]

If the Euston site is resold, there's no possibility of it ever getting there. You'd easily be able to add 2A and 2B later if needs be, but once you've got high value development on the Euston site compulsory purchasing it again would be hugely expensive, and to even sell it is likely to involve a deed of covenant that it will not be compulsory purchased for a goodly long period, at least the length of the initial leases on the flats.

It MUST go to Euston* straight away or it's worthless.

* Or another suitable location within Zone 1, though there aren't any, it's been done to death.

I agree that it must go to Euston but part of the site could be developed without blocking phase 2a being revived at a later point. The benefit of 2a would be HS2 journey times and freed up capacity on conventional network. It would require the same number of platforms at Euston as phase 1. Potentially the East Midlands stub could be revived by taking land from the Network Rail station. I know you won't like the suggestion but there would be space if the Bakerloo was extended to Watford, DC services and all 125mph units removed from Euston. How many platforms would LNR need to run 17tph with a fleet of 110mph EMUs? Maybe 12 for LNR and 1 platform for the Caledonian sleeper.

 

[A0wen]

The constant design changes by every new PM is why it hasn’t happened.

To be fair, I don't think such changes originate from the PM. The reality of such projects is as the analysis stage progresses decision points will be reached, where you have to pick 'A', 'B' or 'C' (sometimes many more options as well). In reality most of the changes get driven from another piece of analysis being completed, which then triggers the next set of decisions which need to be made. Yes, some of that decision making is done with a political view overlaying it, but politicians, and PMs especially, don't spend every working day looking at the detail of a huge project like HS2 - instead they'll be presented with options from which a decision needs to be taken (along with a indicative costs and benefits.)

 

[Energy]

...which the rest of my post pointed out.

Sort of. You are right with the land sales however its still incorrect to state that Starmer said he won't build HS2 when he has said he will not commit either way. Plenty of press have done the same though

 

[Arkeeos]

So Network North promises still building NPR, seemingly still using the Manchester section of HS2 which says to me that it will never happen because of what is said in both that document and the Integrated rail plan.

IRP: "Of the three options [NPR options], all were low to poor value for money. Option 1 had the strongest business case, but even it had only a marginally positive benefit cost ratio"

NN: "As usual, individual projects referenced in this document will be subject to the approval of business cases"

and this is without the benefit of the HS2 services subsidising NPR, how little thought has gone into this document?

 

[HSTEd]

It's also an opportunity for design changes, like the Manchester through station Burnham has been pushing for.

That would delay another decade and cost a huge pile of money.

If there are design changes I think it would be more likely for a route alignment change to run east of Stoke.
With a faster Manchester-Liverpool connection in the works the dogleg to Crewe makes much less sense.

I think its far more likely that Starmer will make no attempt to resurrect it, rail against the Conservatives in public whilst thanking them in private.

 

[JonathanH]

If there are design changes I think it would be more likely for a route alignment change to run east of Stoke.

Was a route east of Stoke (for destinations west of the Pennines) ever considered?

I assume the availability of land at Crewe has always attracted a route further west.

 

[The Planner]

I agree that it must go to Euston but part of the site could be developed without blocking phase 2a being revived at a later point. The benefit of 2a would be HS2 journey times and freed up capacity on conventional network. It would require the same number of platforms at Euston as phase 1. Potentially the East Midlands stub could be revived by taking land from the Network Rail station. I know you won't like the suggestion but there would be space if the Bakerloo was extended to Watford, DC services and all 125mph units removed from Euston. How many platforms would LNR need to run 17tph with a fleet of 110mph EMUs? Maybe 12 for LNR and 1 platform for the Caledonian sleeper.

The sleeper is irrelevant in this, it uses two platforms at very specific times of the day. You can't quantify the number of platforms required without knowing what the train service is, not sure of the relevance of 125mph units being removed either. You currently have 19tph off peak departing Euston, take out the DC and you have 15tph. What are the 17tph going to be?

 

[12LDA28C]

I wonder if the idea of building two new stations at Brackley and Bicester might not be out of the question now. You could build two platforms, with two tracks in the middle for faster trains to pass through on.

There are already two stations at Bicester. How many more do we need? Not to mention the fact that HS2 does not actually pass that close to Bicester...

 

[Jimini]

Let’s have a Kenilworth / Coventry South Parkway station while we’re at it as well

 

[Chester1]

The sleeper is irrelevant in this, it uses two platforms at very specific times of the day. You can't quantify the number of platforms required without knowing what the train service is, not sure of the relevance of 125mph units being removed either. You currently have 19tph off peak departing Euston, take out the DC and you have 15tph. What are the 17tph going to be?

The current 8tph LNR services + approximately 9tph using capacity freed up by removing all Avanti services. The relevance of removing 125mph units would be all units serving NR Euston would be of the same standard, with same turn around requirements and run by same operator.

Is the six platform plan now going back to the original two phase build but not building the second phase? That would reduce the NR station to 11 platforms. Something radical like my suggestion would be necessary with such limited platform capacity.

 

[Energy]

Let’s have a Kenilworth / Coventry South Parkway station while we’re at it as well

Let's be realistic... it would need to be an HS2 request stop, just be careful when sticking your arm out!

 

[Krokodil]

Let’s have a Kenilworth / Coventry South Parkway station while we’re at it as well

Let's not mess around, Thorpe Mandeville needs a station. I mean, as many as three hundred people live there!