HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[HSTEd]

apart from the fact that no more freight (or passenger) paths will suddenly materialise through N Staffs.

Not without constructing additional track in one direction or another, no.

But trains that are currently 240 or 260m will suddenly be 400m which is still a substantial uplift in capacity.

If the Handsacre link and Phase 1 is really as useless as peopel claim, why was it bundled into a Phase by itself?

The cynic might suggest the phasing was designed specifically to make the project harder to curtail by piling as much of the cost and as little of the benefit as possible into Phase 1.
Handsacre could have been avoided by making Phase 1 only a handful of kilometres longer so that trains could be dropped onto either line north of Colwich as convenient. Ten kilometres of extra route and we wouldn't be facing this mess, but HS2 designed it this way, deliberately.

 

[The Planner]

Who is paying? In light of the bridge burning attitude to land sales any government funded spending on such stuff would be strictly verboten?

NR are doing it as part of any strategic planning. Its funded as the day job. Any intervention will have to come out of an enhancement pot, existing or DfT.

If the Handsacre link and Phase 1 is really as useless as peopel claim, why was it bundled into a Phase by itself?

The cynic might suggest the phasing was designed specifically to make the project harder to curtail by piling as much of the cost and as little of the benefit as possible into Phase 1.
Handsacre could have been avoided by making Phase 1 only a handful of kilometres longer so that trains could be dropped onto either line north of Colwich as convenient. Ten kilometres of extra route and we wouldn't be facing this mess, but HS2 designed it this way, deliberately.

Because there was an interim period of time between phase 1 and 2a opening in the original plans. This is well documented and an interim train service would have used Handsacre before 2a opening. Once 2a opened it was left with the residual 1tph service to Macclesfield. It isnt a conspiracy theory.

 

[Krokodil]

Indeed, there is no particular reason that a train can't leave HS2 at Handsacre, run to Crewe and split there

Except that there would be no extra paths on that section.

 

[GJMarshy]

My genuine concern at the moment is wasting time and sunken cost on what might be fruitless exercises. This mission to get a privately funded railway from Handsacre to Manchester Airport seems suspect. Unlike the Channel Tunnel which connected two global mega cities and opened up trans-European trade opportunities, any such line to Manchester whilst needed desperately, has to be subsidised, as there’s little incentive for the private sector to cough up tens of billions.

This time would be better spent as sad as it is, accepting the situation with the curtailment of HS2 for now, and redirecting efforts to incremental, but still ambitious schemes for increasing east-west connectivity, making northern railways reliable, removing the Castlefield bottleneck properly, and safeguarding the HS2 route for future generations.

Pragmatism from leaders is all I ask!

 

[snowball]

Because there was an interim period of time between phase 1 and 2a opening in the original plans. This is well documented and an interim train service would have used Handsacre before 2a opening. Once 2a opened it was left with the residual 1tph service to Macclesfield. It isnt a conspiracy theory.

If you go back far enough, Phase 2a was not identified as a separate phase but was just part of phase 2.

 

[may032]

This time would be better spent as sad as it is, accepting the situation with the curtailment of HS2 for now, and redirecting efforts to incremental, but still ambitious schemes for increasing east-west connectivity, making northern railways reliable, removing the Castlefield bottleneck properly, and safeguarding the HS2 route for future generations.

This is a perfectly reasonable request given the current climate. The decision to sell-off safeguarded 2a land is for me, frankly unforgivable from the government, even if it’s likely to be blocked before the general election. Short-sighted nonsense.

Looking on the bright side, the most expensive, difficult to do politically (lots of moaning NIMBYs) part of HS2 will almost certainly get done, even Euston, eventually. And I do believe in time, with a different government and economic situation, and some new marketing (call it all NPR?), something akin to phase 2a will get done.

 

[stephen rp]

If you go back far enough, Phase 2a was not identified as a separate phase but was just part of phase 2.

Until Higgins made the case, accepted by the government, that it made sense to bundle 2a with phase 1 - for all the reasons that are now being cited for why finishing at Handsacre is such a daft idea.

 

[HSTEd]

Until Higgins made the case, accepted by the government, that it made sense to bundle 2a with phase 1 - for all the reasons that are now being cited for why finishing at Handsacre is such a daft idea.

And yet the original plan conceived by HS2 put the end of Phase 1 where it is now. That decision looks very peculiar in hindsight

Because there was an interim period of time between phase 1 and 2a opening in the original plans. This is well documented and an interim train service would have used Handsacre before 2a opening. Once 2a opened it was left with the residual 1tph service to Macclesfield. It isnt a conspiracy theory.

As noted above Phase 2A didn't exist when the decision on the end location of Phase 1 was made. The plan was the high speed railway to the north west would end at Handsacre or it would reach Golborne and Manchester.

 

[Starmill]

Until Higgins made the case, accepted by the government, that it made sense to bundle 2a with phase 1 - for all the reasons that are now being cited for why finishing at Handsacre is such a daft idea.

Oakervee even suggested removing Handsacre and progressing with 2a simultaneously with 1. Obviously it was slightly too late for that recommendation to be formally adopted, which is a shame now given the money spent on 2a which has been wasted.

 

[Greybeard33]

Oakervee even suggested removing Handsacre and progressing with 2a simultaneously with 1. Obviously it was slightly too late for that recommendation to be formally adopted, which is a shame now given the money spent on 2a which has been wasted.

Phase 1 could have opened just to Curzon Street until 2a was finished. But politically it would have been difficult to deprive Stafford and Stoke of their promised HS2 service.

 

[AndrewE]

Phase 1 could have opened just to Curzon Street until 2a was finished. But politically it would have been difficult to deprive Stafford and Stoke of their promised HS2 service.

Quite... After all, who (in Westminster) cares about Lancashire, Cumbria and Scotland?

 

[Peter Sarf]

Phase 1 could have opened just to Curzon Street until 2a was finished. But politically it would have been difficult to deprive Stafford and Stoke of their promised HS2 service.

Going just to Curzon Street would have potentially meant a smaller order of trains required and purely HS2 compatible. We could have ignored the need for Classic compatible trains for HS2 until a Phase getting somewhere further North to Handsacre or Crewe was completed. Better still use Pendolinos until Manchester (etc) was reached then getting more HS2 trains.

Only going as far as Handsacre rather than Crewe in Phase one is beginning to make me suspicious. HS2 services going further North are strangled by Shugborough and Colwich and even when overcome still needs classic compatible stock for the expensive bit into Manchester.

Incidentally how expensive was it to get HS2 to the centre of Birmingham ?
I get the feeling cheaper than Manchester and cheaper by more than London. We have done the hardest bit and now fail to build on it !.

Quite... After all, who (in Westminster) cares about Lancashire, Cumbria and Scotland?

I wonder what Phase and when would have got each of those truly connected.

 

[Krokodil]

I wonder what Phase and when would have got each of those truly connected.

With Golborne journey times to Preston would have been cut by 50 minutes

 

[Peter Sarf]

With Golborne journey times to Preston would have been cut by 50 minutes

That is significant. Would Golborne be a cost effective benefit if done on its own, as in without also building a costly branch right into Manchester ?.

Btw - How much time is saved for Preston (AND points North) if HS2 only reaches Crewe ?.

 

[Krokodil]

Btw - How much time is saved for Preston (AND points North) if HS2 only reaches Crewe ?.

35 minute saving to Crewe. After which it all depends upon capacity to Weaver Junction and Wigan.

The biggest saving that HS2 would have made is Birmingham to Leeds, where the journey time would have been cut by 69 minutes. Not only that, it would have been the end of the days of wedging the passengers into four car Voyagers. Unfortunately our London-centric government (in that instance it was the Johnson edition) decided that Leeds wasn't deserving of inclusion onto the HS network.

 

[Starmill]

That is significant. Would Golborne be a cost effective benefit if done on its own, as in without also building a costly branch right into Manchester ?.

Btw - How much time is saved for Preston (AND points North) if HS2 only reaches Crewe ?.

A bypass of Crewe and nearly 40 route miles for the sake of only 2tph?

Also, at the Manchester end the branch is still included in the NPR funding envelope...

 

[Peter Sarf]

35 minute saving to Crewe. After which it all depends upon capacity to Weaver Junction and Wigan.

The biggest saving that HS2 would have made is Birmingham to Leeds, where the journey time would have been cut by 69 minutes. Not only that, it would have been the end of the days of wedging the passengers into four car Voyagers. Unfortunately our London-centric government (in that instance it was the Johnson edition) decided that Leeds wasn't deserving of inclusion onto the HS network.

So most of the 50 minute saving achievable to Crewe which then of course feeds more than just Preston and North.

A bypass of Crewe and nearly 40 route miles for the sake of only 2tph?

Also, at the Manchester end the branch is still included in the NPR funding envelope...

I must admit my hope is for NPR to bring Manchester and Leeds closer together which then as a by product makes London to Leeds high speed a lot easier to achieve via Manchester. Obviously that relies on HS2 reaching NPR which is looking unlikely but not as unlikely as a whole branch from near Birmingham to Leeds.

I like the idea of a direct high speed line from Manchester to Leeds because it brings communities either side of the Pennines closer together. It then gets extra justification if HS2 connects into it.

 

[Greybeard33]

Also, at the Manchester end the branch is still included in the NPR funding envelope...

Although the business case for a new build Manchester to Warrington NPR line would be dire without the connection to Crewe to enable HS2 London trains to make use of it. So I think the Treasury can breathe easy, secure in the knowledge it will not actually have to provide the £17bn funding the politicians have promised for this line.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

A bypass of Crewe and nearly 40 route miles for the sake of only 2tph?

It's not just the service on the bypass routes but the capacity it releases on the existing line; if you take two fast trains an hour off the existing line - which is two track north of Crewe - you can add more than the same number of paths on it because you won't have the speed differential between services.

 

[Starmill]

Although the business case for a new build Manchester to Warrington NPR line would be dire without the connection to Crewe to enable HS2 London trains to make use of it. So I think the Treasury can breathe easy, secure in the knowledge it will not actually have to provide the £17bn funding the politicians have promised for this line.

Yes I agree - the whole thing is in tatters in practice.

It's not just the service on the bypass routes but the capacity it releases on the existing line; if you take two fast trains an hour off the existing line - which is two track north of Crewe - you can add more than the same number of paths on it because you won't have the speed differential between services.

You can't really take those trains off though because you still need to serve Warrington.

 

[stephen rp]

35 minute saving to Crewe. After which it all depends upon capacity to Weaver Junction and Wigan.

The biggest saving that HS2 would have made is Birmingham to Leeds, where the journey time would have been cut by 69 minutes. Not only that, it would have been the end of the days of wedging the passengers into four car Voyagers. Unfortunately our London-centric government (in that instance it was the Johnson edition) decided that Leeds wasn't deserving of inclusion onto the HS network.

"Network"? What is this "network" of which you speak?

A bypass of Crewe and nearly 40 route miles for the sake of only 2tph?

Also, at the Manchester end the branch is still included in the NPR funding envelope...

The "branch"? The "funding envelope" isn't enough for Liverpool-Manchester: 3 new stations, 30 miles of new track, cross Ship Canal and M6, and tunnel under south Manchester. Maybe if they weren't spending Network North money repairing potholes in London.

You can't really take those trains off though because you still need to serve Warrington.

Er... HS2 Compatible to Crewe, then on WCML north to Scotland.

 

[Krokodil]

"Network"? What is this "network" of which you speak?

The Y-shaped one the government originally committed to, with the link to Golborne too. Plus other classic-compatible extensions of HS services onto conventional lines.

I might also count NPR but that's still a bit of a vague concept. The HS1-2 link was abandoned long ago.

 

[GJMarshy]

Ultimately I think we all know the only way to get the full benefits of HS2 and deliver the rail capacity the UK so desperately needs is to complete HS2 in full, including the eastern leg.

Maybe we can tinker with 2b to better link into NPR, perhaps with an approach into Manchester with less tunnelling and an alignment more suited to be used for NPR, but other than that, the plan as it stands is exactly what we need in my view.

There's been over a decade of work put into it by our brightest minds, who are any government to say they know better? And why would any government wish to prolong it by selling off land therefore forcing the redesign of alignments adding significantly to the cost of what will always be needed eventually. Crack on and get it built!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There's been over a decade of work put into it by our brightest minds, who are any government to say they know better?

Was it not "one of our brightest minds" in the form of Adrian Shooter, who leaves the Class 230 saga as his legacy on the Marston Vale Line and still providing much angst on the Borderlands Line.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Was it not "one of our brightest minds" in the form of Adrian Shooter, who leaves the Class 230 saga as his legacy on the Marston Vale Line and still providing much angst on the Borderlands Line.

Well a brightest mind might have had the idea but then there is the implementation in the case of the 230s. Depends how much money was available to carry through the design of the 230. There was pressure to show results when money was still needing to be spent. That problem is of course the problem HS2 is having - money.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Well a brightest mind might have had the idea but then there is the implementation in the case of the 230s. Depends how much money was available to carry through the design of the 230. There was pressure to show results when money was still needing to be spent. That problem is of course the problem HS2 is having - money.

Would you not agree that when Adrian Shooter held that very high post in Vivarail, that he had the overall responsibility for what occurred under his management of that company.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Would you not agree that when Adrian Shooter held that very high post in Vivarail, that he had the overall responsibility for what occurred under his management of that company.

I have no idea how much Adrian Shooter got involved in the detail. But also not sure how well he would have been in the last days, weeks, months or years. But one parallel that applies to HS2 is money and how much people are prepared to spend. Of course HS2 might be argued to be running away, in terms of cost, more than the 230s !.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately I think we all know the only way to get the full benefits of HS2 and deliver the rail capacity the UK so desperately needs is to complete HS2 in full, including the eastern leg.

The Eastern alignment would certainly not survive a redesign in the current environment.

Without the Meadowhall station it doesn't really make any sense, an optimisation now would almost certainly shift to an F shape instead of a Y shape.
There is a reason it was the first part to be jettisoned.

 

[Energy]

Without the Meadowhall station it doesn't really make any sense, an optimisation now would almost certainly shift to an F shape instead of a Y shape.
There is a reason it was the first part to be jettisoned.

IRP map for HS2 2b West + NPR

Map of HS2 Phase 2

Agreed, it's quite clear on a map that without Sheffield Meadowhall you could achieve HS2+NPR without 2b beyond East Midlands Hub.

You'd want ideally a through station in Manchester or at least a curve between HS2 and NPR just outside of Manchester so Leeds - London does not need a reversal.

Terminating London - Manchester, reversing London - Leeds, and reversing NPR services at Picadilly would be err... interesting.

 

[Peter Sarf]

IRP map for HS2 2b West + NPR

Map of HS2 Phase 2

Agreed, it's quite clear on a map that without Sheffield Meadowhall you could achieve HS2+NPR without 2b beyond East Midlands Hub.

You'd want ideally a through station in Manchester or at least a curve between HS2 and NPR just outside of Manchester so Leeds - London does not need a reversal.

Terminating London - Manchester, reversing London - Leeds, and reversing NPR services at Picadilly would be err... interesting.

I agree Manchester really need to be a through station benefitting both NPR and High Speed services.

Of course I would have liked a through station in Birmingham. But that would cost more and that will be the problem with Manchester. But I see that being easier to justify in Manchester as there will be the NPR services benefiting from it as well.