HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Trainguy34]

It's real. Was published on twitter to widespread derision. DfT deleted it after a couple of days.

No wonder Southeastern are worse now they're OLR...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The current Labour party are too on edge to make any promise to do with HS2 given how controversial it was. And if they get in to power, by the same principle I expect them to be wayyyyy too scared to reignite the project out of fear of angering people who just voted for them - my hopes are still at rock bottom

Yeah, I'm also not massively hopeful, although there is a lot of support within Labour for HS2, and reinstating it would likely be very popular around Liverpool and Manchester. I think the problem will be that some HS2 money has already been allocated to other possible transport projects. Labour will not want to be seen to remove that funding, but will probably be under too much financial pressure to pay for those AND HS2.

I think the most we can hope for at this stage is that an incoming Labour Government will reinstate the safeguarding of the route, and perhaps will be amenable to reinstating Phase 2a to Crewe - since that's relatively cheap, plus I imagine the rail industry will be telling the Government in no uncertain terms that if that bit isn't reinstated, they'll urgently have to do something else expensive to free up capacity on that bit of the WCML.

To be honest, in my view, given the very poor integration between HS2 and NPR around Manchester, it might not be a bad thing if the Crewe-Manchester bit is paused for a couple of years and then something better is worked out instead.

 

[Rail Quest]

I think the most we can hope for at this stage is that an incoming Labour Government will reinstate the safeguarding of the route, and perhaps will be amenable to reinstating Phase 2a to Crewe - since that's relatively cheap, plus I imagine the rail industry will be telling the Government in no uncertain terms that if that bit isn't reinstated, they'll urgently have to do something else expensive to free up capacity on that bit of the WCML.

Thats a good point for sure, whilst rebranding it so the general public who were anti-HS2 don't start causing a fuss. I suppose there's certainly more hope for that specific extension.

 

[JonathanH]

Yeah, I'm also not massively hopeful, although there is a lot of support within Labour for HS2, and reinstating it would likely be very popular around Liverpool and Manchester. I think the problem will be that some HS2 money has already been allocated to other possible transport projects. Labour will not want to be seen to remove that funding, but will probably be under too much financial pressure to pay for those AND HS2.

When you have the populist pressure group which is Reform UK peddling the idea that the part of HS2 currently being built could be stopped and the money saved, Labour can not commit to reinstating the bit that isn't being built.

Cancelling HS2 and stopping work at the earliest opportunity remains an extremely popular policy amongst a misguided, but not insignificant, part of the population.

 

[Samzino]

No wonder Southeastern are worse now they're OLR...

Piss poor, Greenwich line is still reeling from the loss of a direct Charing Cross service let alone now losing the remaining direct service past Dartford(By SE). It leaves Thameslink the only direct way into Kent on the Greenwich Line which often will see one of the two hourly trains cancelled.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Labour have way more important priorities to fix in the first term without any probability of a second term so bets outcome is existing route is safeguarded and no land sales take place while they no doubt go for yet another review about what infrastructure is required in the North.

 

[chris2]

Former Siemens boss Jürgen Maier is carrying out a review of UK railway and transport infrastructure for the party and could touch on the issue.

Given that HS2 is the UK's biggest transport infrastructure project, I'm pretty sure he'll have something to say about it. Also, I'm encouraged that Labour have commissioned the review in the first place - it seems like the sort of thing a sensible government in waiting does.

The news comes with hopes growing over the viability of a privately backed alternative to the capacity issues created by the ditching of HS2. The government is currently examining a project, championed by the Tory West Midlands mayor Andy Street and Manchester’s Labour mayor Andy Burnham, to create a link between Birmingham and Manchester airport with private backing.

Does anyone know what this even is? Surely some derivative of phase 2A / 2B south?

The current Labour party are too on edge to make any promise to do with HS2 given how controversial it was. And if they get in to power, by the same principle I expect them to be wayyyyy too scared to reignite the project out of fear of angering people who just voted for them - my hopes are still at rock bottom

You're correct that Labour have very little room to talk about any of these things right now. But once they get in, especially if it's with a sizeable majority, I don't think they will be too scared to act - they will have five years and a mandate to get stuff done, irrespective of how popular they become.

 

[Rail Quest]

But once they get in, especially if it's with a sizeable majority, I don't think they will be too scared to act - they will have five years and a mandate to get stuff done, irrespective of how popular they become.

Hopefully! And if this happens, it will likely restore my faith in politics somewhat haha

 

[Krokodil]

I think the problem will be that some HS2 money has already been allocated to other possible transport projects.

It's not real money. It doesn't exist until it's spent. It's not a fixed pot sitting there.

Labour can not commit to reinstating the bit that isn't being built.

Hasn't some ground work already happened on 2A?

 

[snowball]

Hasn't some ground work already happened on 2A?

Advance works, relatively limited, such as archaeology and I think some service diversions.

 

[Tezza1978]

When you have the populist pressure group which is Reform UK peddling the idea that the part of HS2 currently being built could be stopped and the money saved, Labour can not commit to reinstating the bit that isn't being built.

Cancelling HS2 and stopping work at the earliest opportunity remains an extremely popular policy a......mongst a misguided, but not insignificant, part of the population.

This is a very good point and explains Labour's reticence to commit to anything further.

I would be amazed if a rebranded 2A wasn't signed off/built by the incoming Labour administration as part of NPR.......

 

[Arkeeos]

This is a very good point and explains Labour's reticence to commit to anything further.

I would be amazed if a rebranded 2A wasn't signed off/built by the incoming Labour administration as part of NPR.......

I’m somewhat expecting them to just rebrand the northern sections as NPR, which would be good electorally and just a massive self own for the conservatives who will have invested significant money to seen as a total failure and built the most unpopular section of the line and then received zero credit for the northern sections.

 

[may032]

I’m somewhat expecting them to just rebrand the northern sections as NPR, which would be good electorally and just a massive self own for the conservatives who will have invested significant money to seen as a total failure and built the most unpopular section of the line and then received zero credit for the northern sections.

Same here. I’m still surprised HS2 was so large in-scope to begin with. Granted, a full holistic network needed to be planned for, but from a PR side of things, did we need to call the whole thing HS2? Why can’t Brum to Crewe be HS3 and so on? More, smaller projects, with smaller individual budgets, may be easier to justify on their own merits from now on.

 

[Arkeeos]

Same here. I’m still surprised HS2 was so large in-scope to begin with. Granted, a full holistic network needed to be planned for, but from a PR side of things, did we need to call the whole thing HS2? Why can’t Brum to Crewe be HS3 and so on? More, smaller projects, with smaller individual budgets, may be easier to justify on their own merits from now on

Structuring delivery like that makes it even easier for the route to be cancelled, if it were to be split up, so the stations, depot, city approaches, and the high speed lines were all separate things, you would probably only get the London tunnel and a few station expansions, would be my guess.

Look at something like the ordsall chord, where it was part of the northern hub project, but the extra platforms at Piccadilly and various station remodelling never came. So the chord just becomes some under utilised infrastructure.

 

[Krokodil]

My money would be on Phase 2A being reinstated (it is the cheapest section) and phase 2B (which hasn't actually been cancelled due to NPR) being rebadged as part of NPR.

NPR doesn't on its own justify digging a tunnel all the way from the airport to Piccadilly but the traffic from the two projects combined tips the balance.

 

[jagardner1984]

Personally I think the public finances are so dire (and worsening) there was much off the record chat that Labour were delighted HS2 was cancelled by the Tories in such an obvious own goal for that party, that saved them a load of time of an election promising to “get a grip on the project” and Labour cancelling it afterwards.

There will be some tax cut this year in some form as a sweetener for the election, so the pressure will be ever more on further significant public service cuts / tax rises for the incoming Labour government.

Burying some rail projects within the £28bn Green plan may be a good way of delivering some marginal projects within already committed money, but in my view the chances of HS2 being fully reinstated are really pie in the sky.

I hope I’m wrong.

 

[stephen rp]

Same here. I’m still surprised HS2 was so large in-scope to begin with. Granted, a full holistic network needed to be planned for, but from a PR side of things, did we need to call the whole thing HS2? Why can’t Brum to Crewe be HS3 and so on? More, smaller projects, with smaller individual budgets, may be easier to justify on their own merits from now on.

Wasn't NPR originally branded as HS3?

The whole point of 2a was that the 40 miles Lichfield to Crewe had no tunnel and was relatively cheap with just one new station at Crewe, and it got trains off the WCML.

What happened to capacity north of Crewe was another matter.

 

[Howardh]

Even if HS2a wasn't built to Crewe, they could build some of it on the proposed line from around Keele as normal-speed lines to cut the curves and avoid Stone, Stafford and Rugeley; which would free up a little more capacity on the WCML and be there should, ever, the full HS2 reinstated? Or even HS2 from the north on normal lines and speed to the Stoke area then they speed up on the new line?

 

[AndrewE]

Even if HS2a wasn't built to Crewe, they could build some of it on the proposed line from around Keele as normal-speed lines to cut the curves and avoid Stone, Stafford and Rugeley; which would free up a little more capacity on the WCML and be there should, ever, the full HS2 reinstated? Or even HS2 from the north on normal lines and speed to the Stoke area then they speed up on the new line?

you have still got the 2-track pinch point at Shugborough tunnel though. Cowich to Stone and on to Manchester doesn't seem to take enough traffic off the WCML proper to give a lot of relief.

 

[Rail Quest]

I’m still surprised HS2 was so large in-scope to begin with. Granted, a full holistic network needed to be planned for, but from a PR side of things, did we need to call the whole thing HS2? Why can’t Brum to Crewe be HS3 and so on?

This sounds like a good idea tbf. Certainly adapting it into a more modular rolling construction project, perhaps more like how Europe would build such a line. I wonder if the reason why that approach wasn't taken was the people behind 'HS2' at the time thought that, by splitting up the project into completely different projects would make later projects such as HS3/4 etc. more likely to be cancelled though, of course, in hindsight pulling everything into HS2 made no difference in the end

 

[Sad Sprinter]

That's if all the HS2 money hasn't been "redistributed" dahn sarf.

The ineptitude in the governance of this country is so astounding I’ve gone beyond anger to just outright fear. I seriously cannot trust these people with my safety

 

[Meerkat]

The railway (vague term as I’m not sure who*) needs to come up with a review showing what they need to do to deal with HS2 trains getting kicked off at Handsacre, and comparing the expense and disruption to that of just building HS2 to Crewe. Then do some really strict value engineering on 2a (maybe cheat and stick some bits under other names - Crewe regeneration for example), as much as possible within the existing parliamentary approval. Show that lessons have been learned from the current construction programme.
Then rebadge it and gift to politicians as a “I’ve made them do it cheaper” political win.

*Not sure who as I imagine the Treasury/DfT are going Taliban on making sure no money is being spent on such things.

PS How do you pronounce Handsacre - is it just hands - acre?

 

[HSTEd]

The railway (vague term as I’m not sure who*) needs to come up with a review showing what they need to do to deal with HS2 trains getting kicked off at Handsacre, and comparing the expense and disruption to that of just building HS2 to Crewe. Then do some really strict value engineering on 2a (maybe cheat and stick some bits under other names - Crewe regeneration for example), as much as possible within the existing parliamentary approval. Show that lessons have been learned from the current construction programme.
Then rebadge it and gift to politicians as a “I’ve made them do it cheaper” political win.

Years of consultants running up billable hours trying to "optimise" the design is a large part of the reason we are in this mess to start with!

It is extraordinarily rare that the quantity of "value engineering" that has already been expended is anything but counter-productive. You end up with things like redesigning vent shafts three or four times in a desperate attempt to make them smaller and thus "cheaper" and in the end achieving minimal savings that are swamped by the incurred delays.

Either you build HS2 Phase 2A as the design currently indicates or you abandon the project and start again, anything else is just going to lead costs climbing ever further into the stratosphere.

 

[The Planner]

The railway (vague term as I’m not sure who*) needs to come up with a review showing what they need to do to deal with HS2 trains getting kicked off at Handsacre, and comparing the expense and disruption to that of just building HS2 to Crewe. Then do some really strict value engineering on 2a (maybe cheat and stick some bits under other names - Crewe regeneration for example), as much as possible within the existing parliamentary approval. Show that lessons have been learned from the current construction programme.
Then rebadge it and gift to politicians as a “I’ve made them do it cheaper” political win.

*Not sure who as I imagine the Treasury/DfT are going Taliban on making sure no money is being spent on such things.

PS How do you pronounce Handsacre - is it just hands - acre?

That has been happening ever since Rishi made his decision to bin it. Yes, that is how its pronounced.

 

[chris2]

I’d be interested to know what this plan from Street and Burnham looks like. Stafford / Colwich clearly needs bypassing and there’s already a planned route with parliamentary approval ready to be built that does exactly this. Why would it be anything other than phase 2A?

Clearly the job here is to find a politically palatable way for the govt to do exactly what they’ve just said they won’t do.

 

[AndrewE]

Stafford / Colwich clearly needs bypassing and there’s already a planned route with parliamentary approval ready to be built that does exactly this. Why would it be anything other than phase 2A?

Clearly the job here is to find a politically palatable way for the govt to do exactly what they’ve just said they won’t do.

If we really have to nurse them to save (their) face just rename it the "WCML N Midlands Capacity Enhancement" and get it built.

Personally I think their noses should be rubbed long and hard in the mess they have made with maximum publicity until the general population realises the waste they have caused too.

 

[richard_S]

Its all well and good getting HS2 to Crewe but there is a bottleneck for trains going north. The line drops from 4 lines to 2. The route north needs to be 4 lines. It goes from 4 to 2 then back to 4 then to 2. these gaps of 2 lines need to be made4 removing the bottleneck.

 

[AndrewE]

Its all well and good getting HS2 to Crewe but there is a bottleneck for trains going north. The line drops from 4 lines to 2. The route north needs to be 4 lines. It goes from 4 to 2 then back to 4 then to 2. these gaps of 2 lines need to be made4 removing the bottleneck.

Yes, that too. However HS2a is all ready to go, and there are a couple of (admittedly inefficient) diversionary routes north of Crewe which would help a bit, also some traffic will - or could - disperse towards Holyhead..
I like the idea of moving forward now, and then cite the ensuing pressures as a reason for doing the next bit. It's how most road schemes are justified...
(Quadrupling N of Crewe was planned - in the late 1930s I believe - so most of the land is already available. The difficult bit is around Wigan.)

 

[HSTEd]

Going to crewe is a bit silly if you really believe in improving East-West rail links though, its a huge dogleg that achieves very little for the cost (it is cheap only in comparison to the rest of HS2).

From where we are now I would argue the best would be east of Stoke to Newton-le-Willows via Manchester Airport.
Phase 1 would be to the Derby Stoke line east of Blythe Bridge.

25km of new route and 15km of double track rail electrification (30stkm) and you remove the Colwich bottleneck and indeed possibly render the Colwich-Stone line questionably necessary.

 

[59CosG95]

25km of new route and 15km of double track rail electrification (30stkm) and you remove the Colwich bottleneck and indeed possibly render the Colwich-Stone line questionably necessary.

That does rather leave the two-track section through Shugborough feeling rather bottlenecky unless all the IC traffic uses the new alignment...