HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[renegademaster]

I don't expect labour to resurrect this tbh. I reckon they will too go with the "let's spend the money on local projects that benefit the north" but nimbys and spiralling costs will mean barely any will get built

 

[MadCommuter]

We try to work out how to squeeze as much as we can out of the line to Curzon Street and Handsacre I guess.

If HS2 Phase 1 can be an operational success we may still be able to get another line built in our lifetimes.

Edinburgh Trams phase 1 was going to be the end after cost overruns. The extension to Leith is now open.

Isn't the decision to scrap phase 2 of HS2 remarkably similar to channel tunnel services prior to HS1 being built? Speed through France and the tunnel and 'crawl' through Kent.

 

[jagardner1984]

Can anyone reasonably explain why discussion on this in the main forum, which has been presented as news since the middle of last night by the Political Editor of BBC News, along with an (excellent) 10 minute discussion on the main Morning news show (Radio 4 Today) is STILL being shut down as speculation ?

Whilst the prime minister hasn’t actually said the words yet, is this was not well sourced it would have been rebuffed by No 10 whilst they were on air. It has notably not been, and is being reported as what the Prime Minister WILL say, not might or could.

It seems frankly weird that the major Rail piece of decision making in the last decade is leading every major news outlet, and yet you would not know it from either the UK Rail discussion or Infrastructure and Stations thread.

There seems to me a clear difference between this kind of reporting of the NEWS, and “I’d like to run 6 HSTs per hour between Kyle of Lochalsh and Inverness with ex Cross Country stock”.

Sent with respect and kindness to those who keep this place going, but sometimes I feel the moderation of so many comments stifles what are clearly linked, interesting discussions, clearly distinct from wilder “I wish that” threads.

This seems a very bleak day for those would would like to see expansion or improvements for the railways in this country, from all the potential for other routes that HS2 would have unlocked.

 

[MadCommuter]

Can anyone reasonably explain why discussion on this in the main forum, which has been presented as news since the middle of last night by the Political Editor of BBC News, along with an (excellent) 10 minute discussion on the main Morning news show (Radio 4 Today) is STILL being shut down as speculation ?

Whilst the prime minister hasn’t actually said the words yet, is this was not well sourced it would have been rebuffed by No 10 whilst they were on air. It has notably not been, and is being reported as what the Prime Minister WILL say, not might or could.

It seems frankly weird that the major Rail piece of decision making in the last decade is leading every major news outlet, and yet you would not know it from either the UK Rail discussion or Infrastructure and Stations thread.

There seems to me a clear difference between this kind of reporting of the NEWS, and “I’d like to run 6 HSTs per hour between Kyle of Lochalsh and Inverness with ex Cross Country stock”.

Sent with respect and kindness to those who keep this place going, but sometimes I feel the moderation of so many comments stifles what are clearly linked, interesting discussions, clearly distinct from wilder “I wish that” threads.

This seems a very bleak day for those would would like to see expansion or improvements for the railways in this country, from all the potential for other routes that HS2 would have unlocked.

I agree. A good discussion was developing on the other thread but I found this one instead. But joining a thread that is already developed, isn't as easy to pick up.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

What do you think is the real motivation behind this decision is it financial or is it political like some have suggested? If it is political I can't see there being much gain in going after anti HS2 voters who will go to Reform because as things stand at the moment the Conservatives are likely to loose anyway so why would you scrap the Manchester leg for the sake of salvaging a few seats? I seriously think Labour need to put their cards on the table and tell us what they will do if they form the next government if they want to campaign in the election and say 'Tories betrayed the north and you can't trust a word they say' you cannot just sit back and passively except this decision Labour have been to complicit on other policy mistakes like austerity and Brexit if you are a remain persuasion IMO they cannot afford to be complicit on this too

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Edinburgh Trams phase 1 was going to be the end after cost overruns. The extension to Leith is now open.

Edinburgh Trams is somewhat of a tad smaller than HS2 in size and cost comparisons.

 

[Bantamzen]

What do you think is the real motivation behind this decision is it financial or is it political like some have suggested? If it is political I can't see there being much gain in going after anti HS2 voters who will go to Reform because as things stand at the moment the Conservatives are likely to loose anyway so why would you scrap the Manchester leg for the sake of salvaging a few seats? I seriously think Labour need to put their cards on the table and tell us what they will do if they form the next government if they want to campaign in the election and say 'Tories betrayed the north and you can't trust a word they say' you cannot just sit back and passively except this decision Labour have been to complicit on other policy mistakes like austerity and Brexit if you are a remain persuasion IMO they cannot afford to be complicit on this too

Both. Because HS2 has always been a thorn in the side for some Tories, and they can now say "we'll spend it elsewhere" in the run up to the next general election.

 

[Snow1964]

What do you think is the real motivation behind this decision is it financial or is it political like some have suggested? If it is political I can't see there being much gain in going after anti HS2 voters who will go to Reform because as things stand at the moment the Conservatives are likely to loose anyway so why would you scrap the Manchester leg for the sake of salvaging a few seats?

Until the actual speech won't be clear if money is moving to other projects, and if so where (up north generally, marginal seats, or some targeted areas etc). Or if simply is saving expenditure so doesn't need to increase taxes because too much of economy is in doldrums.

Labour (assuming they get in), are going to inherit a financial mess so they are also going to have to work out what their priorities are. Do they invest for long term, or create more non-jobs in admin in hospitals and quangos etc (red tape but no real improvement at front line), or get rid of complexity etc

 

[The Planner]

The route diagram has a complicated flyover structure with the two HS2 tracks coming into the middle of the existing formation, which I assume are the fast lines.

The problem is what happens at Colwich junction a few kilometres up the route.

I'd suggeest the better option would be to rebuild Rugeley Trent Valley, switch to paired by destination and abolish Colwich junction entirely. HS2 trains would be dropped primarily on the line via Stone.

That is waaaaay out of date. They arrive on the slows with a flyover across all four lines, 100mph junction speed.

I think that layout was replaced with one in which the up line towards HS2 turns off to the left from the leftmost existing Trent Valley track as seen by a London-bound train, while the down line from HS2 flies over all four Trent Valley tracks and then joins the leftmost track as seen by a northbound train.

Correct.

 

[MadCommuter]

Edinburgh Trams is somewhat of a tad smaller than HS2 in size and cost comparisons.

True, but when the first phase was completed beset by delays and cost increases, no one thought they'd ever extend.

 

[Grimsby town]

Sunak appears to have made the sensible decision to kick the expensive white elephant of HS2 phase 2b/NPR into the long grass, so presumably the bill currently in progress through the Westminster Parliament will be withdrawn. It is good that this is to be done in Manchester to humiliate Burnham.

However, what will happen with HS2 phase 2a? Will the works just be mothballed and the powers granted to construct it be preserved, so that the scheme could be resurrected at a later date, or will the scheme be actively cancelled by destroying the works already done and/or actively cancelling the authority to construct it? Not constructing phase 2a means that a bottleneck will remain on the WCML between Lichfield and Stafford, so I would hope that in the fullness of time it could be built, and also enable trains to run non-stop from Birmingham to Crewe to bypass the congested line via Wolverhampton.

Your comments aren't coherent. How can you ignore the capacity constraints on the Stockport corridor but acknowledge the one's between Lichfield and Stafford. You appear to have an agenda against phase 2b. Either political or because it impacts your local area. I'm not somebody who goes around screaming NIMBY but how can you ignore the capacity issues when multiple organisations have said there is no other solution to the Stockport corridor?

 

[59CosG95]

I don't expect labour to resurrect this tbh. I reckon they will too go with the "let's spend the money on local projects that benefit the north" but nimbys and spiralling costs will mean barely any will get built

Well, their own conference is next week in Liverpool, and they do seem to have courted Business (TM), so I wouldn't rule it out just yet.
I'd expect Messrs Starmer and Burnham will be watching this announcement very closely.

The point about spiralling costs is a valid one though. And, as others have been saying, there's no realistic alternative to relieving the morbidly congested Stockport Corridor.

 

[krus_aragon]

Before the (anticipated) announcement today, I'll just throw my tuppence-worth in here...

I've posted previously about my grumbles with HS2 being an England-and-Wales project, when there are no trains planned to run to Wales: through trains for North Wales will run on the old WCML, and passengers would be expected to change at Crewwe into a faster HS2 train, negating some of the time savings.

If the rumoured 'alternative investment' were to include electrification of Manchester-Chester-North Wales, I'd greet that with a nod of overall contentment. Though I would regret the decision being made after TfW have finished procuring a fleet of diesel-mechanical units for the area.

 

[AndrewE]

If the rumoured 'alternative investment' were to include electrification of Manchester-Chester-North Wales, I'd greet that with a nod of overall contentment. Though I would regret the decision being made after TfW have finished procuring a fleet of diesel-mechanical units for the area.

I wouldn't worry about that, they will probably be worn out before any N Wales to Manc electrification gets done!

 

[BAFRA77]

Our glorious overlord Michael Green / Sebastian Fox has commented this morning:

Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, spent his morning interview round defending the decision to axe phase two of HS2 without actually confirming that this is what is happening

Shapps claimed the Covid pandemic was to blame for the cancellation of phase two of HS2, because it led to more working from home. In an interview on the Today programme, when Shapps was reminded that the government had repeatedly promised HS2 to Manchester, and when he was asked what had changed, he gave a one-word answer: “Coronavirus”. When asked to elaborate, he replied:

"People no longer travel in the way that they did. We had, I think, hoped that people would go back to the railways, go back to travelling as before. My 19-year-old son, who has gone and got his sort of first full-time job [was] immediately told, by the way, it’s three days a week in the office and you’re expected to work elsewhere at home the rest of the time. That is the norm and was something we could not possibly have known before the once in a 100 year pandemic."

But when Nick Robinson, the presenter, put it to Shapps that on many rail networks more people are travelling by rail then before the pandemic, Shapps said the numbers did not tell the full story. He went on:

"What’s changed is the pattern of travel. For example, we saw a big uptick in people travelling for leisure and at weekends, fewer people travelling in the rush hour and during the week, particularly on Mondays and Fridays."

He said the HS2 trains would still be running to Manchester and Leeds and that (even though these routes would not be proper HS2 services, he implied) the journeys would still be “significantly faster” than now, because some of the line would be HS2, and because of “digital signalling and other upgrades”.

Corinne Stockheath has been approached for a quote...

 

[1D54]

From this I understand it as :-

Euston-Birmingham intact with a standard speed line built Birmingham to Manchester. But insert the word service and it makes sense and next paragraph corroborates this.

It does not really stop at Euston - in the context of the paragraph it continues to Euston. As for it being a move to placate critics that really is a convoluted way of saying that dropping Euston had to be avoided because it was too big a backwards step.

Its sort of poor English.


The East Midlands leg was kicked into the long grass ages ago.

I wish someone would inform BBC East Midlands Today about that as only two days ago they were asking the same question.

 

[adamello]

What do you think is the real motivation behind this decision is it financial or is it political like some have suggested? If it is political I can't see there being much gain in going after anti HS2 voters who will go to Reform because as things stand at the moment the Conservatives are likely to loose anyway so why would you scrap the Manchester leg for the sake of salvaging a few seats? I seriously think Labour need to put their cards on the table and tell us what they will do if they form the next government if they want to campaign in the election and say 'Tories betrayed the north and you can't trust a word they say' you cannot just sit back and passively except this decision Labour have been to complicit on other policy mistakes like austerity and Brexit if you are a remain persuasion IMO they cannot afford to be complicit on this too

It's political, but not a strictly solely HS2 issue. It's a 'There is an election on the horizon'* issue

*Assuming the failure to meet the previous election manifesto of scrapping the fixed term Parliament Act remains..

What appears to be happening, which can be seen with other previous recent announcements, is that some short-sighted spin doctor / director of communications / strategist, has told the cabinet to appeal to the Daily Mail readership in the run up, clearly forsaking all other factual proven or reputational damage,.

Don't be surprised if some oddly right wing announcement comes out soon (i.e., we will ban unisex gender neutral toilets, or something as ridiculous and unnecessary).

 

[AdamWW]

*Assuming the failure to meet the previous election manifesto of scrapping the fixed term Parliament Act remains..

Wasn't the fixed term parliament act repealed last year?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the rumoured 'alternative investment' were to include electrification of Manchester-Chester-North Wales, I'd greet that with a nod of overall contentment. Though I would regret the decision being made after TfW have finished procuring a fleet of diesel-mechanical units for the area.

There is no doubt plenty of scope to cascade generic go-anywhere DMUs, so I wouldn't let that put them off.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If the rumoured 'alternative investment' were to include electrification of Manchester-Chester-North Wales, I'd greet that with a nod of overall contentment. Though I would regret the decision being made after TfW have finished procuring a fleet of diesel-mechanical units for the area.

When "alternative investment" was mentioned, it surely would have been on other projects unconnected to the rail network.

 

[renegademaster]

Unless current planning law is attacked with a chainsaw by the next government, we are never getting anything major built in this country ever again. No future government is going to want to go through what happened with HS2 again. Best case near term scenario is some more wiring up tracks, a few more Hitachis, a settlement with unions and lots of money getting dumped into busses

 

[gabrielhj07]

Unless current planning law is attacked with a chainsaw by the next government, we are never getting anything major built in this country ever again. No future government is going to want to go through what happened with HS2 again. Best case near term scenario is some more wiring up tracks, a few more Hitachis, a settlement with unions and lots of money getting dumped into busses

What are the laws in question?

 

[MarkLong]

What are the laws in question?

Unless current planning law is attacked with a chainsaw by the next government, we are never getting anything major built in this country ever again. No future government is going to want to go through what happened with HS2 again. Best case near term scenario is some more wiring up tracks, a few more Hitachis, a settlement with unions and lots of money getting dumped into busses

The rolling electrification plan was also sinked by Rishi when he was in chancellor of the exchequer.

 

[Andrew*Debbie]

Wasn't the fixed term parliament act repealed last year?

Indeed. It was replaced by the

Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022​

Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022

www.legislation.gov.uk

 

[adamello]

Wasn't the fixed term parliament act repealed last year?

I stand educated, but at least the 5 year fixed term remains.

 

[MontyP]

Until the actual speech won't be clear if money is moving to other projects, and if so where (up north generally, marginal seats, or some targeted areas etc). Or if simply is saving expenditure so doesn't need to increase taxes because too much of economy is in doldrums.

Labour (assuming they get in), are going to inherit a financial mess so they are also going to have to work out what their priorities are. Do they invest for long term, or create more non-jobs in admin in hospitals and quangos etc (red tape but no real improvement at front line), or get rid of complexity etc

There won't be any actual detail in the speech, he will just say that 2a/b are cancelled and that the money will be spent on nameless unicorn projects that don't exist. He'll say that they will deliver much sooner when this clearly can't be the case as so little work has been done on any alternatives, and the ones that have had some thinking done (NPR) will need to be completely revisited as they were dependent on/intertwined with HS2. It'll take at least a year of replanning, evaluation of options etc to even get the outline of a new rail strategy for the North created.

 

[MarkLong]

There won't be any actual detail in the speech, he will just say that 2a/b are cancelled and that the money will be spent on nameless unicorn projects that don't exist. He'll say that they will deliver much sooner when this clearly can't be the case as so little work has been done on any alternatives, and the ones that have had some thinking done (NPR) will need to be completely revisited as they were dependent on/intertwined with HS2. It'll take at least a year of replanning, evaluation of options etc to even get the outline of a new rail strategy for the North created.

Cancelling P2a is the most idiotic decision, the cost is not high, the early work is on, and it can benefit Wales and Scotland, and Manchester.

There won't be any actual detail in the speech, he will just say that 2a/b are cancelled and that the money will be spent on nameless unicorn projects that don't exist. He'll say that they will deliver much sooner when this clearly can't be the case as so little work has been done on any alternatives, and the ones that have had some thinking done (NPR) will need to be completely revisited as they were dependent on/intertwined with HS2. It'll take at least a year of replanning, evaluation of options etc to even get the outline of a new rail strategy for the North created.

There are no other projects will be funded, Rishi himself sinked or at least significantly delayed the rolling electrification plan when he was in No 11.

 

[BAFRA77]

From Sky News about 10 minutes ago:

Cabinet are meeting now to sign off the HS2 plan

 

[eldomtom2]

Our glorious overlord Michael Green / Sebastian Fox has commented this morning:



Corinne Stockheath has been approached for a quote...

Because leisure travellers don't use high-speed rail? "Travelling patterns have changed" is evidently the Tories' explanation for every terrible rail decision they make no matter how disconnected it is.

 

[Energy]

Because leisure travellers don't use high-speed rail? "Travelling patterns have changed" is evidently the Tories' explanation for every terrible rail decision they make no matter how disconnected it is.

I wouldn't read into it that much, he's just making up anything for the cancellation.

There are no other projects will be funded, Rishi himself sinked or at least significantly delayed the rolling electrification plan when he was in No 11.

I'd expect a couple short bits of electrification announced. Knowing Rishi he'll try and claim the Northern new stock tender.

Cancelling P2a is the most idiotic decision, the cost is not high, the early work is on, and it can benefit Wales and Scotland, and Manchester.

P2a will depend on the 11th hour cuts contractors get back with, I can see it going either way.

I don't think Rishi has realised that all Labour have to do is commit to NPR and 2a...