HS2 Northern Branches Discussion

[MK Tom]

I've read into my chord proposals from earlier a bit more and realised why I was making a bit of a wally of myself trying to describe what I meant. I've turned it into a proper proposal now, for WCML-HS2 chords south of Lichfield and south of Tamworth. The latter would allow direct MK-Sheffield/Leeds/York/Newcastle services that are impossible at present. The same benefit would potentially apply to Northampton and Coventry, two other major urban centres bypassed by HS2.

 

[tbtc]

I've read into my chord proposals from earlier a bit more and realised why I was making a bit of a wally of myself trying to describe what I meant. I've turned it into a proper proposal now, for WCML-HS2 chords south of Lichfield and south of Tamworth. The latter would allow direct MK-Sheffield/Leeds/York/Newcastle services that are impossible at present. The same benefit would potentially apply to Northampton and Coventry, two other major urban centres bypassed by HS2.

The East-West line may allow direct services from Leeds/ Sheffield to Bletchley via Bedford

 

[6Gman]

Well as a relative newcomer to the area that's the impression I formed driving past both unused roundabout exits on a fairly regular basis and I'm probably not the only one. I can understand why a road would be developer funded if it was just an access point into a development and served no other purpose but the piece of road that should be built between those two roundabouts will be and should have been a vital artery for Crewe ever since the bypass was built. Think how many extra miles have been driven over those years to go round past Crewe Hall etc, not to mention the congestion that might've been eased elsewhere.

You sound like you might know a thing or two about that area. Can you explain to me why bright green polythene 2ft high film has been strung out round the site over the other side of the A500 bridge? It always was a tad intrusive in colour and is now getting to look very tatty with more holes than polythene, but I've not been to think up a reason for it being put there in the first place.

1. The A500 by-pass was a government scheme (the A500 being part of the Trunk Road network); the link to Weston Road was a local scheme, which Cheshire County Council was unable to fund without a developer contribution. The roundabouts and junctions were built as they were to avoid having to rebuild them subsequently.

2. The polythene film is probably newt fencing.

 

[Philip Elliott]

The East-West line may allow direct services from Leeds/ Sheffield to Bletchley via Bedford

COV/NMP - Leeds via Bletchley - it will be quicker by bus! I doubt you would ever get a valid ticket.

 

[tbtc]

COV/NMP - Leeds via Bletchley - it will be quicker by bus! I doubt you would ever get a valid ticket.

I didn't mention Coventry or Northampton.

By the sounds of it, Coventry may regain a direct service to Yorkshire when the XC service from Newcastle to Reading/Southampton can find a spare path after the Coventry - Leamington line is doubled.

 

[MK Tom]

MKC-Leeds via Bedford would be insanely slow. Even after E-WR I believe the Marston Vale would still be only 70mph and it'd mean a reversal at Bletchley. The idea of the chords is to give MKC/NMP/COV, possibly as well as places like Watford, Rugby and Nuneaton, high speed services to the major cities of the north. Tangible benefits to bypassed cities and towns from HS2, for negligible cost next to the cost of the scheme and the increases caused by such things as extra tunnels. I reckon if Northampton and Coventry residents stood a chance of getting new, direct, fast services from HS2 the opposition would reduce.

 

[jimm]

COV/NMP - Leeds via Bletchley - it will be quicker by bus! I doubt you would ever get a valid ticket.

Going via Bedford and Bletchley and changing four times en route, the time by train from Leeds to Northampton is comparable to National Express now. Put in a through service, running at 100mph most of the way - perhaps more on parts of the Midland Main Line - and rail would win hands down, with just a single change at Bletchley. Would think it ought to also beat the current journey time changing at Birmingham and have the advantage of being a through train, which many people prefer - especially if they hear the words 'change at Birmingham New Street'.

Network Rail's Western route business plan for 2014-19 has the following to say

As part of the ‘electric spine’ options are being assessed for direct passenger services between Reading/Oxford and Milton Keynes Central via Bletchley, long distance services between the south coast and the north of England and regular long distance freight services from 2017.

 

[jon0844]

why not just get the diggers out tomorrow and get building?

Because we don't speak French or Chinese..

 

[mattyb1405]

Coventry is the 10th/11th largest city in the UK (300,000) and "becoming a suburb of Birmingham" is something that must be avoided.

Being from Coventry i agree with that sentiment! There is significant green belt between Cov and Birmingham unlike say going north from Bham to Wolverhampton. A HS2 station at Bham International will likely result in an erosion of that with a clamour no doubt to develop around it - thus eventually it will appear as a suburb! My personal belief, certainly around Coventry and probably the Midlands as a whole is that there is plenty of brownfield sites to develop without risking the green belt - once its (the greenbelt) gone its gone!

I like the idea of HS2, I think it should be done now. I dont necessaily agree with the routing or lack of a station at a major city that is enroute i.e Covemtry. Upto six trains per hour stop there going to London currently for a reason, not purely because of them doing Bham - London! Certainly using HS2 to London from Coventry would not be quicker than the current existing services.

In the future maybe we can get new serivces such as heading east towards Leicester via Nuneaton taking some demand from Bham New Street etc but getting across the wcml at Nuneaton would be an issue? Maybe direct Coventry - London service via Leamington!

We as a country seem to continue bodging jobs in some areas, how much are network rail spending on Bham New Street? will that work really increase capacity and reliability, it seems more like they are generally supporting Bhams development rather than the railways?

I do wonder what the future ultimately really holds for the existing line between Coventry and Birmingham....

 

[tbtc]

how much are network rail spending on Bham New Street? will that work really increase capacity and reliability, it seems more like they are generally supporting Bhams development rather than the railways?

I don't know about spending in Birmingham, but it looks like plenty of money is going to be spent on electrifying Coventry - Nuneaton, a new station at the Ricoh, electrification of the line from Coventry to Leamington/ Oxford/ Reading etc (as well as doubling of the single track from Coventry to Leamington)...

 

[jimm]

Even after E-WR I believe the Marston Vale would still be only 70mph and it'd mean a reversal at Bletchley.

The East-West project will lift the limit to 100mph all the way from Oxford to Bedford. And is it actually critical for people to go all the way up to MK Central? Bletchley isn't exactly a million miles off the A5, so well connected to the key north-west road through MK, and was the town's main station for a long time until Central opened. Rename it as Bletchley & Milton Keynes Parkway (which seems a sensible thing to do once East-West is running) and you're sorted. I don't think anyone is envisaging sending longer-distance trains off to Central, with the new flyover platforms at Bletchley being their only local stop, and the regional services from Reading/Oxford and Marylebone/Aylesbury going to Central.

 

[MK Tom]

The East-West project will lift the limit to 100mph all the way from Oxford to Bedford. And is it actually critical for people to go all the way up to MK Central? Bletchley isn't exactly a million miles off the A5, so well connected to the key north-west road through MK, and was the town's main station for a long time until Central opened. Rename it as Bletchley & Milton Keynes Parkway (which seems a sensible thing to do once East-West is running) and you're sorted. I don't think anyone is envisaging sending longer-distance trains off to Central, with the new flyover platforms at Bletchley being their only local stop, and the regional services from Reading/Oxford and Marylebone/Aylesbury going to Central.

Bletchley was the main MK station before 1982, when MK's population was about a quarter of what it is today and most of that was in Bletchley and new estates in what is now the south of the city. MKC is now the main destination; usage figures make that clear. Being near to a major trunk road is great for motorists (although Bletchley has far less parking than CMK) but not much use for those reliant on public transport who will prefer CMK's connections. I would expect longer distance services to run via MKC with Bletchley simply acting as an interchange with those services that exist to link Oxford and beyond with Bedford and beyond.

Anyway, this has little bearing on the Lichfield/Tamworth HS2 chords idea, which still offer substantially better connections from MKC to the north east than running via Bedford does even starting at Bletchley. Also the Marston Vale even at 100mph (I've heard conflicting reports on that) has limited capacity which the post-HS2 WCML doesn't really. Furthermore the chords benefit more than just MK. Services using them could serve Northampton, Rugby and Nuneaton as well as Coventry and Leamington potentially.

 

[jimm]

Bletchley was the main MK station before 1982, when MK's population was about a quarter of what it is today and most of that was in Bletchley and new estates in what is now the south of the city. MKC is now the main destination; usage figures make that clear. Being near to a major trunk road is great for motorists (although Bletchley has far less parking than CMK) but not much use for those reliant on public transport who will prefer CMK's connections. I would expect longer distance services to run via MKC with Bletchley simply acting as an interchange with those services that exist to link Oxford and beyond with Bedford and beyond.

Anyway, this has little bearing on the Lichfield/Tamworth HS2 chords idea, which still offer substantially better connections from MKC to the north east than running via Bedford does even starting at Bletchley. Also the Marston Vale even at 100mph (I've heard conflicting reports on that) has limited capacity which the post-HS2 WCML doesn't really. Furthermore the chords benefit more than just MK. Services using them could serve Northampton, Rugby and Nuneaton as well as Coventry and Leamington potentially.

Sorry but they aren't going to run via MKC in a million years - the time penalty from the reversal would be too great. You just improve the bus connections from Bletchley when the time comes if it's such a terrible problem - or get a train up the line on a journey taking four minutes.

The East West Rail website is quite unequivocal about it becoming 100mph. I think they ought to know. What limited capacity? It's going to be up to main line standards, not those needed for a dmu shuttle.

 

[joeykins82]

As I recall Chiltern want to extend their Marylebone to Aylesbury via High Wycombe services to Milton Keynes, and both London Midland and Southern operate Bletchley to MKC services (quite frequently in LM's case) so the interchange at Bletchley won't be particularly awkward (depending on the location of the high level platforms).

Once EWR is up it's possible that LM will stop more services at Bletchley, especially if it's their franchise that is expanded to cover the Reading/Oxford to Bedford services; they already operate the Bletchley-Bedford service.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

A personage was being interviewed yesterday and one question touched on was the ticket prices (based upon prices ruling today as a comparison), but despite repeated requests for this question to be answered, all that was forthcoming was reassurance that it would be a modern fast service.

What classes of traveller would be the most likely to use the HS2 rail services ?

 

[HSTEd]

Well if it done properly costs could actually be lower than the cost of current tickets.
But I doubt they will be since that would fly int he face of the "premium service" envisaged by HS2 Ltd.

 

[MK Tom]

Sorry but they aren't going to run via MKC in a million years - the time penalty from the reversal would be too great. You just improve the bus connections from Bletchley when the time comes if it's such a terrible problem - or get a train up the line on a journey taking four minutes.

The East West Rail website is quite unequivocal about it becoming 100mph. I think they ought to know. What limited capacity? It's going to be up to main line standards, not those needed for a dmu shuttle.

I wasn't suggesting that. Read my post again - I say Oxford-Bedford services use Bletchley as an interchange (exactly what you say with the four minute trip). I don't expect via Oxford-Bedford services to run via MKC - I expect all other long-distance services to do so. I'm arguing against a reversal at Bletchley for MKC-Sheffield or similar services as other posters suggested and I'm saying there should be classic compatible services running from MKC and other WCML stations onto HS2 via chords at Tamworth and Lichfield.

It'll still have a large number of level crossings and the all-stations hourly shuttle will still operate which will erode capacity significantly (I agree with retaining it though).

 

[JohnB57]

What classes of traveller would be the most likely to use the HS2 rail services ?

Entirely the wrong class of personage I imagine Paul.

 

[Oswyntail]

Well if it done properly costs could actually be lower than the cost of current tickets.
But I doubt they will be since that would fly int he face of the "premium service" envisaged by HS2 Ltd.

Exactly. Any mention of "Premium" and I foresee rip-off prices aimed solely a expense accounts. If it is sincerely intended to relieve capacity issues, it should be as cheap if not cheaper than the alternatives.

 

[JohnB57]

Exactly. Any mention of "Premium" and I foresee rip-off prices aimed solely a expense accounts. If it is sincerely intended to relieve capacity issues, it should be as cheap if not cheaper than the alternatives.

A premium of 20% has been mooted, which cynics will, of course, assume to be 20% on top of standard fares rather than discounted ones.

 

[joeykins82]

The optimist in me hopes that the current "any permitted" prices would be retained for HS2 services, and the slower services will gain cheaper tickets with operator or route restrictions and/or less horrific peak restrictions (for example an off-peak any permitted London-Birmingham ticket is not valid during the evening peak out of Euston but is valid on Chiltern services out of Marylebone even though their own cheaper super off-peak tickets aren't). The optimist in me is regularly disappointed though.

 

[HSTEd]

High Speed rail actually has lower costs than conventional rail though.

Increased stock utilisations in terms of journeys per day, reduced staffing costs per passenger (thanks to still only needing the same number of staff for far more seats on the longer trains) and increased track utilisation in terms of tonnes per day due to longer heavier trains.

For instance a TGV Duplex has something like 700kg of train per seat, compared to 960kg for an 11-car Pendolino.

 

[steamdrivenand]

A personage was being interviewed yesterday and one question touched on was the ticket prices (based upon prices ruling today as a comparison), but despite repeated requests for this question to be answered, all that was forthcoming was reassurance that it would be a modern fast service.

What classes of traveller would be the most likely to use the HS2 rail services ?

For a while I've carried round the impression in my head that HS2 was going to be a railway for 'fat cats' and 'mega bucks' only. Thinking back I think I got this impression from PR put about by the anti lobby who were trying to whip up a good old bit of class warfare on their side.

When I mentioned this preconception on here the other day I was firmly put in my place (I can't remember by whom).

Thinking logically there are going to be an enormous number of seats to fill. Captives have a tremendous capacity and presumably Compatibles will carry as many as these days. With more paths it will mean much more seats than at present and there'll still be the slow mo WCML trains to compete with for those who don't particularly need to be somewhere yesterday.

So given all those pressures and in order to make money on the deal all those seats will have to be filled somehow and that will surely put a lid on any high premium for travelling HS2. Sure there'll be premiums for first class but to be successful they've got to get everybody on the line.

I can quite see why any 'personage' wouldn't want to say what pricing is going to be in 20 years time (even based on current values). Two decades is an awful long time and by then we might be back to Crow Rail or some other business model.

 

[joeykins82]

XC have recently begun to offer same day "advance" fares via their mobile site/application which, if rolled out to other long-distance operators, could be a gamechanger for load distribution and potential savings for passengers.

 

[JamesRowden]

High Speed rail actually has lower costs than conventional rail though.

Increased stock utilisations in terms of journeys per day, reduced staffing costs per passenger (thanks to still only needing the same number of staff for far more seats on the longer trains) and increased track utilisation in terms of tonnes per day due to longer heavier trains.

For instance a TGV Duplex has something like 700kg of train per seat, compared to 960kg for an 11-car Pendolino.

The output energy required for running at a constant speed of 250mph over a certain distance is four times that for running at 125mph (asuming same aerodynamics) because drag force (which at those speeds would be the dominant resistance force that the output power is equal to) squares with speed and work done is force integrated by displacement. There is also the fact that the energy required to accelerate to full speed will be four times as high because kinetic energy also squares with speed.

I am not saying that you are wrong to say that High Speed rail is cheaper, I am just not sure that you have proof that it is the case.

We also have to consider the probability of energy prices increasing in the future as certain fossil fuels run out and more strict global warming related regulations might be brought in.

 

[HSTEd]

The output energy required for running at a constant speed of 250mph over a certain distance is four times that for running at 125mph (asuming same aerodynamics) because drag force (which at those speeds would be the dominant resistance force that the output power is equal to) squares with speed and work done is force integrated by displacement. There is also the fact that the energy required to accelerate to full speed will be four times as high because kinetic energy also squares with speed.

I am not saying that you are wrong to say that High Speed rail is cheaper, I am just not sure that you have proof that it is the case.

We also have to consider the probability of energy prices increasing in the future as certain fossil fuels run out and more strict global warming related regulations might be brought in.

Remember that while power demand will go up by four times, to a first approximation the energy demand will only double because while you have to provide four times the power, you only have to do it for half as long to reach your destination.

And I base my projections on 320kph as I expect 360kph running to be abandoned rapidly if it is not done so before the service begins.

Energy costs are also very minor for passenger trains compared to other costs. Especially as with such short travel times on the captive sets as 90 minutes (on the Leeds-London journey which will be the longest really) the ratio of first class to standard seats could be expected to shift drastically compared to current practice on the routes concerned.

(My 1350 seat 400m Duplex type job projection assumes 1108 standard class and 244 first class seats, with one 18m trailer catering vehicle containing no assigned seats).

For reference I estimate the entire energy bill for such a set on a round trip from London to Birmingham to be something on order of £800, so about sixty pence per seat for a round trip.

 

[JamesRowden]

Remember that while power demand will go up by four times, to a first approximation the energy demand will only double because while you have to provide four times the power, you only have to do it for half as long to reach your destination.

WRONG

The power demand (per train) will infact increase by a factor of eight since power equals force times velocity (and the force is directly proportional to the square of the speed and so doubling speed quadraples force). Eight times the power for half the time means four times the energy per unit distance.

 

[HSTEd]

WRONG

The power demand (per train) will infact increase by a factor of eight since power equals force times velocity (and the force is directly proportional to the square of the speed and so doubling speed quadraples force).

Oops.... either way the cost of the power required is effectively irrelevent, as I said, 30p per single ticket on said trainsets.

EDIT:

I remember why I assume that energy per unit distance will only scale linearly with velocity.

It is because I use the approximation, which is suitable for low-ish speeds, that aerodynamic drag is a minor factor and that the primary factor in power demand will be rolling resistance and not air resistance. (This may or may not have an effect when we talk about trains as long as the ones we are considering for HS2)

 

[PR1Berske]

The kind of people who can afford £980 to get from Euston to Manchester
http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/hs2.html

 

[HSTEd]

The kind of people who can afford £980 to get from Euston to Manchester
http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/hs2.html

I love how he uses the nominal fare increase to make the far sound enormous, but then doesn't account for the fact that inflation will rise considerably over the next 20 years.

By then we will likely have £5 coins and the penny will be long gone.