HS2 Review ongoing

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by Jorge Da Silva, 1 Sep 2019.

  1. quantinghome

    quantinghome Member

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    And Leeds. And Leeds-Birmingham and Manchester-Birmingham. That's at least 30 diagrams, which could be run 400m long. 60-70 no. 200m double deck trains is a significant order.
     
  2. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    Ever tried stepping up 6" when in a wheelchair? Or elderly/infirm? Or a small kid? Or with heavy luggage?

    We're behind the curve on this - it really needs to be made mandatory to have UK platform height level boarding for EVERY new train ordered going forwards.

    Yes. It's not about how long it takes, it's about the type of journey. The price will make these journeys not commuter journeys. People will primarily, as they do now, take multi-day journeys with luggage.
     
  3. Ianno87

    Ianno87 Established Member

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    But we're still talking "Business" luggage, i.e. small wheely case that could go on an overhead rack/laptop back. Not summer saturday special to Newquay with multuple strapped up leather cases.
     
  4. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    Have you ever been on a UIC gauge double deck train? Precisely which "overhead racks" are you talking about? It's a coat rack at absolute best. It definitely won't take an IATA carry-on - certainly not upstairs where there's often no rack at all.
     
  5. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    THe vast vast majority of passengers are not that infirm or in wheelchairs, and there will only be a handful on each train.

    Heavy luggage and children is easy enough to climb six inches, unless they are so small that their guardian should not be letting them walk around!

    You could easily provide a hump at each end of the platform so that level boarding is available at a door for both sets in the formation.
    But the platform needs to be optimised to get the best overall result for society.

    UNless you are suggesting the benefits of convenience of allowing boarding at any door for <1% of passengers on less than half the trains caling at the station is worth many billions of pounds of effective capacity.
    The cost of providing any door boarding is a loss of billions of pounds of public money.
    It simply isn't worth it.

    So... despite more than doubling potential capacity between London and Birmingham and London and Manchester.... the price will remain the same?
    In reality the market will be flooded with cheap tickets, because half length trains are very unlikely to be much cheaper to run than full length formations.

    There wil be no incentive to use pricing to control overcrowding, and every incentive to drive increased patronage.
    Otherwise we really are building a railway to save time for a wealthy elite.
     
  6. Ianno87

    Ianno87 Established Member

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    Besides, the journey times for business (combined with a shift to agile working and the way London hotel prices are going) mean that out and back trips on multiple days become more practical. Just 'popping' to London for a couple of hours, rather than making it a 'night before' job, becomes more credible.
     
  7. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    Have you seen the price of peak time Manchester-London tickets? Even at inflated London hotel prices, stopping over is way, way cheaper.

    I don't agree with your optimism on fares. The Government will want its investment back, so I would expect fares as per the WCML now, possibly a little extra.
     
  8. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    And the price will collapse when all capacity constraints are removed.
    I can put 1500 passengers on a peak time train.
    That is closing in on 3 Pendolinos.
    I expect the Government to set prices to maximise total revenue.
    Which is pretty likely to be the maximum ticket price regime that still fills the line.

    A 200m train will almost always make less revenue than a 400m one, and an empty seat makes no revenue at all.

    A seat on the newly ordered Avelia Horizons will cost something like €32,900. If we assume 6 round trips per day (so allowances for maintenance), that is like 2100+ round trips per year.

    So even if the train only lasts a single year, the capital cost component of a return ticket is about €16.
    So the capital cost of buying the trains is negligible, the breakeven seat cost will be tiny.

    EDIT:

    It is so low that I would expect max length formations on every route that can take them.
    It's probably even worth Birmingham-Leeds running mostly 400m formations simply to effectively relieve Cross-Country of the demand.
    The journey time advantage is so huge that the changes won't matter!
     
    Last edited: 13 Nov 2019
  9. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

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    My nearly 2 year old can walk 400m with ease unaided but can not step up a 125mm full height kerb.
     
  10. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    No, it won't. Take a peak time VTWC service and you will see that they are nowhere near full. The price is set to maximise income, not to maximise utilisation. And HS2 will be no different - the Government will be sure of it.

    The only times there is really a capacity constraint on VTWC is Friday evening (northbound) and Sunday afternoon (southbound).
     
  11. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

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    In trying to work out the carbon emissions for HS2 on a per km basis.

    I've established that there's 1,592,000 tonnes of (gross) CO2 emissions over a 60 year period. Based on 1,451,000 tonnes for construction and 141,000 for the use stage.

    With 1,000,000g per tonne that's 1,592,000,000,000g.

    With 100 million passengers a year over 60 years that's 6,000,000,000 trips over that 60 year period.

    That gives me a figure of 265g per trip.

    If I assume a 50km average trip length then that's about 6g/km.

    The problem is that to me that appears to be far too low. What am I missing?

    The only thing I can think of is that is only based the infrastructure and has nothing allowed for the trains themselves (build and running).

    Especially as traditional rail is often cited as 41g/km and even Eurostar is 9g/km (which I believe is just the running of the trains in both cases).
     
  12. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    And once commuting between the Manchester and Birmingham urban areas and London becomes practical for everyday people, the best way to maximise income will be to drop the price and sell huge numbers of season tickets.
    Even buying trainsets just for peak commuter trains would probably be worth it at that point.

    Hell on Birmingham runs, some of the trainsets would be able to manage two trips in each peak!

    The current season price for Manchester-London is £15,000.
    Cut it to £10,000 or below and you will still pay back fast enough for the new trainsets, and thats assuming you don't run the trains during the day too, which you obviously would do, pricing advance fares just above the marginal cost of operation.

    EDIT:

    The operating and maintenance costs of a TGV Duplex in a low density configuration were about ~€0.0826/seat-km in 2002. Inflation and the increase in seat density configuration to 760 mean that is about €0.074/seat-km today

    It's about a 360km round trip London to Birmingham, which gives us an O&M cost of about €27 return.
    Even €5 would easily pay back the capital cost for the extra capacity, which leaves us about €32 to provide extra seats return between London and Birmingham.
    The off peak return is about £50, and the anytime fare is ~£178.

    Indeed that is comparable to the super off peak return on Chiltern!

    In this environment it is highly unlikely that deliberately limiting capacity and keeping ticket prices where they are is going to yield the highest possible net revenue.
     
    Last edited: 14 Nov 2019
  13. Hadders

    Hadders Established Member

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    Like what happened on HS1?.....

    One thing I guarantee is that fares will not go down.
     
  14. jfowkes

    jfowkes Member

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    With HS1 there wasn't really an existing LDHS service on the classic lines to compare against though.
     
  15. tasky

    tasky Member

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    This is more down to Eurostar's pricing model as it is to any immutable base level of demand – Eurostar prices get extremely expensive at the last minute and they seem to have calculated that this is the best way to maximise revenue, possibly because of the overwhelmingly business nature of most last-minute trips between London and Brussels/Paris. They would have absolutely no problem filling the trains if they wanted to.
     
  16. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    HS1 does not represent the capability of a high speed rail line in any reasonable sense.
    It's a mixed traffic railway using short commuter trains with relatively low capacity.

    If 400m platforms had been provided for HS1 Domestic at St Pancras, it would be in a much better state today.
     
  17. Leo1961

    Leo1961 Member

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    They may not go down in real terms, but they probably will in relative terms over time. Unless this is the exception to the normal rules of supply and demand. Either way it should be interesting to observe from our armchairs.
     
  18. Hadders

    Hadders Established Member

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    Claims were made that it was a waste of money, a white elephant, wouldn’t be needed, no need to shave a few minutes off journey times, it’ll cart fresh air around most of the time etc etc. In fact, exactly the same arguments that are used against HS2.

    I don’t think anyone now says we shouldn’t have built HS1. I believe the same will be said of HS2.
     
  19. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    HS1 of course was built for Eurostar, and the commuter trains are more of a "because we can".
     
  20. Hadders

    Hadders Established Member

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    People still said it wasn’t needed....
     
  21. Meerkat

    Meerkat Established Member

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    Has HS1 got anywhere near its usage and revenue predictions?
     
  22. Class 170101

    Class 170101 Established Member

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    Their argument that it doesn't benefit the Chilterns would be weakened as a result but I'm inclined to agree with those that unless Calvert becomes a New Town and interchange with East West Rail I can't see the benefits outweighing the hassles of the NIMBYs (who should be told to get on their bikes anyway).
     
  23. Ianno87

    Ianno87 Established Member

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    And now the various towns around Kent generally clamoring to have more and more HS1 domestic services serve them.
     

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