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Ideas and predictions for trains serving Old Oak Common station

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edwin_m

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The line westwards out of Paddington starts with six tracks and reduces to four just east of the Old Oak site (plus other tracks going into the depot). Crossrail will be using the northern pair which are essentially a continuation of the reliefs, so will these extra tracks be extended into the four Main platforms at Paddington and provide scope to stop some, but not all, trains on the Mains? For example could two trains bound for the Mains might leave Paddington simultaneously (or nearly) on parallel tracks, once of them run non-stop through OOC and the other make a stop and follow on the Down Main at minimum headway.
 
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swt_passenger

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The line westwards out of Paddington starts with six tracks and reduces to four just east of the Old Oak site (plus other tracks going into the depot). Crossrail will be using the northern pair which are essentially a continuation of the reliefs, so will these extra tracks be extended into the four Main platforms at Paddington and provide scope to stop some, but not all, trains on the Mains? For example could two trains bound for the Mains might leave Paddington simultaneously (or nearly) on parallel tracks, once of them run non-stop through OOC and the other make a stop and follow on the Down Main at minimum headway.
AIUI there are no “extra tracks“, except for through the platforms, and the necessary junctions. There will still only be a four track railway at or about at Ladbroke Grove, ie two main and two Crossrail/reliefs.

...unless of course anyone has more recently updated track layouts?
 

CW2

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Old Oak will of course likely be a shorter interchange time/distance between GWML and Crossrail.

Homeward-bound Reading passengers will particulaly benefit - just go to the Down Main island at Old Oak and get the next train as if it were a tube line, rather than Paddington platform roulette / stampede.
Agreed about the interchange time / distance, but anybody travelling beyond Reading will be aiming for a specific train. Certainty of getting a seat out of Paddington - and spending any waiting time sitting in the train - beats standing on the platform at OOC.
As an example, I used to know a woman who commuted from Wimbledon to Piccadilly and return each day. In the morning she chose the District Line because although it took longer she could be sure of a seat. Going home in the evening she went via Waterloo - again for the best chance of a seat.
 

All Line Rover

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Stratford and its newly developed area has not yet overtaken Liverpool Street although it is also very well connected and it has been going since the Millennium. I doubt that your prediction will come true, central London will still offer much more than OOC ever will. It's largely going to be offices, houses and flats, right? Boring.

How could Stratford possibly overtake Liverpool Street? Liverpool Street is the principal mainline station serving the City. It is exceptionally well located. People need to be there. It has more mainline passengers than all other stations in the City combined (Moorgate, Fenchurch Street, Cannon Street, Blackfriars and City Thameslink).

Paddington serves a leafy residential area, some upscale hotels and a park. Its sub-surface tube lines are infrequent and unreliable with frustrating delays at Edgware Road. It is plausible to envisage a large shift of passengers to Old Oak Common (for Tottenham Court Road, Moorgate / Liverpool Street and Canary Wharf) if few passengers to London have a final destination within the vicinity of Paddington station.
 

ABB125

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Having looked on Google Earth, there definitely seems to be space for six tracks all the way to Old Oak, although it would probably necessitate alterations to the tracks into the HEx depot (but that's going anyway?).
 

Trailfinder

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Paddington serves a leafy residential area, some upscale hotels and a park.
As well as a major London hospital.

I take it that you haven't been out onto the canal towpath between Paddington Basin and Little Venice lately. I think you will be surprised in what is there.
 

edwin_m

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This report gives statistics about travel in London (huge file!): http://content.tfl.gov.uk/central-london-rail-termini-report.pdf

On (PDF) page 28 are some graphs showing distribution of distance travelled from the termini. These show that Paddington has the lowest number of passengers travelling onward less than 2km and the highest travelling between 5-8km, which in the case of Paddington includes the City. On page 30 is the mode share of those journeys, with Paddington unsurprisingly having the lowest number of people walking. This is in 2011 when some but not all of the office development around Paddington was in place, so may have shifted since then but probably not radically.

So I think it's reasonable to say that Paddington is the least useful of the main termini for direct access to people's final destinations. There are however places which will still be more easily reached from Paddington than from OOC, such as Kensington and Waterloo.
 

coppercapped

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And occasional trains making a headline journey time are no longer important. Frequency and capacity are.
This is what is known as a non sequitur.
OK, show me a rules compliant timetable then, backed up with train performance that can achieve this.
I set the challenge. Explain why you don't want to improve matters.
Fixed that for you.
Very droll.
It is following the trend *because* of safety measures and systems imposed, which *all* have an implication on speed and journey times.
Neither on the roads in the UK nor in air transport has safety been improved by slowing things down. After earlier trials the 70mph speed limit was made permanent in 1967 and ten years later the blanket limit was reduced to 60mph on single carriageway roads. The 70mph limit pre-dates the decline in road traffic deaths. Aircraft still take off, cruise and land at the same speeds they previously did.
What is so special about the railways that apparently the only way that safety can be improved is by going more slowly?
 

London Trains

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There are however places which will still be more easily reached from Paddington than from OOC, such as Kensington and Waterloo.

It is likely Waterloo will be faster changing at OOC onto Crossrail and then onto either the Jubilee Line at Bond Street or the Northern Line at Tottenham Court Road. It may be one change at Paddington onto the Bakerloo Line but this will not be the fastest route. For Kensington it depends on the part you are visiting - some parts will be closer to Kensington Olympia which is a change to Overground at OOC.
 

hwl

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It is likely Waterloo will be faster changing at OOC onto Crossrail and then onto either the Jubilee Line at Bond Street or the Northern Line at Tottenham Court Road. It may be one change at Paddington onto the Bakerloo Line but this will not be the fastest route. For Kensington it depends on the part you are visiting - some parts will be closer to Kensington Olympia which is a change to Overground at OOC.
Particularly as the Bakerloo frequency isn't great combined with being virtually the slowest line overall.
 

coppercapped

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How could Stratford possibly overtake Liverpool Street? Liverpool Street is the principal mainline station serving the City. It is exceptionally well located. People need to be there. It has more mainline passengers than all other stations in the City combined (Moorgate, Fenchurch Street, Cannon Street, Blackfriars and City Thameslink).

Paddington serves a leafy residential area, some upscale hotels and a park. Its sub-surface tube lines are infrequent and unreliable with frustrating delays at Edgware Road. It is plausible to envisage a large shift of passengers to Old Oak Common (for Tottenham Court Road, Moorgate / Liverpool Street and Canary Wharf) if few passengers to London have a final destination within the vicinity of Paddington station.
I think you are responding to a point I didn't make.

I was answering CW2's post where it was written:
If I can allow myself a bold prediction, OOC could grow to become a much busier station than Paddington, which would be demoted to the status of turn-back siding for Old Oak Common.
I thought this was unlikely as the attractions of central London would outweigh anything that the Old Oak Common and Park Royal Development Corporation could offer. This being the case the number of people flowing through Paddington, regardless of whether they worked near it or not, would still outnumber those using OOC station where I would predict most of the pssengers will be interchanging.
 

CW2

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"coppercapped" and "Ianno87" are having an interesting debate, which takes us a little off-topic for this thread. Nevertheless I'll add my views:

As regards road vehicle speed limits, I quote from the RAC:
"Speed is a contributory factor in 27% of deaths from road accidents in Britain, and, with stopping distances trebling between 30 mph and 60 mph, it is estimated that a 5% increase in speed can result in a 10% increase in accidents and a 20% increase in fatalities – depending on the type of road. Similarly the risk of a pedestrian being killed if hit by a car increases from 10% at 30 mph to 70% at 50 mph. A doubling of speed from 30 mph to 60 mph will typically increase noise levels by about 10 dB(a)."


There is a direct inverse correlation between running headline journey time trains and running regular interval high-frequency services. The WCML fast lines timetable is a case in point. How many west coast services call at Milton Keynes during the morning peak, when the headline journey time trains are running?

As for OOC surpassing Paddington in footfall, yes it will depend upon the eventual range of connections at OOC, but it's my view that OOC will become a station like no other we ever seen in this country.

As for this:
What is so special about the railways that apparently the only way that safety can be improved is by going more slowly?
I'd expect that somebody coming onto a railway forum would have a semblance of knowledge of rail operations - or is this just a failed trolling? Alternatively if it is a genuine question, try re-wording it in a way which doesn't seem like an insult.
 

Ianno87

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Neither on the roads in the UK nor in air transport has safety been improved by slowing things down. After earlier trials the 70mph speed limit was made permanent in 1967 and ten years later the blanket limit was reduced to 60mph on single carriageway roads. The 70mph limit pre-dates the decline in road traffic deaths. Aircraft still take off, cruise and land at the same speeds they previously did.
What is so special about the railways that apparently the only way that safety can be improved is by going more slowly?

Remember when Motorways didn't have speed limits? Or 'suicide lanes' on single carriageways?

Or how holding times for Heathrow airport have got longer as the airport has got busier?

All consequences of things slowing down for safety-related reasons.
 

Bletchleyite

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Remember when Motorways didn't have speed limits? Or 'suicide lanes' on single carriageways?

You do sort of still get the latter, though usually they are marked up for one side to have priority by way of short dotted lines on one side and long on the other. I think it's generally accepted that just having 2 much wider lanes is better, though.
 

Bletchleyite

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As well as a major London hospital.

I take it that you haven't been out onto the canal towpath between Paddington Basin and Little Venice lately. I think you will be surprised in what is there.

It's still nowhere near the major business destinations in London. Even Euston isn't too inconvenient for the city.
 

Mikey C

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This report gives statistics about travel in London (huge file!): http://content.tfl.gov.uk/central-london-rail-termini-report.pdf

On (PDF) page 28 are some graphs showing distribution of distance travelled from the termini. These show that Paddington has the lowest number of passengers travelling onward less than 2km and the highest travelling between 5-8km, which in the case of Paddington includes the City. On page 30 is the mode share of those journeys, with Paddington unsurprisingly having the lowest number of people walking. This is in 2011 when some but not all of the office development around Paddington was in place, so may have shifted since then but probably not radically.

So I think it's reasonable to say that Paddington is the least useful of the main termini for direct access to people's final destinations. There are however places which will still be more easily reached from Paddington than from OOC, such as Kensington and Waterloo.
I imagine Paddington's comparative remoteness has contributed to the lower levels of commuter traffic on the towns served by it, when compared to towns served by other London termini.
 

Horizon22

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Old Oak will of course likely be a shorter interchange time/distance between GWML and Crossrail.

Homeward-bound Reading passengers will particulaly benefit - just go to the Down Main island at Old Oak and get the next train as if it were a tube line, rather than Paddington platform roulette / stampede.

Reading yes, but beyond not so much. A similar comparison - although longer distances - are trains originating from Cannon St / Charing X going through London Bridge. A lot of people prefer boarding at the origin
 

MotCO

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If I can allow myself a bold prediction, OOC could grow to become a much busier station than Paddington, which would be demoted to the status of turn-back siding for Old Oak Common.

Will OOC have any tube connections? If not, there will surely be a role for Paddington for this at least.
 

MotCO

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Crossrail is de-facto a Tube connection to the places most people are going to want to go.

Point taken, but Crossrail does not have the spread of destinations that Paddington has with its tube connections.
 

Ianno87

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Point taken, but Crossrail does not have the spread of destinations that Paddington has with its tube connections.

The plus side for passengers not heading to Crossrail will be a very significantly de-congested Paddington tube station, which could be worth several minutes' journey time in itself.
 

London Trains

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Point taken, but Crossrail does not have the spread of destinations that Paddington has with its tube connections.
Most destinations to Paddington will be faster via OOC.

For the Bakerloo Line, Queens Park northwards will be faster with the Overground, Baker Street by taking Crossrail and changing to the Jubilee Line at Bond Street, and destinations south of Oxford Circus by changing at Bond Street/TCR onto the Jubilee and Northern lines respectively.

For the subsurface lines, a lot of the areas around Shepherds Bush, Kensington and West Brompton will be faster taking the Overground. Areas on the south side of the Circle Line - Victoria, Embankment, Blackfriars etc. will be faster changing at Bond Street, TCR or Farringdon. The city will be directly accessed by Crossrail. Euston and KXSTP will be faster taking a short hop on HS2 (if allowed that is). There are a few areas Paddington is better for, but OOC beats Paddington for nearly everywhere.
 

coppercapped

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"coppercapped" and "Ianno87" are having an interesting debate, which takes us a little off-topic for this thread. Nevertheless I'll add my views:

As regards road vehicle speed limits, I quote from the RAC:
"Speed is a contributory factor in 27% of deaths from road accidents in Britain, and, with stopping distances trebling between 30 mph and 60 mph, it is estimated that a 5% increase in speed can result in a 10% increase in accidents and a 20% increase in fatalities – depending on the type of road. Similarly the risk of a pedestrian being killed if hit by a car increases from 10% at 30 mph to 70% at 50 mph. A doubling of speed from 30 mph to 60 mph will typically increase noise levels by about 10 dB(a)."


There is a direct inverse correlation between running headline journey time trains and running regular interval high-frequency services. The WCML fast lines timetable is a case in point. How many west coast services call at Milton Keynes during the morning peak, when the headline journey time trains are running?

As for OOC surpassing Paddington in footfall, yes it will depend upon the eventual range of connections at OOC, but it's my view that OOC will become a station like no other we ever seen in this country.

As for this:

I'd expect that somebody coming onto a railway forum would have a semblance of knowledge of rail operations - or is this just a failed trolling? Alternatively if it is a genuine question, try re-wording it in a way which doesn't seem like an insult.
Thank you for your post. I have to correct myself regarding the timing of the introduction of the national speed limit and the fall in road deaths. I now find the statistics for road death numbers were only looking at a sub-set of the total. I have found a clear graph on Wikipedia (usual conditions apply!) covering all deaths which can be found at <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain>. The first national figures were reported in 1926 when 4,866 people were killed at a time when there was a total of some 1.5 million vehicles of all types on the roads. The peak was reached in 1941 with 9,169 killed although essentially only official and military vehicles were on the road. This must have been connected with risks people were prepared to take in wartime, the blackout with no street lighting and vehicles driving on, effectively, side lights and one masked headlight. The rate fell to 5,000 in 1950, by which time the number of registered vehicles reached 3,970,000. With not only the number of vehicles increasing but also their power the post-war peak of 7,985 was reached in 1965.

The 70mph limit became nationwide in 1967 so I retract my suggestion that speed had nothing to do with the ensuing reduction. I would however add that the reduction in speed was only one of the contributory factors - seat belts, laminated windscreens, elimination of the steering column solidly connected to the front wheels and pointing right at the driver's heart, crumple zones, side impact protection and, very importantly, the change from tubed cross-ply to tubeless radial tyres all played important roles and were progressively introduced from the late 60s/early 70s.

Air traffic safety has been benefited by more reliable and more powerful engines and more robust airframes. But the biggest change is improved flight control and navigation systems so that planes don't fly into hills so often. Planes now have the ability to know exactly where they are at all times - not only jet airliners but the smallest Cessna can now have the same facilities as big jets. Aircraft safety has not been improved by reducing speeds - although improved aerodynamics in modern planes has shaved a few knots off landing and take-off speeds (depending on weight) compared to roughly equivalent older machines.

Which brings us back to railways...! The number of train accidents due to excessive speeds on open track has been very small. There have been some, Morpeth, Paddington(1983) for example. But the recent limitations in speeds are mostly concerned with avoiding SPADs by restricting the speeds when approaching signals. These restrictions are more severe than are needed by a skilled driver and are determined by the technology of the time when TPWS and the two trial forms of ATP were introduced on the Chiltern and GW routes and current standard operating instructions. Little or no effort seems to be made in aligning the restrictions caused by these factors to the speed which could be achieved considering that braking control is more consistent these days. The unique selling point of the railway is speed - it's certainly not cost or comfort these days - so why are these limitations simply accepted?
 

Ianno87

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Thank you for your post. I have to correct myself regarding the timing of the introduction of the national speed limit and the fall in road deaths. I now find the statistics for road death numbers were only looking at a sub-set of the total. I have found a clear graph on Wikipedia (usual conditions apply!) covering all deaths which can be found at <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain>. The first national figures were reported in 1926 when 4,866 people were killed at a time when there was a total of some 1.5 million vehicles of all types on the roads. The peak was reached in 1941 with 9,169 killed although essentially only official and military vehicles were on the road. This must have been connected with risks people were prepared to take in wartime, the blackout with no street lighting and vehicles driving on, effectively, side lights and one masked headlight. The rate fell to 5,000 in 1950, by which time the number of registered vehicles reached 3,970,000. With not only the number of vehicles increasing but also their power the post-war peak of 7,985 was reached in 1965.

The 70mph limit became nationwide in 1967 so I retract my suggestion that speed had nothing to do with the ensuing reduction. I would however add that the reduction in speed was only one of the contributory factors - seat belts, laminated windscreens, elimination of the steering column solidly connected to the front wheels and pointing right at the driver's heart, crumple zones, side impact protection and, very importantly, the change from tubed cross-ply to tubeless radial tyres all played important roles and were progressively introduced from the late 60s/early 70s.

Air traffic safety has been benefited by more reliable and more powerful engines and more robust airframes. But the biggest change is improved flight control and navigation systems so that planes don't fly into hills so often. Planes now have the ability to know exactly where they are at all times - not only jet airliners but the smallest Cessna can now have the same facilities as big jets. Aircraft safety has not been improved by reducing speeds - although improved aerodynamics in modern planes has shaved a few knots off landing and take-off speeds (depending on weight) compared to roughly equivalent older machines.

Which brings us back to railways...! The number of train accidents due to excessive speeds on open track has been very small. There have been some, Morpeth, Paddington(1983) for example. But the recent limitations in speeds are mostly concerned with avoiding SPADs by restricting the speeds when approaching signals. These restrictions are more severe than are needed by a skilled driver and are determined by the technology of the time when TPWS and the two trial forms of ATP were introduced on the Chiltern and GW routes and current standard operating instructions. Little or no effort seems to be made in aligning the restrictions caused by these factors to the speed which could be achieved considering that braking control is more consistent these days. The unique selling point of the railway is speed - it's certainly not cost or comfort these days - so why are these limitations simply accepted?

When we solely relied on 'skilled drivers', SPADs were much more commonplace. Technology has clearly improved this.

The problem with rail is that such technology needs to be "one size fits all" to deal with a variety of conditions, most notably weather where braking performance substantially deteriorates in certain conditions, at any time of year.

I'd argue that this is a factor that uniquely affects rail, with the unique way the granularity of its operation is planned based on seconds of accuracy, far more granular than air and even moreso than roads which are a true choatic system.
 
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...Euston and KXSTP will be faster taking a short hop on HS2 (if allowed that is)...

On current plan, HS2 services will "all seated" like an aeroplane, not "ticket to ride" like the bus/tube/classic rail. So one would have to get to station, buy a ticket before the service is "closed out," get to platform, wait for designated trains, board and ride. Methinks chances are that will take longer than hopping on Crossrail and it seems unlikely I'll be allowed passage using my Oyster!

It's mildly amusing to contemplate how they might police this - will their be "bouncers" checking tickets at every passenger door...? At one time they were talking about "virtual" rather than physical ticket barriers (though it's interesting to look at some of the plans/renders of stations in light of that - some of them seem to have gatelines.)
 

swt_passenger

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On current plan, HS2 services will "all seated" like an aeroplane, not "ticket to ride" like the bus/tube/classic rail. So one would have to get to station, buy a ticket before the service is "closed out," get to platform, wait for designated trains, board and ride. Methinks chances are that will take longer than hopping on Crossrail and it seems unlikely I'll be allowed passage using my Oyster!
What’s your evidence for that, “like an aeroplane”other than posts by members here?
 
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Andrew McNaughton stated such in evidence to Select Committee of Parliament during passage of the Phase 1 Bill. I'm afraid I cannot give you chapter and verse as to the specific session!
 
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Seems unlikely - maybe if the GWML has exploded between OOC and Paddington and HS2 steps into the breach during the perturbation, but in "normal" service, probably not. Still, there's plenty of years before start of service for things to change.
 
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