• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

If there were a general election in a month, whom would you vote for to most effectively get us out of this mess?

Status
Not open for further replies.

haggishunter

Member
Joined
25 Aug 2016
Messages
349
I saw a poll based prediction of Westminster seats yesterday. I took more note of the Welsh seats than others, but it had the SNP winning every Scottish seat. I think that's unlikely...

There's been a few UK wide polls recently where the Scottish sub-samples have suggested the SNP winning 58 of 59 seats, with Labour's Ian Murray clinging on by his fingertips in the People's Republic of er Morningside ! A recent full size Scottish Poll suggested the SNP are on course for an overall majority in the PR Scottish Parliament and unlike Westminster there is a Scottish General Election due in 10 months time.

Up until minor boundary changes in 2015 Charles Kennedy had been my MP and I'd voted for him in 2010, but I was no longer in his seat and voted for the SNP's Drew Hendry in 2015 and each of the subsequent elections. He's not one of the better known SNP MPs, but he's been a very solid local constituency MP with whom I've had some personal dealings with on local matters and would vote for him again if there was an early Westminster election.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,928
Location
Nottingham
Who that might be is anyone’s guess however.
With most of the "sensible" Tories having been pushed out or left before that happened, there's a serious shortage of alternatives (maybe that was part of the Johnson plan). I can't see any of the current cabinet except possibly Sunak, and although he seems to have made a decent fist of his role, the person who doles out the relative goodies has a head start in the popularity stakes. That may well reverse when they are in a situation of working out what taxes to raise or spending to cut to improve the public finances without choking the economy, while also trying to satisfy both the Boris wing of the Tory party that apparently wants to keep spending on "levelling up", and the more traditional Thatcherite faction. Along with the self-inflicted injury of Brexit...
 

SteveM70

Established Member
Joined
11 Jul 2018
Messages
3,878
I can't see any of the current cabinet except possibly Sunak, and although he seems to have made a decent fist of his role, the person who doles out the relative goodies has a head start in the popularity stakes.

Indeed, and he has a very active and well managed social media presence as well, very “brand Rishi”.

But his popularity will quickly wither away once he has to announce how the hell we’re going to pay for everything. Not sure whether being plastered all over Wetherspoons will help or hinder either.
 

class26

Member
Joined
4 May 2011
Messages
1,126
The country needs a grown-up in charge. His name is Keir Starmer.

Pity about the rest of the loonies in the labour party though.
Easy to be in opposition and let`s remember Boris did almost die due to Covid. This seems to have been totally forgotten. He was absent for a good month when crucial decisions needed to be made and those under him were afraid to put their neck on the line. I think that explains a lot of the delays we have seen in the early part of the crisis.
 

alex397

Established Member
Joined
6 Oct 2017
Messages
1,553
Location
UK
Pity about the rest of the loonies in the labour party though.
Easy to be in opposition and let`s remember Boris did almost die due to Covid. This seems to have been totally forgotten. He was absent for a good month when crucial decisions needed to be made and those under him were afraid to put their neck on the line. I think that explains a lot of the delays we have seen in the early part of the crisis.

It's very easy to be in opposition against this current government, they appear to be making it very easy for the opposition. When up against Johnson, Starmer comes across as far more mature and statesmanlike. Unlike Boris who comes across like an overgrown schoolboy. It's clear Boris and much of the government are very devisive too, which is not what you need from a government.

Yes, Boris had Covid and it is good he pulled through. Let's not forget though that he was encouraging the nation to continue shaking hands despite the advice not to, and he boasted about shaking the hands of coronavirus patients!

There are some of the Labour Party who I'm not quite keen on, but I wouldn't describe them as 'loonies' - that's a bit over the top. I'd still rather a Labour government than what we have currently!
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,775
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Pity about the rest of the loonies in the labour party though.
Easy to be in opposition and let`s remember Boris did almost die due to Covid. This seems to have been totally forgotten. He was absent for a good month when crucial decisions needed to be made and those under him were afraid to put their neck on the line. I think that explains a lot of the delays we have seen in the early part of the crisis.

Boris trying to play the hero, and (perhaps more so) reluctant to let power slip away to someone else. I agree it likely didn’t help things.
 

Mugby

Established Member
Joined
25 Nov 2012
Messages
1,926
Location
Derby
Pity about the rest of the loonies in the labour party though.

Indeed. As a long time Labour voter, this is the one thing that puts me off voting for them now. The shadow cabinet under Corbyn was truly frightening and it's little better under Starmer. I'm old enough to remember when Labour had people of great stature and intellect in the parliamentary party, there aren't any now.
 

BJames

Established Member
Joined
27 Jan 2018
Messages
1,365
It's very easy to be in opposition against this current government, they appear to be making it very easy for the opposition. When up against Johnson, Starmer comes across as far more mature and statesmanlike. Unlike Boris who comes across like an overgrown schoolboy. It's clear Boris and much of the government are very devisive too, which is not what you need from a government.

Yes, Boris had Covid and it is good he pulled through. Let's not forget though that he was encouraging the nation to continue shaking hands despite the advice not to, and he boasted about shaking the hands of coronavirus patients!

There are some of the Labour Party who I'm not quite keen on, but I wouldn't describe them as 'loonies' - that's a bit over the top. I'd still rather a Labour government than what we have currently!
The biggest issue for me is how Boris deals with questions from the opposition. It's always "I'd have thought the leader of the opposition wanted to support us in our continued fight against the coronavirus", and he always seems shocked by Starmer's response, to not mistake constructive criticism for personal attacks.

Agreed, Starmer is an excellent candidate in my opinion and there are some issues in the Labour party undoubtably - but we're not going to get a perfect cabinet.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,928
Location
Nottingham
Pity about the rest of the loonies in the labour party though.
Easy to be in opposition and let`s remember Boris did almost die due to Covid. This seems to have been totally forgotten. He was absent for a good month when crucial decisions needed to be made and those under him were afraid to put their neck on the line. I think that explains a lot of the delays we have seen in the early part of the crisis.
Most of the critical decisions were before Boris was hospitalized in the first week of April. The situation afterwards just goes to show how useless the rest of the Cabinet are.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
13,305
Location
Isle of Man
let`s remember Boris did almost die due to Covid. This seems to have been totally forgotten. He was absent for a good month when crucial decisions needed to be made

Boris hand-picked his cabinet so if they're useless wet imbeciles then that falls on Boris anyway. He chose devout Brexitism over competence, which is why a 5-watt intellect like Priti Patel is Home Secretary.

Rishi Sunak- who only appears competent because he's making the Magic Money Tree rain dollar bills like he's in a low-class strip bar- only got the job because he was prepared to let Cummings choose his advisers for him, and his predecessor wasn't.

Boris didn't "nearly die" and, even if he did, it doesn't make him a competent leader. It also glosses over the fact that Boris had his short stay in hospital more than a month after the crucial bad decisions were made.

Pity about the rest of the loonies in the labour party though.

Unlike with the Tories, the "loonies" in Labour are nowhere near the seat of power now the grown-ups are in charge.

There are crazies on the extremes of both parties. But if we're playing Mental Case Top Trumps, Mark Francois, Philip Davies, Peter Bone and Christopher "I support upskirting" Chope beat anything the Labour Party have to offer. Yes, even Richard Burgon.

I'm old enough to remember when Labour had people of great stature and intellect in the parliamentary party, there aren't any now.

I don't think you can compare Nick Thomas-Symonds with Priti Patel, or Jonathan Ashworth with Matt Hancock, and say Labour is lacking in intellect.
 
Last edited:

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
6,551
Location
UK
Personally I feel that Boris being absent has a non-trivial effect on our change from "flattening the curve and stopping the NHS overwhelmed" towards this insane strategy of suppression.
 

Huntergreed

Established Member
Associate Staff
Events Co-ordinator
Joined
16 Jan 2016
Messages
3,023
Location
Dumfries
Personally I feel that Boris being absent has a non-trivial effect on our change from "flattening the curve and stopping the NHS overwhelmed" towards this insane strategy of suppression.
Actually that's a very good point. I've always wondered what the reason was for the goalposts to keep switching, and I suspect you may be correct in that it was the fact that Boris nearly died from the virus (he's in a very, very small minority, but the fact he went through it will no doubt influence his views that suppression must be prioritised above all else).
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,928
Location
Nottingham
Personally I feel that Boris being absent has a non-trivial effect on our change from "flattening the curve and stopping the NHS overwhelmed" towards this insane strategy of suppression.
It was blindingly obvious at the time that even if the infection rate could be managed well enough to keep the number of hospitalisations exactly matching the available beds, it would take several years of constantly changing mitigation measures before it burned through the whole population. I posted a simple calculation on this forum that proved it. That option just shouldn't have been on the table in March, and I'm slightly worried to read on the BBC that Vallance actually suggested it.
 

Wuffle

Member
Joined
1 Oct 2019
Messages
131
Location
East Anglia
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party as opposed to the unofficial ones currently inhabiting Westminster, Holyrood or Senedd Cymru
 

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
6,551
Location
UK
It was blindingly obvious at the time that even if the infection rate could be managed well enough to keep the number of hospitalisations exactly matching the available beds, it would take several years of constantly changing mitigation measures before it burned through the whole population. I posted a simple calculation on this forum that proved it. That option just shouldn't have been on the table in March, and I'm slightly worried to read on the BBC that Vallance actually suggested it.

I disagree, though I could see how it could be so if the vastly exaggerated hospitalisation rates suggested early on were used in the calculations
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
13,305
Location
Isle of Man
suspect you may be correct in that it was the fact that Boris nearly died from the virus (he's in a very, very small minority, but the fact he went through it will no doubt influence his views that suppression must be prioritised above all else).

He didn't nearly die. He didn't even go on a ventilator! If he'd not been PM he'd not have even been admitted to hospital, or so mutters MD in Private Eye, who would know.

I don't think masks are anything to do with suppression, and everything to do with trying to reassure the nervous that it's safe to go outside and spend money.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,928
Location
Nottingham
I disagree, though I could see how it could be so if the vastly exaggerated hospitalisation rates suggested early on were used in the calculations
It came close to overwhelming the NHS in the early days, so I don't see how you can claim the hospitalization rates were exaggerated.

They would be somewhat lower now, due to improving knowledge on how to treat it, probably shortening the average stay rather than reducing the number of admissions. But I don't think that's enough to make it safe to switch to a herd immunity policy.
 

Peter Mugridge

Veteran Member
Joined
8 Apr 2010
Messages
14,830
Location
Epsom
They would be somewhat lower now, due to improving knowledge on how to treat it, probably shortening the average stay rather than reducing the number of admissions.

It's both factors. The number of admissions is falling as well as the treatment getting better. There is a graph on the Government's information page which shows the number of hospital admissions for each day:

 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,928
Location
Nottingham
It's both factors. The number of admissions is falling as well as the treatment getting better. There is a graph on the Government's information page which shows the number of hospital admissions for each day:

Yes the admissions are going down, but isn't that simply because the total cases are going down? There have been measures to improve treatment in hospital but I don't think there's been much done that would allow more people to be treated at home instead.

If things get out of control and the cases go back up then the admissions will go up too. The various theories floating around about immunity level are no more than that at present, so we have to consider the possibility that rates will rise in the same rate as they did in March, which could rapidly get us back into overwhelming.

I'd like to hope this is more under control via to more local monitoring and selective control of hotspots, although that's still economically disruptive. But looking at the track record of the current lot I wouldn't put it past them to let things slip to the extent that widespread lockdown comes back.
 

Silverlinky

Member
Joined
3 Feb 2012
Messages
689
It came close to overwhelming the NHS in the early days, so I don't see how you can claim the hospitalization rates were exaggerated.

They would be somewhat lower now, due to improving knowledge on how to treat it, probably shortening the average stay rather than reducing the number of admissions. But I don't think that's enough to make it safe to switch to a herd immunity policy.

I'm not sure about the claim that it "came close to overwhelming the NHS".......

According to the Governments own figures there are around 140000 hospital beds in the UK, the highest number of patients in hospital with Covid at any time in this crisis has been just under 20000. The highest percentage of mechanical ventilator beds in use at any one time has been around 45%.

Sure, it (COVID) placed a huge additional strain on the NHS, and there may have been some hospitals which were overwhelmed, but its wrong to say the (whole) NHS was close to be overwhelmed based on those figures.

We certainly did not see the scenes that were broadcast around the world from Italian hospitals......
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,928
Location
Nottingham
I'm not sure about the claim that it "came close to overwhelming the NHS".......

According to the Governments own figures there are around 140000 hospital beds in the UK, the highest number of patients in hospital with Covid at any time in this crisis has been just under 20000. The highest percentage of mechanical ventilator beds in use at any one time has been around 45%.

Sure, it (COVID) placed a huge additional strain on the NHS, and there may have been some hospitals which were overwhelmed, but its wrong to say the (whole) NHS was close to be overwhelmed based on those figures.

We certainly did not see the scenes that were broadcast around the world from Italian hospitals......
It was said at the time that they were making 30000 beds available. The difference between 20000 and 30000 isn't big when you're talking about an infection that was doubling every three days or so. Especially when many of those 30000 were dependent on the Nightingales being commissioned in time (and we never really found out whether they would have worked, particularly in relation to having enough suitable staff).

The NHS is notorious for high bed utilization so I don't think the 140000 tells us anything relevant. Many of them would lack suitably trained staff and necessary facilities to treat that sort of condition and others would have been occupied by people that couldn't be discharged. As it was, freeing up the 30000 would appear to have involved discharging many infected people into care homes.

We escaped the scenes from Italy, but it's worth noting they probably ended up with fewer casualties overall.
 

Cowley

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
15 Apr 2016
Messages
15,787
Location
Devon
Can we get back onto the topic of who you’d vote for to get us out of this mess if there was a general election next month please everyone.
I know that a lot of these things are related but this has gone quite a long way off topic now.
Thanks all.
 

VauxhallandI

Established Member
Joined
26 Dec 2012
Messages
2,744
Location
Cheshunt
Starmer and Labour.

If Johnson goes before the next election can some please 100% confirm that Gove didn’t used to be a pig farmer.
 

SS4

Established Member
Joined
30 Jan 2011
Messages
8,589
Location
Birmingham
Labour. I cannot stand how obviously two faced the Tories are regarding the NHS and how nobody is willing to question them on it.

The current chancellor is acting like there is a huge money tree - something which Corbyn was hounded over yet only crickets when it comes out of a Tory's mouth.
 

DB

Guest
Joined
18 Nov 2009
Messages
5,036
Defintely Labour over Tory (I'm not greatly impressed by them, but they can't do worse - and I'd never vote Tory anyway).

Not that it actually makes any difference as I live in one of the safest Tory seats in the country and there's no chance of a swing given the massive majority they have.
 

Harpers Tate

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2013
Messages
1,708
Tory/Boris.
1: It is way, way too easy to be "wise with hindsight". None of us, including the government and its advisers, scientific and otherwise, here or abroad, fully understood (nor do we still, really) the novel virus, its propagation, its hugely varied effect (from zero to death) on those who catch it; and thereby nobody could realistically manage it pro-actively. We can only be reactive. I HUGELY sypathise with anybody who is faced with having to manage a country in these circumstances, a substantial proportion of whose population are evidently not very "bright" - witness gatherings on beaches, outside football grounds and the reluctance, despite recent guidance, to wear masks in enclosed spaces; witness the rammed full pubs the night before lockdown despite what we supposedly knew....and so on. In the circumstances I sincerely doubt anyone would have done a better job. Different, perhaps, but not - in the broad scheme of things - better.
2: Starmer is clearly a better proposition than his predecessor. But to me, he let himself down by presenting himself on the TV fairly early on as someone who was not going to "political point-score" but would work with the government to get the Covid issue managed/solved - yet then immediately proceeded to call the govenment out for all the could have/should have matters - and that is, again, a matter of 20/20 hindsight and hence nothing short of political point scoring. There is nothing useful in criticising the past - all that's beneficial is to design the future. And I have seen little useful input from Starmer on that.
3: It is way, way easier to be in opposition than it is to govern. Unlike the party in power, what they say or do or promise has no material effect. Thus they can say anything they like, pretty much with impunity, and with the sole objective of sounding popular and/or discrediting the other side.
4: Or to put it another way - if the Labour Party had woken up to his predecessor earlier and elected Starmer before the General Election; and had he won a majority - then I believe we would right now be in an exactly parallel situation; one where the actions of the government could have/should have been done differently. One where the effects on people or the economy or the NHS etc., would be just as flawed and incomplete as they are - just different. Because, quite simply, there is not, was not, nor will there ever be, a flawless RIGHT approach.
 

jfollows

Established Member
Joined
26 Feb 2011
Messages
5,835
Location
Wilmslow
I believe that the wisdom of hindsight will give us a view on which of the mistakes the government has made are understandable and would have been made by any government, and which of the mistakes the government has made were caused by its own failings and could and should have been handled differently.

For now my views are subjective and not wise.

But we expect our governments to get things right. It's not always acceptable to say things like "we'd have done things differently if we'd only known differently", which is a high standard against which they are judged.

Looking forward, Labour has started down a path of being able to offer a viable alternative to a significant number of voters, but it's a long haul I think.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,775
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
I believe that the wisdom of hindsight will give us a view on which of the mistakes the government has made are understandable and would have been made by any government, and which of the mistakes the government has made were caused by its own failings and could and should have been handled differently.

For now my views are subjective and not wise.

But we expect our governments to get things right. It's not always acceptable to say things like "we'd have done things differently if we'd only known differently", which is a high standard against which they are judged.

Looking forward, Labour has started down a path of being able to offer a viable alternative to a significant number of voters, but it's a long haul I think.

My view is that Boris can probably be reasonably forgiven for most of the actual decisions, as you say there’s a hefty dose of hindsight waiting to be taken. However the way things have been done and some of the communications surrounding it all have been dire. Likewise there was clearly dithering on the lockdown - if it was going to be done then it was probably a few days too late.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,044
Location
Taunton or Kent
While there is definitely plenty of hindsight in this, there are decisions that should have been taken by common sense or foresight of other countries ahead of us in the pandemic. These include mandatory quarantine of arrivals from abroad: there was a recent study suggesting there was no patient zero as around 80% of infections from abroad came in from late February all the way through March; I reckon we could have contained them from at least early March onwards without hindsight. Reports Johnson did not attend 5 COBRA meetings on this doesn't look good either, even if he was genuinely very busy he should have been to all bar one of them maybe, again no hindsight necessary there.
 

Jamesrob637

Established Member
Joined
12 Aug 2016
Messages
5,243
Labour. To the point where I have nearly made a couple of recent short car journeys and never turned right <:D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top