Integrated Rail Plan (IRP)

[HST43257]

Where exactly does this part out from Leeds get to?

 

[nick.c]

Where exactly does this part out from Leeds get to?

To Clayton Junction, I think, where it'll join a hopefully upgraded and electrified MML for the remaining section into Sheffield.

 

[snowball]

With so much talk of the Manchester arm being safe, we haven't heard much in recent weeks of whether that includes the Wigan arm.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

They've both got their improved IET services (or at least would have done were it not for Covid).

Electrification is only an input, train services are the output. Don't confuse the two.

I don't think that works for the general public who generally always see electrification as 'a good thing'.

Not to mention the potential for the electrification of regional services (Maesteg to Cheltenham for example) as well as freight to Port Talbot.

 

[JKF]

I love the way it’s being spun as “three new high speed lines” when it’s actually a proposed high speed line docked of about 40% of the route in the middle and another bit of line already announced. Modern government really likes announcing things over and over again in the hope people are fooled into thinking it’s new money every time.

(and it’s not just national government, I lost count the number of times some regurgitated press release in the local paper announced that Kirkstall Forge station had taken a ‘major step forward’ over the decade or so it took to build the bloody thing)

 

[Purple Orange]

The National Infrastructure Commission estimated 93 minutes on the “prioritising regional links +50%” outcome. Which is the one that builds a new line to East Mids Parkway and some high speed line out of leeds

https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-Final-Report-15122020.pdf

This is the paper I’m on about ^

Hmmm, 93 mins to London & 60 mins to Birmingham. That 27 min figure between Birmingham & Nottingham was also quoted in today’s reports, as was knocking 20 mins off the Leeds-Manchester line. That suggests the outcome may be a combination of Regional +25% and Regional 50% (Regional +35% perhaps?).

 

[Ianno87]

I don't think that works for the general public who generally always see electrification as 'a good thing'.

Not the people of Bath, who campaigned against it (but did get the new trains).

 

[43096]

c) Crewe to Manchester is almost 37 miles

The existing line is 31 miles. So 33 miles of new line sounds about right depending on the routing.

 

[HSTEd]

Now let's just hope they don't stick religiously to the HS2-East routing and put a chord onto the Doncaster-Leeds line from the new high speed segment.

But either way I think that a route through Sheffield will struggle to compete with the one via Doncaster or the one via Manchester for Leeds-London traffic.

And even if no direct Leeds-London trains run via Manchester, I think we will get lots of people changing at Picadilly since it will be so much faster.

 

[matacaster]

I suspect we will see something akin to the NIC report, possible alterations to the proposed HS2 Eastern leg that is much more integrated with the existing network. Some new bits of new line rather than a completely new line between EMP and Leeds.

As for NPR if it goes via Huddersfield I suspect they will also proposed to reopen the Anchor Pit - Wyke line so that Bradford could have a direct fast service to Manchester via Huddersfield.

Probably a new line South of Huddersfield before running South West towards the M62 below Rochdale before joining the existing line, which would probably be four tracked all the way into Manchester.

Anyway does the IRP mean publishing the planned routes or not ?D

Doesn't Anchor Pit line go over the rather significant and partly demolished bailiff bridge? That would be pricey!

Now let's just hope they don't stick religiously to the HS2-East routing and put a chord onto the Doncaster-Leeds line from the new high speed segment.

But either way I think that a route through Sheffield will struggle to compete with the one via Doncaster or the one via Manchester for Leeds-London traffic.

And even if no direct Leeds-London trains run via Manchester, I think we will get lots of people changing at Picadilly since it will be so much faster.

Route through Sheffield will be a bit slower, but it's about capacity (and connections).

Moving the conversation on to more relevant aspects, could Leeds-London services realistically be faster than the east coast mainline if travelling on the 23 mile stretch south of Leeds and the 42 mile stretch from East Midlands Parkway to the HS2 phase 1 line?

Could they reopen and upgrade the midland route via normanton? It's longer, but only has the bad curve near altofts.That would provide an alternative to more direct route via Westgate and linespeed could be raised as it's generally flat and not too curvey.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

More of ST article

Nearly £100 billion will be spent on England’s railways outside London, including the construction of three new high-speed lines that will cut journey times in half.

The investment, due to be announced later this week, is intended to make good on Boris Johnson’s “levelling-up” pledge — despite confirmation that the 120-mile eastern leg of HS2 from Birmingham to Leeds will be scrapped.

Rather than focusing on quicker links from northern England to the capital, a 20-year programme of new lines and upgrades will halve journey times between cities such as Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Nottingham and Sheffield. For example, it will take 27 minutes, rather than 72 minutes, to travel from Birmingham to Nottingham. To get to Birmingham from Manchester will take 40 minutes, rather than 90 minutes.

At the heart of the plans is the goal of creating a rail commuter culture in the Midlands and the north to rival that of London and the southeast, thus increasing the job market between cities. At present, only 10 per cent of journey miles in these regions were made by rail.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, who is expected to announce the outcome of the Integrated Rail Plan on Thursday, is likely to face heavy criticism for the decision to drop the HS2 line east of the Pennines on the 120-mile stretch from Birmingham to Leeds.

But one Whitehall source said the reconfigured plans, with £96 billion of additional funds, will deliver many of the promised benefits without having to wait until the 2040s. “We’re looking at the same journey times as the original HS2 proposals but 10 years sooner. Lots of stations aren’t well connected to particular cities — we’re going to make sure stations are all properly connected to local transport networks.”

The new high-speed routes include:

• A 42-mile line from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway, just south of Nottingham. This is expected to cut journey times between the two cities from 72 minutes to 27 minutes.

• A second high-speed route will run south from Leeds for about 23 miles, helping to cut the journey time to Sheffield from 42 to 24 minutes.

•A third stretch will run for 33 miles from Crewe to Manchester, to complete the western leg of HS2. It is unclear whether a new high-speed line will also be built from Manchester to Leeds, or whether this section will simply be upgraded.

Rail networks are struggling to cope at a time when there is pressure for people to ditch their cars, and opt for the greener option of the train. Passenger numbers in the morning rush hour rose in a decade by 41 per cent in Birmingham and 36 per cent in Manchester, on packed and slow-moving trains.

At present, trains between Reading and London run at almost double the average speed of 48mph achieved by trains between Manchester, Leeds and Bradford. Nottingham and Hull have the worst rail connections of Britain’s biggest 20 cities.

Under projections from the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), set up to provide government with impartial, expert advice on major long-term infrastructure challenges, an additional 190,000 commuters a day could travel to work by rail in ten cities outside London once the regional upgrades are complete.

Only have to wait 20 years to see the plan realised and unless there are specific announcements on timelines people journeys ain't going to improve anytime soon. Also the statement we want to create a rail commuter market to rival London doesn't need high speed infrastructure it needs the existing network sorting out with sufficient drivers and trains now with infrastructure improvement to follow.

 

[YorksLad12]

(and it’s not just national government, I lost count the number of times some regurgitated press release in the local paper announced that Kirkstall Forge station had taken a ‘major step forward’ over the decade or so it took to build the bloody thing)

Guilty as charged.

 

[Glenn1969]

More of ST article


Only have to wait 20 years to see the plan realised and unless there are specific announcements on timelines people journeys ain't going to improve anytime soon. Also the statement we want to create a rail commuter market to rival London doesn't need high speed infrastructure it needs the existing network sorting out with sufficient drivers and trains now with infrastructure improvement to follow.

I think it's crystal clear what will happen Manchester to Leeds. It will just be upgraded. Bradford will thus stay the worst connected major city in England for cost reasons

 

[matacaster]

I think it's crystal clear what will happen Manchester to Leeds. It will just be upgraded. Bradford will thus stay the worst connected major city in England for cost reasons

Bear in mind that Bradford council have had a number of opportunities to link the two stations and rather than supporting that in the latest case they built a truly horrid and out of keeping shopping centre on the easiest route between the two. Major problem with Bradford is its topography and Bradford Beck which floods around about every 40 years historically (and a tunnel for example would be below this). Other issues are that major white collar businesses find near neighbour Leeds to have good transport links, educated population, nightlife, restaurants. None of those are true for Bradford and if you live in Bradford, you have a 10 mile or so commute to a good job in Leeds (or Manchester 40 miles ish) now. I would presume that rail travel from Bradford for business reasons except commuting is fairly low. Many people and most big businesses tend to avoid Bradford given the choice.

 

[class26]

I also heard this week. So either Monday 14th or Friday 18th would be my guesses. Midnight Sunday would be perfect for me selfishly.

My speculation btw is MML sparks will not stop at Sheffield but be a rolling programme and go from Sheffield to Doncaster then Leeds then York and also go Nottingham to Sheffield.

HS2 eastern leg ‘to be scrapped after ministers reject £10bn to save 15 minutes’

Government will announce alternate rail upgrades, including a 42-mile stretch across the East Midlands, to appease rebellious Red Wall MPs

www.telegraph.co.uk

Torygraph saying Thursday as are most other papers this morning.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think it's crystal clear what will happen Manchester to Leeds. It will just be upgraded. Bradford will thus stay the worst connected major city in England for cost reasons

Thing is they will all stay poorly connected for at least 10 years unless something is done now to sort out the current shortage of drivers and sufficient rolling stock to at least lengthen all trains to minimum of 6-8 cars on the existing city commuter routes. This will then allow some modest modal transfer now which benefits air quality in the Northern cities as well as alleviating road congestion. A Billion of the 100B being bandied about for the IRP would be more than sufficient and could be executed in years not decades.

 

[city dweller]

The NIC Rail Needs Assessment used these numbers and look generous compared to the £96bn being mentioned.

- baseline budget (£86 billion) – a fiscal envelope consistent with the rail spending proposed in the National Infrastructure Assessment’s fiscal remit table

- plus 25 per cent (£108 billion) – a fiscal envelope that assumes the money available for rail spending is 25 per cent higher than in the baseline budget

- plus 50 per cent (£129 billion) - a fiscal envelope that assumes the money available for rail spending is 50 per cent higher than in the baseline budget.

 

[Greybeard33]

The NIC Rail Needs Assessment used these numbers and look generous compared to the £96bn being mentioned.

The NIC RNA budget numbers were for total rail investment in the Midlands and North from 2020 to 2045 at 2019/20 prices, including the costs of HS2 Phases 1 and 2a, traction decarbonisation and digital signalling. We do not know if the rumoured £96bn is calculated on the same basis.

 

[city dweller]

The NIC RNA budget numbers were for total rail investment in the Midlands and North from 2020 to 2045 at 2019/20 prices, including the costs of HS2 Phases 1 and 2a, traction decarbonisation and digital signalling. We do not know if the rumoured £96bn is calculated on the same basis.

Fair point. Interestingly the recent spending review increased the NIC budget although clearly won't apply to the IRP.

HM Treasury has also revised the “fiscal remit” given to the Commission, an envelope within which our recommendations must be funded. In 2016 the then Chancellor set public investment in economic infrastructure of 1.0 – 1.2% of GDP in each year between 2020 and 2050, and this has now been increased to 1.1 – 1.3% of GDP for 2025 – 55. This new spending envelope will inform the Commission’s approach in the second National Infrastructure Assessment, due to be published in 2023.

 

[Greybeard33]

According to the BBC:

Of the £96bn set aside for the new Integrated Rail Plan, £40bn will be new money, the BBC understands.

HS2 rail extension to Leeds set to be scrapped

Plans to extend the eastern leg of the high speed network will be ditched in favour of new shorter links.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ABB125]

According to the BBC:

HS2 rail extension to Leeds set to be scrapped

Plans to extend the eastern leg of the high speed network will be ditched in favour of new shorter links.

www.bbc.co.uk

£96b-£40b=£56b, which I believe was the original cost estimate for HS2 once the full scope had been determined. Coincidence?

 

[matacaster]

£96b-£46b=£56b, which I believe was the original cost estimate for HS2 once the full scope had been determined. Coincidence?

Maths fail here I'm afraid.

 

[ABB125]

Maths fail here I'm afraid.

Oops!

That should be £96-£40=£56. I've corrected the original post.

 

[Ianno87]

According to the FT, some of the NPR line will in fact be built: (https://www.ft.com/content/1b32c2db-12de-41d8-89c0-8a454fec378a)

Now some new line will be built from Manchester to a point close to Huddersfield but the rest of the route to Leeds will consist of upgrades to the existing “Transpennine” route.

 

[Purple Orange]

According to the FT, some of the NPR line will in fact be built: (https://www.ft.com/content/1b32c2db-12de-41d8-89c0-8a454fec378a)

That would be welcome news.

(Shame it is behind a paywall)

 

[Ianno87]

That would be welcome news.

(Shame it is behind a paywall)

Thread Tweeted here: https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1460319465665667076?t=qeBT7W5znpedNOSOGtVopw&s=19

Instead an entirely new high-speed railway from Manchester to Leeds, only some of a new line will be built from Manchester to a point close to Huddersfield. The rest of the route to Leeds will consist of upgrades to the existing Transpennine route. https://t.co/72IhvhbQSR

 

[Purple Orange]

Thread Tweeted here: https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1460319465665667076?t=qeBT7W5znpedNOSOGtVopw&s=19

It appears that Manchester is certainly winning on this front.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It appears that Manchester is certainly winning on this front.

The BBC relocated there didn't they?

 

[Halifaxlad]

Thread Tweeted here: https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1460319465665667076?t=qeBT7W5znpedNOSOGtVopw&s=19

Thanks, no suprise there then!

 

[Ianno87]

Thanks, no suprise there then!

If the FT story is true, strikes me as actually quite a clever solution. Build the bit of TRU around Huddersfield for some early benefits release and then connect part of NPR into it from the Manchester end**. Then the TRU work (which is hardly cheap) isn't abortive. And you've joined up the capacity elements of both, with a decent dent in Manchester-Leeds journey times.

An "Integrated" form of "Plan", one might say, for "Rail" services.

**Think of it as a super-duper version of the Micklehurst loop perhaps.