Hopefully not!
I can't see it.
First of all, the planned CP5 electrification ought to release over two hundred DMUs (based on existing commitments, not including "rumoured" bits like Hull). I know that things are already behind schedule and being pushed beyond April 2019, but
on the assumption that everything promised gets done, we have:
- Scotland - at least fifty DMUs, maybe seventy five. I reckon there's around fifty DMUs replaced directly by electrification (e.g. the Falkirk High line needs sixteen DMUs at rush hour, the Dunblane/Alloa - Edinburgh/ Glasgow routes need a similar amount, add on "southside" electrification to places like East Kilbride, there\s Shotts... ) and maybe twenty five/ thirty replaced by the twenty seven HSTs.
- Valley Lines - around fifty DMUs (the off peak diagrams through Cardiff Queen Street need thirty three DMUs, not including Ebbw Vale/ Maesteg/ Swanlinel, not including doubled up DMUs, not including peak extras, not including maintenance, so I think fifty DMUs would be my benchmark from south Wales)
- Thames Valley - around fifty DMUs (in rough terms, you'll need about nine 165/166s for the Redhill/Gatwick services and one for the Greenford brach, but apart from that all 165/166s could be replaced by electrification)
...so that's over a hundred and fifty DMUs.
There's probably the best part of fifty DMUs in the "Lancashire Triangle" area (Manchester to Liverpool/ Wigan/ Preston/ Blackpool/ Windermere, Liverpool to Wigan/ Preston/ Blackpool) and I reckon around thirty from the Transpennine corridor (assuming the existing services to Middlesbrough/ Scarborough are reduced/chopped).
You could possibly get to another fifty if you added up all of the little schemes (GOBLIN, Marston Vale, Chase, Nuneaton to Coventry, a couple of 180s from FGW, converting the Manchester - Bournemouth XC service to EMU operation, the WCML franchise bringing in "baby Pendolini" to replace some of their Voyagers).
Around thirty in the East Midlands (the entire fleet of 222s plus the Sprinters used on the Leicester - Nottingham stopper).
So, I reckon over two hundred DMUs, maybe three hundred (note - I'm not including any HSTs replaced by electrification as they can be assumed as life expired or are earmarked for Scotland) - possibly more if some services are revised to reflect the new electrification map (e.g. Cardiff - Portsmouth becomes an EMU from Swansea/Cardiff to Bristol and a DMU from Bristol to Portsmouth).
So,
if everything planned happens before CP5 ends in April 2019 (or at least by 31 December 2014) then we'll have enough DMUs to replace all Pacers. Bung in some D78s and there'll be plenty of DMUs.
However, a lot of the DMUs freed up are the wrong type for direct Pacer replacement (Voyagers, Meridians, 185s, 170s...) and all of the above is based on the assumption that he current plans do actually happen (given the delays and overspends, that's far from guaranteed).
Plus, there's the issue that Pacer replacement is only the first hurdle - we'll need to take large numbers of other DMUs out of service for months to upgrade them to accessibility standards (which won't be easy to arrange, given the numbers of Sprinters we are talking about), there's the future of 153s, there's a whole load of problems ahead of us (though I appreciate some will be fixated with Pacer replacement).
If you want "low hanging fruit" then there are a few lines with relatively frequent services (Warrington Central, Sheffield to Moorthorpe/Doncaster, Uckfield...) without having to worry about routes that only see an hourly service like Barrow in Furness.
However, I think we are better focussing resources on the schemes already committed to - if we are struggling to wire something like the Chat Moss line on time then adding additional schemes to Network Rail's "to do" list probably isn't going to help things.