Is it about time rail timetables returned to normal?

[Watershed]

It wasn’t clear, x2.

Well we will have to agree to disagree on that one.

But to come back to the titular question - yes, in fact it's past time for timetables to return to normal (even if you count the Dec TT as "normal"). Sadly there is no chance of that happening across the board in a timely manner.

 

[philosopher]

Well we will have to agree to disagree on that one.

But to come back to the titular question - yes, in fact it's past time for timetables to return to normal (even if you count the Dec TT as "normal"). Sadly there is no chance of that happening across the board in a timely manner.

I find that on these threads about service reductions, there are two camps. First are those who believe service reductions will result in fewer people using the railway, resulting in less income for the railway, meaning service reductions fail to save much or any money but result in a worse rail service.

Second are those who argue that service reductions will result in little long reductions to passenger numbers and so will save the Treasury considerable amounts of money, thus putting the railway in good position to recover passengers lost through the pandemic.

Personally I very much have the former view that if service reductions are being done to save money they are self defeating as I think less frequent and / or overcrowded trains will just end up driving passengers off the railway, particularly if they are leisure passengers. The exception to this is at peak times where demand has little chance of recovering to 2019 levels. That said, if resourcing issues means that it is not possible to run the previous timetable, then a reduced timetable is better than having loads of ad hoc cancellations as least passengers can plan round a reduced timetable, but they can’t plan round ad hoc cancellations.

 

[Bald Rick]

I find that on these threads about service reductions, there are two camps. First are those who believe service reductions will result in fewer people using the railway, resulting in less income for the railway, meaning service reductions fail to save much or any money but result in a worse rail service.

Second are those who argue that service reductions will result in little long reductions to passenger numbers and so will save the Treasury considerable amounts of money, thus putting the railway in good position to recover passengers lost through the pandemic.

Personally I very much have the former view that if service reductions are being done to save money they are self defeating as I think less frequent and / or overcrowded trains will just end up driving passengers off the railway, particularly if they are leisure passengers. The exception to this is at peak times where demand has little chance of recovering to 2019 levels. That said, if resourcing issues means that it is not possible to run the previous timetable, then a reduced timetable is better than having loads of ad hoc cancellations as least passengers can plan round a reduced timetable, but they can’t plan round ad hoc cancellations.

That’s a reasonable assessment.

The issue is that peak time commuters in the south east, and long distance travel (especially business travel), is what paid for the railway.

The former is barely half what it was, even at the peak of recovery last autumn. Long distance travel is ‘back’ (or will be in a few weeks), but with reduced business travel there is reduced yield and thus income, even for a similar level of passengers.

I’d be surprised if there is much in the way of longer term service reductions in the Intercity market, as it is largely revenue generative, with the possible exception of Cross Country.

I’d be surprised if there weren’t longer term service reductions in the London commuter market; as you say that market has fundamentally changed.

The interesting part is the rest. None of them make money - which means that the revenue lost from removing services is more than offset by the cost saving, even if none of the passengers on the removed services transfer to other services. However given where these services are located, and other Government commitments, the politics is “interesting”. But the there’s not enough money. So a politician is going to have to take a “courageous” decision: reduce services that will incur the wrath of a large number of regional interests, or go and ask the Treasury for more cash. Those who have dealt with Treasury will know how that invariably ends.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That’s hindsight 6/6 vision. That was not a definite position in mid December. The clear advice being given by Government (the Medical part) was to expect a rapid peak building up to mid January, with high levels of absence until late February. Hence the advice to plan on reduced timetables until the end of February.

Which is what has largely happened - the 7day average of positive tests is still, now, 65% higher than it was in mid December.

Not so sure it is

but the response was appropriate but as you say timing was lousy just before Xmas.

Almost all TOCs have plans to reinstate services over the next couple of weeks, plans which were activated a couple of weeks ago. Also within this mix is planning engineering works for Easter, whichever the TOCs have been doing for the last couple of weeks.

The operators not going back to their planned timetable will be those with Rest Day Working issues or continued high levels of absence. AIUI there’s 3, maybe 4 of the former, and one of the latter.

Its does beg the question why so many operators were allowed to uplift their timetables in Dec 21 only to have to scale them back because of other issues. I thought since May 2018 issues all timetable changes were being stressed tested to ensure they could be delivered.

 

[Bald Rick]

Its does beg the question why so many operators were allowed to uplift their timetables in Dec 21 only to have to scale them back because of other issues.

because the ‘other issues’ presented themselves rather later than when Dec 21 was ’all systems go’

I thought since May 2018 issues all timetable changes were being stressed tested to ensure they could be delivered.

they are. Albeit there’s been a lot more timetable changes in the last two years than expected.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

they are. Albeit there’s been a lot more timetable changes in the last two years than expected.

granted but the bi annual timetable changes are the ones that May 2018 process was supposed to apply to and particularly any operator that was planning significant change. Lets hope a new stress test question to an operator increasing its service level will be how much RDW do you need to deliver this timetable.

 

[dk1]

granted but the bi annual timetable changes are the ones that May 2018 process was supposed to apply to and particularly any operator that was planning significant change. Lets hope a new stress test question to an operator increasing its service level will be how much RDW do you need to deliver this timetable.

That would not be impossible to evaluate in advance. Differing circumstances on differing days make rest day working very unpredictable indeed.

 

[Bald Rick]

granted but the bi annual timetable changes are the ones that May 2018 process was supposed to apply to and particularly any operator that was planning significant change. Lets hope a new stress test question to an operator increasing its service level will be how much RDW do you need to deliver this timetable.

The process has been applied to all of them, not just the bi annual changes. By my count (which could be wrong) there’s been 10 changes in the last two years, with one more underway now and May 22 is only 14 weeks away.

For all the brickbats they get on here (not from you!) I think the timetable and resource planners have been the unsung heroes of the rail industry these last two years. I can’t think of any other ‘discipline’ in the industry who have had such a dramatic increase in workload, to deliver at such short notice, with so much riding on it, and lots of important people breathing down their necks.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

For all the brickbats they get on here (not from you!) I think the timetable and resource planners have been the unsung heroes of the rail industry these last two years. I can’t think of any other ‘discipline’ in the industry who have had such a dramatic increase in workload, to deliver at such short notice, with so much riding on it, and lots of important people breathing down their necks.

Indeed I know quite a few some still working most retired though and at least the operators kept the skills at privatisation. I would expect GBR to bring them under its umbrella but maybe divorcing it from rostering might not make that viable or sensible.

 

[306024]

For all the brickbats they get on here (not from you!) I think the timetable and resource planners have been the unsung heroes of the rail industry these last two years. I can’t think of any other ‘discipline’ in the industry who have had such a dramatic increase in workload, to deliver at such short notice, with so much riding on it, and lots of important people breathing down their necks.

Can’t let that pass without comment

Its not just the workload, but it is soul destroying work too. You are being asked to produce a worse service which you may not even agree with but have no say. In many cases there is simply insuffcient time to check all the nuances that exist in the WTT service, which can lead to unforseen gaps in the service.

And don’t forget the roster clerks who have to wait for the crew diagrams to be produced. They are the tail-end Charlie’s in the whole process who have even more time pressure.

 

[dk1]

And don’t forget the roster clerks who have to wait for the crew diagrams to be produced. They are the tail-end Charlie’s in the whole process who have even more time pressure.

Unsung heroes too. I have done rostering in the past & know what a thankless task it can be but bloody hell with all these mods too. As the service has picked up today I’ve noticed uncovered jobs appearing on the daily lists & duty managers sending out group emails asking for volunteers to RDW. We have no real issue with sickness either.

 

[Horizon22]

For all the brickbats they get on here (not from you!) I think the timetable and resource planners have been the unsung heroes of the rail industry these last two years. I can’t think of any other ‘discipline’ in the industry who have had such a dramatic increase in workload, to deliver at such short notice, with so much riding on it, and lots of important people breathing down their necks.

Certainly are - there have been maybe 7-10 timetable changes and so many STP plans when normally you'd have expected 4 LTP timetable changes (May '20, Dec '20, May '21, Dec '21). Also so many diagram changes for crew and stock. People complain about the lack of efficiency in diagrams (which is true) but when they've been rushed out in triple time, you can hardly complain. Have had to unpick some of these in "on-the-day" roles which certainly raises issues, but they are mostly receptive about making the change even if slammed.

And don’t forget the roster clerks who have to wait for the crew diagrams to be produced. They are the tail-end Charlie’s in the whole process who have even more time pressure.

Anyone doing planning and then trying to run the service (Control teams) have certainly done their bit the past two years and its been somewhat relentless!

As for getting back to normal, I am cautiously optimistic about near Dec '19 timetables in May '22 with some reasonable peak adjustments to disproportionately improve overall performance and reliability.

 

[Dr Day]

Slight tangent to the op but genuine question to any timetable planners/roster clerks etc out there - how much have automated tools facilitated with dealing with the excess over the last couple of years? I realise we have had separate threads relating to technology, just wondered how useful in practice the (theoretical) ability to throw all your constraints into a system which then spits out the 'optimal' results has actually been?

 

[Bald Rick]

As for getting back to normal, I am cautiously optimistic about near Dec '19 timetables in May '22 with some reasonable peak adjustments to disproportionately improve overall performance and reliability.

depends how ‘near’ you mean, but I can’t see May 22 being much different from Dec 21 in terms of overall service levels.

 

[Horizon22]

depends how ‘near’ you mean, but I can’t see May 22 being much different from Dec 21 in terms of overall service levels.

Well at some TOCs, that's pretty close to Dec '19. It really is a mixed bag and some places have handled it better than others (for a myriad of reasons). I think this original post was no doubt spurred on by the recent emergency timetables which in certain places was more like the immediate lockdown timetable back in April/May 2020.

 

[306024]

Slight tangent to the op but genuine question to any timetable planners/roster clerks etc out there - how much have automated tools facilitated with dealing with the excess over the last couple of years? I realise we have had separate threads relating to technology, just wondered how useful in practice the (theoretical) ability to throw all your constraints into a system which then spits out the 'optimal' results has actually been?

Technology helps if it is programmed correctly, but the sheer volume of data needed to make this work faultlessly is huge. Conflict detection for example in timetable planning has advanced considerably from the earlier systems. Similarly there are systems for crew diagramming. In the long term plan you have more time (usually) to play around to get the optimal solution, but you do need to stop some of the wilder ideas the computer will produce.

Now relevant to producing traincrew diagrams quickly it isn’t necessarily the optimum solution you want. It will still have to be rosterable as rosters only change at agreed dates, so damage limitation is more the name of the game. If you throw everything up in the air you could end up with crew diagrams being altered that didn’t need to be, with all the implications for the people rostered to those diagrams. Crew diagramming is a much more subtle art than mathematicians believe.

 

[LowLevel]

because the ‘other issues’ presented themselves rather later than when Dec 21 was ’all systems go’




they are. Albeit there’s been a lot more timetable changes in the last two years than expected.

Of course in some cases that's worked better than others. EMR are a good example - the Intercity/Connect timetable change more or less worked well.

Regional May '21 was a disaster in far more ways than COVID having pushed Nottingham station beyond it's capabilities and they're still trying to work out how to sort that out now.

Despite all that more trains still run than pre COVID which must be pretty unusual for the current state of the network.

 

[Bald Rick]

And don’t forget the roster clerks who have to wait for the crew diagrams to be produced. They are the tail-end Charlie’s in the whole process who have even more time pressure.

Of course. I perhaps erroneously include them in the category of ‘resource planners’. But Heroes all the same.

 

[greyman42]

Unsung heroes too. I have done rostering in the past & know what a thankless task it can be but bloody hell with all these mods too. As the service has picked up today I’ve noticed uncovered jobs appearing on the daily lists & duty managers sending out group emails asking for volunteers to RDW. We have no real issue with sickness either.

Heroes? Are they not just doing their job?

 

[dk1]

Heroes? Are they not just doing their job?

Just a figure of speech. Don’t take it too literally.

 

[greyman42]

Just a figure of speech. Don’t take it too literally.

Fair enough.

 

[Watershed]

Heroes? Are they not just doing their job?

They are, I think it's probably more a reference to the high level of stress and workload which people often experience in that kind of job.

 

[sjpowermac]

Looking a little further ahead, does anyone know if operators intend to return to ‘T-12’ in terms of informing customers of timetable changes?

I’m thinking particularly of the May timetable change, which should be in the public domain by no later than Sunday 20th February 2022.

It’s really hard to see how any operator could justify not returning to some semblance of normality by then…

 

[87015]

Looking a little further ahead, does anyone know if operators intend to return to ‘T-12’ in terms of informing customers of timetable changes?

I’m thinking particularly of the May timetable change, which should be in the public domain by no later than Sunday 20th February 2022.

It’s really hard to see how any operator could justify not returning to some semblance of normality by then…

More than likely gone medium term if not forever.

 

[sjpowermac]

More than likely gone medium term if not forever.

Many thanks for the reply.
It does seem surprising though that the industry can’t anticipate the timetable it will be running in 3 months time.

 

[Watershed]

Looking a little further ahead, does anyone know if operators intend to return to ‘T-12’ in terms of informing customers of timetable changes?

I’m thinking particularly of the May timetable change, which should be in the public domain by no later than Sunday 20th February 2022.

It’s really hard to see how any operator could justify not returning to some semblance of normality by then…

The May timetable is already in the public domain for most, if not all, operators. Though I would take what's currently published with a truckload of salt, as it's extremely liable to change.

The only TOCs who are selling tickets even close to T-12 are those in a good position in terms of traincrew route and traction knowledge, and headcount. Which represents about 2 or 3 operators across the industry.

Unfortunately it will be a very long and painful recovery, and many lines will never see pre-Covid levels of services again.

 

[Bald Rick]

Looking a little further ahead, does anyone know if operators intend to return to ‘T-12’ in terms of informing customers of timetable changes?

In terms of selling tickets, yes they will get to T-12 and further out.

Albeit there will be the potential for anyone buying a ticket further out than T-8 to have their itinerary changed. But that’s only for journeys taken at times liable for engineering works, ie some weekends and late night.

 

[sjpowermac]

The May timetable is already in the public domain for most, if not all, operators. Though I would take what's currently published with a truckload of salt, as it's extremely liable to change.

The only TOCs who are selling tickets even close to T-12 are those in a good position in terms of traincrew route and traction knowledge, and headcount. Which represents about 2 or 3 operators across the industry.

Unfortunately it will be a very long and painful recovery, and many lines will never see pre-Covid levels of services again.

Yes, I can see what you are saying about the truckload of salt. Not particularly helpful though for customers wishing to plan ahead (I’m talking about regular customers here rather than just train enthusiasts).

Quite so about route and traction knowledge, some TOCs seem to have weathered that storm rather better than others.

In terms of selling tickets, yes they will get to T-12 and further out.

Albeit there will be the potential for anyone buying a ticket further out than T-8 to have their itinerary changed. But that’s only for journeys taken at times liable for engineering works, ie some weekends and late night.

Many thanks for the reply. Yes, I can see what you are saying about engineering work.

It does seem extraordinary though that some TOCs are unable to commit to a base timetable for May.

 

[Bald Rick]

It does seem extraordinary though that some TOCs are unable to commit to a base timetable for May.

It’s been a very tough few months in the planning teams of some TOCs. Nevertheless nearly all TOCs have their intended base timetable in now (no salt required).

 

[sjpowermac]

It’s been a very tough few months in the planning teams of some TOCs. Nevertheless nearly all TOCs have their intended base timetable in now (no salt required).

I’m not saying that you are wrong, but I’m struggling to see how both your post and the one below can both be correct:

The May timetable is already in the public domain for most, if not all, operators. Though I would take what's currently published with a truckload of salt, as it's extremely liable to change.

The only TOCs who are selling tickets even close to T-12 are those in a good position in terms of traincrew route and traction knowledge, and headcount. Which represents about 2 or 3 operators across the industry.