Is London becoming a problem again?

[Enthusiast]

Also bear in mind that there can be delays in reporting, so the daily figures are less meaningful than longer term rolling figures.

Indeed, the seven day rolling average of deaths peaked on 13th April at 851. Since then they have dropped every single day until two days ago, when the figure rose from 244 to 251. 256 yesterday and 253 today. Wednesday's average figure increase was caused by Wednesday's actual number of 412 - the first time the figure had exceeded 400 for more than a week. It could, of course, be something to do with dodgy reporting over the BH weekend, but the seven day average would smooth that out.

I know it sounds callous but I still think it's important not to concentrate too much on deaths when examining the effects of the lockdown and relaxation of restrictions.

I haven't seen any figures which suggest London is again becoming problematic. I believe there were two days in the last week when no new cases at all were reported and the daily average is now at 24 (against a national average of over 2,000). I think it is well accepted that London currently has the lowest rate of new infections in the country.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

With this unprecedented hot weather, there is also the issue of dehydration that can require admission to hospital

 

[Jayden99]

This would, however, be roughly the time we'd expect to see deaths from the VE day parties/essential conga lines. I think the figures over the next few days will be interesting to watch with regards to future relaxation of social distancing

 

[Bletchleyite]

The time between infection and death is around three/four weeks and so any increase in deaths (which have steadily fallen consistently over the past six weeks and are now around 1/3 peak) would not relate to any recent change in behaviour/restrictions.

In addition it is really hard to become infected in the open air and so all these recent pictures of (allegedly) crowded beaches are a complete irrelevance.

Most of them aren't as crowded as the photo suggests, either - a 2D photo taken from one end tends to show people crammed together when they're not. Families on beaches are normally more than 2m apart!

 

[MikeWM]

This would, however, be roughly the time we'd expect to see deaths from the VE day parties/essential conga lines. I think the figures over the next few days will be interesting to watch with regards to future relaxation of social distancing

The number of new infections have been consistently falling off - considerably - each week in May, despite the ramp-up in testing (ie. so a bigger % of the total number of active cases should be being recorded over time - that the recorded number of new cases is dropping, given that fact, is really good news).

So hard to see where any spike in deaths could emerge from - they should continue to decrease for the next couple of weeks, at least. As I mentioned in a earlier post in this thread, the rate will be decreasing less fast than infections are, but it should continue to go down.

 

[PG]

Most of them aren't as crowded as the photo suggests, either - a 2D photo taken from one end tends to show people crammed together when they're not. Families on beaches are normally more than 2m apart!

Indeed there is less risk of airborne contraction outdoors but that doesn't account for any physical touch contact with surfaces (e.g. a handrail) coupled with limited (or closed) hand-washing facilities.

 

[Mag_seven]

I don't know who Chris Giles is but he sounds like one of those lockdown enthusiasts desperate to cling to every little bit of (unconfirmed) bad news in an effort to get the lockdown extended.

He's the economics editor of the Financial Times.

Which makes him (Chris Giles) just as qualified to talk about medical matters as the bloke down the pub.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I know it sounds callous but I still think it's important not to concentrate too much on deaths when examining the effects of the lockdown and relaxation of restrictions.

yep, does sound callous! Exactly what the government wants....ignore the deaths!

 

[Jamesrob637]

Well, 215 today is nearly a quarter lower than last Saturday and that's after a 4-day working week when you would expect daily totals to be a little higher as figures are condensed into fewer days.

So I'm still optimistic about seeing double figures tomorrow and Monday as posted earlier in the week.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well, 215 today is nearly a quarter lower than last Saturday and that's after a 4-day working week when you would expect daily totals to be a little higher as figures are condensed into fewer days.

So I'm still optimistic about seeing double figures tomorrow and Monday as posted earlier in the week.

Deaths yes, but there has been a pronounced uptick in cases and this was pointed out on the press conference.

 

[Bayum]

Which makes him (Chris Giles) just as qualified to talk about medical matters as the bloke down the pub.

If we take that attitude towards anything then we should only be listening to SAGE and the government regarding Covid, surely?

 

[Jamesrob637]

Deaths yes, but there has been a pronounced uptick in cases and this was pointed out on the press conference.

Wasn't that the case (no pun intended) a few weeks ago but it didn't lead to many, if any, more deaths?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Wasn't that the case (no pun intended) a few weeks ago but it didn't lead to many, if any, more deaths?

That does remain to be seen.

 

[Qwerty133]

If we take that attitude towards anything then we should only be listening to SAGE and the government regarding Covid, surely?

No we should only be listening to SAGE about the basic statistics and how they should be interpreted relating to the numbers of people dying or being diagnosed but the effects of lock down extend way beyond their remit and therefore it is important to listen to others including economists when discussing the lock down and relaxations of it. This is because SAGE are solely focusing on Covid related deaths whereas decisions relating to the lock out need to pay attention to all types of deaths both now and in the future that could be brought forward by continuing lock down.

 

[Qwerty133]

Deaths yes, but there has been a pronounced uptick in cases and this was pointed out on the press conference.

With people now being told to get a test if they are symptomatic you'd expect some uptick in cases (as previously many who are not currently working out of home didn't see a need to get tested). The more interesting bit is that more than half of the estimated number of new daily cases aren't being picked up, despite there seemingly being no issues in the supply of tests meaning people can't get one. This would suggest that either more than half of infections are asymptomatic (which would hopefully mean track and trace will catch most of these and the spread will start to fall rapidly) or that the majority of people still aren't listening to the advice. It's also interesting to see the sheer numbers of people claiming to be symptomatic testing negative considering we are now well into the hay fever season so there should be very few people developing new hay fever symptoms and that social distancing should have also had a major impact on reducing the spread of other viruses. This would suggest that there is either a large number of people asking for tests that they do not need (but why?), there is some other virus spreading that has similar symptoms and is even more infectious or that the tests aren't as reliable as they'd like people to believe.

 

[MikeWM]

Deaths yes, but there has been a pronounced uptick in cases and this was pointed out on the press conference.

More people are being tested. Even considering that, the number is well down on the number reported last Saturday.

 

[Starmill]

I don't know who Chris Giles is but he sounds like one of those lockdown enthusiasts desperate to cling to every little bit of (unconfirmed) bad news in an effort to get the lockdown extended.

This is complete rubbish. You're just doing a character assassination and posting nonsense about someone because you don't agree with the OP.

 

[Mojo]

London this afternoon is very busy although public transport less so. Huge numbers walking and cycling in the main hotspots; Buckingham Palace, Hyde Park Corner, and the Victoria Embankment. People sunbathing, having picnics or other fun. Leicester Sq area remained quiet. Age groups were almost entirely young looking (under 30 but not many children) so very low risk for the virus but still capable of spreading it.

 

[Enthusiast]

Exactly what the government wants....ignore the deaths!

Please read my entire post. I said "...it's important not to concentrate too much on deaths when examining the effects of the lockdown and relaxation of restrictions." I don't really know what the government wants, and I doubt many people do.

 

[Huntergreed]

No we should only be listening to SAGE about the basic statistics and how they should be interpreted relating to the numbers of people dying or being diagnosed but the effects of lock down extend way beyond their remit and therefore it is important to listen to others including economists when discussing the lock down and relaxations of it. This is because SAGE are solely focusing on Covid related deaths whereas decisions relating to the lock out need to pay attention to all types of deaths both now and in the future that could be brought forward by continuing lock down.

Exactly, the sole focus of the government seems to be decided on the advice of purely medical and epidemiological scientists. I’m guessing that’s why there’s been no reduction to 1m and a very reluctant attitude to lifting restrictions and getting the economy going again.

We just need to hope someone at the top of the government can see beyond Covid and analyse the bigger picture to try and take the best path forward from a wider perspective, however I must admit I’m not hopeful that’s going to happen anytime soon. Specifically in Scotland where the restrictions are still quite cautious and Sturgeon is under the mad illusion that we will be remaining within 5 miles of our homes until August, turning a blind eye to the damage caused to the tourist, leisure and hospitality industries in doing so.

“Guided by the science” is becoming “guided by a small portion of the medical science”, too much focus on one aspect of the crisis will cause damage on a much larger scale than an appropriate amount of focus on all aspects.

 

[317 forever]

Given that there is more breaking of the social distancing advice in London than in many other places, it is encouraging how few new cases of Corona are emerging there.

With an estimated 17% in London but just 5% elsewhere having already had Corona however mild, this suggests that most people in London vulnerable to it will already have had it by now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The weekend figures aren't meaningful, there are hardly any tests processed then.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With an estimated 17% in London but just 5% elsewhere having already had Corona however mild, this suggests that most people in London vulnerable to it will already have had it by now.

I think you're slightly misunderstanding the "vulnerable" thing. If you're vulnerable to COVID that means there's a good chance if you get it you'll die. It doesn't mean they are more likely to get it (though some will be, the immunosuppressed people).

 

[AM9]

I think you're slightly misunderstanding the "vulnerable" thing. If you're vulnerable to COVID that means there's a good chance if you get it you'll die. It doesn't mean they are more likely to get it (though some will be, the immunosuppressed people).

Surely, the 'vulnerable' group comprises those that are less robust in their resistance, typically those over (arbitrarily) 70 years of age. Those who are shielded and for whom COVID-19 would represent a high risk of death, are being released tomorrow for safe distance outings with co-residents or a single non-resident adult.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely, the 'vulnerable' group comprises those that are less robust in their resistance, typically those over (arbitrarily) 70 years of age. Those who are shielded and for whom COVID-19 would represent a high risk of death, are being released tomorrow for safe distance outings with co-residents or a single non-resident adult.

Resilience rather than resistance, i.e. they are more likely to die of it, not they are more likely to catch it (though that will be true to a lesser extent).

 

[Butts]

London certainly could become a problem again with all those idiots protesting in Trafalgar Square today and not adhering to social distancing.

 

[Huntergreed]

London certainly could become a problem again with all those idiots protesting in Trafalgar Square today and not adhering to social distancing.

Couldn’t have happened at a worse time either, as if there is a spike because of this, it will appear in evidence as if it was due to the lifting of restrictions tomorrow, and that could result in the lockdown being reinstated or prolonged simply because people can’t control themselves.

 

[Silverlinky]

Daily New Cases
Sunday 03/05 4339
Sunday 10/05 3923
Sunday 17/05 3534
Sunday 24/05 2405
Sunday 31/05 1936

Daily Deaths Reported
Sunday 03/05 315
Sunday 10/05 268
Sunday 17/05 170
Sunday 24/05 118
Sunday 31/05 113

5 Sundays in May, figures for both new cases and deaths down every week consecutively. (figures from Worldometer)

 

[Jamesrob637]

The weekend figures aren't meaningful, there are hardly any tests processed then.

Just compare apples with apples and it is slowly decreasing. 113 today means the chances of seeing double digits tomorrow is a bit lower than I initially thought but then we are the days/week after a Bank Holiday weekend so you could probably revise today's and tomorrow's figures 5-10% down had we had 5 working days last week not 4. I estimate today's 113 would've been low-mid 100s after a 5-day working week.

The 7 day rolling average has, however, just started to drop again after having been almost flat during the short working week.

 

[philosopher]

Couldn’t have happened at a worse time either, as if there is a spike because of this, it will appear in evidence as if it was due to the lifting of restrictions tomorrow, and that could result in the lockdown being reinstated or prolonged simply because people can’t control themselves.

All those attending this protest should be publicly told through the media to self isolate for two weeks by the government or mayor of London.