Is the Thameslink idea flawed

[rugby_cal]

Heard on th grapevine that in the next few weeks NR are going to announce the Thameslink work at London Bridge will be delayed or descoped.

Things are way over budget :cry:

 

[yorksrob]

Heard on th grapevine that in the next few weeks NR are going to announce the Thameslink work at London Bridge will be delayed or descoped.

Things are way over budget :cry:

Fingers crossed they'll keep the trainshed!

 

[yorkie]

37 trains per hour is only possible on metro services (e.g. the Circle line) because trains on those lines tend to be self-contained and won't be affected by delays from other services, which will have a knock-on effect on punctuality..

I think you meant the Central line? The circle line isn't that frequent and is far from self-contained!

 

[jon0844]

And the cost? £80,000 in 1920 prices.

I bet passengers were better behaved back then though!

I have my doubts about running 20 or 24tph through the core, and when it goes a bit wrong - BOY will it go wrong!

I guess the operator will have to be prepared to switch to an emergency timetable very quickly to try and get things back to normal.

As said above, on a normal line you generally get the next train - they all go the same way (some may stop early, but that's usually about it). On TL, you have loads of different destinations and stopping patterns.

I have no doubt it will be a disaster unless the signalling is very stable and reliable and the same goes for the rolling stock.

If I hear Bombardier win the tender, then I know it will be doomed.

 

[Daniel]

37 trains per hour is only possible on metro services (e.g. the Circle line) because trains on those lines tend to be self-contained and won't be affected by delays from other services, which will have a knock-on effect on punctuality.

I think you meant the Central line? The circle line isn't that frequent and is far from self-contained!

Indeed, I was going to have to comment on this one - the Circle has 6 trains in each direction at a time - hardly 37! Plus the fact it's interaction with the Hammersmith, Metropolitan and District lines mean it has major problems with delays on other services!

 

[jon0844]

Passenger modelling is a very important part of this, many rail stations are full to the brim of passengers and can cause a lot of delay in peak periods, Birmingham New Street being one such example. This is all taken into account when assessing new schemes.

Indeed a whole profession is dedicated to it and conferences are held.

And that would be why both the new corridors to the Northern Line (King's Cross) and the escalator arrangement for the TL platforms are so well thought out - having large numbers of passengers crossing paths. It's as if nobody ever actually thought about real life - and live in a computer simulation.

I guess the same modelling was used to design the X-crossing at Oxford Circus where everyone crashes into each other in the middle. Funnily enough, they don't in Japan because they're somewhat more polite and forgiving. Couple that with the cyclists that don't take any notice of the red lights and the buses/cars that get stuck on the junction because of the road layout on Regent Street and there's all the ingredients for a nasty accident or fatality.

But, someone thought it was a good idea back in an office somewhere!

 

[mackenzie_blu]

Heard on th grapevine that in the next few weeks NR are going to announce the Thameslink work at London Bridge will be delayed or descoped.

Things are way over budget :cry:

Not quite true as Network Rail is still working out what it wants to do at London Bridge. The final actual plan is due to be completed in March (2010 that is) so to say they are reducing it when no complete plan was in place is abit pushing the truth.

And yes the project is over budget with Blackfriars currently running 3 months late.

 

[Metroland]

I think you meant the Central line? The circle line isn't that frequent and is far from self-contained!

The circle line is one of the least frequent and has one of the lowest capacities currently.

Weekday passengers:

Northern: 660,395
Central Line: 589,734
Disrict line: 556,252
Picadilly line: 529,550
Jubilee line: 405,878
Bakerloo line: 302,869
Circle line: 288,126
Metropolitan: 186,271
Hammersmith & City: 149,405


One of the most intense tube line currently the headway on the Victoria line which slightly more than two minutes with total limitation of 28 trains per hour in the peak controlled by the 1960s Coburg Street, this will be upgraded to 36tph moving block from Highgate. 36tph is the target for most of the deep level LUL lines.

I believe the Jubliee line carries more passengers, because the trains are a mix of 6 and 7 cars, with a current limit of 33,000pph, but they plan to increase this to 39,000pph.

Some of the subsurface lines like the Circle line have particular problems with junctions as its already been pointed out, though LUL are planning the increase the capacity by 65% percent.

24 tph is actually a 150 second headway or 2.5 mins, which is near the practical limit for surface interurban heavy rail. It's also the planned design of Crossrail too.

90 seconds is typical of many metros around the world, although some degree of automatic driving is usually present.

150 second headways operate on quite a few lines heavy rail line around London in the peak, lines out of Paddington spring to mind, some of the lines around London bridge, Stratford and in South London also operate at these levels every day.

Here is a plan of the Great Western line showing headways

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse...gnalling headways/signalling headways map.pdf

Here is a plan of SR lines out of Victoria

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse.../sussex rus baselining - current headways.pdf

 

[Minstral25]

This doesn't actually sound a lot does it but I did some timing of this at City and Blackfriars on a regular basis and found most 319 and 377 do it in around this time so its possible.

What does worry me is have anyone seen what happens before the Ashford/Rochester service? Commuters line the platforms by the yellow line blocking all other commuters so image what its like when you start mixing all these different lines on platforms that aren't ideal for all this. I await to see the final design of these trains as I fear the ones we are going to get are going to make matters worse. The easy boarding/exiting of the Alstrom bid made me back this train above the Siemens/Bombardier bids.

Having today (about 6pm) used St P to go down the Wimbledon route to Sutton (first time), I was surprised how empty the station was, and then I got on a rush hour train that could not have been more than 20% full.

Getting on Trains at Victoria or London Bridge at the same time and they are rammed solid - I've even been left on the platform. So perhaps currently the trains don't go where people want to go - except the Ashford/Rochester service.

I don't believe they will fill up trains in 30 seconds when the platform is lined with people for different trains all passing through within 15 minutes - squeezing through will take ages. Especially at City Thameslink, Blackfriars and London Bridge - The latter I expect there will be no seats left.

Hope they have planned it well and maybe frequency of trains is the key that will make it work

 

[mackenzie_blu]

Having today (about 6pm) used St P to go down the Wimbledon route to Sutton (first time), I was surprised how empty the station was, and then I got on a rush hour train that could not have been more than 20% full.

Getting on Trains at Victoria or London Bridge at the same time and they are rammed solid - I've even been left on the platform. So perhaps currently the trains don't go where people want to go - except the Ashford/Rochester service.

I don't believe they will fill up trains in 30 seconds when the platform is lined with people for different trains all passing through within 15 minutes - squeezing through will take ages. Especially at City Thameslink, Blackfriars and London Bridge - The latter I expect there will be no seats left.

Hope they have planned it well and maybe frequency of trains is the key that will make it work

Its actually quiet this week on the Core stations. There has been a drop from people fed up with FCC going alternate ways but they are starting to come back as the service improves. Although St Pancras isn't where trains fill up going south. There is a real spilt between the Core stations with Blackfriars/City mainly used by southbound passengers.

Yes by the time a train leaves London bridge it will be very full.

 

[The Box Photter]

In the peak hours, passenger flows from St Pancras Int'l on FCC tend to be passengers wishing to travel north (about 50% to St Albans). Southbound FCC passengers tend to use City Thameslink, Blackfriars and until the recent timetable changes, London Bridge.

I really can't see how widening the Thameslink idea to include such destinations as Cambridge, Peterborough, Kings Lynn and various South Coast retirement resorts represents an improvement to passengers. What it does risk, however, is added complication and more opportunities for whoever wins the franchise to make commuters' lives a misery.

I have lost count of the number of times I've explained to foreign tourists that the train they have just squeezed onto does not call at Luton Airport Parkway. At the moment, all they have to do is change at either Harpenden or Luton Town. What happens when they find out that the train they have just boarded is going nowhere near Luton Airport and they are left on the platform at Finsbury Park or some other GN station?

Time to stop wasting money on an already failing franchise and use the funds instead to employ enough drivers to run the core services.

 

[Metroland]

Just a quick point about 30 second dwell times. The Southern Region and Southern Railway have been running those sorts of dwell times for years. This is why on inner suburban lines some of the trains had doors at every seat.

Really what you are running on the Southern and parts of the Eastern, is a service where a train comes in, loads and unloads as quickly as it can, and another train comes in directly behind pretty much as quick as physically possible (although distance to go cab based moving block is slightly more efficient than block signalling with drivers anticipating line-side signals).

This happens day in and day out, and it is a tribute to staff that the service runs as well as it does with timekeeping in excess of 90% on most lines.

It was found with some of the newer trains recently that they take longer to load than the older stock, possibly because of the power operated doors. This is why some of the times were extended and timetables more padded out.

A certain amount of 'recovery time' is put into all railway timetables for these eventualities and has been since the dawn of railways.

 

[jon0844]

Does FCC (TL) still run a couple of queue buster trains north from Farringdon? I am guessing not as I think they came in from the now-closed Moorgate section didn't they? Or do they start from another station, running empty for a bit?

I do think that there are going to be problems with already busy trains going through the core - even if they're 12 cars long (surely all of them won't be - which causes problems in itself, for those standing in the wrong sections) and perhaps there's scope for some trains starting and stopping in the core.

What about trains passing through that don't even stop at St Pancras - allowing some catch up time? Obviously you've got an issue with catching up on a service in front - but for people travelling from south to north - not wishing to stop in London - there might be scope for at least one train per hour in each direction. Then, there's a chance of people getting on a train at a station slightly further north/south as appropriate that might otherwise be packed.

 

[Minstral25]

Just a quick point about 30 second dwell times. The Southern Region and Southern Railway have been running those sorts of dwell times for years. This is why on inner suburban lines some of the trains had doors at every seat.

This happens day in and day out, and it is a tribute to staff that the service runs as well as it does with timekeeping in excess of 90% on most lines.

It was found with some of the newer trains recently that they take longer to load than the older stock, possibly because of the power operated doors. This is why some of the times were extended and timetables more padded

Those dwell times are fine at most Southern Stations - I would second your tribute to the staff who as a generality are very good.

However have you seen the dwell on the Brighton FCC trains at London Bridge in the rush hour. Fortunately platform 5 is wide so there is not much mix with the other passengers but I reckon up to 2 minutes to get the passengers off and on -especially as passengers do not naturally move down the train without cajoling. along with the panic to get on as sometimes the train leaves people on the platform as they can't physically get on. Of course that problem has now been solved as in the new timetable there is no southbound FCC Brighton train in the rush hour now!!!

That diversion of trains is worth a thread in itself as the Southern Trains which were already massively overcrowded now have all the FCC passengers on them. Of course I not expecting any help from the authorities on that nor do I expect do Southern - having to lend their new trains to FCC for 5 years is not helpful. They'll come back when they are not needed any more as in 2015 the new long Thameslink services will be serving the same stations

 

[jon0844]

By 2015 they'll all have fallen to bits too. Southern may already have its interior, but in 5 years, it will need to be replaced anyway. May as well have had FCC colours inside now.

And seeing how the disabled toilet doors like to stick, there's no way they'll be operational in 2015!!!

 

[shinkansen1966]

Think there is some long term intention of running northbound Thameslink train to destinations other than Luton/Bedford. Indeed, just north of St Pancras International (Thameslink basement platforms), there's a new piece of track which would allow Thameslink trains to run upto Finsbury Park and north to Peterborough/Cambridge.

Does anyone know what's happening about this ?

 

[SWT Driver]

http://www.thameslinkprogramme.co.uk/app/webroot/cms/pages/home

 

[mackenzie_blu]

Think there is some long term intention of running northbound Thameslink train to destinations other than Luton/Bedford. Indeed, just north of St Pancras International (Thameslink basement platforms), there's a new piece of track which would allow Thameslink trains to run upto Finsbury Park and north to Peterborough/Cambridge.

Does anyone know what's happening about this ?

Its not track *yet*. Its a tunnel that they built the same time the works on St Pancras. Its empty with no track, OHLE or signals.

 

[jon0844]

Its not track *yet*. Its a tunnel that they built the same time the works on St Pancras. Its empty with no track, OHLE or signals.

It's all stuff to go wrong. FCC struggled recently to run a service on the sections of TL that had track, overhead lines and signals.

 

[Waddon]

They should keep to the core route that they have today, albeit with more frequent services, and all southeastern and Sutton loop line services terminating at Blackfriars (inconvenient for some, but with a high frequency core service, you won't have to wait long for an onward train).

Maybe run between 6 and 8tph from each of Bedford / Luton / St.Albans through to terminate at either East Croydon (via the South Croydon turnback), Three Bridges or Brighton. Forget about all those other destinations, which all already have good connections along the route. Keep to a simple core route and the line will function, but have trains filtering in from all kinds of places and chaos will inevitably ensue.

Only with that kind of simplicity will the core section be able to handle the train numbers required.

p.s. on a slightly different note, they should reinstate the centre platform at New Cross Gate too, so that Thameslink passengers can change directly onto the East London line, which would cut back on London Bridge congestion for Docklands passengers

 

[tbtc]

To put things in perspective, 24 trains an hour in one direction is comparable with what Edinburgh Waverley's platforms deal with - with trains to dozens of different destinations.

Thameslink is going to manage that number of trains with a bigger amount of destinations than now, with just one platform taking them all...

 

[jon0844]

Tonight, my 1740 train at Old Street was 'down' 9 minutes at Essex Road due to a train stuck at Drayton Park. No way to pass, so we had to wait - underground and out of phone coverage (to check). The train in front continued to lose time, but went off after Alexandra Palace, so we maybe gained a minute or two before arriving at Welwyn Garden City.

I am not sure exactly why it is, but there are a number of trains that are about 5 minutes apart - then a larger break of 10-15 minutes. This provides an element of recovery time so the delays don't run late into the evening.

With 24tph in the central core, will there be any recovery time? How long will it take to get things back on track (sic)?

Will trains simply be terminated, forcing EVERYONE off to try and board a packed train behind (and those who had a seat are now probably going to stand)? Will trains be reversed or taken out completely?

Obviously I can't say what the failure rates will be like on the new trains in 5+ years from now, but going on what is happening today, it's inevitable that there will be a problem almost every single day. As said before, if it was a normal tube service, people would just board the next train.. but it doesn't work like that with multiple destinations.

What possibly would have worked better is if there had been the construction somewhere of a terminus in central London (perhaps Blackfriars or thereabouts) where the trains that come from different places in the south could terminate - and then you boarded trains to Bedford (one nice simple route) from there. Brighton to Bedford (and thus the airports) could run straight through - being the only trains to do so.

Likewise, at some point trains could go from this southern terminus to Bedford, Peterborough and Cambridge.

Designed properly, you'd be able to change trains quite easily and timetabled properly, you should be able to do it with the minimum of delay. It removes pressure on the central core and, sort of, restores the blockade running that seemed to work pretty effectively.

 

[shinkansen1966]

The Thameslink 2000 programme deserves to succeed.

The original Thameslink idea impressed the money men at HM Treasury because it provided a through service to replace two sets of terminating trains: one set terminating at Moorgate/St Pancras from the north; and the other set terminating at Holborn Viaduct from the south. Less rolling stock was needed to replace the previous terminating services, because terminating trains have to dwell at their...err...terminus ! A through train is revenue earning service.

By 2015, we will have the finished TL2000 product, providing more through trains linking Peterborough, Cambridge, Bedford, Luton in the north with Croydon, inner Kent, Gatwick and Brighton in south. If you have a through train replacing two sets of terminating services, you need less rolling stock than those two sets of terminating trains.

Passengers from these home counties destinations will be distributed across central London and are less likely to need the Tube to reach their final destination. And that takes the strain off the tube.

Operating 12 car trains and more frequent services should help to cope with crowding problems of Thameslink today.

It's another matter as to whether St Pancras International (Thameslink basement) platforms will cope with 48 train per hours (24 north, 24 south) will all those passengers.

I suspect 24 tph is a headline figure and will only be seen in the peaks. At the moment, there are 10 tph in each direction on the central core. Add services from Peterborough (2 tph) and Cambridge (6 tph) and you have 16 tph. Mind you, it only takes one or two delays for confusion and cancellations and for things to get messy at St Pancras or Farringdon....

 

[Minstral25]

They should keep to the core route that they have today, albeit with more frequent services, and all southeastern and Sutton loop line services terminating at Blackfriars (inconvenient for some, but with a high frequency core service, you won't have to wait long for an onward train).

Maybe run between 6 and 8tph from each of Bedford / Luton / St.Albans through to terminate at either East Croydon (via the South Croydon turnback), Three Bridges or Brighton. Forget about all those other destinations, which all already have good connections along the route. Keep to a simple core route and the line will function, but have trains filtering in from all kinds of places and chaos will inevitably ensue.

Only with that kind of simplicity will the core section be able to handle the train numbers required.

p.s. on a slightly different note, they should reinstate the centre platform at New Cross Gate too, so that Thameslink passengers can change directly onto the East London line, which would cut back on London Bridge congestion for Docklands passengers

Waddon - I couldn't agree more.

Keep the route simple - no crossing tracks at Blackfriars every thing to London Bridge and down the Brighton Main line then no conjestion south of Blackfriars.

Same in reverse to Northern destinations at St Pancreas and forget the Great Northern connections - bet the service would run a treat that way with new stock, infrastructure etc.

The centre platform at New Cross is in working order as a Train I recently stopped there on an early morning train from East Croydon that was stopping Norwood Jnct, New Cross Gate and London Bridge.

Additionally speaking to the Southern Managers at a recent Meet the Manager session - they hadn't thought about it but are now looking to stop semi-fasts at New Cross Gate from the new timetable in May.

 

[jopsuk]

6tph to/from Cambridge? There's only four I thought? Two Cambridge Express (one splitting to/from Kings Lynn), one semi-fast and one taking all the stops on the Hitchin-Cambridge branch as well as a few south of there? The other Cambridge services (two off peak, up to four in the peaks) are on the West Anglia.

I do agree on the "keep it simple" idea though. Changing from the GN to Thameslink is now pretty damn easy, and will be better once all the building work is finished. Whilst it would be nice to be able to travel to the south coast without changing from up here, it's hardly essential.

 

[jon0844]

A through train is revenue earning service.

My suggestion wouldn't see through trains being cut, but just less of them. It also has other benefits, namely people trying to board trains within the core that are packed with people travelling through.

You can reduce the trains going through the core, and at off-peak times, combine the passengers from shorter trains into one 12-car train that continues on.

As long as you have your regular clockface services, you can then vary the services throughout the rest of the day as needed. At off-peak times, you could very well have more trains going through the core.

It means tearing up the timetable and starting over, but that's going to have to happen to a certain extent with the merging of TL and GN anyway.

Of course, this idea can't be reality as that magical place that can turn that many trains around doesn't exist!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I do agree on the "keep it simple" idea though. Changing from the GN to Thameslink is now pretty damn easy, and will be better once all the building work is finished. Whilst it would be nice to be able to travel to the south coast without changing from up here, it's hardly essential.

A couple of services that go south to Gatwick or Brighton would be nice but as you say, not essential.

King's Cross will be fully restored/expanded by then - so considering there's not a very long walk from platforms 9-11 (soon 10-12) then it isn't hard to walk over to change to TL - and it also helps reduce the trains running through.

I wonder if it will end up being like London Bridge was, where there are less trains in peak hours than off-peak (due to pathing issues). Thus, those nice trains straight through from King's Lynn to Brighton (or wherever) may only run off-peak.

In some respects, why not? Would it be a major commuter route, compared to the benefits for leisure travellers?

 

[shinkansen1966]

6tph to/from Cambridge? There's only four I thought? Two Cambridge Express (one splitting to/from Kings Lynn), one semi-fast and one taking all the stops on the Hitchin-Cambridge branch as well as a few south of there? The other Cambridge services (two off peak, up to four in the peaks) are on the West Anglia.

I do agree on the "keep it simple" idea though. Changing from the GN to Thameslink is now pretty damn easy, and will be better once all the building work is finished. Whilst it would be nice to be able to travel to the south coast without changing from up here, it's hardly essential.

You're right: there are just those 4 trains per hour to Cambridge. Just as you describe. Serves me right for typing so late at night !!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
"Changing from the GN to Thameslink is now pretty damn easy"

and it will be a more pleasant experience in 2012-2013. By this time, the Kings Cross station refurbishment will be finished. That ghastly dark green temporary awning in front of KX will be removed. And on the western side, by platforms 9-11, facing St Pancras by platforms will be the KX new ticket hall/retail area.

 

[jon0844]

Platforms 9-11 (to be 10-12) are very close indeed to the TL platforms. You need to cross a road (over or underground) then walk through The Circle and down the escalators. When there aren't loads of tourists with bags in the way, the change is as quick as 3 minutes.

That's spoken as someone who used to do this regularly, coming in to King's Cross then changing to get to Farringdon by TL (as against the long walk to get the H&C/Circle/Met lines, which is now a nicer walk but still much further).

 

[shinkansen1966]

What do you think of the refurbishment plans at Kings Cross and in particular, the new booking hall on the west side?

Getting rid of the dark green low extension in front of KX will be a great. You'll see the full majesty of the front of the station with a public space.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Interesting map to show 2015 Thameslink programme services south of the river.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RZ_ujIXCINU/R_FgXeYLriI/AAAAAAAAAZw/dM83NNzfWj8/s1600-h/thameslink2015.png

 

[mackenzie_blu]

It's all stuff to go wrong. FCC struggled recently to run a service on the sections of TL that had track, overhead lines and signals.

Ive heard the GN link is getting dropped as part of the cut backs. Thes services are (if I remember correctly)

*4tph all stations Peterborough - Core
*4tph Cambridge - Core
*2tph all stations Letchworth - Core

All GN services as now with the same fleet as now.

They should keep to the core route that they have today, albeit with more frequent services, and all southeastern and Sutton loop line services terminating at Blackfriars (inconvenient for some, but with a high frequency core service, you won't have to wait long for an onward train).

Maybe run between 6 and 8tph from each of Bedford / Luton / St.Albans through to terminate at either East Croydon (via the South Croydon turnback), Three Bridges or Brighton. Forget about all those other destinations, which all already have good connections along the route. Keep to a simple core route and the line will function, but have trains filtering in from all kinds of places and chaos will inevitably ensue.

Only with that kind of simplicity will the core section be able to handle the train numbers required.

p.s. on a slightly different note, they should reinstate the centre platform at New Cross Gate too, so that Thameslink passengers can change directly onto the East London line, which would cut back on London Bridge congestion for Docklands passengers

Services to New Cross Gate are in the plans for 2015 with maybe 4tph. Althought customers are likely to go London Bridge if they live futher out and Overground will help reduce pressure on London Bridge futher.

Under current plans only Bedford sees more frequent services going from todays 4tph to 8tph. St Albans/Luton services sees 4tph as is now.

And as for all Southeastern services terminating at Blackfriars, this simply isn't true. Sevenoaks and Orpington service for example are going to be the only services calling at Kentish Town under plans post 2015. Although post 2015 these routes are looking increasely likely that they will form part of the new Greater Thameslink Franchise (GTF)

Interesting map to show 2015 Thameslink programme services south of the river.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RZ_ujIXCINU/R_FgXeYLriI/AAAAAAAAAZw/dM83NNzfWj8/s1600-h/thameslink2015.png

That maps being ripped up as we speak and less services added.