Knock-on effect of electrification scheme cancellations on **Rolling Stock**

[SpacePhoenix]

With the following electrification schemes having been announced as cancelled:

• Cardiff to Swansea
• Kettering/Nottingham to Sheffield
• Windermere to Oxenholme

(any others announced today missing from that list?)

What will be the knock-on affects of the cancellations on rolling stock? Is it going to force TOCs and/or leasing companies to pay out to get more stock updated to meet the 2020 accessibility regs?

 

[D365]

Well the MML cancellation really isn't a surprise... and in no way was it going to be ready by 2020.

How was a muck-up of this scale and grandiose ever achieved...

 

[Muzer]

Well the MML cancellation really isn't a surprise... and in no way was it going to be ready by 2020.

How was a muck-up of this scale and grandiose ever achieved...

But the question wasn't whether or not it was a surprise. We have plenty of other threads for our general moaning about how **** Chris Grayling is. This thread is about what effect it will have on rolling stock plans.

IMHO the answer is "not much". Perhaps ATW would have preferred to have used bi-modes for local routes west of Cardiff, and that now obviously looks rather unfeasible. But besides this, I can't think of an effect there. MML it seems will be getting new stock in any case (presumably to replace at least the HSTs; my personal preference would be to replace the Meridians too and cascade those to XC to give much-needed strengthening of those routes); the only difference is there will now be no electric-only stock. And Oxenholme-Windermere, that's what, one unit being a DMU rather than an EMU? The through services might be a little more complex here, but I don't know if there were originally plans to have all-electric through services that have now been scuppered or if that was never the idea.

 

[MatthewRead]

Well the MML cancellation really isn't a surprise... and in no way was it going to be ready by 2020.

How was a muck-up of this scale and grandiose ever achieved...

I thought that it was just Cardiff to Swansea and the Thames Valley branches that had been cancelled and the MML electrification was just deffered. It's such a shame I really want my favorite EMU's to find new homes:cry:

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Cardiff-Swansea doesn't change anything, the IEPs just carry on on diesel as they will next year.
MML will get new bi-modes in 2022, says the announcement, so that puts paid to 222s/HSTs and any notion of 91+Mk4 transfer.

Oxenholme-Windermere it seems is becoming a trial route for a magic propulsion system, otherwise it gets 319/769 as planned.
I do thing the 195 fleet will be overextended if they go on the Airport-Windermere route.
It would mean dedicating 5-6 class 195s on a service that needs just one unit on the line, the rest being under wires.
Ideally Northern needs some new bi-modes if the 769s are deemed too "common" (no aircon, power sockets etc).
CAF do offer a bi-mode version of their Civity model, but I don't think it has any orders yet.

 

[Chester1]

Cardiff to Swansea - no change to GWR stock, makes the impending ATW capacity crunch worse although probably counter balanced by the 319 flex announcement.

Kettering/Nottingham to Sheffield - any new trains to replace HSTs and or provide extra capacity will need to be bi mode (apart from Corby EMUs). Meridians will stay.

Oxenholme to Windermere - the announcement suggests the line will be a trial for either battery or hydrogen trains.

 

[CosherB]

Another thread ...... I'm sure there are sufficient existing threads to discuss the minutiae of each cancellation and the associated repercussions, rather than lumping them altogether in some huge Brexit-scale conflab.

 

[Mordac]

Cardiff-Swansea doesn't change anything, the IEPs just carry on on diesel as they will next year.
MML will get new bi-modes in 2022, says the announcement, so that puts paid to 222s/HSTs and any notion of 91+Mk4 transfer.

Oxenholme-Windermere it seems is becoming a trial route for a magic propulsion system, otherwise it gets 319/769 as planned.
I do thing the 195 fleet will be overextended if they go on the Airport-Windermere route.
It would mean dedicating 5-6 class 195s on a service that needs just one unit on the line, the rest being under wires.
Ideally Northern needs some new bi-modes if the 769s are deemed too "common" (no aircon, power sockets etc).
CAF do offer a bi-mode version of their Civity model, but I don't think it has any orders yet.

I'd put money on a battery-fitted 331 especially as CAF will be fitting batteries to Midland Metro trams so has more know-how for this sort of thing than the average manufacturer. Just get an extension lead at the Windermere end and plug it into a socket in the station building to charge it up. :TONGUE:

Seriously, though, since the new trains are only specced for the thorough services to Manchester Airport, charging time probably won't be an issue.

 

[a_c_skinner]

I'd put money on a battery-fitted 331 especially as CAF will be fitting batteries to Midland Metro trams so has more know-how for this sort of thing than the average manufacturer. Just get an extension lead at the Windermere end and plug it into a socket in the station building to charge it up. :TONGUE:

Seriously, though, since the new trains are only specced for the thorough services to Manchester Airport, charging time probably won't be an issue.

They will need a decent battery. Cold in winter (or will they have storage heaters?), decent mileage to Windermere and back and the last bit is a really steep hill going back to the wires.

AS

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Could we now see the leasing companies investigate the feasibility of converting more existing classes to bi-mode?

 

[Bletchleyite]

They will need a decent battery. Cold in winter (or will they have storage heaters?), decent mileage to Windermere and back and the last bit is a really steep hill going back to the wires.

The idea of storage radiators did occur to me. While they do have limitations that make them a bit rubbish in a domestic setting, it's entirely possible to keep a house warm in winter for at least 18 hours of them not being powered.

Notably, Swiss cable-hauled funiculars tend to be heated only at the stations at each end, lights etc are battery-powered. While it wouldn't allow for aircon[1], it doesn't seem totally infeasible that you could just heat up some bricks while on the 25kV then circulate that using blown air or water.

Amusingly, the electric buses on the route 7 trial in MK have diesel heaters!

[1] It might be feasible to have an evaporative comfort cooling system based on cooling bricks or freezing water while on the 25kV, though.

 

[ABB125]

Could the meridians on the MML be fitted with a new electric pantograph car, which would then distribute electricity to the motors, as was proposed for voyagers a few years ago? That way, there would be a powerful bi-mode train that could still keep to the existing diesel timings, but use OHLE between Bedford and Kettering (and possibly taking power at St Pancras so the engines can switch off to reduce emissions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could the meridians on the MML be fitted with a new electric pantograph car, which would then distribute electricity to the motors, as was proposed for voyagers a few years ago? That way, there would be a powerful bi-mode train that could still keep to the existing diesel timings, but use OHLE between Bedford and Kettering (and possibly taking power at St Pancras so the engines can switch off to reduce emissions.

I'd imagine it could, but they aren't particularly well-designed trains in most aspects (in particular they are very wasteful of space), are very heavy and therefore poorly fuel efficient, not great for emissions and are actually getting on a bit being nearly 20 years old. I'd expect to see them go for early scrap, to be honest, replaced by 80x or if they are successful then bi-mode Stadler units of some kind (I think the FLIRT is only a 100mph design, but I'm sure you could put a couple of mini locomotives into the new high speed platform used for the Gotthard units).

 

[YorkshireBear]

I'd imagine it could, but they aren't particularly well-designed trains in most aspects (in particular they are very wasteful of space), are very heavy and therefore poorly fuel efficient, not great for emissions and are actually getting on a bit being nearly 20 years old. I'd expect to see them go for early scrap, to be honest, replaced by 80x or if they are successful then bi-mode Stadler units of some kind (I think the FLIRT is only a 100mph design, but I'm sure you could put a couple of mini locomotives into the new high speed platform used for the Gotthard units).

Are we seeing how many train designs you can criticise in a day at the moment?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are we seeing how many train designs you can criticise in a day at the moment?

Two (give or take the Bombardier build quality issue) out of *how* many?

OK, I'm a massive fan of the Stadler FLIRT, and the Class 350 and 444 are good Siemens products. And I recall I was quite complimentary about the Class 158 and the Turbostar other than the latter's build quality?

 

[Chester1]

I'd imagine it could, but they aren't particularly well-designed trains in most aspects (in particular they are very wasteful of space), are very heavy and therefore poorly fuel efficient, not great for emissions and are actually getting on a bit being nearly 20 years old. I'd expect to see them go for early scrap, to be honest, replaced by 80x or if they are successful then bi-mode Stadler units of some kind (I think the FLIRT is only a 100mph design, but I'm sure you could put a couple of mini locomotives into the new high speed platform used for the Gotthard units).

Why would they be scrapped? CrossCountry and Chiltern will need more stock by the early 2020s and they are very suitable for their services. Other opperators might be interested too. Its highly unlikely that any Meridian (or Voyager) will be scrapped earlier than neccessary now that most mainline electrification projects have been cancelled.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why would they be scrapped? CrossCountry and Chiltern will need more stock by the early 2020s and they are very suitable for their services. Other opperators might be interested too. Its highly unlikely that any Meridian (or Voyager) will be scrapped earlier than neccessary now that most mainline electrification projects have been cancelled.

They are very poorly suited to XC, where bi-modes would be preferable because of the large amount of running under the wires. They also, as I say, waste a lot of space compared with Turbostars (and for that matter Mk3s), so would be poorly suited to Chiltern's requirement for high capacity too. XC would be best with a new fleet of 7 (or even 8)-car 80x, or equivalent bi-mode FLIRTs, while Chiltern should just order more Bombardier kit to keep things standard.

They were the first modern IC DMU so there were always going to be lessons, but I don't think they really have much of a future, particularly given that new rolling stock is presently available at good prices such that it can be economic to buy new to replace stock that ordinarily wouldn't be considered life expired, such as on Abellio Greater Anglia, SWT and for that matter Eurostar.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

In addition to all the 220s-222s being kept i wouldn't be surprised to see a few more HSTs "Chilternised". ATW is in the most need of new diesel stock, who's the 2nd and 3rd in most need of new diesel stock?

 

[Mikey C]

They are very poorly suited to XC, where bi-modes would be preferable because of the large amount of running under the wires. They also, as I say, waste a lot of space compared with Turbostars (and for that matter Mk3s), so would be poorly suited to Chiltern's requirement for high capacity too. XC would be best with a new fleet of 7 (or even 8)-car 80x, or equivalent bi-mode FLIRTs, while Chiltern should just order more Bombardier kit to keep things standard.

They were the first modern IC DMU so there were always going to be lessons, but I don't think they really have much of a future, particularly given that new rolling stock is presently available at good prices such that it can be economic to buy new to replace stock that ordinarily wouldn't be considered life expired, such as on Abellio Greater Anglia, SWT and for that matter Eurostar.

As Bombardier aren't producing DMUs now, Chiltern would have to go elsewhere anyway, and there are no spare Turbostars going anywhere.

 

[Wolfie]

Two (give or take the Bombardier build quality issue) out of *how* many?

OK, I'm a massive fan of the Stadler FLIRT, and the Class 350 and 444 are good Siemens products. And I recall I was quite complimentary about the Class 158 and the Turbostar other than the latter's build quality?

l am far from a fan of the FLIRT. Ugly as heck and the European mainland evidence rather suggests flimsy as a wet tissue...

 

[43096]

l am far from a fan of the FLIRT. Ugly as heck and the European mainland evidence rather suggests flimsy as a wet tissue...

Are you suggesting they do not meet crashworthiness regulations? That's one heck of an accusation if you are.

 

[Kettledrum]

My thoughts are as follows:

- existing MML stock to go to cross country, although quite a lot of the HSTs may well go for scrap

- The Anglia MK4 loco haul coaches now definitely won't go to the Midland Main line, so coaches could go to Chiltern, and the Anglia electric locos will be homeless.

- New bi- modes for the St Pancras - Kettering, Market Harborough, Leicester and beyond service. I expect these will be ordered from Hitachi.

- New all electric units will be ordered specifically for the St Pancras to Corby service, stopping at Luton AP, Luton, Bedford, Wellingboro and Kettering. Ideally these would be ordered from Hitachi so they had some compatability or inter-operability with the bi-mode units above. If a bi-mode and electric unit could operate together, then the bi-mode unit could continue beyond Corby to serve Oakham and Melton, but perhaps that's being very radical.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Could the meridians on the MML be fitted with a new electric pantograph car, which would then distribute electricity to the motors, as was proposed for voyagers a few years ago? That way, there would be a powerful bi-mode train that could still keep to the existing diesel timings, but use OHLE between Bedford and Kettering (and possibly taking power at St Pancras so the engines can switch off to reduce emissions.

I wouldn't know if they could keep their old timings with the added trailers, which would not only require a pantograph, but also a heavy transformer. They won't be as nimble as they are now.

 

[bramling]

My thoughts are as follows:

- existing MML stock to go to cross country, although quite a lot of the HSTs may well go for scrap

- The Anglia MK4 loco haul coaches now definitely won't go to the Midland Main line, so coaches could go to Chiltern, and the Anglia electric locos will be homeless.

- New bi- modes for the St Pancras - Kettering, Market Harborough, Leicester and beyond service. I expect these will be ordered from Hitachi.

- New all electric units will be ordered specifically for the St Pancras to Corby service, stopping at Luton AP, Luton, Bedford, Wellingboro and Kettering. Ideally these would be ordered from Hitachi so they had some compatability or inter-operability with the bi-mode units above. If a bi-mode and electric unit could operate together, then the bi-mode unit could continue beyond Corby to serve Oakham and Melton, but perhaps that's being very radical.

Surely the Corby units will end up being some kind of Electrostar/Aventra/Desiro build or cascade?

 

[bnsf734]

My punt for the Corby units would be the Class 379 from the Stansted Express. They should be available around then unless somebody else takes them, and would be suitable for such a service.

However the new franchise holder for East Midlands will have a big problem when they take over in August 2019 with the HST's currently having to be withdrawn by the 2020 DDA deadline. Given the 2-3 year timeline for the ordering and introduction of new stock, that is going to leave a big hole in the fleet to be filled..... Also if there is any cascade planned for the Meridians, again that cannot take place until new stock is running.

 

[The Ham]

An 8 coach 22x with 64 seats (22x's have between 60 and 66 seats) in each of the central coaches (6) and 24 first class seats in each end customer would give a total of 432 seats (or 468 if all standard class).

Now I don't know how many seats the Chiltern loco hauled trains have, but to get to the same number (432) that is 72 seats in each of all of the 6 mark 3 coaches.

As such it is entirely possible to match or exceed the number of seats on the loco hauled trains by using the same length 22x.

 

[Kettledrum]

In addition to all the 220s-222s being kept i wouldn't be surprised to see a few more HSTs "Chilternised". ATW is in the most need of new diesel stock, who's the 2nd and 3rd in most need of new diesel stock?

I'm surprised you haven't flagged up XC as the most in need of new diesel stock. XC overcrowding is notorious.

 

[jopsuk]

I'm guessing that a Resurrection of Project Thor isn't on the cards for the MML fleet?

 

[Kettledrum]

Surely the Corby units will end up being some kind of Electrostar/Aventra/Desiro build or cascade?

In that case, would EMT would have a micro fleet, just for the Corby trains, that was not compatible with the rest of the MML fleet. The consequences of this are a lack of flexibility, increased maintenance challenges and driver training etc.

There would also be no inter-operability with the rest of the MML fleet, no chance that a Corby train would be split and carry on to Oakham and Melton that are not electrified.

(I assume that you could attach a 2x5 Hitachi bi-mode to a new 2x5 Hitachi electric unit and run them together if needed to give more flexibility on the Corby route).

 

[43096]

An 8 coach 22x with 64 seats (22x's have between 60 and 66 seats) in each of the central coaches (6) and 24 first class seats in each end customer would give a total of 432 seats (or 468 if all standard class).

Now I don't know how many seats the Chiltern loco hauled trains have, but to get to the same number (432) that is 72 seats in each of all of the 6 mark 3 coaches.

As such it is entirely possible to match or exceed the number of seats on the loco hauled trains by using the same length 22x.

Errrrrrr. Wrong way round. The EMT HST I am currently sat on has 469 seats (112 first and 357 standard) in 8 cars. If you make it all standard class that goes up to around 530 seats. Any 22x has less seats than a Mark 3 - the 22x design (especially 220 and 221) is incredibly poor in its use of space.