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Labour Spending Review

mrmartin

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Phoenix AZ is not comparable to the City of London.

And as noted higher up, AZ has had to cancel various autonomous vehicle schemes precisely because they don't work, so it's not even a good example.

Like I say, it'll probably happen at some point, but the idea that they're going to be a dominant force any time soon I believe to be naive.
Waymo marketshare in SF is higher than Lyft and it will soon surpass Uber. It's also more expensive than both (despite being theoretically cheaper to operate). People are willing to pay more for autonomous vehicles - don't randomly cancel when they decide they don't actually want the fare and/or drive awfully.

Waymo is aggressively rolling out new cities, including Tokyo this year (which is also left hand drive). I suspect next year we'll start seeing Waymo trials in the UK, and then maybe 2027 full service launch in a few big cities. By 2030 they could be the majority of taxi rides.

I think it's important to realise just how far ahead Waymo is of everyone else.
 
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RailUK Forums

DynamicSpirit

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Happy for you to read up on this and confirm if I've miss understood anything:


Thanks. I did some digging into the report. It does suggest in its headlines that they want a bus to every village, but the detail qualifies this by saying, only every community with more than a couple of hundred inhabitants. To their credit, the modelling actually takes a couple of sample areas and tries to work out actual bus routes (It's in a spreadsheet linked to from here). I had a look at their proposals for the area round Barnstaple. As an example, SW of Barnstaple they suggest a bus route along the B3232 to Great Torrington, and another roughly following the A39 to Bideford, with nothing in between: So just within that area, no buses to Horwood, Ashridge, Lovacott, Woodtown, Gammaton Moor, Huntshaw or Huntshaw Water (I'm guessing none of them individually meet the population criteria). So what they are proposing does look sensible to me, but is nothing like, every single village.

In terms of cost, they estimate £2.7 Bn a year to provide that across the country. I couldn't see any claim about that being equal to road building cost, but I didn't read everything so could've missed something.
 

FMerrymon

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Capacity does count. But taking people where they don’t want to end up counts against. In some cases, that doesn’t matter. In others it will matter a lot.

The main flows will be towards urban centres earlier in the day and away later, which we'd see replicated by the main public transport flows. It's getting into the centre that's the problem that autonomous vehicles will not solve, potentially make it worse.

The trick to solving congestion into centres is to make public transport more convenient: increase frequencies, dedicated routes to avoid traffic, allowing faster journey times and cheaper operation. The alternative is a more decentralised urban area taking people away from the traditional centres (and for example into big brands in out of town retail), leading to urban sprawl and a gradually dying high street or knock down bits of the centre to increase road capacity.

The downsides to personal vehicles aren't immediately obvious, but they do have a rather a lot of impact.
 

slowroad

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The main flows will be towards urban centres earlier in the day and away later, which we'd see replicated by the main public transport flows. It's getting into the centre that's the problem that autonomous vehicles will not solve, potentially make it worse.

The trick to solving congestion into centres is to make public transport more convenient: increase frequencies, dedicated routes to avoid traffic, allowing faster journey times and cheaper operation. The alternative is a more decentralised urban area taking people away from the traditional centres (and for example into big brands in out of town retail), leading to urban sprawl and a gradually dying high street or knock down bits of the centre to increase road capacity.

The downsides to personal vehicles aren't immediately obvious, but they do have a rather a lot of impact.
The large majority of jobs are outside city centres. Even in urban areas, city centres typically account for around one-fifth of jobs.
 

The exile

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The large majority of jobs are outside city centres. Even in urban areas, city centres typically account for around one-fifth of jobs.
For this discussion, for “city centre” read “area of maximum traffic congestion” - it doesn’t really matter where it is. Congestion tends to occur at peak times around nodes, of which the biggest in most settlements is usually the centre - but it doesn’t have to be.
 

stevieinselby

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C'mon Tavistock should be next, less than 5 miles from Bere Alston but would make such a difference to the town having a railway again.
Tavistock is a massively more challenging proposition than Wellington or Cullompton – the main reason being that there's no railway there!
But it isn't as straightforward as just building a single track from Bere Alston and then building a single platform station in Tavistock.
At the moment, the line operates as a single line that only has one train in service, which allows a 2-hourly service to Gunnislake. That is inadequate for reinstating services to Tavistock, which would need an hourly service to be worthwhile.
I don't know if Ernesettle sidings are in use and could be used as a passing loop or if it would need additional work to bring that into use. Even then, I'm not sure it would be enough to allow the current Gunnislake service to operate alongside a new hourly Tavistock service, so you might need to build an additional platform at Bere Alston to allow a shuttle service to run from Gunnislake (possibly the most meritorious use of VLR).
And then, the line between St Budeaux and Bere Alston has a maximum speed of 30mph for anything other than class 150/153, which suggests additional work will be needed to allow modern units to run at a suitable speed (which may be less of an issue if the line is only serving the current set of villages).
The USA experience is of large scale implementation, albeit limited to defined areas. Maybe UK cities are different for some reason.
Cities in the USA tend to have wide, straight roads with right-angle turns and lots of traffic lights.
Cities in Europe are much more likely to have narrow, twisty roads with funny angles and roundabouts or ambiguous priority or shared streets, and a lot more pedestrians and cyclists.
 

slowroad

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The large majority of jobs are outside city centres. Even in urban areas, city centres typically account for around o

For this discussion, for “city centre” read “area of maximum traffic congestion” - it doesn’t really matter where it is. Congestion tends to occur at peak times around nodes, of which the biggest in most settlements is usually the centre - but it doesn’t have to be.
But it is only in city centres that public transport offers a viable alternative for commuters due to concentration of destinations.
 

Brubulus

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Autonomous cars don't solve congestion.
This is going to become a massive issue long term - once people can access relatively cheap autonomous taxis, the incentives to use buses disappear. Why spend £3 on a bus ticket when you can get an autonomous taxi that takes you from door to door for £5. There will likely need to be some sort of duty on them to ensure that crippling congestion isn't caused by their rollout, especially in major cities.

Tavistock is a massively more challenging proposition than Wellington or Cullompton – the main reason being that there's no railway there!
But it isn't as straightforward as just building a single track from Bere Alston and then building a single platform station in Tavistock.
At the moment, the line operates as a single line that only has one train in service, which allows a 2-hourly service to Gunnislake. That is inadequate for reinstating services to Tavistock, which would need an hourly service to be worthwhile.
I don't know if Ernesettle sidings are in use and could be used as a passing loop or if it would need additional work to bring that into use. Even then, I'm not sure it would be enough to allow the current Gunnislake service to operate alongside a new hourly Tavistock service, so you might need to build an additional platform at Bere Alston to allow a shuttle service to run from Gunnislake (possibly the most meritorious use of VLR).
And then, the line between St Budeaux and Bere Alston has a maximum speed of 30mph for anything other than class 150/153, which suggests additional work will be needed to allow modern units to run at a suitable speed (which may be less of an issue if the line is only serving the current set of villages).
Given the nature of the line, a potentially useful wheeze would be to reopen Bere Alston to Tavistock as a "heritage railway," since the heritage sector seems to be able to reinstate track at a far far lower cost than network rail. While this is obviously due to the max speed of 25mph on heritage lines and use of volunteer/discounted labour.

Then the constructed "heritage railway" effectively does a swap so Bere Alston to Tavistock becomes a network rail route and Bere Alston to Gunnislake becomes a heritage railway.

Though if money is going towards reopenings, there are quite a few more deserving than Tavistock, including some where the track is in situ, such as the Ivanhoe line and a lot of heritage lines. I do think that treating the reopenings more like heritage railways will make them a lot more viable, even if just as a management strategy.

A passing loop would be built on the new line after Bere Alston, in the unlikely event Tavistock were to regain a rail link. Sadly as we know, there is not unlimited money for rail, especially marginal branch reopenings, despite the localised political popularity.
 

The Ham

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Could you clarify what the generally accepted figure for ‘road building’ in the UK per year actually is? Obviously we need to make sure that we don’t inadvertently include funds needed for operating, maintaining and renewing the existing network.

That will give a clear indication of how much would be taken from capital budgets and switched to ‘subsidy’ as necessary for the proposed bus system.

The annual budget for National Highways is an average of £6bn per year for RP3, a significant amount of that is for enhancements.

However, this article confirms:

Total funding allocated to National Highways in the year ahead will be £4.842bn, of which £1.455bn is for resource and £3.387bn for capital schemes.

Obviously £4.9bn is less than £6bn so presumably the average will go up, however currently capital schemes total now than £3bn.

Also, there's other road funding, (at councils) so yes £3bn is possible.

Why spend £3 on a bus ticket when you can get an autonomous taxi that takes you from door to door for £5.

Depends on how far you can travel for those amounts, as if it's not very far for £5 then people will still use the bus.

Locally £5 gets you 1 mile in a taxi, even if automated vehicles halved the cost you'd still only get 3 miles.

However, the big issue with automated cars replacing buses is that road capacity would run out very quickly.

A bus with just 8 people in takes up the road space of 2 cars but typically carries the number of people in 5 cars.

A road with 5 buses each carrying 48 people in each would need space for 150 extra cars or to increase the number of cars using the road by at least 10% (assuming a constant flow on a single lane with no delays for junctions)

10% is the difference between term time and school holidays, so by adding 10% to the traffic the easy, significantly less congestion traffic we would see at the school holidays will be what we currently see during term time. Term time traffic would be chaos.
 

Dr Hoo

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The annual budget for National Highways is an average of £6bn per year for RP3, a significant amount of that is for enhancements.

However, this article confirms:
Thanks for that. National Highways' website is a bit 'secretive'. But actually we can now see via that link that only £1.315 billion is being spent on 'enhancements' to the key network, with the rest of the 'capital' going on essential renewals, including bridges, etc. and the only new big ticket items (M3 Junction 9 and A47 at Thickhorn near Norwich) are junction improvements rather than 'new roads' or bypasses. Work on some other major junction schemes continues as part of multi-year programmes.

Meanwhile I have made several rural > rural car journeys in the past week through many towns and settlements that still lack bypasses, including Ashbourne, Matlock, Bakewell, Chesterfield (west <> east), Codnor and Hathersage, past schools, etc., etc..

There is no massive pot of money sloshing around that could be diverted to subsidise a gigantic network of all day/all week bus services year after year. (Furthermore my particular personal journeys wouldn't have been possible by such a network anyway.)
 
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BrianW

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I imagine it would be for the Leeds Existing Station Programme, so internal work at the station - footbridges, passenger flows etc

Thanks for that. National Highways' website is a bit 'secretive'. But actually we can now see via that link that only £1.315 billion is being spent on 'enhancements' to the key network, with the rest of the 'capital' going on essential renewals, including bridges, etc. and the only new big ticket items (M3 Junction 9 and A47 at Thickhorn near Norwich) are junction improvements rather than 'new roads' or bypasses. Work on some other major junction schemes continues as part of multi-year programmes.

Context?
Rachel Reeves is the MP for Leeds West and Pudsey.
There is no 'Roads Minister'- the title is Minister for Future of Roads.
 

brad465

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Context?
Rachel Reeves is the MP for Leeds West and Pudsey.
There is no 'Roads Minister'- the title is Minister for Future of Roads.
AIUI ministers are not allowed to sign off schemes that affect their own constituency, another minister has to approve it (although this isn't very full proof given party allegiances).
 

BrianW

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AIUI ministers are not allowed to sign off schemes that affect their own constituency, another minister has to approve it (although this isn't very full proof given party allegiances).
Of course ;) Nudge, nudge -a behavioural insight?
Infrastructure development is a government mission
Antipathy toward new roads is another.
I support both those missions.
The Spending Review was about the size of cake and of slices.
Hopefully Heidi Alexander will give more detail this week, as trailled, within the agreed envelope, to mix metaphors.
 

The Ham

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Thanks for that. National Highways' website is a bit 'secretive'. But actually we can now see via that link that only £1.315 billion is being spent on 'enhancements' to the key network, with the rest of the 'capital' going on essential renewals, including bridges, etc. and the only new big ticket items (M3 Junction 9 and A47 at Thickhorn near Norwich) are junction improvements rather than 'new roads' or bypasses. Work on some other major junction schemes continues as part of multi-year programmes.

Meanwhile I have made several rural > rural car journeys in the past week through many towns and settlements that still lack bypasses, including Ashbourne, Matlock, Bakewell, Chesterfield (west <> east), Codnor and Hathersage, past schools, etc., etc..

There is no massive pot of money sloshing around that could be diverted to subsidise a gigantic network of all day/all week bus services year after year. (Furthermore my particular personal journeys wouldn't have been possible by such a network anyway.)

Fair enough, however as I pointed out the average for the period is £6bn with only £4.5bn being spent in that year, which would likely mean on average the amount is likely to be higher.

Likewise, there's 38 councils which are likely to have a highway authority, they will likely have some road building budget.

Whilst your travel may not have been possible by such a bus service, that doesn't mean that others wouldn't find it useful.

Yes most of the enhancements aren't long lengths of new roads, rather improvements to junctions, however the changes at Winchester won't make a big difference to roast capacity as often there's delays on the M3 south of there, so by making that bit of the journey smoother it's likely that the M3 will see more congestion.

Yes the overall journey times may improve for those using the A34, however for those using the M3 it's likely they'll get worse.

Often the reasons for changing junctions is that's the pinch point, however small changes in traffic flows can make a big difference in the capacity of a junction.

85% is the optimum capacity for a junction to be at before delays start to intensify. Whilst anything above 95% and the delays will need quite noticeable.

As such even small reductions in traffic can have a noticeable difference to the capacity of a junction.

For example, if there's a bus route, allowing a parent not to have to drive their kids somewhere before returning, that's two movements through a junction, depending on where they're going that could be through 3 or 4 junctions with congestion.

By removing such trips that will help more than other trips, however each trip removed is one fewer which is passing through a junction.

As I've said before, even a lightly used bus with just 8 people on its likely to reduce road use by the equivalent of a net of 3 cars.

The thing is that's nothing in the rural areas, however if you get to an urban area (where a lot of those buses will end up) and you have several buses. You could have a much more useful saving.

The buses in an urban area in the peak hours (outside the peaks congestion is less of an issue) are more likely to be carrying 24 people and be more than one service (let's say 3) going through a key junction. That's 39 fewer cars, which could easily be a 4% capacity reduction at a junction.

If that means that the junction sees it's capacity gap from 89% to 85% the amount of delays to the drivers using it will be quite significant, from 94% to 90% and the reduction in delays would be even more significant.

That could easily be a saving of 10 seconds per junction, if you've got 4 such junctions you have to go though going to and from work (full time) over the course of a year that's easily 3 hours less time in traffic (even allowing for congestion not being an issue during the school holidays).

This is why, at I've said before, if you want to drive you actually want as many other people not to drive as possible as your journeys would be better.

Even if taxes had to rise, the cost per tax payer to fund £3bn would be less £7 a month. There's a fair chance that quite a few would save a reasonable amount of that in reduced fuel costs.

For a lot of rural people, the ability to get about without the need to own a car could also save them money (the average cost of car ownership is £3,600 per year, even at half that rate, £1,800 would get you quite a lot of public transport travel).
 

The exile

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AIUI ministers are not allowed to sign off schemes that affect their own constituency, another minister has to approve it (although this isn't very full proof given party allegiances).
Though it does mean that there’s a second minister whose career is on the line if there’s anything really dodgy about it. (As opposed to a minister just listening more to their own constituents than they do to others)
 

DynamicSpirit

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Fair enough, however as I pointed out the average for the period is £6bn with only £4.5bn being spent in that year, which would likely mean on average the amount is likely to be higher.

Likewise, there's 38 councils which are likely to have a highway authority, they will likely have some road building budget.

Yet off the top of my head I've not heard much about councils building new roads etc. While I agree with you that work to improve capacity at junctions often just causes more congestion down the road, I do wonder how much investment in modifying junctions is actually aimed in part at making those junctions safer for cyclists/pedestrians, and whether that work would end up not happening if you just diverted the funds to subsidise buses instead. Certainly, where I live in London, I've seen lots of changes to local roads that must be costing someone (TfL) a lot of money under a highway maintenance budget, but many of those changes have been things like narrowing roads to create parallel cycleways. But maybe London isn't typical?

I'd argue a much better (and cheaper) approach would be for the Government to do much more public education to make people aware of the problems caused by driving, and asking people to use alternatives where possible. If that in itself causes a few more people to use existing buses, making more routes commercially viable/viable with a smaller subsidy, then that could drive more buses but at less cost to the treasury, as well as making for a better political environment to spend less on roads and more on buses in future years.
 

Dr Day

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A lot of new road building is associated with new house building, given the general preference for families in the UK for low density living in suburban housing estates. We could get much better value for our existing public transport network if we built at higher densities along it, and built within towns rather than continually expanding their outskirts.
 

The exile

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A lot of new road building is associated with new house building, given the general preference for families in the UK for low density living in suburban housing estates. We could get much better value for our existing public transport network if we built at higher densities along it, and built within towns rather than continually expanding their outskirts.
Though building within towns is not without its problems - squeezing out employment and services that the town relies on and adding to already congested roads (even though they live in a town, many people will still have a car.
 

Ben427

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Yet off the top of my head I've not heard much about councils building new roads etc. While I agree with you that work to improve capacity at junctions often just causes more congestion down the road, I do wonder how much investment in modifying junctions is actually aimed in part at making those junctions safer for cyclists/pedestrians, and whether that work would end up not happening if you just diverted the funds to subsidise buses instead. Certainly, where I live in London, I've seen lots of changes to local roads that must be costing someone (TfL) a lot of money under a highway maintenance budget, but many of those changes have been things like narrowing roads to create parallel cycleways. But maybe London isn't typical?

I'd argue a much better (and cheaper) approach would be for the Government to do much more public education to make people aware of the problems caused by driving, and asking people to use alternatives where possible. If that in itself causes a few more people to use existing buses, making more routes commercially viable/viable with a smaller subsidy, then that could drive more buses but at less cost to the treasury, as well as making for a better political environment to spend less on roads and more on buses in future years.
In Leeds the council have delivered the East Leeds Orbital Road - about 5 miles of dual carriageway which will also enable about 5000 new homes
 

Brubulus

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A lot of new road building is associated with new house building, given the general preference for families in the UK for low density living in suburban housing estates. We could get much better value for our existing public transport network if we built at higher densities along it, and built within towns rather than continually expanding their outskirts.
Would have been good to see planning bill focus on increasing densities in new developments. I personally believe that the discretionary planning system should be replaced by local plans, (which could be appealed by government + developers) alongside a set of national and local design codes. A key part of this would be ensuring that new housing is designed around actually prioritising public transport, more car lite developments (central off street parking site instead of at homes) and minimum density requirements that enable effective public transport.
 

Mag_seven

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Looks like the infrastructure plan has now been published - is there a thread for it?

Yes :)

 

Thirteen

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What is interesting about the £2.2bn TfL got is that the DfT expects fares to rise in return and also that the DLR Thamesmead may end getting the greenlight once the Business case and full funding plan is submitted in the Autumn. Looking at the Annex, they're getting the majority of the cash in the 2026/2027 year, perhaps enough to order the new trams and Bakerloo Line trains?

TfL Spending Review Phase 2 outcome - June 2025

I do think Sadiq Khan may have to increase bus and tram fares which he has held off for a few years but it may no longer be viable to keep them at the same pricing they've been for a few years.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I do think Sadiq Khan may have to increase bus and tram fares which he has held off for a few years but it may no longer be viable to keep them at the same pricing they've been for a few years.

I agree: The statement about fares in the letter from the DfT is pretty clear:

DfT said:
The funding in this settlement is provided against an assumed scenario that overall TfL fares will rise by the value of RPI+1 for each year of this settlement.

That's not actually quite directly telling Sadiq to raise fares by RPI+1 but it makes it pretty clear that's the DfT's expectation and they won't be happy if he doesn't.
 

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