Leaked HS2 report claims scheme ‘fundamentally flawed’ - FT

[Shaw S Hunter]

Full article

TFT. I asked earlier what Mansell's terms of reference were: HMG is denying that he was asked to look at costs. That rather begs the question: what was the point of the report in the first place? The main focus seems to be on the cost of compulsory purchase of properties on the route. I can't help wondering whether some forced vendors have managed to achieve a better price than was intended and perhaps that is the real issue of concern, not the actual costs of construction.

 

[HowardGWR]

The majority of pax on HS2 will not be commuters, nor business travellers but leisure. Only 10% will be travelling to Heathrow.

 

[The Planner]

Which points "north of Lichfield" are suggested for London commuter traffic?

As far as people are prepared to travel, Stafford, Crewe, Manchester, you name it. All of which are currently commuter territory.

 

[HSTEd]

I am increasingly skeptical.
If the report is so scathing, why didn't they leak the entire thing?

 

[Ianno87]

- and doesn't it require less trains to acheive the same capacity if each return journey takes less time?

Quite correct. Which by extension also means smaller depots and stabling facilities.

 

[paul1609]

Not even that. What demand is there from a dilapadated east-central part of Birmingham to commute to London? Euston isn't even connected directly to The City or to Canary Wharf.

It's also justified using some eye-watering fares income. Chiltern can just up their game, charge normal fares, and scoop quite a lot of the traffic off.

I've not seen the fares structure proposed for HS2 but with HS1 the high speed line has probably taken 95% plus of the peak time traffic from the Ashford Area to the capital.
Most of the classic peak time trains leave Ashford near empty and I believe that what traffic there is largely to intermediate stations or people working within a stones throw of the classic terminals. Admittedly HS1 has the additional advantage of Stratford International as a gateway for Docklands but I think that once you get annual seasons in the thousands a ticket which cuts 30 mins from the journey time for only a few thousands more seems very attractive to people whose incomes make a long distance commute feasible.

 

[Taunton]

with HS1 the high speed line has probably taken 95% plus of the peak time traffic from the Ashford Area to the capital.

Different situation. The same operator runs all services from Ashford, there is no practical competition, and they have eliminated fast services by the classic route.

Birmingham is different; the prospect of the WCML operator running challenging competitive services caused that and HS2 to be integrated into one franchise to head that off. But there is still Chiltern, who have already taken some traffic between the two cities that did not previously exist. And if the WCML Birmingham service is reduced, who knows what proposals from the current second-tier operators on the route, or from Open Access operators, might come forward to take the paths.

 

[yorksrob]

I've not seen the fares structure proposed for HS2 but with HS1 the high speed line has probably taken 95% plus of the peak time traffic from the Ashford Area to the capital.
Most of the classic peak time trains leave Ashford near empty and I believe that what traffic there is largely to intermediate stations or people working within a stones throw of the classic terminals. Admittedly HS1 has the additional advantage of Stratford International as a gateway for Docklands but I think that once you get annual seasons in the thousands a ticket which cuts 30 mins from the journey time for only a few thousands more seems very attractive to people whose incomes make a long distance commute feasible.

This has also coincided with a considerable slow down of main line services via Tonbridge. This may be partially reversed if a fast service is reinstated as part of the new franchise.

 

[Ianno87]

Different situation. The same operator runs all services from Ashford, there is no practical competition, and they have eliminated fast services by the classic route.

Birmingham is different; the prospect of the WCML operator running challenging competitive services caused that and HS2 to be integrated into one franchise to head that off. But there is still Chiltern, who have already taken some traffic between the two cities that did not previously exist. And if the WCML Birmingham service is reduced, who knows what proposals from the current second-tier operators on the route, or from Open Access operators, might come forward to take the paths.

There *is* a fares differential on HS1, however, and people still actively choose it over the classic line.

Like I say upthread, Virgin West Coast are the premium London-Birmingham operator and still manage well loaded trains in spite of Chiltern and LM competition (Chilterns timings being respectable in comparison with Virgin - LM is really a coach competitor).

HS2 (in essence the current Pendolino service, but accelerated) will easily hold its own market share against Chiltern, based on what VWC currently do.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not even that. What demand is there from a dilapadated east-central part of Birmingham to commute to London? Euston isn't even connected directly to The City or to Canary Wharf.

It's also justified using some eye-watering fares income. Chiltern can just up their game, charge normal fares, and scoop quite a lot of the traffic off.

Well, when I commuted from that part of Birmingham to London 20 years ago, there were about 70 season ticket holders from New St on my regular up train (there were 6 recognised trains for commuters). This was when the journey took 1h 40.

 

[HSTEd]

Different situation. The same operator runs all services from Ashford, there is no practical competition, and they have eliminated fast services by the classic route.

Birmingham is different; the prospect of the WCML operator running challenging competitive services caused that and HS2 to be integrated into one franchise to head that off. But there is still Chiltern, who have already taken some traffic between the two cities that did not previously exist. And if the WCML Birmingham service is reduced, who knows what proposals from the current second-tier operators on the route, or from Open Access operators, might come forward to take the paths.

How much fare income comes from an empty seat?
HS2 services will cost less than a regular service to run per seat, so unless the Government wants to burn money running a subsidy junkie slow service.... they will set fares to draw as much traffic as possible onto HS2.

Open Access Operators will get nowhere near those paths, the LM-equivalent operator will eat them up before anyone else gets a look in.

 

[paul1609]

This has also coincided with a considerable slow down of main line services via Tonbridge. This may be partially reversed if a fast service is reinstated as part of the new franchise.

Unfortunately the new "fast" peak service will only save around 9 minutes over the current stopping service by ommiting stops at Pluckley, Headcorn, Marsden and possibly Staplehurst. Peak London traffic from Headcorn to London has decreased by around a third since HS1 opened because people who used to railhead there from a large area right down to the coast now drive instead to Ashford international with its better roads, easy parking and HS1.
North of Tonbridge there is no capacity to speed up the service because the paths previously used by Ashford fast trains were taken by an increased service to Tunbridge Wells when HS1 opened.
I cant see many commuters changing back from HS1 to the classic lines because of the new fast service.

 

[absolutelymilk]

I cant see many commuters changing back from HS1 to the classic lines because of the new fast service.

No, but are the 395s getting full? With rising demand, maybe the excess will go onto the new fast service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There *is* a fares differential on HS1, however, and people still actively choose it over the classic line.

Like I say upthread, Virgin West Coast are the premium London-Birmingham operator and still manage well loaded trains in spite of Chiltern and LM competition (Chilterns timings being respectable in comparison with Virgin - LM is really a coach competitor).

I'd say LM is more of a competitor against the private car, to be honest, particularly for intermediate journeys. It also directly competes with VT from MKC, on which the time difference is less marked, and even less so for intermediate stations where a direct service may be more value than a change.

 

[hwl]

Arguably Crossrail.

Yes it's run over on budget now, but that's primarily NRs fault. If Crossrail was an entirely new-built line from Paddington to Abbey Wood, chances are it would have come in under budget.

Crossrail - Primarily a borked value engineering exercises 5-6 years ago that lead to some descoping and optimistic costing reductions. CR will still be cheaper than by several hundred £m than the cost pre value engineering even after recent annouincements.
Also the spec was changed to include surface station level access without any increase in budget after the costs of the surface station had got value engineered down so no more fat to find to pay for the lifts etc.
Construction inflation in London has been running about 10% for a long time so the cost of actually building the surface stations will be much higher than planned given the contracts placed X years later than costings.

 

[hwl]

There is a lot more info of cost overruns and problems in the FT article linked including the fact that HS2 have only bought 20% of the property required for phase 1 but have spent £1.6bn of the £2.8bn allocated budget.

But if most of that 20% property is in Urban Greater London / Greater Birmingham (rather than fields) as you would have expected given the need to start earlier on brown field sites then it may not be as crazy as it sounds.

 

[yorksrob]

Unfortunately the new "fast" peak service will only save around 9 minutes over the current stopping service by ommiting stops at Pluckley, Headcorn, Marsden and possibly Staplehurst. Peak London traffic from Headcorn to London has decreased by around a third since HS1 opened because people who used to railhead there from a large area right down to the coast now drive instead to Ashford international with its better roads, easy parking and HS1.
North of Tonbridge there is no capacity to speed up the service because the paths previously used by Ashford fast trains were taken by an increased service to Tunbridge Wells when HS1 opened.
I cant see many commuters changing back from HS1 to the classic lines because of the new fast service.

If they're going to Charing Cross at all, the cances are that it will have to be flighted behind one of the Tunbridge Wells services anyway, so why not a fast one.

A train I caught recently between Ashford and Tonbridge took 23 minutes non-stop. The quickest train I can find from Tonbridge to CX is 43 mins. If you could provide a service at 66 mins which was cheaper and not overcrowded, it might tempt some.

 

[HSTEd]

Now if the St Pancras platforms had been built to full length (400m), there would be far more 395 service paths to go around......

 

[Muzer]

Not even that. What demand is there from a dilapadated east-central part of Birmingham to commute to London? Euston isn't even connected directly to The City or to Canary Wharf.

Canary Wharf, I'll give you, but I'm guessing you've forgotten the Northern Line exists... Euston is absolutely connected to the City!

In either case, both the City and Canary Wharf will likely be directly connected to Old Oak Common via Crossrail.

 

[Warwick]

I've not seen the fares structure proposed for HS2 but with HS1 the high speed line has probably taken 95% plus of the peak time traffic from the Ashford Area to the capital.
Most of the classic peak time trains leave Ashford near empty and I believe that what traffic there is largely to intermediate stations or people working within a stones throw of the classic terminals. Admittedly HS1 has the additional advantage of Stratford International as a gateway for Docklands but I think that once you get annual seasons in the thousands a ticket which cuts 30 mins from the journey time for only a few thousands more seems very attractive to people whose incomes make a long distance commute feasible.

They leave empty because there are no fast trains from Ashford to London as there were pre HS1.

 

[quantinghome]

They leave empty because there are no fast trains from Ashford to London as there were pre HS1.

And the same will be true for Birmingham to London on the old WCML route once HS2 is built. Well, not quite. There will be significant flows from Birmingham to Coventry, Rugby, MK and Watford. But it will certainly not be as fast as at present.

Is there a 'classic' line anywhere in the world that has retained its express services after being bypassed by a high speed line?

 

[The Ham]

And the same will be true for Birmingham to London on the old WCML route once HS2 is built. Well, not quite. There will be significant flows from Birmingham to Coventry, Rugby, MK and Watford. But it will certainly not be as fast as at present.

Is there a 'classic' line anywhere in the world that has retained its express services after being bypassed by a high speed line?

I would suggest that the very fast services with the first stop at Birmingham or beyond would only exist on HS2 after the line is built, but chances are the existing services which call at places like MK would likely keep those (or similar) services.

You have to bear in mind that most places in the world the new HS lines aren't replacing lines as busy as the WCML.

 

[Ianno87]

And the same will be true for Birmingham to London on the old WCML route once HS2 is built. Well, not quite. There will be significant flows from Birmingham to Coventry, Rugby, MK and Watford. But it will certainly not be as fast as at present.

Is there a 'classic' line anywhere in the world that has retained its express services after being bypassed by a high speed line?

HSL Zuid in Belgium/Holland?

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

HSL Zuid in Belgium/Holland?

Not really. The former "BeNeLux" service no longer serves The Hague even though it's the seat of the Dutch national government.

 

[paul1609]

If they're going to Charing Cross at all, the cances are that it will have to be flighted behind one of the Tunbridge Wells services anyway, so why not a fast one.

A train I caught recently between Ashford and Tonbridge took 23 minutes non-stop. The quickest train I can find from Tonbridge to CX is 43 mins. If you could provide a service at 66 mins which was cheaper and not overcrowded, it might tempt some.

The current evening peak trains from Charing Cross to Ashford are around 79 mins. My understanding is that the proposed classic fast service will still stop at Paddock Wood as this is now regarded as a major traffic generator (being the railhead for Pembury and a large area East of Tunbridge Wells right down the A21 corridor) and possibly Staplehurst.
As the evening peak trains already skip either Pluckley or Marsden the potential time saving would appear to be around 3 mins for Pluckley/Marsden, around 5 mins for Headcorn (because of the Platform loops) and possibly an additional 3 mins for Staplehurst. That would give timings of 71 or 68 for the classic route against 34 mins for a fast (not stopping at Ebbsfleet) HS1 service.
I cant see that achieving much of a deflection of commuters tbh.

 

[yorksrob]

The current evening peak trains from Charing Cross to Ashford are around 79 mins. My understanding is that the proposed classic fast service will still stop at Paddock Wood as this is now regarded as a major traffic generator (being the railhead for Pembury and a large area East of Tunbridge Wells right down the A21 corridor) and possibly Staplehurst.
As the evening peak trains already skip either Pluckley or Marsden the potential time saving would appear to be around 3 mins for Pluckley/Marsden, around 5 mins for Headcorn (because of the Platform loops) and possibly an additional 3 mins for Staplehurst. That would give timings of 71 or 68 for the classic route against 34 mins for a fast (not stopping at Ebbsfleet) HS1 service.
I cant see that achieving much of a deflection of commuters tbh.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I can see people might find it worth a few extra thousand to save forty minutes each day, but I hear HS1 is getting quite crowded at times, so combined with greater comfort of not being crowded in might be more decisive.

With regard to Paddock Wood, it's already the next stop down from Tonbridge, so passengers aren't going to gain so much by transferring to a fast train. I'd run the new service straight through, as its key purpose will be as a relief to HS1.

 

[HSTEd]

What is actually the constraint on HS1 capacity at the present time?
Is it line capacity or platform constraints at St Pancras?

 

[Joseph_Locke]

Which points "north of Lichfield" are suggested for London commuter traffic?

Crewe has been mentioned in this context - only a little over an hour to London.

 

[HSTEd]

People commute from Grantham into London, and in travel time terms after HS2-2, Manchester will be at a comparable journey time.
Could see people commuting using the Airport station.

 

[Bletchleyite]

People commute from Grantham into London, and in travel time terms after HS2-2, Manchester will be at a comparable journey time.
Could see people commuting using the Airport station.

The price will be a significant dissuader. It's already viable to commute Manchester to London daily, though it's a bit of a long journey it's doable if you do some work on the train, but it is incredibly costly so only senior management etc would be able to afford it. HS2 won't change that.