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LNER CAF fleet: predictions, suggestions etc

YorksLad12

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What do we think these new trains will be branded as?

Will the Azuma brand be staying on long-term?
At the moment even station announcements use “LNER Azuma” for instance, but not “LNER InterCity 225”
If they're mostly all going to replace the 225s, and the 225s run to Doncaster, Wakefield and Leeds... LNER White Rose service?

The December 2022 plan was...

Ex Kings Cross
xx03 Edinburgh
xx10 Leeds
xx30 Edinburgh (Fast)
xx33 Newcastle
xx40 Leeds (even hours to Harrogate)
xx47 Lincoln (even hours)
xx47 York (odd hours)
With a few changes at peak times.

Nothing to Leeds via Hambleton, all via Wakefield.
My bad. Was thinking of this, from 2019: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/future-ecml-lner-services.177199/#post-3846605
 
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Bornin1980s

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Don’t know if this is best suited for a separate thread. But anyone have any guesses if the 91s or Mk4s will have a future beyond razor blades once these are around?
They are coming to the end. Not all trains make 40 years.
 

Pete_uk

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I'm taking a uneducated guess that there will be five engine carriages and three battery carriages with nothing under the leading carriages
 

Nottingham59

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I'm taking a uneducated guess that there will be five engine carriages and three battery carriages with nothing under the leading carriages
LNER won't need sustained high speed running off the wires, so they won't need five engines like, say, a Class 800 (=3.5MW). I'd expect these trains to have around 6MW on AC, 4MW of battery and no more than 1MW of diesel power. So two engine cars, perhaps.
 

Pdf

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It's unlikely CAF took this order with the intention of just building ten trains. Who else do you think they'll try sell these to?
 

Kite159

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It's unlikely CAF took this order with the intention of just building ten trains. Who else do you think they'll try sell these to?
Maybe an eye on a potential order from XC as they try and become more green and run bimodal trains using the overhead wires rather than diesel all the way.

But new stock for XC... Oh look a flying pig lol :lol:

----

As for the new units for LNER, I predict they will mainly be used on Leeds & York services, near enough on a like for like replacement with the 91s. There might be the odd booked working to Harrogate, maybe even the token Hull train. The bimodal capability coming in useful on those weekends where the route via Wakefield is closed (like this coming Sunday) or the main ECML is closed in part forcing a detour via Lincoln/Ely. More bimodes means more trains can theorial run, paths dependent.
 

Pdf

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It could also be an option for the potential open access operations currently speculated to be buying 80xs. Along the same lines it could be a way for Lumo to increase their fleet if they can get permission to run more/longer services.
 

TT-ONR-NRN

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As for the new units for LNER, I predict they will mainly be used on Leeds & York services, near enough on a like for like replacement with the 91s. There might be the odd booked working to Harrogate, maybe even the token Hull train. The bimodal capability coming in useful on those weekends where the route via Wakefield is closed (like this coming Sunday) or the main ECML is closed in part forcing a detour via Lincoln/Ely. More bimodes means more trains can theorial run, paths dependent.
They only usually have about 3/4 225s out a day though, and 4/10 of the new stock would be very poor utilisation indeed. I’d assume they’d taken on almost all Harrogates, not that it’s required for such a lightly used extension but it avoids the need for splitting and attaching Azumas.
 

CAF397

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It's no secret that TPE are in the early stages of looking at a Transpennine Route Upgrade fleet, which will have to be bi-Mode.

A homogenous fleet would offer stability to TPE operations, which is what's been lacking since the new Nova fleets were introduced.

Wouldn't it be interesting if part of this order replaced the 12 5-coach 397s which then got passed onto LNER, who could operate them as 10-car all electric trains as part of the CAF fleet. Suddenly two micro fleets have become one relatively modest fleet!
 

Class 800

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It could also be an option for the potential open access operations currently speculated to be buying 80xs. Along the same lines it could be a way for Lumo to increase their fleet if they can get permission to run more/longer services.
I mean Lumo is very popular and one thing they could do fairly quickly is get their current 803s lengthened to 9 coaches.
If there is a lot of demand, the first port of call especially on busy lines should be lengthening services before asking for more paths.

But that is a topic for another thread.

It's no secret that TPE are in the early stages of looking at a Transpennine Route Upgrade fleet, which will have to be bi-Mode.

A homogenous fleet would offer stability to TPE operations, which is what's been lacking since the new Nova fleets were introduced.

Wouldn't it be interesting if part of this order replaced the 12 5-coach 397s which then got passed onto LNER, who could operate them as 10-car all electric trains as part of the CAF fleet. Suddenly two micro fleets have become one relatively modest fleet!
Well, again is there an assumption here that they won't go for more 802s or attempt to have their existing ones lengthened?


Maybe an eye on a potential order from XC as they try and become more green and run bimodal trains using the overhead wires rather than diesel all the way.

But new stock for XC... Oh look a flying pig lol :lol:

Well, if it means XC will order longer trains! Grand Central should also move to bi-modes ASAP but I think they will struggle with that for now given their finances.
But if we do that, alongside current efforts by Avanti / EMR, it will all but eliminate InterCity trains running on diesel under wires.
 

skyhigh

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I mean Lumo is very popular and one thing they could do fairly quickly is get their current 803s lengthened to 9 coaches.
It's been mentioned elsewhere by Tony Miles that Lumo asked Hitachi but the price per vehicle to lengthen their sets was incredibly high and killed off any possibility of progressing the idea.
 

Class 800

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It's been mentioned elsewhere by Tony Miles that Lumo asked Hitachi but the price per vehicle to lengthen their sets was incredibly high and killed off any possibility of progressing the idea.
From my very inexperienced perspective it looks like a poor move from Hitachi to up their asking price by so much.
A homogeneous fleet would probably have been a big incentive for TOCs and if Hitachi had kept their price the same they may well have gotten a lot more orders which would have added up.
Now they've potentially lost out.

I'll be honest my biggest fear with the CAF fleet is the potential lack of 140mph capability, if the 397s are anything to go by.
 

Bletchleyite

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It's been mentioned elsewhere by Tony Miles that Lumo asked Hitachi but the price per vehicle to lengthen their sets was incredibly high and killed off any possibility of progressing the idea.

I wonder if there'd be mileage (!) in seeing if another 80x operating TOC might like them, e.g. GWR, and sticking in a follow on for some of those ten car CAFs, but as straight EMUs?
 

Rhydgaled

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Presumably they will be ETCS compliant for the ECML (a first for CAF in the UK).
What do you mean by "a first for CAF in the UK"? The class 197s are supposedly ETCS-ready given KeolisAmey's plan to introduce them on the Cambrian lines, where ETCS is required in normal service.

My prediction is that the units will be completed, sent out on test, the battery technology will be found out to not be working, the units will sit in sidings for 5 years whilst the worlds greatest scientists try to figure it out before the DfT tell them to forget the battery bit and just run them as bi-modes
Given that the IC225s are expected to be withdrawn as a result of these new LNER CAF units, and the IC225s are straight electric, if the new fleet is fine apart from the batteries presumably they will just be used as EMUs on the IC225 diagrams with the batteries being wasteful deadweight.

One assumes they'll be done to look the same as 80x inside. But hopefully the TfW cushion rather than the original!
Does the TfW cushion on the Sophias soften after a while in service (as I'm told the FLIRT cushions do) since both times I have sampled the new TfW units (one a 231 and one 197, though only short trips in both cases) the cushions felt like they might be made of concrete? Unless it very quickly softens to something far more comfortable, I would hope for something considerably better than either the TfW Sophia or the version found on the 80x fleets.

I think LNER would like to be able to return Leeds services back to London without reversing. So via the un-electrified route (West beyond past Neville Hill) through South Milford to the East Coast Mainline. But when is that getting electrified anyway ?.
I'm wondering how the units will be configured. 3 first class and 7 standard cars would seem a good balance, or will they go down the route of split cars. An overall capacity of 650 passengers?
If these are fixed-formation 10-car units with first class, won't they want to keep first class at the London end whenever possible (so running to Leeds and back without reversal would be undesirable)? I think 3 first and 7 standard class coaches would make sense, provided that the kitchen/buffet is located in the nearest 1st class coach to standard (so more like 2.5 coaches of first class seating and 7 of standard, or 2 and 6.5 if you take off another half a coach to account for a cab, wheelchair spaces and PRM-toilet in each driving vehicle).

I certainly think LNER are a bit brave going for microfleet when TPE appear to be dropping one microfleet (Mk5s). Says something about Hitachi.
Given that price is probably a large part of bid evaluation (if not the only part), it probably doesn't say much other than CAF are cheap compared to Hitachi. That and/or TPE dropping the mark 5s has far more to do with either DfT cost-cutting (I wonder how close they came to dropping the IC225s without replacement) or a dislike of locomotives (either at the DfT or by lineside residents).

Don’t know if this is best suited for a separate thread. But anyone have any guesses if the 91s or Mk4s will have a future beyond razor blades once these are around?
I hope it will be a long time before the new CAF fleet arrives and the IC225s are stood down, because sadly I think LNER will be the last TOC using them in normal service. By the time anyone else can get their drivers trained on them, the 91s at least won't be far off retirement age anyway. Maybe TfW will take a few more mark 4s, but I can't see much of a future beyond that. My hope is that the 225 Group will aquire at least one full mark 4 set (nine coaches plus DVT) and a 91 for preservation long-term. I would also suggest preserving a 2nd DVT, TSOE, TSO and buffet - both as spares and to allow a choice of formations (by refitting both buffets and one of the TSOEs with first class interiors, with just 12 preserved mark 4s you could form a 9 coach rake with a first:standard ratio of 6:3 one day (eg. for Pullman dining charters) and 3:6 the next (eg. for a crowdbusting footex/rugex)). The coaches could be hired out to other charter operators for use with other preserved locos such as 90s or the class 89, not just used with the 91.

It's no secret that TPE are in the early stages of looking at a Transpennine Route Upgrade fleet, which will have to be bi-Mode.

A homogenous fleet would offer stability to TPE operations, which is what's been lacking since the new Nova fleets were introduced.

Wouldn't it be interesting if part of this order replaced the 12 5-coach 397s which then got passed onto LNER, who could operate them as 10-car all electric trains as part of the CAF fleet. Suddenly two micro fleets have become one relatively modest fleet!
Wasn't TPE rumoured to be looking at having some 7-car Nova trains (can't remember if this was 802s or 397s, or additional units or lengthening the existing ones) to increase capacity on their WCML services a while back? Also, isn't the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) supposed to deliver a fully-electrified route between Newcastle and Liverpool via Leeds and Manchester? If so, there is not necessarily any need for the new units ordered for TRU to be bi-mode, since they could keep the class 802s for the routes where bi-mode is needed and buy more 397s (preferably at least 7-cars and with much better seats) for the wired routes, ie:
  • class 397s:
    • Manchester - Glasgow/Edinburgh via WCML
    • Liverpool - Glasgow/Edinburgh via WCML
    • Manchester/Livepool - Newcastle/Edinburgh via Huddersfield
  • class 802s:
    • Manchester/Liverpool - Saltburn via Huddersfield
    • Manchester/Liverpool - Scarborough via Huddersfield
    • Manchester/Liverpool - Hull via Huddersfield
  • class 185s (I would much rather say class 68s plus mark 5s):
    • Manchester - Sheffield - Cleethorpes
In the above I'm assuming the Manchester-Leeds stoppers would be worked using some of the suburban EMUs going off-lease elsewhere (eg. 350s or 379s), or transfered to Northern who might use 331s. Keeping the existing class 397s as 5-car sets would give TPE a mix of 5-car (existing) and longer (new) 397s which could be mixed between the WCML and TransPennine routes to match demand as closely as possible.

I wonder if there'd be mileage (!) in seeing if another 80x operating TOC might like them, e.g. GWR, and sticking in a follow on for some of those ten car CAFs, but as straight EMUs?
Britain needs quite a bit more electrification before ordering (m)any more straight EMUs - I really think wiring Basingstoke-Reading, Didcot-Oxford-Coventry, Swindon-Bath-Bristol, Cardiff-Swansea (with CDF-Bridgend 4-tracking or stations with platform loops built first) and Filton Bank should be priorities followed by new full-length IC straight EMUs for XC (with 3rd rail capability). I don't think anything (except perhaps scrapping some driving vehicles to free up intermediate coaches to lengthen other units) will get us away from the need for some additonal non-driving cars for Hitachi 80x fleets - far too many 5-car sets have been built (with yet more on-order in the form of the 810s).
 

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