London to Plymouth and Penzance after IEP

[TheWalrus]

I know we have been discussing about future Paddington - West Country services on another thread but I thought I should start another one.

Realistically what is going to happen after IEP is introduced on the GWML? I know the plan is to keep HSTs running for now but I think they will need a lot of investment to run beyond 2019 with DDA. We need to face that sooner or later the HSTs will not be able to go on forever and will inevitably need a replacement. So why not just buy new trains for 2019 instead of spending money on trains which won't go on much longer?

 

[tbtc]

I expect there to be follow on IEP orders, once the first two main batches have been ordered - I don't expect HSTs to be running in any significant number in the 2030s, despite the oft-quoted 2035 figure.

Bi-mode would then allow the electrification to be rolled out bit by bit towards Devon (and eventually Cornwall).

 

[HSTEd]

Or more likely IEP follow on orders for XC and the WoE will lead to the electrification programme grinding to a halt as governments cut it to reduce budgets to show they are 'Fiscally Responsible'.

If bi-mode catches on as it appears it will, it will have the side effect of completely eliminating the 'network effect' by removing the problems with under-wires running.

 

[TheWalrus]

Really they need to order some 8-car bi-mode sets imminently for Plymouth and Penzance for 2019 rather than further investment in HSTs, so they can use the wires as far as Newbury as wires won't reach further west until after 2019.

On another note when are the 222s from MML expected to be released? This could be a better solution until wires go further west.

 

[The Ham]

There are three options which I'm aware of being discussed on this forum:
1) Referbmishment of the HST's
2) Follow on order of IEP's
3) Using 222's following their release from the MML following electrification.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Or more likely IEP follow on orders for XC and the WoE will lead to the electrification programme grinding to a halt as governments cut it to reduce budgets to show they are 'Fiscally Responsible'.

If bi-mode catches on as it appears it will, it will have the side effect of completely eliminating the 'network effect' by removing the problems with under-wires running.

Bi-mode makes sense on express and intercity routes. It doesn't make sense for a commuter MU and there are an awful lot of them running around the SW of England. By the time the SW is wired there will be no or very few pre-privatisation DMUs with any life left and if they're not able to order them now then what's the chance they're going to order them then? The number of trains needed on the network is also only going to increase, with reopenings and service improvements across the network, so the post-privatisation units will have enough work until they are life expired as well.

If electrification stops after the current schemes then it would represent a massive drop in rail infrastructure investment which is by no means what is going to happen. The cost of diesel has nowhere to go but up and it's more efficient and economical to burn it in a power station and send it over wires than it is to burn on the train (bio-diesel isn't going to change this either).

Leaving branches unwired would also prevent electric freight from ever really taking off. Bi-mode doesn't work for freight (apart from low speed 'last mile' engines in otherwise electric locomotives). The Swiss don't seem to have done too badly with their complete electrification of their network and if we can do the same the benefits will be immense.

 

[KA4C]

On another note when are the 222s from MML expected to be released? This could be a better solution until wires go further west.

Good god, I hope not

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Good god, I hope not

Why not? They are perfectly good trains, (better than their voyager cousins).

 

[KA4C]

Why not? They are perfectly good trains, (better than their voyager cousins).

Better than Voyagers (what isn't) but not a touch on an HST and not a suitable replacement set for a PZ to Padd journey. If I'm travelling on MML I'll always try to get an HST.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Better than Voyagers (what isn't) but not a touch on an HST and not a suitable replacement set for a PZ to Padd journey. If I'm travelling on MML I'll always try to get an HST.

When I travel on the MML I can say I have not noticed a major difference between a 125 and 222 in terms on comfort, vibration etc (all is subjective though as I tend to pop the headphones in and not pay much attention to noise).

 

[HSTEd]

The MML 125s are not in particularily good condition.

 

[fgwrich]

There are three options which I'm aware of being discussed on this forum:
1) Referbmishment of the HST's
2) Follow on order of IEP's
3) Using 222's following their release from the MML following electrification.

The 222s I know have not been wanted by First Group at all, with talk / whispers (or rumors) of an all new Adelante type DMU from Alstom - And having used a few 222s I can understand why! Follow on order for IEPs could be a case, although could the reason why the IEPs are not going down to Devon and Cornwall already be down to clearance issues?

The current plan however by First Group is the retention and refurbishment of 16 HST Sets which probably will be DDA Modified and a 'more suitable interior fitted to cater for long distance travelling'.

 

[starrymarkb]

I know First and Alstom have been getting on better of later, with talk of FGW being offered a 180 bodyshell with 390 traction as a concept if IEP fell through. Given Alstom seem to have sorted most of their issues it might be a concept worth investigating further when more knitting has been errected.

I can see 222s ending up on some Westcountry runs in the mean time though

 

[jimm]

The 222s I know have not been wanted by First Group at all, with talk / whispers (or rumors) of an all new Adelante type DMU from Alstom - And having used a few 222s I can understand why! Follow on order for IEPs could be a case, although could the reason why the IEPs are not going down to Devon and Cornwall already be down to clearance issues?

The current plan however by First Group is the retention and refurbishment of 16 HST Sets which probably will be DDA Modified and a 'more suitable interior fitted to cater for long distance travelling'.

Its not a 'current plan'. It is one option which could happen. Nothing has been settled about what stock will be used after 2018 when the other GW expresses have gone over to IEP and no such work on HSTs has been authorised.

The intention is that the route all the way to Penzance and the Newquay branch will be cleared for IEP operation, along with diversionary routes, such as Castle Cary-Exeter via Yeovil and Honiton, and Reading to Waterloo.

See maps at Annex C and detailed list of lines at Annex B at https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/4888/dft-f0008119.pdf

 

[YorkshireBear]

I can not see a world where 222s will end up on Padd-Penzance runs im sorry it makes no sense at all.

Where to send them is difficult but i still maintain XC would be better.

 

[irish_rail]

It is safe to say 222s would be a disaster on WofE services!

They may be fine for shorter distance, less well used services to Derby and Sheffield, but on a proper long distance "intercity" route they would come unstuck!

The many reasons for this have been done to death in other posts.

Refurbished HSTs or IEPs are the way forward.

 

[tbtc]

The 222s I know have not been wanted by First Group at all

What have First Group got to do with it?

Certainly no guarantee that they'll be running the Great Western franchise by the time that HSTs are being replaced.

 

[shaun]

Considering passengers seem to currently prefer HSTs to Voyagers by quite a stretch in the West, i can't see the 222s going down particularly well. Yes, they are much better internally than the voyager but in the end they are still just a high-speed DMU really suited to 'Regional' type routes with frequent stopping patterns and greater accelleration. They're the sort of units that should've succeded Sprinters, not Intercity trains! Class 180s have an excellent bodyshelll, shame they're unreliable and a bit on the noisy side.

So it looks like HSTs are staying at the moment, no bad thing as Chiltern have shown what you can do to an ageing train and make it stand up against the competition. Nearly every journey i make on the silver sets (most weekdays), somebody comments about how much smoother and nicer they are than Virgin's trains.

I actually am looking forward to the IEP, internally at least it sounds like they're getting the balance right this time round. Also, on the bi-mode sets there is the option to avoid the underfloor engines in certain carriages which is nice.

 

[47802]

Surely if we go on the basis of what IEP is meant to be ie the standard intercity train for the UK to replace life expired Intercity trains such as HST's then surely the only solution is IEP.

But perhaps what we appear to be saying is our New Intercity Train may be too expensive to justify for the west country.

Ok I know 180's are a bit more comfortable than 222's but why would you build an updated 180 when potentially the 222 might become available?

While many potential passengers and First might not like them I can see the 222's being a possibility.

 

[TEW]

It's a possibility, just hopefully not one which will come to fruition. It's probably fairly unlikely that a TOC would order more IEP units of their own accord because of the high cost, but the DfT specifying more IEP units for West of England services can't be discounted. HSTs could be a good option in the short to medium term until it becomes clear what the electrification map is looking like for the future. New build DMUs would look like a bad idea if you had electrification through to Exeter or Plymouth, and it would also make 222s unsuitable.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Any more IEPs are guaranteed to be built in Newton Aycliffe but they found out that the E-Voyagers work would come from Germany rather than from the Alstom works or from Derby. Replacing all the HSTs and 225s with a single model of train would keep the network operationally simple and provide easier cascades when HS2 comes and changes the rail landscape dramatically.

 

[Haydn1971]

Replacing all the HSTs and 225s with a single model of train would keep the network operationally simple and provide easier cascades when HS2 comes and changes the rail landscape dramatically.

Thats a key point actually, even the DfT can't be sure what will happen post IEP being introduced, the closer we get to the opening of HS2, the clearer things will become on what we won't need to keep in terms of the legacy 125mph intercity stock. It's very likely that post HS2, we will just have three types of higher speed trains - IEP, HS2 & a classic compatible.

 

[TheWalrus]

I only suggested 222s as a short term solution after 2019 to save further investment in near life-expired HSTs which will need to be replaced soon anyway. A long term solution would be further IEP orders or some sort of Pendolino.

 

[The Ham]

... but in the end they are still just a high-speed DMU really suited to 'Regional' type routes with frequent stopping patterns and greater accelleration. T

A frequent calling pattern like that of the HST's in Cornwall where most services are stopping every 5 to 15 minutes?

Yes the 222's aren't that ideal for the London Plymouth services where they can have about half a dozen stops from end to end, but then they could be run with just a few extra IEP's.

It does very much depend on if there is use for the 222's (bearing in mind that XC could get a load of 221's from the ICWC franchise once that is relet, which could be an increase of 35% the number of sets or 40% the number of coaches if they get all of them), if there's not then it could be better to use 16 year old trains for say 15 years (from 2020) until there's a load of IEP's freed up from HS2 reducing the number of longer distance passengers on ECML and/or the line all the way to Penzance is electrified (or significantly electrified).

 

[TheWalrus]

On a different note how are they going to do catering ie Travelling Chef on bi-mode sets when they are only going to be 5-car?

 

[HSTEd]

Well the simple answer is that they won't.

 

[33Hz]

On a different note how are they going to do catering ie Travelling Chef on bi-mode sets when they are only going to be 5-car?

Maybe use the 9-car bi-mode?

 

[TheWalrus]

There isn't one for Great Western!

 

[ainsworth74]

On a different note how are they going to do catering ie Travelling Chef on bi-mode sets when they are only going to be 5-car?

Well the simple answer is that they won't.

They have a full kitchen according to the draft layouts.

 

[YorkshireBear]

They have a full kitchen according to the draft layouts.

Was that for the 5 cars though? I remember the 8 car drafts having them (now 9 cars for GW)