Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Bletchleyite]

We did have telephones in 1995 you know.

We did, but unless you were a business you didn't have easy access to group calling.

 

[Meerkat]

Is it practicable to open up really locally (a bit like my idea of local pubs for local people!)?
ie restrict travel so that outbreaks are easier to contain.
i could see it might be possible on the fringes where there are fewer routes in/out (Cornwall, Cumbria etc) but any hope of it holding without Big Brother enforcement?
Obviously public transport is easier to contain, but could you quickly adapt ANPR in traffic cars to ping anyone more than ten miles from the cars registered address??
Some kind of geographical lockdown capability might be essential if there are future fast outbreaks in one town.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Certainly Raaaab talked yesterday about the possibility of restrictions being more localised.

 

[bramling]

Er, surely it’s just a matter of the manager telling the employee that their leave is cancelled?
Or do you have an utterly stupendous employment contract where the employer has given up their rights under the Working Time Regulation for this with no exceptions? ( http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1998/1833/regulation/15/made is the relevant bit of law )

I’d have to check exact wordings, however the feeling at our place is that once leave is booked then that’s it, cancellation can only be by mutual agreement (this cuts both ways too). Whether it’s in contracts I couldn’t readily say, however it will likely be in an ER agreement somewhere.

Was any attempt to force cancellation of pre-booked leave to happen I know what would happen and it wouldn’t be pretty!

 

[bramling]

An awful lot of people would quite happily cancel leave at the moment, it's not like they can go anywhere! So the first step would be to ask people if they will cancel it, and I'd bet you will get lots of "yes", unless your industrial relations are so poor that people will say "no" just to be awkward, in which case there is quite some introspection to do.

What's likely to be more difficult is companies needing to potentially upset people by refusing to cancel now-useless leave.

In practice it’s probable it will get covered one way or other, however at this point no one wants to commit.

Personally I’d only cancel if the lockdown continues, as this gives both an incentive to come to work and a disincentive to be off work. But having said that I also fancy some time at home so it’s still by no means a certainty.

 

[MDB1images]

An awful lot of people would quite happily cancel leave at the moment, it's not like they can go anywhere! So the first step would be to ask people if they will cancel it, and I'd bet you will get lots of "yes", unless your industrial relations are so poor that people will say "no" just to be awkward, in which case there is quite some introspection to do.

What's likely to be more difficult is companies needing to potentially upset people by refusing to cancel now-useless leave.

Mine won't cancel leave however it's because they don't want the workforce all taking leave from August onwards and equally they don't want people not having a break from being in work and to ensure the leave remains spread.
I've no doubt if more go off ill then that will be reviewed and equally if you was desperate to swop to an available week later in the year you could but it seems a sensible approach.

Been on leave and was sceptical of not being able to go out/away but It's actually been very relaxing having a week off chilling out catching up on old books and unread magazines and doing nothing rathe so kinda backs up what they implemented!

 

[6862]

Obviously public transport is easier to contain, but could you quickly adapt ANPR in traffic cars to ping anyone more than ten miles from the cars registered address??

But what would they be able to do with that information? The police would never be able to stop everyone, and even if they did, I imagine a lot of people would have legitamate excuses.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But what would they be able to do with that information? The police would never be able to stop everyone, and even if they did, I imagine a lot of people would have legitamate excuses.

I think the suggestion is to make it stricter so there is no legitimate excuse, i.e. everyone must, without exception, remain within a certain radius of their home, containing any outbreaks. This is closer to what China did.

 

[Domh245]

But what would they be able to do with that information? The police would never be able to stop everyone, and even if they did, I imagine a lot of people would have legitamate excuses.

Not least where the car's registered address is nowhere near where it's being kept. I'm not a big fan of the idea of eventually going back home to a mountain of automatically triggered fines for driving within Nottingham because the car's registered in London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not least where the car's registered address is nowhere near where it's being kept. I'm not a big fan of the idea of eventually going back home to a mountain of automatically triggered fines for driving within Nottingham because the car's registered in London.

It isn't actually legal to do that anyway, the registered keeper and address is supposed to be correct.

 

[Domh245]

It isn't actually legal to do that anyway, the registered keeper and address is supposed to be correct.

I'm not getting a new V5 every year because I'm moving house regularly whilst a student...

 

[Meerkat]

But what would they be able to do with that information? The police would never be able to stop everyone, and even if they did, I imagine a lot of people would have legitamate excuses.

They don’t need to stop everyone, just stop a few and make sure everyone hears about it.
How many people really need to drive more than 10 miles for a legitimate reason - once you take out those who can easily clear a roadblock with an employers pass it will be few enough they can get an exemption letter.
Remember you don’t have to make it foolproof or too fancy - even showing an email on your phone from a company address saying you need to travel from a stated home address to a stated employment address would do. Just add a big fine for those caught using false documentation.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not getting a new V5 every year because I'm moving house regularly whilst a student...

Ah...every rule...

 

[Meerkat]

I'm not getting a new V5 every year because I'm moving house regularly whilst a student...

Then you are breaking the law (though if the car is registered to your home address out of term time that’s probably ok).

 

[Jayden99]

Not least where the car's registered address is nowhere near where it's being kept. I'm not a big fan of the idea of eventually going back home to a mountain of automatically triggered fines for driving within Nottingham because the car's registered in London.

I could do without that too, car registered in Glasgow under someone else's name spends all it's time down in Bucks, it's more common than you might think

 

[bramling]

Mine won't cancel leave however it's because they don't want the workforce all taking leave from August onwards

I can see this causing some massive upset if the shielded people return then, as there'll be a situation where those who have been working can't take leave whilst the shield people come back and straight away go on outstanding leave, resulting in them having to be covered *again*. There will need to be some very careful management of all this.

 

[Domh245]

Then you are breaking the law (though if the car is registered to your home address out of term time that’s probably ok).

That's exactly where it is registered to. It's great 'fun' as a student deciding which address to put on things - somewhere you're away from for most of the year but will be able to access on a regular long-term basis, or the address that you'll have for (likely) one year and will need to update every summer, but that's getting off-topic!

I could do without that too, car registered in Glasgow under someone else's name spends all it's time down in Bucks, it's more common than you might think

Based on what's been said, that may be a bit iffy (unless it's also a student situation).

It's certainly plausible for other false negatives to be flagged - family with two houses was in second house when lockdown began and figured that they'd see it out in their second house than move back to main address for the duration. I decided to stay in Nottingham rather than head back to London as I figured heading into the centre of the outbreak in the UK wouldn't be the smartest of moves! But then again, reading @Meerkat's suggestion it seems that it's a "flag for questioning" rather than flag and fine - in which case I'm a bit less against the issue as I think I could quite reasonably explain my way out of it

 

[Bletchleyite]

Based on what's been said, that may be a bit iffy (unless it's also a student situation).

Even if it is, the name is the registered KEEPER, not the registered owner. Putting it in someone else's name is almost certainly not legal, and may cause issues with any insurance policy - most insurers have issues with cars not registered to the insured main driver, and if you lie about that your policy is likely not valid.

 

[Meerkat]

My old neighbour got pulled over because ANPR flagged that the car wasn’t registered to the same address as the registered owners driving licence. Didn’t get fined but it was a long stop.
Thats the risk people take - it gives the coppers a legal reason to pull you. Then they can check documents, start checking the tyres, breathalyser, etc etc, and if you fail the attitude test or they just don’t like you.....

 

[6862]

I think the suggestion is to make it stricter so there is no legitimate excuse, i.e. everyone must, without exception, remain within a certain radius of their home, containing any outbreaks. This is closer to what China did.

I mean legitimate excuses after the current lockdown restrictions end (if they do). Surely they will have to allow some resumption of intercity travel (by road/rail/bus etc.) at some point, or will we be going back to some pre-19th century situation where most people never leave their village/town/suburb?

I assume you were not implying that such measures should be permanent?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I mean legitimate excuses after the current lockdown restrictions end (if they do). Surely they will have to allow some resumption of intercity travel (by road/rail/bus etc.) at some point, or will we be going back to some pre-19th century situation where most people never leave their village/town/suburb?

I assume you were not implying that such measures should be permanent?

Currently, essential intercity travel is possible.

One possible way out is to ban all intercity travel, even if it would be considered essential, from a city that needs a greater level of lockdown.

Obviously it wouldn't be permanent, just as the present situation isn't.

 

[bramling]

Currently, essential intercity travel is possible.

One possible way out is to ban all intercity travel, even if it would be considered essential, from a city that needs a greater level of lockdown.

Obviously it wouldn't be permanent, just as the present situation isn't.

I think it’s going to, in reality, prove difficult to implement variations in lockdown. We really will at some point need to get away from the possibility of a medium-term view forming that someone from a particular area is a potential disease-spreader.

I’m glad I’m not making decisions at the moment, as every option has pitfalls galore.

 

[ChrisC]

They don’t need to stop everyone, just stop a few and make sure everyone hears about it.
How many people really need to drive more than 10 miles for a legitimate reason - once you take out those who can easily clear a roadblock with an employers pass it will be few enough they can get an exemption letter.
Remember you don’t have to make it foolproof or too fancy - even showing an email on your phone from a company address saying you need to travel from a stated home address to a stated employment address would do. Just add a big fine for those caught using false documentation.

I have certainly noticed a significant increase in the volume of traffic passing through my village in Nottinghamshire during the past week. At the beginning of the lockdown it was lovely when I was out on my daily walk to see the village free from traffic and not to have the constant noise of traffic. It was like going back in time 50 years. This afternoon I had to stand waiting quite a while for a stream of traffic to pass before I crossed the road, whereas a few weeks ago you could stand in the middle of the road with no cars in sight. My sister has noticed a similar increase in traffic through her village over in Lincolnshire. Our city centres may be empty but there does seem to be an increase in traffic along main roads passing through rural areas. When I see all this traffic, I do wonder why they are all travelling and is it just me that is only using my car once a week to go to the shops in a neighbouring village.

Something which made me feel very sad whilst out on my walk this afternoon was all gates to our village churchyard padlocked shut. The church is way down a lane isolated away from the centre of the village. They have had to lock the gates due to groups of teenagers from the nearby town about 3 miles away gathering in the churchyard and meeting in groups in the church porch. It’s bad enough having the church building closed during this difficult time, but now people from the village cannot even visit and place flowers on graves of relatives because of the irresponsible actions of a few from outside the village.

 

[bramling]

I have certainly noticed a significant increase in the volume of traffic passing through my village in Nottinghamshire during the past week. At the beginning of the lockdown it was lovely when I was out on my daily walk to see the village free from traffic and not to have the constant noise of traffic. It was like going back in time 50 years. This afternoon I had to stand waiting quite a while for a stream of traffic to pass before I crossed the road, whereas a few weeks ago you could stand in the middle of the road with no cars in sight. My sister has noticed a similar increase in traffic through her village over in Lincolnshire. Our city centres may be empty but there does seem to be an increase in traffic along main roads passing through rural areas

Something which made me feel very sad whilst out on my walk this afternoon was all gates to our village churchyard padlocked shut. The church is way down a lane isolated away from the centre of the village. Ap They have had to lock the gates due to groups of teenagers from the nearby town about 3 miles away gathering in the churchyard and meeting in groups in the church porch. It’s bad enough having the church building closed during this difficult time, but now people from the village cannot even visit and place flowers on graves of relatives because of the irresponsible actions of a few from outside the village.

Same in the London area. This week has seen a noticeable increase in traffic levels and people out and about.

It’s quiet this moment probably because it’s raining for only about the second time since the lockdown came in, but this is the exception.

A colleague turned away a family out of a station who were taking the train to go for a walk. Not being critical workers they were turned away.

 

[Domh245]

I noticed the roads were noticeably busier today compared to previous weeks as well.

 

[squizzler]

According to the hard nosed money men of UBS bank, the rail industry will be smashing it after we become free-ranging again:

(Post edited due to numerical error)

A UBS report has found that the Covid-19 pandemic could accelerate the shift of passengers from air to rail, post-lockdown, with greater than expected growth in the rail industry over the next 10 years.

The report from the Swiss multinational investment bank, By train or by plane? The traveller’s dilemma after Covid-19 and amid climate change concerns, says counties are unlikely to abandon their ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 2050, and passengers are more likely accept longer travel times by train.

Covid-19 is still expected to have major short-term implications, with UBS estimating a -0.5% contraction in global GDP in 2020 and 4.5% growth in 2021. However, the rail industry is expected to bounce back, showing strong growth over the next decade.

 

[bramling]

According to the hard nosed money men of UBS bank, the rail industry will be smashing it after we become free-ranging again, with 4.6% growth forecast for 2021.

Surely it all depends on how deep a recession results from all this. It’s always the case that recessions impact rail travel.

I don’t see how anyone can make accurate assessments of economic impact at the moment as there’s so many unknowns.

 

[HH]

According to the hard nosed money men of UBS bank, the rail industry will be smashing it after we become free-ranging again, with 4.6% growth forecast for 2021.

I shall immediately tell my broker to short UBS (not really, I don't have a broker). The feeling in the industry is pretty unanimous in the opposite direction.

 

[MDB1images]

De Lijn map of a Bus with social distancing.

. We ask our travelers to keep a sufficient distance from our vehicles.

• We therefore only allow a limited number of travelers by bus or tram.
• Travelers are divided over the vehicle: not to sit or stand next to each other.

 

[bussnapperwm]

Sure, a measure of diplomacy is required. But ultimately if a number of people are due to be on leave who are critical to the running of the business as has been stated, then the leave needs to be cancelled. I assume the people who would normally provide cover are off sick, self-isolating, shielding etc. so leave could likely be taken once they return.
It’s not something to be done on a whim as that would be illegal, but is there for exceptional circumstances. These are exceptional circumstances we’re going through.

If senior management said to my department annual leave was cancelled, exceptional circumstances or not, half the department would be on the phone to their union reps (and the one union rep is particularly militant when it comes to the departments management. He tried on numerous occasions to have the union higher ups hold a ballot for industrial action over management considering redundancies in a completely different department to his!)