Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Qwerty133]

If senior management said to my department annual leave was cancelled, exceptional circumstances or not, half the department would be on the phone to their union reps (and the one union rep is particularly militant when it comes to the departments management. He tried on numerous occasions to have the union higher ups hold a ballot for industrial action over management considering redundancies in a completely different department to his!)

No union is going to behave so stupidly while a Tory government is in power as they would basically be asking for more restrictions on union activities.

 

[bramling]

No union is going to behave so stupidly while a Tory government is in power as they would basically be asking for more restrictions on union activities.

And likewise no employer is going to behave so stupidly at a time when they’re utterly reliant on goodwill from staff.

Meanwhile any suggestion of forcing staff to work is injudicious as no one wants to see tired and fatigued staff performing safety-critical tasks. As I posted elsewhere, as time goes on this is going to require focus to avoid becoming a major issue.

 

[baz962]

There's little doubt about that now. However there are an awful lot of people that won't survive financially if the IMF's forecasts for economic downturn are anywhere near accurate. Something like global economies shrinking by 30-40%, and 400-600 billion people worldwide thrown into poverty. Even though we have the pressing matter of dealing with the spread of the virus, these kind of forecasts will be taking more & more priority as the weeks press on. It could be seriously damaging in this country, but imagine the impact in poorer countries? I foresee mass movements of refugees in the coming years, which will only add even more pressure to those countries they seek to go to.



The US is the biggest worry of them all. In the UK we panic buy toilet roll, in the US they panic buy guns, cheered on by the NRA & the Trump administration. And the very same are going to want to punish someone sometime soon. If Trump survives the election (assuming he doesn't announce his dictatorship before then) I have a horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that they will be on the war path, literally.

I very much doubt that's accurate . Current world population estimates are 7.8 billion .400-600 billion people thrown into poverty is just a tad off . Either that or there are one or two unregistered births about.

 

[Bantamzen]

I very much doubt that's accurate . Current world population estimates are 7.8 billion .400-600 billion people thrown into poverty is just a tad off . Either that or there are one or two unregistered births about.

Doh! I meant millions, now corrected.

 

[david1212]

With plenty of time to think I have been pondering this. Given reasonable timing and fares I prefer to use public transport than drive. Mostly when choosing a town as a holiday base public transport to the surrounding area is a key factor.

Once there is some relaxation of the current regulations and recommendations regarding non essential travel and time away from home for non essential reasons the choice will be the risk from fairly close contact with others for the duration of the journey plus contact with any infection on the surfaces or driving. Initially at least I will probably choose driving.

I'm sure 2m social distancing will be still strongly advised even if no longer enforced for a long time. I think most will voluntarily adhere to it. Worst case my thinking is there is much less risk from briefly being close to someone who is a Covid-19 carrier but not showing symptoms and particularly not coughing or sneezing than being near to them for the duration of a bus or train journey.

I had been planning for a couple of railtours this year. These have been rescheduled to August and September. Even if permitted to run very debatable if sufficient people will book to be viable. Again I consider there is a significant risk from being close contact with others for several hours.

 

[jagardner1984]

I think you hit the nail on the head there. Obviously when lockdown is reduced some people will return to trains, some out of financial necessity and some out of choice. I think it’s much more interesting going forward how many will choose to avoid public transport where possible (hence the rapid measures on active travel being taken). I wonder if in particular leisure travel may be decimated, and what the demand will be for domestic flights. I’d imagine the DfT would allow some gradual timetable increments, with extra services added by demand. The cynical part of me thinks this will give Operators great scope to get rid of Bits of operations they find annoying or not cost effective.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I certainly think there's a danger of another Beeching. The Conwy Valley is in particular danger. I hope if we lose it as a railway we can at least keep it as a cycleway, which might allow for future reopening.

 

[Cardiff123]

I certainly think there's a danger of another Beeching. The Conwy Valley is in particular danger. I hope if we lose it as a railway we can at least keep it as a cycleway, which might allow for future reopening.

Why would there be another Beeching? Ok, passenger numbers might fall for the time being whilst Covid-19 is around, but we also in a climate crisis. We are getting boiling hot summers, this spring is already drier and warmer than normal, and we started the year with devastating floods.

Whilst more people might travel in their cars for now, once the Covid crisis is over and we get effective drugs and/or a vaccine, promoting public transport over the car will very much have to be back on the agenda.

So you'd hope that if some lines do become uneconomical during this crisis that they are mothballed and not closed, or just kept open with a Parliamentary service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why would there be another Beeching?

Money, primarily. The economy is going to be in a state. And electric buses may be better for the environment than a Class 153 with its polluting, 1980s diesel engine. And with fewer passengers...

 

[yorksrob]

I certainly think there's a danger of another Beeching. The Conwy Valley is in particular danger. I hope if we lose it as a railway we can at least keep it as a cycleway, which might allow for future reopening.

I think that more at risk groups probably will avoid public transport, certainly until there's a game changing medical breakthrough.

However, either there will be the said breakthrough, or the virus will die out or become endemic, like all other epidemics previously, when proximity to other people will become less of a threat, in which case public transport will become more popular again. I'd hope they'd mothball said line, rather than close it.

 

[Esker-pades]

I certainly think there's a danger of another Beeching. The Conwy Valley is in particular danger. I hope if we lose it as a railway we can at least keep it as a cycleway, which might allow for future reopening.

And yet the government gave HS2 the go-ahead during the lockdown. So, perhaps not?

 

[Bletchleyite]

And yet the government gave HS2 the go-ahead during the lockdown. So, perhaps not?

Also a fair point - they don't want to be cutting jobs, they probably want to be creating them, and a driver and guard on a "one man, dog and bicycle" branch line are in employment.

 

[greyman42]

A very similar announcement was also made by the First Minister today in Wales (but with it being Wales, it won't get any national media coverage by the London based national media) and Chris Whitty didn't mince his words on Wednesday when he said that "highly disruptive social distancing measures" will be with us for at least the rest of this year, and until we get a vaccine and/or effective drugs to treat the symptoms of the virus.
It's obvious that the leisure and hospitality industries will be the very last to re-open, and even then it'll be with strict social distancing measures and capacity limits in place.

It is not up to Chris Witty. He advises from a medical point of view and has no interest in the economy and peoples livelihoods.

 

[Cardiff123]

It is not up to Chris Witty. He advises from a medical point of view and has no interest in the economy and peoples livelihoods.

And if the virus is let loose and over-runs society again, we'll be back in an even harsher lockdown within days. So as the goverment is "following the science" and we have a PM who allegedly almost lost his life to the virus, i'm betting his advice carries a lot of weight with the PM.

 

[HH]

The decision around lockdown loosening will determine our glorious leader's legacy, presuming he comes out of his own personal lockdown in Chequers. It's not an easy decision, despite the political posturings of the Scottish & Welsh First Ministers. I'm beginning to wonder if the delay is to see what happens in the countries that are ahead of us in the "curve", i.e. those that have loosened already. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be clear before our government is forced into doing something.

 

[Cardiff123]

The decision around lockdown loosening will determine our glorious leader's legacy, presuming he comes out of his own personal lockdown in Chequers. It's not an easy decision, despite the political posturings of the Scottish & Welsh First Ministers. I'm beginning to wonder if the delay is to see what happens in the countries that are ahead of us in the "curve", i.e. those that have loosened already. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be clear before our government is forced into doing something.

It's not political posturing. The First Ministers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are well within their rights to set out their post lockdown plans, even if Westminster doesn't want to, and have the powers to vary the lockdown and social distancing measures in their nations if they think it's appropriate.

 

[yorksrob]

Better to have a restricted border, than to not be able to move outside of your village.

 

[Cardiff123]

Better to have a restricted border, than to not be able to move outside of your village.

I agree. I cannot understand why the CEO's of airlines are so bullish about people wanting to return to international flights so soon. It's the perfect way to spread the virus around the world again.

 

[bramling]

Better to have a restricted border, than to not be able to move outside of your village.

That’s if we get a restricted border, of course.

We didn’t get it first-time round, and if we had all that would have happened is we’d have seen even more moaning like from that couple stuck on the cruise ship.

 

[yorksrob]

That’s if we get a restricted border, of course.

We didn’t get it first-time round, and if we had all that would have happened is we’d have seen even more moaning like from that couple stuck on the cruise ship.

We were following the advice provided. Countries like Australia and Hong Kong (yes, even they don't trust a word Beijing says) which slapped restrictions on the moment they knew something was amiss, have ended up with far fewer cases. There will be people who need to get in, however they will be able to go into a forced quarantine.

If it gets to the point where our outbreak is under control, and another country is at their peak, I expect we'll see very tight restrictions in from there.

 

[Meerkat]

It will be much easier to restrict the border once repatriations finish. When we had possibly over a million British people abroad wha were they to do - they couldn’t test them, and couldn’t quarantine them.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

I agree. I cannot understand why the CEO's of airlines are so bullish about people wanting to return to international flights so soon. It's the perfect way to spread the virus around the world again.

Probably because they think they're airline will go bust if they don't start carrying passengers soon.

A bit like a number of people I know who own and run pubs, small cafes and other tourism / hospitality related industries who have so far all said their business will not survive any prolonged closure period, especially to later in the year, unless there are very significant additional government grants and the furlough scheme continues. Although they are equally worried their small premises would make the business unviable if they were able to open, the grants and furlough schemes were stopped as a result, but they had very strict social distancing which would reduce their footfall and income. There are many such businesses where I live and a large chunk of the local economy and employment relies on that sector and there are many people concerned and worried about their livelihoods, homes, etc. I suspect whilst they are currently 'Ok' in due course they will be pushing to reopen and for people to visit again, as it is people moving around visiting places which they need to survive.

 

[Cardiff123]

Probably because they think they're airline will go bust if they don't start carrying passengers soon.

A bit like a number of people I know who own and run pubs, small cafes and other tourism / hospitality related industries who have so far all said their business will not survive any prolonged closure period, especially to later in the year, unless there are very significant additional government grants and the furlough scheme continues. I suspect whilst they are currently 'Ok' in due course they will be pushing to reopen and for people to visit again, as it is people moving around visiting places which they need to survive.

Unfortunately, this is also exactly what spreads the virus. I do have sympathy for people in the hospitality industry who are worried about their livelihoods and the govt furlough scheme must be extended beyond June to cover the hospitality industry, because unfortunately, as a 'socialising' industry, it's the industry hit hardest by the virus restrictions.

As an enormous contributor to climate change, I don't have any sympathy for airlines, and I hope post-pandemic there is a return to much more sensible levels of flying than we've seen in the last 10-20 years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That’s if we get a restricted border, of course.

We didn’t get it first-time round, and if we had all that would have happened is we’d have seen even more moaning like from that couple stuck on the cruise ship.

The difference is that (if you believe the Government) everyone who needs to be back home now is.

 

[bramling]

The difference is that (if you believe the Government) everyone who needs to be back home now is.

Interesting then that we have staff at my work apparently stuck in both Nigeria and Poland...

 

[387star]

We won't see another beeching
Almost everyone regrets that many years on with the exception of some lines whuch admittedly were doomed

Railways are seeing a renaissance. People love railways in general.

 

[HH]

It's not political posturing. The First Ministers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are well within their rights to set out their post lockdown plans, even if Westminster doesn't want to, and have the powers to vary the lockdown and social distancing measures in their nations if they think it's appropriate.

It's always political posturing. That they are legally able to publish their plans doesn't mean it isn't. Westminster is doing political posturing too, by not publishing their plans.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting then that we have staff at my work apparently stuck in both Nigeria and Poland...

I suspected that might be economical with the truth.

But you could have closed borders that were slightly porous that would still work, i.e. anyone can leave, anyone entering must agree to 14 days quarantine at a Government facility plus testing.

 

[Merle Haggard]

I suspected that might be economical with the truth.

But you could have closed borders that were slightly porous that would still work, i.e. anyone can leave, anyone entering must agree to 14 days quarantine at a Government facility plus testing.

Not trying to defend the Government but the statement I heard on R4 was that 'everyone on holiday has now been returned'.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not trying to defend the Government but the statement I heard on R4 was that 'everyone on holiday has now been returned'.

Ah, that could well be accurate.