Lumo applies to operate Rochdale - London

[YorkRailFan]

It must be.

Long term wise how about extending it all the way to Bradford and put in another platform adjacent to the run round loop ?

I was going to suggest Halifax and reinstate the 3rd platform but extending it to Bradford could potentially (if pathing allowed) a semi fast service from Bradford to Manchester.

Bradford - Halifax - Rochdale - Manchester

Bradford and Halifax already have a London service meaning many would simply use it as an express to Manchester. Whether that could fit in with Northern services is another question.

 

[skyhigh]

Long term wise how about extending it all the way to Bradford and put in another platform adjacent to the run round loop ?

That would be a huge investment for an open access operator to make, and I'm not entirely sure there's even paths available with the current timetable and TRU diversions.

 

[Clarence Yard]

I'd assume a deal is 'worked out' and just needs the dotted line signing once the TAA is agreed?

That is exactly how it’s done.

 

[MylesHSG]

Getting paths on busy lines can often be subject to timetables so staking claim to paths now forces Network Rail and ORR to look at why they can't fit now, or when others alter services in future, explain why new operator still can't have few paths.

It is going to be much harder to get paths Litchfield - Lancashire if wait until HS2 operator has also bid for slots or changes.

HS2 is going to get priority on the WCMLN, the government (of any colour) is going to have to, to save face.

 

[Topological]

If we are going for unlikely extensions, send it round to Burnley.

Rochdale is likely to be fine as a terminus, especially as this is obviously all about Manchester.

 

[Halifaxlad]

A route that already has 2 trains per hour from Leeds that take 45 minutes from Halifax to Manchester.

I'd love a faster service to Manchester but the way to do it isn't by skipping two stations that Northern call at, but by raising the linespeed and other infrastructure improvements.

There is rationale for more faster services between Manchester & Bradford.

If you could achieve a stopper that could do it in half an hour or less then, but I doubt it.

Using the Calder Valley may make it unnecessary to build a new line to Huddersfield, although the benefit with that line is improving connectivity between Bradford & Huddersfield!

I presume you would have all services stop at Walsden, Sowerby Bridge and Mytholmroyd, if you could have your way?

If it was possible, how about having a half-hourly semi fast services, but then everything else stopping at all stations?

 

[td97]

Rochdale is likely to be fine as a terminus, especially as this is obviously all about Manchester.

Would Bolton make more sense? Especially as there has been movement for Bolton to have a direct London service.

 

[JonathanH]

Would Bolton make more sense? Especially as there has been movement for Bolton to have a direct London service.

Bolton isn't an option if the approach to Manchester is via Eccles. No operator is going to get a path to operate from London through platforms 13 and 14 at Manchester Piccadilly.

 

[zwk500]

There is rational for more faster services between Manchester & Bradford.

There is, but co-opting this proposal is not the way to do it.

Using the Calder Valley may make it uneccessary to build a new line to Huddersfield although the benefit with that line is improving connectivity between Bradford & Huddersfield!

You would still need the main Transpennine Route Upgrade for Leeds-Manchester traffic. And TRU also raises the question of whether Bradford-Manchester direct might be better served via Huddersfield than via Hebden Bridge (including serving places like Brighouse).

If it was possible how about having a half hourly semi fast services but then everything else stopping at all stations ?

I suspect that trying to speed trains up on the Calder Valley will end up needing some more signals putting in. Which probably should happen anyway, but won't be off the back of an Open Access application.

If we are going for unlikely extensions, send it round to Burnley.

Rochdale is likely to be fine as a terminus, especially as this is obviously all about Manchester.

If you were serving Burnley would you not try and run via Blackburn?

Would Bolton make more sense? Especially as there has been movement for Bolton to have a direct London service.

Bolton is the wrong side of Manchester for the route proposed. You'd need a reversal at Manchester Victoria, or to find an alternative way to pass the revenue abstraction tests with a routing that ends up passing through Stockport (good luck finding paths through Castlefield or across Heaton Norris Jn). Probably one for the speculative discussion as to how Bolton could be served by an OAO.

 

[357]

There is rational for more faster services between Manchester & Bradford.

If you could achieve a stopper that could do it in half an hour or less then, but I doubt it.

Using the Calder Valley may make it uneccessary to build a new line to Huddersfield although the benefit with that line is improving connectivity between Bradford & Huddersfield!

I presume you would have all services stop at Walsden, Sowerby Bridge and Mytholmroyd if you could have your way ?

If it was possible how about having a half hourly semi fast services but then everything else stopping at all stations ?

Personally, I rarely use any station on that route between apart from Bradford and Manchester, so if I could have my own way I would close them all, increase linespeed to 125 and have trains running directly from Bradford to Manchester non-stop (sarcasm)

My point was that skipping stations won't achieve better journey times. Check the time difference between the two services at the moment - one stops at 2 extra stations and is only a couple of minutes slower. The linespeeds are too low.

Every half an hour is OK in my eyes, but faster journey times would make the service more attractive and result in me spending more evenings in the pub with @bengley

 

[Topological]

If you were serving Burnley would you not try and run via Blackburn?

Yes, though that would not offer the Manchester stop. An extension would give Todmorden a London service too. I don't think we would ever see an extension, but at least Burnley offers something a little bit different. Bradford already has London trains.

As I noted, the best option is just to terminate at Rochdale. Manchester Victoria would be even better as a termination point commercially, but operationally is harder.

 

[Neptune]

It’s very interesting seeing all these proposals on non electrified routes. Lumo prides itself on its green credentials (using BEMU’s with no hint of diesel power). Running beyond Rochdale on battery power on steep pennine routes just couldn’t happen as it stands.

Why, when an OA proposal comes out do so many people decide that it’s wrong and needs extending to x, y & z or needs to go via so-and-so instead?

 

[Snow1964]

First won’t be able to lease anything unless they obtain a track access agreement. The financiers and/or ROSCOs won’t sign a deal with any OA operator unless they have one.

OK, but reading last years Corporate report and half year Financial statements (the next full report is due 11th June) for First Group plc. I am not convinced they will lease them (Based on various notes and the Lease Commitments note to accounts.

I think there is high chance they will contract for the trains and buy them, using own funds. They effectively have a backup plan in that they could always use them on existing Lumo (or Hull) services and return any existing rented stock.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Bradford and Halifax already have a London service meaning many would simply use it as an express to Manchester. Whether that could fit in with Northern services is another question.

Thats percisely why it would be useful!

(If it did begin and terminate at Bradford)

 

[Clarence Yard]

OK, but reading last years Corporate report and half year Financial statements (the next full report is due 11th June) for First Group plc. I am not convinced they will lease them (Based on various notes and the Lease Commitments note to accounts.

I think there is high chance they will contract for the trains and buy them, using own funds. They effectively have a backup plan in that they could always use them on existing Lumo (or Hull) services and return any existing rented stock.

They will not - they are not in the business of committing that amount of capital to rolling stock. They view Rail companies as largely cash flow businesses, hence their attractiveness. They will be leased.

The Lumo and Hull units are leased for their full TAA terms so there are no opportunities for hand back. If anyone tried to put that in a ROSCO lease, the lease price would go through the roof!

 

[357]

Thats percisely why it would be useful!

(If it did begin and terminate at Bradford)

Am I missing something really obvious about this idea?

Will it take a different route to the Northern services?

Bradford has 2 trains and hour to Manchester every day of the week. They take between 50 and 56 minutes, and call at 5 stations after Halifax.

Even running non-stop from Bradford to Manchester won't save that much time as the linespeed isn't that high - at a guess you could save around 10 minutes for the 5 stations after Halifax, Halifax itself has a 30mph speed limit through the platforms so the time lost by stopping is minimal.

I'm sorry if I'm missing something obvious but I don't see the point of this service as for someone who uses this line regularly I wouldn't plan my day around a few express services when there is clockface northern service that only takes an extra ten minutes.

Thats percisely why it would be useful!

That's precisely why it's primarily abstractive and won't be allowed to run.

 

[Grimsby town]

Yes, though that would not offer the Manchester stop. An extension would give Todmorden a London service too. I don't think we would ever see an extension, but at least Burnley offers something a little bit different. Bradford already has London trains.

As I noted, the best option is just to terminate at Rochdale. Manchester Victoria would be even better as a termination point commercially, but operationally is harder.

If there's capacity for an extension and the battery range issue can be sorted, I think an extension to Blackburn calling at Burnley and Accrington only would be popular. I've travelled up to Accrington from Manchester a few times recently. The northern service is essentially a stopping train and runs hourly. A faster service with better quality rollingstock would attract new passengers on Manchester trips as well as attracting London passengers. Unfortunately, I don't expect to see this go ahead with the lack of capacity around Manchester and on the WCML..

 

[Neptune]

That's precisely why it's primarily abstractive and won't be allowed to run.

Unless of course it is P/U only at Halifax, Rochdale, Man Vic, Eccles, Newton Le Willows. Other than that the idea of extending to Bradford would result in an immediate no. I’m not sure that everyone fully understands the phrase ‘must not be primarily abstractive’ hence all these great (sic) ideas about extending beyond Rochdale.

 

[JonathanH]

If there's capacity for an extension and the battery range issue can be sorted, I think an extension to Blackburn calling at Burnley and Accrington only would be popular. I've travelled up to Accrington from Manchester a few times recently. The northern service is essentially a stopping train and runs hourly. A faster service with better quality rollingstock would attract new passengers on Manchester trips as well as attracting London passengers.

Who would it be popular with? The direct route from Blackburn to London is via Preston. The direct route from Blackburn to Manchester is via Bolton. There are high quality bus links between Burnley and Manchester. The route via Copy Pit is very slow and any faster trains have to fit in with the calling patterns of the stopping services.

However, the worse bit of all for the open access operator is that it ties up 125mph rolling stock on routes where the train is barely going 40mph. If the lucrative flow is between London and the Greater Manchester conurbation, what you really want to do is have the train set spending as much time as possible where the money is. The sole purpose of open access operators is to maximise revenue, not contribute significantly to the social railway.

 

[zwk500]

Unless of course it is P/U only at Halifax, Rochdale, Man Vic, Eccles, Newton Le Willows. Other than that the idea of extending to Bradford would result in an immediate no. I’m not sure that everyone fully understands the phrase ‘must not be primarily abstractive’ hence all these great (sic) ideas about extending beyond Rochdale.

If it's PU only at Man Vic it then completely fails to meet @Halifaxlad's objective of a fast Bradford-Manchester service. Presumably the idea would be that sufficient 'churn' at Manchester would still allow the lucrative Manchester-London traffic for Lumo but I suspect that the extra costs of operating beyond Rochdale would not be outweighed by what revenue was gained.

 

[Neptune]

If it's PU only at Man Vic it then completely fails to meet @Halifaxlad's objective of a fast Bradford-Manchester service. Presumably the idea would be that sufficient 'churn' at Manchester would still allow the lucrative Manchester-London traffic for Lumo but I suspect that the extra costs of operating beyond Rochdale would not be outweighed by what revenue was gained.

That’s exactly my point. To pass the not primarily abstractive test it would have to avoid duplicating what the incumbent TOC operates.

 

[Snow1964]

That’s exactly my point. To pass the not primarily abstractive test it would have to avoid duplicating what the incumbent TOC operates.

The primarily abstractive test is 30% across the whole route.

It is a weighted average, so one station pair could exceed this if it was lower elsewhere to bring overall back under 30%

 

[Grimsby town]

Who would it be popular with? The direct route from Blackburn to London is via Preston. The direct route from Blackburn to Manchester is via Bolton. There are high quality bus links between Burnley and Manchester. The route via Copy Pit is very slow and any faster trains have to fit in with the calling patterns of the stopping services.

However, the worse bit of all for the open access operator is that it ties up 125mph rolling stock on routes where the train is barely going 40mph. If the lucrative flow is between London and the Greater Manchester conurbation, what you really want to do is have the train set spending as much time as possible where the money is. The sole purpose of open access operators is to maximise revenue, not contribute significantly to the social railway.

People from Burnley and Accrington to Manchester and London. A population of over 200k with very poor rail services to both Manchester and London. Even for Blackburn to London, the attraction of direct services would generate passengers. Journey times from Blackburn to Manchester would be similar to the route via Bolton if operated limited stop. Grand Central have made far more circuitous routes work to London without the added benefit of catering for journeys between a large urban area and the UK's 2nd (or 3rd) biggest city.

The bus service is slower than the rail service and is pretty unreliable when I've used it. Its also been cut back to Shudehill I believe so doesn't have the benefit of serving the whole city centre directly now.

On fitting between the stopping services, I did clarify that it would be dependent on capacity being available. I'm not sure it would be. As I say I don't think the service will go ahead anyway.

 

[skyhigh]

If you could achieve a stopper that could do it in half an hour or less then, but I doubt it.

Not a chance in hell you could get a stopper or express to do Manchester to Bradford in under 30 mins without significant and major changes to the infrastructure.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

People from Burnley and Accrington to Manchester and London. A population of over 200k with very poor rail services to both Manchester and London.

Wasn't the hourly through service from Blackburn to Manchester Victoria and beyond (via Accrington, Burnley Manchester Road and Todmorden) meant to improve rail connectivity between East Lancashire and Manchester?

 

[Grimsby town]

Wasn't the hourly through service from Blackburn to Manchester Victoria and beyond (via Accrington, Burnley Manchester Road and Todmorden) meant to improve rail connectivity between East Lancashire and Manchester?

It's a definite improvement on no direct services to Manchester for East Lancs but its still poor for such a large urban area. Accrington and Burnley could easily be commuter towns for Manchester but the current journey times and low frequency limit that potential. Moving towards a half hourly, faster service fits with the local and regional transport plans. That doesn't have to be an open access London service, but given that connectivity to London isn't great either, it would provide for both flows.

 

[Neptune]

It's a definite improvement on no direct services to Manchester for East Lancs but its still poor for such a large urban area. Accrington and Burnley could easily be commuter towns for Manchester but the current journey times and low frequency limit that potential. Moving towards a half hourly, faster service fits with the local and regional transport plans. That doesn't have to be an open access London service, but given that connectivity to London isn't great either, it would provide for both flows.

I’m intrigued to know what the market for such East Lancs to London journeys is and how long it will take for Lumo to recoup such costs bearing in mind faster journeys can be made with 1 change at Preston.

Also how are you getting around the BEMU range issue (or lack of)? Nobody seems to want to acknowledge that one for either Bradford or East Lancs.

 

[Grimsby town]

I’m intrigued to know what the market for such East Lancs to London journeys is and how long it will take for Lumo to recoup such costs bearing in mind faster journeys can be made with 1 change at Preston.

Also how are you getting around the BEMU range issue (or lack of)? Nobody seems to want to acknowledge that one for either Bradford or East Lancs.

Based on East Lancs population size and the advantage trains have on journeys have to London, there'd clearly be a market to London.

Why would it be slower than via Preston?

Burnley to Preston is 35 minutes. Add a 15 minute change at Preston and then 22 minute journey time to Warrington Bank Quay gives a total journey time of 72 minutes.

Burnley to Manchester is 46 minutes with stops at Todmorden, Littleborough, Smithy Bridge, and Rochdale. 40 minutes would be doable with only a stop at Rochdale. Victoria to Bank Quay is 33 minutes. Adding a couple of minutes for a Victoria stop gives a total of 75 minutes. So barely any difference in journey time but the significant advantage of being a direct service.

As for battery range, I quite clearly acknowledge that would constrain the current service

If there's capacity for an extension and the battery range issue can be sorted, I think an extension to Blackburn calling at Burnley and Accrington only would be popular.

 

[Neptune]

Based on East Lancs population size and the advantage trains have on journeys have to London, there'd clearly be a market to London.

Clearly based on fact? Or finger in the air estimate?

Why would it be slower than via Preston?

Burnley to Preston is 35 minutes. Add a 15 minute change at Preston and then 22 minute journey time to Warrington Bank Quay gives a total journey time of 72 minutes.

Burnley to Manchester is 46 minutes with stops at Todmorden, Littleborough, Smithy Bridge, and Rochdale. 40 minutes would be doable with only a stop at Rochdale. Victoria to Bank Quay is 33 minutes. Adding a couple of minutes for a Victoria stop gives a total of 75 minutes. So barely any difference in journey time but the significant advantage of being a direct service.

Preston is a minimum 8 minute connection time so it should be based off that. Also estimations of the direct time are massively dependent on pathing as you always see with OA so could end up sat awaiting time at a few junctions.

As for battery range, I quite clearly acknowledge that would constrain the current service

So it’s all pretty moot at the moment as Lumo will be using BEMU’s.

 

[The Planner]

Where are all these paths appearing from via Vicc too? Again they would have to be time bound as TRU will just plough through it all.