Main revenue flows on the WCML

[deltic]

As part of Network Rail's West Coast South Strategic Advice https://t.co/cQgSc66RrU a large amount of revenue data has been published which is highly unusual, albeit it relates to annual revenue pre-covid. However, it gives an excellent picture of the main markets and the dominance of London to Manchester. The table shows the biggest London markets and a selection on non-London ones. Appendix B also shows data on how many people are travelling between some of the markets as well.

		£m - annual pre-covid
London	Manchester	204
London	Birmingham	96
London	Liverpool	84
London	Milton Keynes	52
London	Glasgow	48
London	Preston	38
London	Birmingham Int	37
London	Coventry	35
London	Chester	28
London	Northampton	25
London	Watford J	23
London	Rugby	21
London	Wilmslow	20
London	Stoke	19
Birmingham	Manchester	11
Coventry	Birmingham	9
Birmingham	Liverpool	4
Birmingham	Glasgow	4
Birmingham	Edinburgh	4

Mod Note: Subsequent to this post being made Appendix B (which contained the revenue information) was removed from the document. A copy of of Appendix B however is attached to this post for ease of reference in the future.

 

[The Planner]

Reinforces the second Liverpool somewhat, but still shows that Cov corridor and Manchester are the money makers.

 

[JonathanH]

Birmingham	Manchester	11
Coventry	Birmingham	9
Birmingham	Liverpool	4

These are very illuminating when it comes to forum threads which query why Liverpool isn't on the XC network, why it is difficult to justify longer trains on XC, and how it is probably worth XC's while continuing to carry passengers between Coventry and Birmingham.

I guess there is a question about whether revenue between Birmingham and Manchester was suppressed by the lack of capacity, but to only be 5% of the revenue between London and Manchester is somewhat telling.

 

[Magdalia]

Thanks for sharing.

There are some interesting omissions: what about London to/from Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe and Runcorn?

 

[Parjon]

Reinforces the second Liverpool somewhat, but still shows that Cov corridor and Manchester are the money makers.

"Somewhat"?

The city produces nearly half the revenue of Manchester with less than a third of the services.

By my fag packet calculations, that also makes the line exceptionally more profitable.

This data clearly and unambiguously blows away a lot of guff that's been put out about Liverpool over the years, namely in order to justify its shafting by HS2.

 

[The Planner]

"Somewhat"?

The city produces nearly half the revenue of Manchester with less than a third of the services.

By my fag packet calculations, that also makes the line exceptionally more profitable.

This data clearly and unambiguously blows away a lot of guff that's been put out about Liverpool over the years, namely in order to justify its shafting by HS2.

Doesn't mean doubling the service doubles the revenue though? Even if you divided 204 by 3tph to get 68, I wouldnt necessarily call the 16 million difference exceptional.

 

[DarloRich]

Easy conclusion: stop all trains at MKC. ( told you!)

 

[deltic]

Thanks for sharing.

There are some interesting omissions: what about London to/from Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe and Runcorn?

some can be found in the report - Wolverhampton is £14m, Stafford £15m, - Crewe and Runcorn are not

 

[station_road]

"Somewhat"?

The city produces nearly half the revenue of Manchester with less than a third of the services.

By my fag packet calculations, that also makes the line exceptionally more profitable.

This data clearly and unambiguously blows away a lot of guff that's been put out about Liverpool over the years, namely in order to justify its shafting by HS2.

Add Stoke and Wilmslow and the figure for the Manchester trains is roughly three times that of Liverpool - none of the stops in the Liverpool service are in the top revnue drivers, but I doubt that Runcorn contributes more than Stockport and Macclesfield added together.

 

[mangyiscute]

Easy conclusion: stop all trains at MKC. ( told you!)

If east west rain went to MKC, I'd agree, since this would offer connections to a lot of places - it could act like the Reading of the GWML

 

[Peterthegreat]

Does the table include all WCML flows with a value of over £4m or is it just a selection? If the former I find it hard to believe Chester generates more than 7 times the revenue of Wolverhampton, Warrington, Wigan, Lancaster or Carlisle.

 

[Flying Claret]

London-Chester seems high in comparison with some of the others...

 

[deltic]

Does the table include all WCML flows with a value of over £4m or is it just a selection? If the former I find it hard to believe Chester generates more than 7 times the revenue of Wolverhampton, Warrington, Wigan, Lancaster or Carlisle.

The data includes Wolverhampton £14m but not the other destinations

 

[Clarence Yard]

London-Chester seems high in comparison with some of the others...

It is a good earner. For those who want to know, it is about as half as much again as Wigan and Lancaster and about twice as much as Carlisle.

I am very surprised that the figures in the report have been made publicly available. The DfT usually hate this - I wonder if someone at NR might be getting a call in the next few hours.

 

[deltic]

.

I am very surprised that the figures in the report have been made publicly available. The DfT usually hate this - I wonder if someone at NR might be getting a call in the next few hours.

So am I, some of us have been pushing for years for greater transparency and have always been pushed back on the grounds its all commercially confidential - now Network Rail goes and publishes data that isn't actually its to release.

 

[A S Leib]

I'm slightly surprised by how low EUS - WFJ is compared to some of the others considering usage numbers (I think in 2019 only Euston, Birmingham New Street, Manchester Piccadilly and Glasgow Central had more passengers than Watford Junction on the WCML), but I suppose that a) a lot higher proportion of passengers at Watford Junction are making short journeys - easier with 4+ tph to Hemel, Harrow, Willesden etc. compared to one or two local services per hour via Birmingham International or Macclesfield and b) cheaper fares, and presumably fewer people bothering with first class for fifteen minutes.

 

[Gwr12345]

I'm slightly surprised by how low EUS - WFJ is compared to some of the others considering usage numbers (I think in 2019 only Euston, Birmingham New Street, Manchester Piccadilly and Glasgow Central had more passengers than Watford Junction on the WCML), but I suppose that a) a lot higher proportion of passengers at Watford Junction are making short journeys - easier with 4+ tph to Hemel, Harrow, Willesden etc. compared to one or two local services per hour via Birmingham International or Macclesfield and b) cheaper fares, and presumably fewer people bothering with first class for fifteen minutes.

Avanti West Coast are Set down and pick up only at Watford junction, trains between them are either by London Northwestern or the Overground.

 

[A S Leib]

Avanti West Coast are Set down and pick up only at Watford junction, trains between them are either by London Northwestern or the Overground.

Has London Northwestern got rid of First Class? If they have, I'd forgotten.

Edit: apparently there are First Class fares between Watford Junction and Euston, but only via Clapham Junction.

 

[dk1]

Reinforces the second Liverpool somewhat, but still shows that Cov corridor and Manchester are the money makers.

Very much so. Many thought Glasgow should be the priority but Virgin & BR knew their prime market very well indeed.

 

[Djgr]

"Somewhat"?

The city produces nearly half the revenue of Manchester with less than a third of the services.

By my fag packet calculations, that also makes the line exceptionally more profitable.

This data clearly and unambiguously blows away a lot of guff that's been put out about Liverpool over the years, namely in order to justify its shafting by HS2.

It is difficult to comment on profits without having sight of the costs.

Manchester has three times the revenue of Liverpool but with three times as many trains and three times as many operating costs?

 

[JonathanH]

Many thought Glasgow should be the priority but Virgin & BR knew their prime market very well indeed.

If that is true it seems a little odd that BR used to only run 1tph to Manchester (with some extras in the peak).

 

[Parjon]

It is difficult to comment on profits without having sight of the costs.

Manchester has three times the revenue of Liverpool but with three times as many trains and three times as many operating costs?

It must be more than three times the cost, when you consider the staffing requirements involved in that many trains moving around. Also re profitability, it's worth noting that a good deal of passengers using this service will be related to BBC and other quasi-government/government business. In other words, public money paying the fares. One benefit of being sidelined for twenty years is that we can say definitively, there is little public money paying for train fares to Liverpool...

The move from 1tph to 3tph for Manchester wasn't so much a "market" decision but a government one. It has no doubt stimulated demand, just as a paltry 1tph in similar circumstances suppresses.

 

[Merle Haggard]

It's pre-Covid. I travelled on Avanti trains then, when it was not unusual for a 9-car to be full and standing in the first (=2 1/2 coaches). Nowadays both 9 and 11 have only j & K (= 1 1/2) and I've always had a choice of (unreserved) seat and sometimes been lonely!

What I suggest that means is that the 'business travel' point to points (Euston to Birmingham/Manchester/Liverpool) will have lost a lot of the '300 quid to Manchester' (or equivalent) customers and presumably suffered a big drop in revenue as a result, whereas the flows from London to stations such as Northampton, Wolverhampton, Stafford, and North of Weaver Junction will perhaps have not seen the same decline, because they have never had many expense account first class business travellers. That's just my anecdotal opinion - it would be interesting to see the current figures, or indeed any other opinions.

 

[dk1]

If that is true it seems a little odd that BR used to only run 1tph to Manchester (with some extras in the peak).

They upped the game on that with Intercity running a half-hourly service with more in the peaks. Manchester has absolutely bloomed in the last 20 years. Makes sense for the railway to chase the money & it’s paid off handsomely.

 

[Rail Ranger]

Birmingham to London is of course also served by Chiltern and LNW and Liverpool-Euston can be done with LNW whereas there is no rail competition between Manchester and London. It is not clear if the quoted figures are just Avanti revenue.

 

[dk1]

Birmingham to London is of course also served by Chiltern and LNW and Liverpool-Euston can be done with LNW whereas there is no rail competition between Manchester and London.

I think Chilterns influence has wained immensely in the last few years. All that investment & competition they shew seems to have gone to the dogs. DfT I’d imagine has no interest in them showing enthusiasm for a market that competes with another rail industry concession.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Wilmslow is interesting - just above Stoke. Prior to the VHF timetable there was only a token London service and at one point was threatened with complete withdrawal. A very dramatic change - it would be interesting to see the figure for Macclesfield.

 

[deltic]

Birmingham to London is of course also served by Chiltern and LNW and Liverpool-Euston can be done with LNW whereas there is no rail competition between Manchester and London. It is not clear if the quoted figures are just Avanti revenue.

The figures are for London BR to Birmingham BR ie they cover all operators

 

[rapmastaj]

The extreme dominance of London flows, compared to the revenue for travel between England's 2nd and 3rd largest cities, shows how depressingly skewed this country's economic geography is. Although post-pandemic this may have reduced slightly, with the loss of business travellers.

Do these data include journeys involving changes, or would London-Manchester for example strictly represent tickets for Euston to Manchester Picadilly only?

 

[dk1]

Wilmslow is interesting - just above Stoke. Prior to the VHF timetable there was only a token London service and at one point was threatened with complete withdrawal. A very dramatic change - it would be interesting to see the figure for Macclesfield.

From what I recall Wilmslow like much of Cheshire had a very healthy proportion of above average earners & wealthy residents. This was deemed as a likelihood for first class revenue something which appeared to pay off during off peak as well as previously targeted peak times.