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More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

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Howardh

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Unless you live until 90 you are unlikely to use HS2 to Manchester. And even that I would say is slim chance...
You haven't half made my afternoon! :frown::E

There must be a fair-to-middling chance that by the time it's built it's obsolete (if folks simply don't travel/commute as much, or better transport methods are available).
 
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Bletchleyite

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I some ways I think Phase 2b has a better justification than 2a.

Phase 2b unlocks a lot of extra capacity in Manchester and deals with probably the most complex part of NPR at the same time. In contract Phase 2a is a "only" journey time reduction. I don't see a great need for additional capacity on the WCML north of Handsacre.

Maybe the priority of the two phases should be switched? Phase 2b could be delivered earlier and tweaked to better align with NPR (e.g. including the full section towards Warrington), connecting to the existing line to Crewe south of the Airport.

An incoming Labour government could also spin it as starting the next phase in the North to aid "leveling up".

I've raised this before and in principle agree. However, 2A is by far the cheapest bit as it's above ground and through open countryside, so you might as well build it and get the ability to have more local trains on the classic Trent.
 

fishwomp

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I've raised this before and in principle agree. However, 2A is by far the cheapest bit as it's above ground and through open countryside, so you might as well build it and get the ability to have more local trains on the classic Trent.
Local trains for....

Lichfield population 106,000
Nuneaton .. 88,000
Rugeley .. 26,000
Edit: forgot Tamworth 79,000.( Even Cross Country forget Tamworth)

.. who mostly/overwhelmingly need to go to Birmingham, not to Stafford/Rugby and beyond.. are we sure this is a good market needing more than current service?
 
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SCDR_WMR

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Local trains for....

Lichfield population 106,000
Nuneaton .. 88,000
Rugeley .. 26,000
Edit: forgot Tamworth 79,000.( Even Cross Country forget Tamworth)

.. who mostly/overwhelmingly need to go to Birmingham, not to Stafford/Rugby and beyond.. are we sure this is a good market needing more than current service?
Lichfield and Tamworth are usually the busiest of the Trent Valley stops north of Rugby for LNR services. There is absolutely a need for a more frequent service, though DfT are forcing through capacity increases over service levels
 
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jfowkes

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There must be a fair-to-middling chance that by the time it's built it's obsolete (if folks simply don't travel/commute as much, or better transport methods are available).

Why wouldn't people travel as much?
What better modes of transport?
 

reddragon

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I think we have a fundamental problem here.

The Victorians just build a railway where they wanted and thought best in the get out of the way, railway coming through approach that has enabled China to build 10s of thousands of miles of high speed lines. This is what is needed for new high speed rail and other rail projects to make them a real long term benefit. Not doing so has lost support, credibility and value for money.

A bit like the Jay Foreman videos on the North Circular (get out of the way new road coming through) and the South Circular (sorry but may I squeeze through) approach. We have fully adopted the South Circular approach for new transport arteries putting them away from the need, circuitous and looking a bit awkward thus unpopular. Look at the East-West Rail eastern leg!

HS2 has become a line from somewhere west of London to a branch into the run down edge of Birmingham to not sure where so of course, figures no longer add up , support fades and delays happen.

To get strong infrastructure that's needed it must be built in the best place and that requires demolition, tunnels and vision. Otherwise we may as well give up and become a Chinese colony!
 

Howardh

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Why wouldn't people travel as much?
What better modes of transport?
The point I was trying to make is, we don't know and we don't know. That's the future....who knows what's coming in the decade after next?? As for the first part, we've worked remotely since covid and I imagine commuting will become less and less, leaving only tourist and leisure travel and who knows if that will be affordable? That could be the issue with HS2, fewer commuters, just tourists who can't afford it??
As for better travel, again who knows? Guided coaches travelling down their own lanes along motorways powered by overhead lines, at 100mph as (like rail) they are separated from everyone else (private cars might be prohibitively expensive by then, tolls, taxes, electric only etc) and driven by artificial intelligence? Might be fantastic, now, but 2050??
 

vic-rijrode

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Oh boy, this is getting towards the last straw for investment in this country. Am I the only one who is sitting in front of my keyboard screaming out loud at the supreme folly of the decisions made by politicians and the 52% in the last dozen years - not just on transport - and the resultant dive into a third rate impoverished country over the next few years?

My only consolation is that, being in my middle 70s, I will not be around to see the total shambles this country will be in by 2040. However my 2 granddaughters unfortunately probably will be (or will have emigrated).
 

The Planner

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Local trains for....

Lichfield population 106,000
Nuneaton .. 88,000
Rugeley .. 26,000
Edit: forgot Tamworth 79,000.( Even Cross Country forget Tamworth)

.. who mostly/overwhelmingly need to go to Birmingham, not to Stafford/Rugby and beyond.. are we sure this is a good market needing more than current service?
Why are LNWR increasing Trent Valley trains to 12 cars if there isn't the market? As well as Avanti adding Nuneaton stops into Manchester services?

HS2 has become a line from somewhere west of London to a branch into the run down edge of Birmingham to not sure where so of course, figures no longer add up , support fades and delays happen.
Both ends will just get redeveloped though. OOC has plenty of rabbit hutch flats being built.
 

JamieL

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The point I was trying to make is, we don't know and we don't know. That's the future....who knows what's coming in the decade after next?? As for the first part, we've worked remotely since covid and I imagine commuting will become less and less, leaving only tourist and leisure travel and who knows if that will be affordable? That could be the issue with HS2, fewer commuters, just tourists who can't afford it??
As for better travel, again who knows? Guided coaches travelling down their own lanes along motorways powered by overhead lines, at 100mph as (like rail) they are separated from everyone else (private cars might be prohibitively expensive by then, tolls, taxes, electric only etc) and driven by artificial intelligence? Might be fantastic, now, but 2050??
Are you typing that whilst on a train travelling on a railway built in the 1850s?
 

HSTEd

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The issue is how much would it have cost to build if someone wanted to do it in the UK? Look at the insane projections for NPR - £40bn or whatever it got to, for a line shorter than that tunnel. Where does the money go?
We seem to have a lot of schemes that are conceived based on outdated conceptions of what is "cheap" and "easy".

HS2 has had endless issues with not having any idea of the true value of land it was attempting to compulsorily purchase for construction, involving whistleblowers and runaway increases in land budgets etc etc etc etc.

Extensive engineering optimisations are expended trying to trim minor percentages of material or other costs, whilst costs in other "soft" areas continue to skyrocket. And as mentioned before, for the aforementioned reasons the optimisations can end up making things worse rather than better.

Schemes also designed with extensive 'enabling works' to improve "efficiency of construction" and such, but that just makes the scheme ever more complex and risks bringing about cascading failures that can cause spiralling delays and costs.
 

BahrainLad

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The point I was trying to make is, we don't know and we don't know. That's the future....who knows what's coming in the decade after next?? As for the first part, we've worked remotely since covid and I imagine commuting will become less and less, leaving only tourist and leisure travel and who knows if that will be affordable? That could be the issue with HS2, fewer commuters, just tourists who can't afford it??
As for better travel, again who knows? Guided coaches travelling down their own lanes along motorways powered by overhead lines, at 100mph as (like rail) they are separated from everyone else (private cars might be prohibitively expensive by then, tolls, taxes, electric only etc) and driven by artificial intelligence? Might be fantastic, now, but 2050??

All this gadget-bahn-stuff has been "coming soon" since the invention of the railways...can you imagine if the French had taken the view in the 1970s that aerotrains, monorails, flying cars, moon colonies were just around the corner and therefore they shouldn't build the TGV?
 

LNW-GW Joint

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The Independent is reporting that Jeremy Hunt wants to keep cuts to HS2 up his sleeve so that he can deliver tax cuts next year as demanded by Tory MPs.
This sounds like the worst kind of short-term politics in order to offer tax cuts in the upcoming election manifesto.
I'm not sure I believe this, because long-term capital spend is quite separate from short term current account revenue/taxation.
I would have thought HS2 spend might have to compete with increased defence capital spend with the current international tensions.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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All this gadget-bahn-stuff has been "coming soon" since the invention of the railways...can you imagine if the French had taken the view in the 1970s that aerotrains, monorails, flying cars, moon colonies were just around the corner and therefore they shouldn't build the TGV?
Noting the emboldened part of the posting above, will what was once referred to as "Breitspurbahn" see the like in Britain?
 

Richardr

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The Independent is reporting that Jeremy Hunt wants to keep cuts to HS2 up his sleeve so that he can deliver tax cuts next year as demanded by Tory MPs.
This sounds like the worst kind of short-term politics in order to offer tax cuts in the upcoming election manifesto.
I'm not sure I believe this, because long-term capital spend is quite separate from short term current account revenue/taxation.
I would have thought HS2 spend might have to compete with increased defence capital spend with the current international tensions.
As you suggest, any cash savings would come several years down the line, not in the next 12 months, if they were to cancel the project beyond Birmingham. However, one assumes they are looking to fiddle the figures to offer a short term tax cut that will need to be reversed as usual following the election.
 

Tezza1978

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The Independent is reporting that Jeremy Hunt wants to keep cuts to HS2 up his sleeve so that he can deliver tax cuts next year as demanded by Tory MPs.
This sounds like the worst kind of short-term politics in order to offer tax cuts in the upcoming election manifesto.
I'm not sure I believe this, because long-term capital spend is quite separate from short term current account revenue/taxation.
I would have thought HS2 spend might have to compete with increased defence capital spend with the current international tensions.
That Independent quote sounded like speculation...as cuts would not deliever immediate savings. Unless the government are stupid enough to physically stop work on phase 1 - I can imagine images & videos of deserted, half finished HS2 construction sites would be absolutely perfect for Labour party political broadcasts and election literature. Would truly sum up how broken this country is..... and how its been damaged further by this rotten government.
 

HSTEd

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All this gadget-bahn-stuff has been "coming soon" since the invention of the railways...can you imagine if the French had taken the view in the 1970s that aerotrains, monorails, flying cars, moon colonies were just around the corner and therefore they shouldn't build the TGV?
Given that maglevs are potentially going to be in major service on the Chuo Shinkansen before the HS2 project is completed even as far as Phase 2A, I hesitate to call them gadgetbahns.
 

jfowkes

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Given that maglevs are potentially going to be in major service on the Chuo Shinkansen before the HS2 project is completed even as far as Phase 2A, I hesitate to call them gadgetbahns.

Unless there's major adoption of this kind of intercity maglev, I think it's fair to call it a gadgetbahn, or at least a bahn-of-limited-utility.

The Shanghai maglev hasn't exactly spurred building of similar systems over the world in the way that "normal" high speed rail has.
 

Xavi

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As inflation bites, that figure will buy you less and less.
The IRP figure was a current price, it was always known it would need to be indexed to account for inflation. Although Treasury ignores that when convenient. And, tax receipts will rise and rise. It’s a well known fact that inflation benefits governments in the medium term, reducing the relative cost of (non-indexed linked) debt and increasing tax receipts.
 

Chester1

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Given that maglevs are potentially going to be in major service on the Chuo Shinkansen before the HS2 project is completed even as far as Phase 2A, I hesitate to call them gadgetbahns.

The problem with Maglev isn't just construction cost but the amount of power needed to run above 220 mph and the near zero benefit of doing so in the UK. Unless Maglevs become much cheaper to build than HS rail then it doesn't make any sense for the UK. A HS line is known, reliable technology and the trains can run onto the existing network.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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What makes sense near term is to give phase 1 an unrestricted budget so it can be completed as fast as economically possible currently its being constrained by a capped annual budget. Phase 2 is so far in the future that cancelling it now is just politiking. They may do it so they can force Labour to make a clear statement on its intentions.
 

The Ham

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The point I was trying to make is, we don't know and we don't know. That's the future....who knows what's coming in the decade after next?? As for the first part, we've worked remotely since covid and I imagine commuting will become less and less, leaving only tourist and leisure travel and who knows if that will be affordable? That could be the issue with HS2, fewer commuters, just tourists who can't afford it??
As for better travel, again who knows? Guided coaches travelling down their own lanes along motorways powered by overhead lines, at 100mph as (like rail) they are separated from everyone else (private cars might be prohibitively expensive by then, tolls, taxes, electric only etc) and driven by artificial intelligence? Might be fantastic, now, but 2050??

Even if the need to travel fell by 50%, given rail is about 10% of the number of miles travelled and car travel have high upfront costs (purchase costs and annual costs which are little variation bars in miles traveled), I'm not sure that rail would actually lose out all that much.

Arguably, if you're doing 2,000 miles a year it's likely to be cheaper to use a mix of taxis, public transport and walking than own a car.
 

eldomtom2

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Given that maglevs are potentially going to be in major service on the Chuo Shinkansen before the HS2 project is completed even as far as Phase 2A, I hesitate to call them gadgetbahns.
I definitely wouldn't put money on the Chuo Shinkansen being finished before Phase 2A!
 

Mikey C

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The Independent is reporting that Jeremy Hunt wants to keep cuts to HS2 up his sleeve so that he can deliver tax cuts next year as demanded by Tory MPs.
This sounds like the worst kind of short-term politics in order to offer tax cuts in the upcoming election manifesto.
I'm not sure I believe this, because long-term capital spend is quite separate from short term current account revenue/taxation.
I would have thought HS2 spend might have to compete with increased defence capital spend with the current international tensions.
I personally don't believe this either, as you can't produce jam today from savings 5-10 years in the future. And the City would see though it, as Hunt himself will be well aware, seeing that he was the Chancellor who reversed most of the disastrous Truss/Kwarteng budget after the financial meltdown it caused.
 

HSTEd

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The problem with Maglev isn't just construction cost but the amount of power needed to run above 220 mph and the near zero benefit of doing so in the UK. Unless Maglevs become much cheaper to build than HS rail then it doesn't make any sense for the UK.
There are certainly many benefits to employing maglev technology in the UK.

For example it can accelerate like a tube train (or faster!) all the way to 500kph because the traction power is not constrained by weight limitations in the vehicle.
Chuo Shinkansen accelerations are limited primarily by passenger comfort, sustaining values above 1.1m/s/s pretty much all the way to max speed.

Stopping from 500km/h, holding doors open for a minute and accelerating back to 500km/h costs you only about 3 minutes! The operational implications of such capability are pretty clear (what if the tube went to Manchester?).



But all this is rather off topic so I won't derail the thread, I would start another but last time I tried noone was interested in discussing it!
 
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The Ham

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There are certainly many benefits to employing maglev technology in the UK.

For example it can accelerate like a tube train (or faster!) all the way to 500kph because the traction power is not constrained by weight limitations in the vehicle.
Chuo Shinkansen accelerations are limited primarily by passenger comfort, sustaining values above 1.1m/s/s pretty much all the way to max speed.

Stopping from 500km/h, holding doors open for a minute and accelerating back to 500km/h costs you only about 3 minutes! The operational implications of such capability are pretty clear (what if the tube went to Manchester?).



But all this is rather off topic so I won't derail the thread, I would start another but last time I tried noone was interested in discussing it!

I suspect in part because most are likely to be conservative about it and would rather see something like HS2 which can see rail services continue beyond the extent of the new infrastructure without having to change trains.

For example HS2 improves journey times to (say) Liverpool even though the line doesn't actually go there. Unless you can connect to a line with tube type frequencies the improved speed would likely be lost by having to change trains.

If you double from 60mph to 120mph that cuts the journey time (120 mile trip) from 2 hours to one hour, double again to 240mph and it reduces to 30 minutes, however double it again to 480 and it reduces to 15 minutes.

However if you then need to finish off by changing trains even a 5 minute change time wipes out much of that advantage.

Whilst HS2 does deal with longer distance and so the savings could be greater, even at 240 miles (London to Blackpool) whilst that could be done in about 30 minutes, if the infrastructure doesn't actual go there then the time savings soon get reduced quite quickly just from changing trains, let alone if the local service is slower.

Also isn't there complications with junctions, meaning that most routes to date are simple point to point systems?

Whilst some opposed to HS2 would suggest that they would be better, the benefits are more limited, especially given the main purpose of HS2 is about capacity (the speed is there to ensure that the capacity is actually used and to mean that the trains can be longer without actually needing more rolling stock than is currently required, or at least not much more).

As I've highlighted before, if all the 390's were running around with 12 coaches with around 660 seats (an often cited way of increasing capacity for the WCML) or even an 11 coach 80x with around 825 seats (only 70 of which are first class) they would need more coaches to do the London Manchester run than a 16 coach HS2 train.

11 coaches taking 5 hours to run London, Manchester, London and New ready to run back Manchester again, at 3tph would require 165 coaches.

HS2 would reduce that from 5 hours to 3 hours, so due the same frequency but with 16 coaches per train it would require 144 coaches.

Meglev (assuming the London Manchester journey times is 40 minutes) would reduce the round trip time for the ruling stock to 2:20 (mostly as the turn around times are n't score to be reduced compared to HS2 or even classic trains). To run a 16 coach train would require 112 coaches (however that only really works so well as the service is 3tph.

Arguably because of that reduction in rolling stock you could run longer trains, however it's already expensive enough to build 400m long platforms, so longer would add further costs. Especially if you started to need to add moving walkways to reduce the walk time for (say) getting the 500m from one end of the train to the other or even to the middle as you try to get to where you're going.

I'm not saying that the technology wouldn't every be built, however it's probably better to build HS2 increase general rail usage because of that and then be able to justify ultra high speed rail (UHS) because there's already a lot of demand for rail.

It could even be that UHS1 is built London to Edinburgh (East Coast) to relieve capacity issues with HS2 and remove the need for any flights between London and the Central Belt.

By doing so it wouldn't render HS2 obsolete, it may remove the need for the London Scotland services, but they could be used to increase the number of HS2 services to (say) Liverpool.

Therefore, there's as good chance that even if UHS was delivered in the UK then HS2 would still be beneficial to be delivered.
 

zwk500

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The Independent is reporting that Jeremy Hunt wants to keep cuts to HS2 up his sleeve so that he can deliver tax cuts next year as demanded by Tory MPs.
This sounds like the worst kind of short-term politics in order to offer tax cuts in the upcoming election manifesto.
I'm not sure I believe this, because long-term capital spend is quite separate from short term current account revenue/taxation.

I would have thought HS2 spend might have to compete with increased defence capital spend with the current international tensions.
I would totally believe that Politicians would deliberately try and misrepresent a link between capital spending and taxes, as they've successfully done so for years.
 
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