More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[brad465]

Does delaying actually save costs? I recall reading further back that it only increases them as inflation accumulates further.

 

[zwk500]

Does delaying actually save costs? I recall reading further back that it only increases them as inflation accumulates further.

It spreads the costs over a longer period, important for political things (but also can make the borrowing costs easier to negotiate). However yes inflation won't help.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Does delaying actually save costs? I recall reading further back that it only increases them as inflation accumulates further.

No, but it does defer "peak spend" on HS2 which looks to be untenable at the inflated rate now likely.
Even so, it's hard to limit Phase 1 spend with most contracts let (including the first track contract just let).
Delaying Phase 2a will put HS2 trains on the WCML for longer between Lichfield and Crewe.
Crewe-Manchester is not through parliament yet so no spend currently, but it will affect plans for NPR which was to use the same route into Manchester.
Euston delay would prolong the use of OOC as a terminus.
There really would be a problem if there is a delay to Delta-Handsacre (ie the Phase 1 link to the WCML).

 

[Pinus contorta]

This was always likely to happen when the decision was made not to start construction at both ends of the line. Salami slice cuts comes to mind.

 

[Dan G]

Do they not know how inflation works?

It'll never be cheaper than now to build it

Apparently not. Our government appears to be as thick as muck.

HS2 line between Birmingham and Crewe delayed by two years

Government blames soaring construction prices but says it is "committed" to the high speed rail link.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[SCDR_WMR]

HS2 line between Birmingham and Crewe delayed by two years

Government blames soaring construction prices but says it is "committed" to the high speed rail link.

www.bbc.co.uk

As I kinda expected, it's definitely going to Birmingham and likely never any further.

By Birmingham, I presume you mean Phase 1. Given that the earthworks are well underway up to the WCML join at Handsacre I can possibly see it stopping at Curzon St regardless of finances

 

[HSTEd]

Does delaying actually save costs? I recall reading further back that it only increases them as inflation accumulates further.

It allows the Treasury to make a red box on their spreadsheet go green, which is all they really care about.

Future costs are someone else's problem, or they will just quietly axe the project later

 

[bib]

If they delay Phase 2a, that presumably means they won't scrap Handsacre Jn, which was discussed in another thread.

From the Oakervee review:

the government should consider making changes to the scheme to remove the Handsacre connecton, and investgate how best to maintain or improve services on the WCML to Stoke-on-Trent, Staford and Macclesfeld (without HS2). The Review considers that the Handsacre connecton would only be needed if it was decided not to proceed with Phase 2a to Crewe

 

[Neen Sollars]

Those of us who have always been of the opinion HS2 was not needed, and going to cost many many times more ££££££££££s than the original estimate have been proved correct. Those of us who wanted construction of the line to start from both ends Birmingham to Leeds and Manchester have also been proved correct. So much for "levelling up", more wealth transferred from the north to the south via HS2. Highly like the line will revert to its original Phase 1 plan, stop HS2 construction at Handsacre and link it to the WCML as originally planned. (er).

 

[Neen Sollars]

How much would that cost in terms of compensation for cancelled contracts, clearing/demolishing work already started and loss of jobs?

Yes the vandalism has already been done, just build the original Phase 1.

 

[Howardh]

Do you genuinely believe that scrapping it now would be a good idea? If so, please explain why.

I appreciate that you might not have wanted it built in the first place, but we are where we are.

As an outsider I assume there's probably too much been done already which makes it difficult to cancel now. Unless tunnels and whatever can be used for rail/roads etc I don't know. And again as an outsider, if it's just Birmingham - Old Oak or even Crewe - Old Oak then it's of zero use to me, I'll probably die before completion, whereas if the thing had never been started the money could have been spent on current rail improvements...and have some left over??

 

[12LDA28C]

whereas if the thing had never been started the money could have been spent on current rail improvements...and have some left over??

Incorrect. If 'the thing' had never been started, the money to pay for it wouldn't exist.

 

[The Planner]

Those of us who have always been of the opinion HS2 was not needed, and going to cost many many times more ££££££££££s than the original estimate have been proved correct. Those of us who wanted construction of the line to start from both ends Birmingham to Leeds and Manchester have also been proved correct. So much for "levelling up", more wealth transferred from the north to the south via HS2. Highly like the line will revert to its original Phase 1 plan, stop HS2 construction at Handsacre and link it to the WCML as originally planned. (er).

Where do the extra trains that building the northern bits first go?

 

[quantinghome]

It will all get built one way or the other eventually, because once the main trunk route from London to Handsacre is in place, extensions will have a high benefit on investment.

As with most infrastructure this delay will only compound the costs and stretching the construction out leads to a longer time of disruption for those living along the route. No one benefits from this.

 

[SirDanielGooch]

It’s an awful lot of money spent to just extend a London commuting corridor up to Birmingham. It’s been obvious from the start that:
A.) The UK rail network desperately needs a proper high speed network
B.) The network needs to extend to the north west and north east, and be completed in its entirety, to feel the real benefits.
and C.) The government would screw it right up, the first phase would run massively over budget, and the rest of the project gets scaled back as a result.

We run the risk of HS2 becoming a London-Birmingham exclusive white elephant, an expensive monument to the UKs inability to do anything properly. So so frustrating.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

We run the risk of HS2 becoming a London-Birmingham exclusive white elephant...

Nail... Head.

 

[Floul1]

It will all get built one way or the other eventually, because once the main trunk route from London to Handsacre is in place, extensions will have a high benefit on investment.

As with most infrastructure this delay will only compound the costs and stretching the construction out leads to a longer time of disruption for those living along the route. No one benefits from this.

Except of BCR will now be skewed by the fact that it's not a follow on project, so all the wind down of contracts etc will have to be brought back to speed. Make no mistake, this is the beginning of the end for HS2 as originally envisioned. Crewe can't be justified without Manchester and they're delaying Manchester further, this will only end in one outcome.

 

[camflyer]

Yes the vandalism has already been done, just build the original Phase 1.

Which would give us an expensive railway line which is of no use to the north of England or Scotland. To have any real benefit it has to go to Manchester and beyond. I'm sure all of the people demanding that it should be stopped at Birmingham would then complain that it only goes to Birmingham.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It’s an awful lot of money spent to just extend a London commuting corridor up to Birmingham. It’s been obvious from the start that:
A.) The UK rail network desperately needs a proper high speed network
B.) The network needs to extend to the north west and north east, and be completed in its entirety, to feel the real benefits.
and C.) The government would screw it right up, the first phase would run massively over budget, and the rest of the project gets scaled back as a result.

We run the risk of HS2 becoming a London-Birmingham exclusive white elephant, an expensive monument to the UKs inability to do anything properly. So so frustrating.

Indeed. Just as an Old Oak to Brum service it basically has no value at all. People will continue to use legacy services from Euston - very heavy use of LNR has proven that speed isn't that important if it's reasonable and the price is right.

It needs to be built fully or not at all. I'd prefer fully.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Mar 2023 ==

Which would give us an expensive railway line which is of no use to the north of England or Scotland. To have any real benefit it has to go to Manchester and beyond. I'm sure all of the people demanding that it should be stopped at Birmingham would then complain that it only goes to Birmingham.

It also needs to go to Euston. A main station in the western suburbs is what you'd expect to see in a banana republic*, not Western Europe.

* OK, Thailand isn't a banana republic, but Bang Sue Grand or whatever it's called now is exactly that mistake.

 

[jfowkes]

Where do the extra trains that building the northern bits first go?

Between Birmingham and all the various HS2 destinations north of Birmingham, one presumes.

 

[quantinghome]

We run the risk of HS2 becoming a London-Birmingham exclusive white elephant, an expensive monument to the UKs inability to do anything properly. So so frustrating.

HS2 should have been a multi-project programme rather than a single project. That's the fundamental problem - it's become this single "thing" rather than a general programme. Can we imagine if the motorway network had been planned as a single project?

Except of BCR will now be skewed by the fact that it's not a follow on project, so all the wind down of contracts etc will have to be brought back to speed. Make no mistake, this is the beginning of the end for HS2 as originally envisioned. Crewe can't be justified without Manchester and they're delaying Manchester further, this will only end in one outcome.

Have any main construction contracts been let for the Crewe section?

Even if things are brought to a halt, the case for extension will still be overwhelming. Just as it was for the A14 Huntingdon-Cambridge, Jubilee line extension, Crossrail, M1-A1 extension, WCML upgrade and any number of other transport projects which have been cut back then completed later at greater expense.

 

[adamedwards]

"Prime Minister, if we delay HS2 now then the new Labour government will have to make the decision to carry on and then you can spend years accusing them of wasting vast sums of money.". "What and excellent idea, Sir Humphrey."

 

[HSTEd]

Any delays will be de-facto cancellation, Labour won'be in a position to continue them because the project teams will likely have been laid off by then. Even if Labour manages to win the next election - they can say whatever they want in the interim.

Any Labour government will be forced to pay tens of billions to start almost from scratch.

 

[The Planner]

Between Birmingham and all the various HS2 destinations north of Birmingham, one presumes.

So not onwards to London, so you are still building a chunk of phase 1 to enable that anyway.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Have any main construction contracts been let for the Crewe section?

No, just enabling contracts (land purchase, utility diversion, work site setup, detailed design etc).
Main civils contracts are due later this year I think.

 

[The Planner]

No, just enabling contracts (land purchase, utility diversion, work site setup, detailed design etc).
Main civils contracts are due later this year I think.

If phase 2a goes then say goodbye to anything at Crewe itself as well. The 1980s layout will just get sweated more.

 

[jfowkes]

So not onwards to London, so you are still building a chunk of phase 1 to enable that anyway.

Yes, but politically it would have been a much easier sell to people who think that the South/London gets everything at the expense of the North.

It might be a terrible idea logistically, operationally, even economically. But politically, "look at the new shiny train line between Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds" sells a lot better than "Here's another London-centric project".

 

[HSTEd]

Whilst I am certainly in favour of high speed rail operations in general.... we must admit that the HS2 project has not gone particularly well.

It's turned into a lumbering behemoth that is fundamentally incapable of keeping schedule or costs under control. That land cost estimate debacle was just one bungle of many.

So much political capital has been squandered by the project that more sensible project management might have saved, even if the baseline cost estimates would have been higher you'd have net saved political capital by avoiding the controversies.

 

[bob007]

We run the risk of HS2 becoming a London-Birmingham exclusive white elephant,

I predicted years ago that this would be the result. Birmingham would just become a commuter town for London, because nobody can afford to live in London anymore.

Even without Covid I don’t believe HS2 ever would have reached as far as Leeds or Manchester - Tories are just too London centric and don’t believe the North jas anything to offer

£50bn to extend the commuter towns of London instead of just investing in Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham etc. Absolutely crazy. We the public got absolutely shafted.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Where do the extra trains that building the northern bits first go?

If you build 2B first and linked it to the WCML, there wouldn't be any extra trains. Two out of the three Avanti Manchesters would run that way instead of their present route via Stoke and Stockport (one could run via Stoke and Stockport as per post-HS2 plans), and the improvements to south Manchester local services that are part of the argument for HS2 could be put in place using the paths released by that.