More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Energy]

Would annoy those in walking/short bus/tube ride of Euston, and those who use cabs to Euston wont want to go on the Lizzie.

The test to / from Canary Wharf seems to come up through this thread, but Euston provides connections to the Northern, Victoria (and under current scope) the Circle / Met / H&C lines so opens up a single connection to loads of destinations that would consider OOC a faff.

Of course, Euston is better connected but OOC isn't as inconvenient as people are saying.

 

[HSTEd]

Could they be priced off though, or is there no way of doing that which split ticketing can't swerve?

Well there is no reason VIA OOC tickets can't be cheaper than the fares on the WCML.....

 

[zwk500]

Of course, Euston is better connected but OOC isn't as inconvenient as people are saying.

The problem is that London is so large and the transport network serves different corridors so that it really depends where you are going.

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

This is incorrect. There will remain some legacy services on the WCML primarily to provide connectivity to places like Milton Keynes

I agree with you that there is likely be some residual and/or reformed WCML inter-regional and/or inter-city service, (I cannot get into the weeds on such topics as I'm not from the "service patterns" wing of rail nerdery - I'm of the "interested in the engineering" nerds.) I ask you to accept the principal of my argument, if not specific details, that "the existing WCML services will no longer exist" as they are now for those destinations HS2 serves.

 

[Mikey C]

The govt is borrowing 2B/week and as been paying 3.8-4.2% for it depending on maturity date and there is no shortage of buyers. The Bank of England is also selling down its gilt purchases at the rate of 650m/wk and again it is mobbed at every auction with sufficient buyers. So the govt could easily borrow the money this is a political decision by those that are in the cabinet now largely being anti HS2 so they can capitalise on it in advance of the general election. I also believe it will shore up the likes TRU and other Northern IPR projects to sell to the red wall seats.

This isn't free money. This year the government is forecast to spend £83bn on interest, and £47bn next year.

And there is a limit to borrowing, as Truss and Kwarteng found when they wanted to borrow more to boost growth and nearly wrecked the economy.

 

[Trainbike46]

This isn't free money. This year the government is forecast to spend £83bn on interest, and £47bn next year.

And there is a limit to borrowing, as Truss and Kwarteng found when they wanted to borrow more to boost growth and nearly wrecked the economy.

Not all borrowing is created equal for the purposes of limits though

Borrowing to build an infrastructure project that supports economic growth is rather different from borrowing for handouts to the rich, for example

 

[Nottingham59]

The following presentation to the PWI (made before the announcement of project delays) has information on the (then) planned pattern of service introduction: (I recommend slide 29.)

Thank you for that. A 6-month gap between Curzon St services starting and Handsacre services sounds about right.

Just for easy reference later, this is a screenshot of the relevant opening services levels:

 

[Mordac]

As well as leaving large areas of the countryside littered with unlandscaped earthworks, concrete and empty tunnels.

But I suppose the routing could be used to build a new road. Seems to be what people want these days - turn the whole country into one big road.

Most of the opposition to HS2 seems to be people who oppose any kind of development (be it road, rail, housing, etc) anywhere.

 

[Roast Veg]

EDIT: post moved to https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/onward-travel-options-from-old-oak-options-post-hs2.244633/

 

[JamesT]

Most of the opposition to HS2 seems to be people who oppose any kind of development (be it road, rail, housing, etc) anywhere.

Though at least a chunk of the NIMBYs state their objection is that they're getting all the disruption with no appreciable benefit. If they had a motorway with junctions every 10 miles then they would be able to use the thing that made a mess of their local area. Though I suspect you're right and they actually want no development, but will still complain about a lack of facilities in their area.

 

[Taunton]

The test to / from Canary Wharf seems to come up through this thread, but Euston provides connections to the Northern, Victoria (and under current scope) the Circle / Met / H&C lines so opens up a single connection to loads of destinations that would consider OOC a faff.

Doubtless because Canary Wharf is a single point fortuitously on the Elizabeth, but has no direct connection to Euston (which is an existing faff to get to from there). Rather a bending of arguments to suit a particular combination.

 

[Bald Rick]

not at 4% nor into an asset that will give 100years value add to the economy.

I’ve just borrowed money sufficient to buy a car at 2.9%!

(Accepted it won’t last 100 years though).

 

[Energy]

The problem is that London is so large and the transport network serves different corridors so that it really depends where you are going.

Agreed, where I am you can go with either Chiltern or the WCML, with the determining factor being whether Marylebone is convenient.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree with you that there is likely be some residual and/or reformed WCML inter-regional and/or inter-city service, (I cannot get into the weeds on such topics as I'm not from the "service patterns" wing of rail nerdery - I'm of the "interested in the engineering" nerds.) I ask you to accept the principal of my argument, if not specific details, that "the existing WCML services will no longer exist" as they are now for those destinations HS2 serves.

No, I won't accept that argument, because it's false.

There will continue to be an InterCity service at Euston, albeit a smaller one, and people will have the option to make journeys using it.

SOME (I might even accept most; it's slightly more than half) of the service will be shifted to HS2.

 

[Energy]

No, I won't accept that argument, because it's false.

There will continue to be an InterCity service at Euston, albeit a smaller one, and people will have the option to make journeys using it.

Indeed, the Wolves/Birmingham/Wales services will remain. Though they'll probably run at 110mph and stop more

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed, the Wolves/Birmingham/Wales services will remain. Though they'll probably run at 110mph and stop more

And one Manchester per hour.

It's not set in stone but it's been in so many official documents that I think that's what it's likely to be. 2 Brum, 1 Manc, 1 North Wales, with one of the Brums or the Manc continuing to Scotland.

 

[plugwash]

1 Manc on the WCML makes sense as without it Macclesfield and Stoke (and stockport if 2B ever happens) would lose their London services. I can't see there being more than one due to capacity constraints between Crewe and Manchester.

The problem with London to Scotland via Manchester is Piccadilly. While platforms 13/14 have the length to stop a pendolino they aren't really geared up to handle the passenger volume of a pendolino tipping out on top of the usual crowds.

 

[snowball]

1 Manc on the WCML makes sense as without it Macclesfield and Stoke (and stockport if 2B ever happens) would lose their London services.

???? Are we talking about a service that uses the southern WCML or one that uses the Handsacre link ????

 

[Bletchleyite]

???? Are we talking about a service that uses the southern WCML or one that uses the Handsacre link ????

One on the WCML. Part of the reason for it is connecting Watford, Milton Keynes and Rugby.

There is also I think a Handsacre service to Macclesfield proposed.

 

[RT4038]

No, I won't accept that argument, because it's false.

There will continue to be an InterCity service at Euston, albeit a smaller one, and people will have the option to make journeys using it.

SOME (I might even accept most; it's slightly more than half) of the service will be shifted to HS2.

These remaining services could become 'Outer Suburban' trains in the future (aka by the time HS2 opens) when the Pendolinos are replaced , possibly similar to the 350 type units currently in use on the longer distance trains on the WCML now, or perhaps better appointed?

 

[snowball]

One on the WCML. Part of the reason for it is connecting Watford, Milton Keynes and Rugby.

There is also I think a Handsacre service to Macclesfield proposed.

I too thought there was a proposed service to Macclesfield via the Handsacre link (and I think Stafford). That's why I was puzzled by @plugwash's statement that

1 Manc on the WCML makes sense as without it Macclesfield and Stoke (and stockport if 2B ever happens) would lose their London services.

 

[Energy]

One on the WCML. Part of the reason for it is connecting Watford, Milton Keynes and Rugby.

There is also I think a Handsacre service to Macclesfield proposed.

Nuneaton is 1tph on the Manchester now iirc as well.

 

[Dan G]

It's very difficult to understand what the base case completion dates are/were, and what this new delay therefore entails.

Before today, I understood the plan was:

• Phase 1 (OOC - Birmingham and Lichfield spur), including running to Manchester/Liverpool/Glasgow via the WCML, to be delivered between 2029 and 2033
• Euston and Phase 2a (Lichfield to Crewe), also to be delivered before 2033
• Phase 2b and Manchester HS2 stations to be delivered by approximately 2040, but not the Golbourne spur
• HS2 to East Midlands to be delivered after 2040 (if at all.....)

After today, perhaps the plan is something like this?

• Phase 1 (OOC - Birmingham and Lichfield spur) to be delivered between 2029 and 2033 (no change)
• Euston and Phase 2a (Lichfield to Crewe) to be delivered by approximately 2035
• Phase 2b and the Midlands leg unchanged

Indeed it is difficult. However I think "alongside" means side-by-side, at the same time, so

– Phase 1 OOC - Birmingham Curzon Street to be delivered "early 2030s" (no change)

– What's happening with the Handsacre link to the WCML is unclear (though I would think it's still part of Phase 1, despite the change in wording in the progress update)

– Phase 2a Brum to Crewe is being "replanned" and will certainly be delayed beyond 2033

– Phase 2b/Manchester, HS2 East/the Midlands leg, and Euston to be delivered after 2040, the last one as previously rumoured.

Really it means this government is committing to OOC-Curzon Street, and the next government will decide whether to proceed, if at all, with the rest of it.

Value to the economy doesn't pay it back, they want cash.
Borrowing too much is robbing future generations - they have to pay it back or refinance it.

Public investment delivers economic growth which pays for the public investment through higher tax returns. For whatever reason, governments since 2010 have turned away from this, while at the same time making private investment harder.

 

[Arkeeos]

Public investment delivers economic growth which pays for the public investment through higher tax returns. For whatever reason, governments since 2010 have turned away from this, while at the same time making private investment harder.

Also UK capital investment is lower than all comparable countries, there is absolutely room to invest more, and absolutely a need to given there has been no productivity growth in 15years.

 

[Meerkat]

Not all borrowing is created equal for the purposes of limits though

Borrowing to build an infrastructure project that supports economic growth is rather different from borrowing for handouts to the rich, for example

Still has to be paid back!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Still has to be paid back!

UK govts haven't paid back any borrowing since a couple of years in the 80's when Thatcher had a go. Its just rolled over into new debt and the pile just grows higher but with interest rates so low (even todays 4% is low by historical standards) means the country can afford to do it. However, that doesn't mean the money should be wasted and should be targeted to areas that help the country economic performance overall.
Deferring elements of HS2 is a political choice nothing more nothing less and whilst im far from its biggest fan we will find it resurrected by Labour with minimal impact on timescales.

 

[Tezza1978]

Really it means this government is committing to OOC-Curzon Street, and the next government will decide whether to proceed, if at all, with the rest of it.

As @Bald Rick says this is not the case. A lot of work at Euston and north of Curzon has already been carried out already and will continue - and by the next election the 2b act should be through Parliament.
Both political parties will go to that election with completing HS2 to Manc in their manifesto. The only bit that might be fudged IMO is whether HS2 trains then connect to the Eastern Leg at all or if as Labour says they go ahead and build it - as no work as started on this leg other than the design/route agreement/route safegarding.

 

[Dan G]

As @Bald Rick says this is not the case. A lot of work at Euston and north of Curzon has already been carried out already and will continue - and by the next election the 2b act should be through Parliament.
Both political parties will go to that election with completing HS2 to Manc in their manifesto. The only bit that might be fudged IMO is whether HS2 trains then connect to the Eastern Leg at all or if as Labour says they go ahead and build it - as no work as started on this leg other than the design/route agreement/route safegarding.

It's very clear. Euston station is being delivered "alongside" Crewe-Manchester, ie early 2040s, as per the IRP. Existing work will stop when current contracts complete.

 

[Meerkat]

UK govts haven't paid back any borrowing since a couple of years in the 80's when Thatcher had a go. Its just rolled over into new debt and the pile just grows higher but with interest rates so low (even todays 4% is low by historical standards) means the country can afford to do it. However, that doesn't mean the money should be wasted and should be targeted to areas that help the country economic performance overall.
Deferring elements of HS2 is a political choice nothing more nothing less and whilst im far from its biggest fan we will find it resurrected by Labour with minimal impact on timescales.

With interest rates CURRENTLY so low, and more borrowing is still more interest. Refinancing massive debts is normally the point at which the market decides there is too much debt and countries crash.
HS2 can't just take more and more of the public borrowing limit.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It's very clear. Euston station is being delivered "alongside" Crewe-Manchester, ie early 2040s, as per the IRP. Existing work will stop when current contracts complete.

So we're still going to be trekking to OOC?