More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[HSTEd]

How would you conjure the capacity for HS2 Birmingham services through the 2-track Shugborough tunnel and the flat junction at Colwich? AIUI any HS2 services on the WCML through the Trent Valley would have to take the paths of existing Avanti services to/from Euston, thereby worsening connectivity between the North West and Milton Keynes, Rugby and Nuneaton.

It seems unlikely that the north to west curve of the Water Orton triangular junction will be used unless both 2a and 2b are built through to Manchester.

Would you go via the Shugborough tunnel in that situation?

If there is a shortage of capacity in that area you drop the Stafford call and go via the Stone-Colwich line. That doesn't fully eliminate the Colwich junction as a constraint obviously, but it would simplify the situation.

Indeed, the post HS2 Phase One timetable for the WCML is going to be totally recast anyway.

 

[The Planner]

Would you go via the Shugborough tunnel in that situation?

If there is a shortage of capacity in that area you drop the Stafford call and go via the Stone-Colwich line. That doesn't fully eliminate the Colwich junction as a constraint obviously, but it would simplify the situation.

Indeed, the post HS2 Phase One timetable for the WCML is going to be totally recast anyway.

It will be, but Colwich is still the elephant in the room regardless. Going via Stafford eliminates a crossing move.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2023 ==

It seems unlikely that the north to west curve of the Water Orton triangular junction will be used unless both 2a and 2b are built through to Manchester.

Disagree, you would use it if 2A opens.

 

[Greybeard33]

Disagree, you would use it if 2A opens.

What services would be routed north from Curzon Street in the absence of 2B?

 

[Sonik]

But we don't KNOW that. Stories get planted in the media, but we don't know what's really going on behind the scenes.

But it wasn't planted (as in by government to test the reaction) it was leaked by disgruntled insiders.

I don't think Sunak anticipated at all the extent to which it would blow up is his face, hence the lack of clarity and evasiveness on the subject.

 

[350401]

The Times today is reporting the that Sunak will announce axing of HS2 to Manchester at the Tory conference; but will “sweeten” the betrayal by announcing new road and regional rail schemes. It doesn’t sound like NPR will be accelerated instead; it looks like that may axed too. My inner cynic suspects they will reannounce the Transpennine Route Upgrade for the umpteenth time.

“The issue is expected to dominate the conference, especially given that it is being held in Manchester, and the increasing feeling is that Sunak will be left with no choice but to spell out his plans, at least in broad strokes. The Downing Street strategy appears to be to offer sweeteners in terms of greater investment in regional rail and road links.”

Leaks, Liz and firing Suella: Sunak’s dilemmas at Tory conference

At Tory party conference the PM must counter Liz Truss, Suella Braverman — and Labour’s 21-point lead. Then come five more big moments

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[The Planner]

What services would be routed north from Curzon Street in the absence of 2B?

You would run a Manchester.

 

[HSTEd]

What services would be routed north from Curzon Street in the absence of 2B?

Well the obvious thing to do would be to extend various Crewe terminator services to Birmingham.

You could run several services to Manchester on that basis.

The 55 minute Crewe-Manchester via Stockport Northern stopper would be competitive with the classic line if it ran to Birmingham on HS2.

Even if its slower than the XC service you could probably sell a lot of tickets via the Airport too.

 

[Richardr]

The Times today is reporting the that Sunak will announce axing of HS2 to Manchester at the Tory conference; but will “sweeten” the betrayal by announcing new road and regional rail schemes. It doesn’t sound like NPR will be accelerated instead; it looks like that may axed too. My inner cynic suspects they will reannounce the Transpennine Route Upgrade for the umpteenth time.

“The issue is expected to dominate the conference, especially given that it is being held in Manchester, and the increasing feeling is that Sunak will be left with no choice but to spell out his plans, at least in broad strokes. The Downing Street strategy appears to be to offer sweeteners in terms of greater investment in regional rail and road links.”

Leaks, Liz and firing Suella: Sunak’s dilemmas at Tory conference

At Tory party conference the PM must counter Liz Truss, Suella Braverman — and Labour’s 21-point lead. Then come five more big moments

www.thetimes.co.uk

The story you link to doesn't say that it will be announced as axed this week - your quote is what they say - pressure to say something, but that may not happen and the story says nothing definitive about what would be said if anything is said.

 

[350401]

The story you link to doesn't say that it will be announced as axed this week - your quote is what they say - pressure to say something, but that may not happen and the story says nothing definitive about what would be said if anything is said.

It says they’ll outline the broad approach this week; this is also mentioned in the Mirror as well -

“ It had been claimed that he could hold off announcing the decision until the Autumn Statement in November to avoid a backlash at the conference, which is being held in the city. But the Mirror understands he is now likely to confirm the cancellation next week at the same time as he promises a huge package of transport spending”

Rishi Sunak to pledge billions for road schemes in bid to sugarcoat HS2 betrayal

The PM will unveil plans for a roads spending bonanza at Conservative Party conference as he faces accusations he's doing the dirty on the North by cancelling HS2 to Manchester

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[HSTEd]

They will announce a bunch of studies on reopening random lines in the North of England.
Plus maybe another lane on a few miles of the M62

No lines will actually be reopened. Fairly standard procedure.

 

[The Ham]

It says they’ll outline the broad approach this week; this is also mentioned in the Mirror as well -

“ It had been claimed that he could hold off announcing the decision until the Autumn Statement in November to avoid a backlash at the conference, which is being held in the city. But the Mirror understands he is now likely to confirm the cancellation next week at the same time as he promises a huge package of transport spending”

Rishi Sunak to pledge billions for road schemes in bid to sugarcoat HS2 betrayal

The PM will unveil plans for a roads spending bonanza at Conservative Party conference as he faces accusations he's doing the dirty on the North by cancelling HS2 to Manchester

www.mirror.co.uk

The problem is, by announcing lots of spending, it allows their critics to ask why is there now money for all this spending when there's not been money for:

- new hospitals
- fixing classrooms
- [any other infrastructure which you can think of which hasn't been funded]

It also allows Labour to promise to keep within Tory spending plans, whilst increasing the amount being spent from what it has been in recent years - or even to reduce it.

On HS2, it allows people to say "well clearly there's money for all that (without knowing if the business case stakes up for any of those projects) if we just delayed all those by a few years to reduce annual spend we could have all that and HS2"

Or

"We shouldn't be building new roads and the ecological and environmental damage that will cause, so if we cut those from the plan we could still afford to build HS2 AND provide all this wonderful new public transport"

Or

"Yet again the North is being sold down the river, with NPR and HS2 being cancelled so they can provide a tax break with over £1 million for those (mostly in London) who are within the top 1% of estates upon death, costing £7bn this year and doubling to £15bn in 2032 (roughly wiping out £125bn in tax receipts over that timeframe, or enough to build the Integrated Rail Plan 2 - i.e. whatever they looks like but another £100bn(ish) for rail projects over the next 10 years)"

I'm not sure there's an easy way to look good coming out of this without everyone having a LOT of ammunition to attack the PM.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2023 ==

They will announce a bunch of studies on reopening random lines in the North of England.
Plus maybe another lane on a few miles of the M62

No lines will actually be reopened. Fairly standard procedure.

Indeed, I'd rather get what I know (HS2 & NPR) rather than something which may or may not be better and doesn't have government approval.

If Leeds is promised a tram (again) I do wonder if anyone there would actually believe it (especially given it was last promised when the eastern leg was cut).

Whist many were unhappy about HS2 but teaching Liverpool, there was at least a glimmer of hope with NPR being offered. I'm not sure there's a lot that it could be offered which would match NPR (given they already have Mersey Rail).

 

[Arkeeos]

They will announce a bunch of studies on reopening random lines in the North of England.
Plus maybe another lane on a few miles of the M62

No lines will actually be reopened. Fairly standard procedure.

HS2 phase 2b + Eastern leg + NPR is what? £40bil of investment into the north. Sunak is going to announce at best £1-2bil in investment into god knows what and just hope that northerners don't complain that they got fleeced for 10s of billions in needed investment.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Can someone help with a comparison in distance terms between the full length of the Elizabeth line and the distance of the HS2 line section from Birmingham to Manchester.

Also what does the comparative costs between those two reveal in terms of original budgets?

 

[Greybeard33]

The 55 minute Crewe-Manchester via Stockport Northern stopper would be competitive with the classic line if it ran to Birmingham on HS2.

There may be a few residents of Goostrey and Chelford who would appreciate direct services to Birmingham Curzon Street, but surely you are not seriously suggesting that costly Classic Compatible trains should stop at these villages?

 

[HSTEd]

There may be a few residents of Goostrey and Chelford who would appreciate direct services to Birmingham Curzon Street, but surely you are not seriously suggesting that costly Classic Compatible trains should stop at these villages?

Classic Compatible sets are only very marginally more expensive than conventional rolling stock.....
There would be no additional crew cost and no additional infrastructure.

The marginal operating costs will be somewhat higher, but not by much.

And its probably cheaper than trying to force a separate marginally faster train through the Stockport bottleneck that will inevitably require major infrastructure work.

 

[Greybeard33]

Classic Compatible sets are only very marginally more expensive than conventional rolling stock.....
There would be no additional crew cost and no additional infrastructure.

The marginal operating costs will be somewhat higher, but not by much.

And its probably cheaper than trying to force a separate marginally faster train through.

200m CC sets only marginally more expensive than the 70m, 90mph, 30 year old Class 323s that currently work the Piccadilly - Crewe stopper? That would be a bargain!

 

[Bayum]

Had a dream last night, or maybe this morning’ where the billions the Tories are speaking about transport for Leeds was the reintroduction of the high-speed connection. Doubtful, but I’ve had many prophetic dreams come true!

 

[Energy]

Had a dream last night, or maybe this morning’ where the billions the Tories are speaking about transport for Leeds was the reintroduction of the high-speed connection. Doubtful, but I’ve had many prophetic dreams come true!

The DfT launched a study a couple of months ago on getting high-speed trains into Leeds, suggesting that the Leeds ambition wasn't gone but it needed to be cheaper than 2b. Changing it to HS2 to Crewe and NPR from Crewe to Leeds via Manchester might appease the PMs desire to shorten HS2 and the supposed desire to improve east-west north connections (Rishi was meant to be a big fan of NPR). The ones who loose out are Sheffield.

I would appreciate the irony if trying to cancel HS2 ends up in it getting re extended.

 

[HSTEd]

200m CC sets only marginally more expensive than the 70m, 90mph, 30 year old Class 323s that currently work the Piccadilly - Crewe stopper? That would be a bargain!

Well CC sets don't actually have to be 200m if we don't want.

But even if they are, the Class 323s are rapidly approaching end of life and will have to be replaced.

The major cost in operating a railway is not the cost of buying rolling stock, nor the cost of marginal cost of maintenance on said rolling stock

 

[fishwomp]

They will announce a bunch of studies on reopening random lines in the North of England.
...
No lines will actually be reopened. Fairly standard procedure.

Whatever he can find on the internet - Skipton-Colne and the Woodhead!

 

[The Ham]

Well CC sets don't actually have to be 200m if we don't want.

But even if they are, the Class 323s are rapidly approaching end of life and will have to be replaced.

The major cost in operating a railway is not the cost of buying rolling stock, nor the cost of marginal cost of maintenance on said rolling stock

Historical the rule of thumb was 1/3 rolling stock costs 1/3 staff costs and 1/3 other costs (including NR charges and fuel costs), obviously they change depending on the TOC and their lease agreements, number of staff, etc.

 

[matacaster]

Whatever he can find on the internet - Skipton-Colne and the Woodhead!

Interesting that on the one hand people say we need to have lots of loops on the south transpennine to allow faster transit times between Sheffield and Manchester. On the other hand the woodhead route was closed mainly because it didn't offer any intermediate stations which served a big population, peniston possibly the biggest. So city to city via woodhead, slower journeys with stops via south transpennine. Precisely what HS2 is supposed to do for the wcml.

 

[fishwomp]

Interesting that on the one hand people say we need to have lots of loops on the south transpennine to allow faster transit times between Sheffield and Manchester. On the other hand the woodhead route was closed mainly because it didn't offer any intermediate stations which served a big population, peniston possibly the biggest. So city to city via woodhead, slower journeys with stops via south transpennine. Precisely what HS2 is supposed to do for the wcml.

And sadly an example of a flagship project that didn't last long: opening of the new tunnel in 1953, closure 28 years later in 1981.

 

[matacaster]

And sadly an example of a flagship project that didn't last long: opening of the new tunnel in 1953, closure 28 years later in 1981.

Yes, lost coal traffic. However woodhead route likely still faster city to city if it existed now

 

[The Planner]

Yes, lost coal traffic. However woodhead route likely still faster city to city if it existed now

Doubt there would be a lot in it. Sheffield Manchester is around 54/55 minutes now. Woodhead was slightly longer according to this thread.

Timetable for last passenger service via Woodhead?

:?: Anyone able to provide a scan of the timetable for Manchester -> Sheffield Victoria services, before regular passenger services via Woodhead were withdrawn (in late 1969/early 1970 if I correctly recall?)

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The thread hypothetically asks "how shall we proceed", but in the real world, it is not "we" who are the decision-makers, but because we are on a "speculative forum thread", fertile imaginations can run riot with no need whatsoever to have regard for anything remotely approaching "life in the real world".

 

[Tezza1978]

The problem is, by announcing lots of spending, it allows their critics to ask why is there now money for all this spending when there's not been money for:

- new hospitals
- fixing classrooms
- [any other infrastructure which you can think of which hasn't been funded]

It also allows Labour to promise to keep within Tory spending plans, whilst increasing the amount being spent from what it has been in recent years - or even to reduce it.

On HS2, it allows people to say "well clearly there's money for all that (without knowing if the business case stakes up for any of those projects) if we just delayed all those by a few years to reduce annual spend we could have all that and HS2"

Or

"We shouldn't be building new roads and the ecological and environmental damage that will cause, so if we cut those from the plan we could still afford to build HS2 AND provide all this wonderful new public transport"

Or

"Yet again the North is being sold down the river, with NPR and HS2 being cancelled so they can provide a tax break with over £1 million for those (mostly in London) who are within the top 1% of estates upon death, costing £7bn this year and doubling to £15bn in 2032 (roughly wiping out £125bn in tax receipts over that timeframe, or enough to build the Integrated Rail Plan 2 - i.e. whatever they looks like but another £100bn(ish) for rail projects over the next 10 years)"

I'm not sure there's an easy way to look good coming out of this without everyone having a LOT of ammunition to attack the PM.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Sep 2023 ==



Indeed, I'd rather get what I know (HS2 & NPR) rather than something which may or may not be better and doesn't have government approval.

If Leeds is promised a tram (again) I do wonder if anyone there would actually believe it (especially given it was last promised when the eastern leg was cut).

Whist many were unhappy about HS2 but teaching Liverpool, there was at least a glimmer of hope with NPR being offered. I'm not sure there's a lot that it could be offered which would match NPR (given they already have Mersey Rail).

Really good post. Sunak looked incredibly shifty today. I'm not even sure he knows what to do on this now given the backlash has been sogreat. If he thinks a "plan" like you have described will work politically he is in for a massive, massive shock - given the ammunition and room for manoeuvre he will give Labour. Plus there is talk of Burnham taking legal action. Whatever he does the route of 2A and 2B will be safeguarded anyway, so Labour will just pick up and carry on after the election

 

[Greybeard33]

Interesting that on the one hand people say we need to have lots of loops on the south transpennine to allow faster transit times between Sheffield and Manchester. On the other hand the woodhead route was closed mainly because it didn't offer any intermediate stations which served a big population, peniston possibly the biggest. So city to city via woodhead, slower journeys with stops via south transpennine. Precisely what HS2 is supposed to do for the wcml.

The analogy between HS2 and the ex-Great Central network can be taken further than just the Woodhead line. The GCML from Sheffield Victoria to London Marylebone was straighter and potentially faster than the twisty MML from Sheffield Midland to St Pancras. But it was the MML that survived the Beeching-era cuts, because of its better connectivity.

 

[Mikey C]

As the majority of expenditure on the Manchester section of HS2 won't happen for a few years, it's not as if the money can be released to spend or cut taxes now anyway.

 

[zwk500]

As the majority of expenditure on the Manchester section of HS2 won't happen for a few years, it's not as if the money can be released to spend or cut taxes now anyway.

It couldn't have been anyway, because it would all have been borrowed.