Network Rail warns it may not be able to maintain the coastal route to Dover indefinitely.

[zwk500]

Language like "devastated" and "abandoned" might be "emotive", however I stand by that language because whether you pike it or not, wanton destruction of public services is an emotive issue (I refer to all elections past, present and future).

But it's not 'simply stating it as it is'. It's an interpretation of the impacts. It's also factually incorrect because only 2 towns have lost all rail services, and those that have had closures now see more regular trains to London (by far the biggest and most beneficial market) than some lines that remained open in full (e.g. Seaford).

I'm afraid that history has left us with a situation in which the railway network in Sussex is motheaten and not fit for purpose.

The rail network in East Sussex isn't perfect but it's an awful lot better than 'not fit for purpose'. I speak as somebody who grew up and lived in the area with regular need to travel to Lewes, Uckfield, Seaford, Eastbourne, Hailsham, Brighton and London.

 

[yorksrob]

But it's not 'simply stating it as it is'. It's an interpretation of the impacts. It's also factually incorrect because only 2 towns have lost all rail services, and those that have had closures now see more regular trains to London (by far the biggest and most beneficial market) than some lines that remained open in full (e.g. Seaford).

The rail network in East Sussex isn't perfect but it's an awful lot better than 'not fit for purpose'. I speak as somebody who grew up and lived in the area with regular need to travel to Lewes, Uckfield, Seaford, Eastbourne, Hailsham, Brighton and London.

I don't think that one needs to undertake a multi-million pound study to conclude that having a railway station in your town is better than having to go to one several miles away, or that it's better to be able to travel to the next large settlement in the opposite direction, rather than just heading towards London.

One only has to look at the Coastway services to see that non-London travel can be very popular.

The rail network in East Sussex is far less up to the job than the network in Kent.

 

[bramling]

I don't think that you can say that the network in Kent hasn't served it as well. It's probably fair to say that Kent is structurally less affluent than most of East Sussex

I guess we’ll never really know the answer. It may well be the case that Kent (especially east Kent) is less well-off simply because of distance to London, or more specifically time. There is also some element of coastal and ex-mining deprivation. But otherwise the landscape and towns/villages are very similar to Sussex and Surrey, yet as a whole Kent is very much more mixed in terms of prosperity.

and I would expect that it would now be considerably worse off without its comprehensive rail network.

You may well be right.

I think it's also fair to say that large parts of East Sussex are very much a motorists county. If you don't have a car and live away from the coast and main line, you're pretty much stumped.

You say that, but again compared to Kent the roads in Sussex generally aren’t great. The only good trunk routes are the A23 and A27, and both of these have their moments. For local journeys the road network isn’t great at all. Yet this doesn’t seem to have held the area back.

By contrast Kent has two decent motorways, and you can travel by motorway or dual-carriageways all the way to Thanet, Folkestone and Dover, as well as the less outlying places like Medway, Maidstone, Ashford, Tonbridge etc.

I guess the point which seems to be showing is that the lack of really quick commuter journeys to/from London is an issue for Kent. Whether HS1 has addressed that I’d say is still unclear, but the impression I got it that it hasn’t entirely. Perhaps because journeys like the Medway-HS1 are still quite torturous compared to the stereotypical Haywards Heath to Victoria commute.

Worth also remembering that for all Kent’s comprehensive rail network, there are a lot of fairly empty trains running around Kent through much of the day.

Having said all that, I do think that maintaining a decent rail like between Dover and Folkestone is something that should be considered important.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

The rail network in East Sussex is far less up to the job than the network in Kent.

But the cost of bringing it up to some notional standard of being "up to the job" is far too high for such a scheme to be viable. The reality here, as so often, is that once such (semi) rural routes have closed the cost of re-opening them cannot be justified. There may well be some demand for improved public transport in the region but integrated bus links would be much easier to justify than (re)building railway lines. It's very unfortunate that the general political climate is so unsupportive of such an approach. So we carry on failing to provide useful public transport to such areas.

 

[bramling]

But the cost of bringing it up to some notional standard of being "up to the job" is far too high for such a scheme to be viable. The reality here, as so often, is that once such (semi) rural routes have closed the cost of re-opening them cannot be justified. There may well be some demand for improved public transport in the region but integrated bus links would be much easier to justify than (re)building railway lines. It's very unfortunate that the general political climate is so unsupportive of such an approach. So we carry on failing to provide useful public transport to such areas.

There probably does need to be a realisation that if increasing amounts of housing are going to be built in certain areas, relying on road transport alone is eventually going to prove unworkable.

I’d imagine Sussex isn’t massively different to areas like Hertfordshire in that local journeys by road can be purgatory. At some point it may well become the case that some of these local rail routes may well *have* to be revived, even if the cost is enormous.

From my local perspective links like St Albans to Hatfield, Welwyn to Hertford, Welwyn to Dunstable, Hitchin to Bedford, Bedford to Northampton, Huntingdon to Cambridge etc. In the case of Sussex then Shoreham to Guildford, Lewes to Uckfield, East Grinstead to Tunbridge Wells would seem the obvious ones. Hailsham is more awkward as I’m not sure the old route is particularly well aligned for modern requirements.

But in terms of Kent I struggle to think of any potential re-openings that would be that useful.

 

[yorksrob]

I guess we’ll never really know the answer. It may well be the case that Kent (especially east Kent) is less well-off simply because of distance to London, or more specifically time. There is also some element of coastal and ex-mining deprivation. But otherwise the landscape and towns/villages are very similar to Sussex and Surrey, yet as a whole Kent is very much more mixed in terms of prosperity.




You may well be right.




You say that, but again compared to Kent the roads in Sussex generally aren’t great. The only good trunk routes are the A23 and A27, and both of these have their moments. For local journeys the road network isn’t great at all. Yet this doesn’t seem to have held the area back.

By contrast Kent has two decent motorways, and you can travel by motorway or dual-carriageways all the way to Thanet, Folkestone and Dover, as well as the less outlying places like Medway, Maidstone, Ashford, Tonbridge etc.

I guess the point which seems to be showing is that the lack of really quick commuter journeys to/from London is an issue for Kent. Whether HS1 has addressed that I’d say is still unclear, but the impression I got it that it hasn’t entirely. Perhaps because journeys like the Medway-HS1 are still quite torturous compared to the stereotypical Haywards Heath to Victoria commute.

Worth also remembering that for all Kent’s comprehensive rail network, there are a lot of fairly empty trains running around Kent through much of the day.

Having said all that, I do think that maintaining a decent rail like between Dover and Folkestone is something that should be considered important.

It's certainly true that wealth distribution in Kent has always been a bit patchy - I say that having lived in Ashford which I would describe as one of the more middling areas.

Places like Deal and Sandwich are quite far out as a commute, but are quite well to do.

Haywards Heath may be nice and direct to London but the East Sussex coast is a bit of a roundabout way to get to London.

But the cost of bringing it up to some notional standard of being "up to the job" is far too high for such a scheme to be viable. The reality here, as so often, is that once such (semi) rural routes have closed the cost of re-opening them cannot be justified. There may well be some demand for improved public transport in the region but integrated bus links would be much easier to justify than (re)building railway lines. It's very unfortunate that the general political climate is so unsupportive of such an approach. So we carry on failing to provide useful public transport to such areas.

Sadly I don't think there'll be an opportunity to get the East Sussex network back to anything like Kent. That said, just reinstating Tunbridge Wells - Lewes would offer a step change in connectivity for the Wealden hinterland.

 

[AlastairFraser]

There are potentially three issues with this line:

• a major cliff fall from above, perhaps when the cliff becomes unstable after a considerable amount of rain - as we had this winter
• the water is running from the cliff under the railway, which as a result become unstable - this winter the access raod suffered from this
• the concrete platform that protects to reduce the wave erosion below the line continues to collapse

It could of course be a combination of all three, any one of which could be catastrophic failure and perhaps unlike Dawlish this combination and the length of the line is an issue?

The section between East Folkestone and Abbot’s Cliff is the most vulnerable - with later sections either in tunnel, protected by Samphire Hoe, or recently rebuilt (East of Shakespeare Cliff.) This section is about two miles I reckon. A solution in the cliff might be best long term?

The Port of Dover still remain strategic important for rail transport and future opportunites such as up to 500,000 cruise passngers per year.

Well, a tram along the old A20 from Folkestone Central to a Dover town centre loop through Capel-le-Ferne is perhaps another possibility. You'd probably still be able to use the railway as far as the sidings east of the Dover Rd overbridge in Folkestone, then a 800m tunnel to reach the top of the hill on New Dover Rd by the valiant sailor pub.

 

[Nottingham59]

Well, a tram along the old A20 from Folkestone Central to a Dover town centre loop through Capel-le-Ferne is perhaps another possibility. You'd probably still be able to use the railway as far as the sidings east of the Dover Rd overbridge in Folkestone, then a 800m tunnel to reach the top of the hill on New Dover Rd by the valiant sailor pub.

If a tram would work, then we should be working on the assumption that an Autonomous Bus will become feasible in the same timeframe. After all, we are now in the second quarter of the twenty-first century.

 

[zwk500]

Well, a tram along the old A20 from Folkestone Central to a Dover town centre loop through Capel-le-Ferne is perhaps another possibility. You'd probably still be able to use the railway as far as the sidings east of the Dover Rd overbridge in Folkestone, then a 800m tunnel to reach the top of the hill on New Dover Rd by the valiant sailor pub.

From the tunnel to the Valiant Sailor is rather a large Gradient, through very soft chalk!
I also don't see how the tram gets from Folkestone Central to Dover Hill unless each track is using a different route through the town's streets.

If a tram would work, then we should be working on the assumption that an Autonomous Bus will become feasible in the same timeframe. After all, we are now in the second quarter of the twenty-first century.

I suspect liability reasons will mean an autonomous bus would be mainly for BRT-type schemes not a general local bus service.

FWIW I think the idea of a Dover-Folkestone-Hythe tram is an interesting one, but perhaps for a separate speculative thread.

 

[yorksrob]

View attachment 161217

FWIW I think the idea of a Dover-Folkestone-Hythe tram is an interesting one, but perhaps for a separate speculative thread.

Would you consider extending it through Hayne wood tunnel to connect to the main line at Sandling ?!

 

[zwk500]

Would you consider extending it through Hayne wood tunnel to connect to the main line at Sandling ?!

Almost certainly not, because then it wouldn't serve the actual town of Hythe.

 

[AlastairFraser]

If a tram would work, then we should be working on the assumption that an Autonomous Bus will become feasible in the same timeframe. After all, we are now in the second quarter of the twenty-first century.

Autonomous bus just isn't attractive to the same degree as trams are - the vehicle ride quality is lesser, lack of driver for emergencies, and the inability to deal with the many degraded driving conditions that the countries where autonomous vehicles are more successful (e.g. the US/China) generally don't have to the same extent,as part of a main road network.

From the tunnel to the Valiant Sailor is rather a large Gradient, through very soft chalk!
I also don't see how the tram gets from Folkestone Central to Dover Hill unless each track is using a different route through the town's streets.

Indeed it is a large gradient to ascend/descend, but I specifically chose trams because they are suited to climbing very steep gradients.

The tram would use the existing railway alignment from Folkestone Central to Dover Hill (the railway would then terminate there).

 

[Meerkat]

Who is going to use this tram?
IIRC the Warren has all sorts of environmental protection statuses, so big scale engineering is presumably out (ie dig the high side out and dump it on the sea side).

 

[AlastairFraser]

Who is going to use this tram?
IIRC the Warren has all sorts of environmental protection statuses, so big scale engineering is presumably out (ie dig the high side out and dump it on the sea side).

Those travelling between Folkestone/further afield/Capel-le-Ferne and Dover for various reasons.

Yes, this proposal largely dodges Folkestone Warren by use of the tunnel.

 

[zwk500]

Yes, this proposal largely dodges Folkestone Warren by use of the tunnel.

Isn't a warren normally below ground? If so, tunnelling would seem to not really resolve the problem.

Trams can go up steep grades (believe Sheffield has 12% at points) but it's still a potential problem, particularly coming down the other way!

 

[Meerkat]

Those travelling between Folkestone/further afield/Capel-le-Ferne and Dover for various reasons.

Yes, this proposal largely dodges Folkestone Warren by use of the tunnel.

I really don’t believe there are ever going to enough of those to justify a tram over a bus.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Isn't a warren normally below ground? If so, tunnelling would seem to not really resolve the problem.

Trams can go up steep grades (believe Sheffield has 12% at points) but it's still a potential problem, particularly coming down the other way!

Yes, the warren is below ground, but the tunnel would only skirt the very edge of it. I believe most of the actual warren is significantly to the south of my proposed tunnel.

I really don’t believe there are ever going to enough of those to justify a tram over a bus.

What are the ticket sales like Folkestone stations to Dover on the railway? That would give us a reliable indication. You also need to account for railway passengers from other places along the South Coast who are routed this way via through ticketing.

 

[Nottingham59]

What are the ticket sales like Folkestone stations to Dover on the railway? That would give us a reliable indication. You also need to account for railway passengers from other places along the South Coast who are routed this way via through ticketing.

According to @RailAleFan 's excellent website, there are 65 passengers a day each way between Dover Priory and the two stations at Folkestone.

Dover to Ashford, Stratford and St Pancras together amount to 530/2 = 265 each way. I assume most of these will go via Folkestone too.Other station pairs are not included in those figures.

Labs - Flow Statistics - Dover Priory

 

[HSTEd]

Dover to Ashford, Stratford and St Pancras together amount to 530/2 = 265 each way. I assume most of these will go via Folkestone too.Other station pairs are not included in those figures.

Labs - Flow Statistics - Dover Priory

However, a simple curve at Canterbury would abstract the Dover Ashford, Stratford and St Pancras flow for a small fraction of the cost of some sort of tram system.

 

[duncombec]

However, a simple curve at Canterbury would abstract the Dover Ashford, Stratford and St Pancras flow for a small fraction of the cost of some sort of tram system.

Where are we proposing this "simple curve" at Canterbury? The most logical place, north-west of Canterbury East station, would put it on Hambrook Marshes nature reserve. (emphasis on 'marsh', if not 'nature reserve').

Other places with more space have the added issue of then needing to cross the A28, or being less than natural to fit in the available space between the A2 and the A28.

 

[HSTEd]

Where are we proposing this "simple curve" at Canterbury? The most logical place, north-west of Canterbury East station, would put it on Hambrook Marshes nature reserve. (emphasis on 'marsh', if not 'nature reserve').

Other places with more space have the added issue of then needing to cross the A28, or being less than natural to fit in the available space between the A2 and the A28.

Building a few hundred metres of track in a marsh is still going to be much cheaper than trying to force a new alignment through between Folkestone and Dover, even for a tram.

 

[AndrewE]

Building a few hundred metres of track in a marsh is still going to be much cheaper than trying to force a new alignment through between Folkestone and Dover, even for a tram.

... if such a thing is even needed.

 

[sbf kent]

However, a simple curve at Canterbury would abstract the Dover Ashford, Stratford and St Pancras flow for a small fraction of the cost of some sort of tram system.

I suspect a dual system for Dover might be needed, first via a new chord and Canterbury, perhaps calling at Stratford, Ebbsfleet, Ashford International, Aylesham (a rapidly growing suburb to Canterbury) and Dover Priory. The second would be a non-stop bus from a new bus terminal - Dover Gateway, in the shortly to be infilled Granville Docks) to Folkestone East, via the A20. The issues with the latter is that Operation TAP, partially closure of the A20 for port congestion is in place 100's of days a year, so the bus may be blocked. This could be resolved by setting up a new bus only route along the alignment of the Old Folkestone Road from Dover to Capel Le Ferne to Folkestone East, the first part from Dover currently a cycle route. the new route taking a bus only passenger route to a new Folkestone East in 15 minutes from Dover - max.

Contrary to previous post the Channel Tunnel is not at capacity :

As Getlink chief corporate and public affairs officer John Keefe explained, while the tunnel is not likely to reach capacity anytime soon, there’s still early proposals floating around of building a new tunnel.

So the idea of a short tunnel from Aycliffe to Dover Gateway (Granville Dock) can surely not be ruled out? Giving Dover perhaps a 50 to 55 minute journey time to St Pancras?

 

[MarkyT]

Where are we proposing this "simple curve" at Canterbury? The most logical place, north-west of Canterbury East station, would put it on Hambrook Marshes nature reserve. (emphasis on 'marsh', if not 'nature reserve').

Other places with more space have the added issue of then needing to cross the A28, or being less than natural to fit in the available space between the A2 and the A28.

Building a few hundred metres of track in a marsh is still going to be much cheaper than trying to force a new alignment through between Folkestone and Dover, even for a tram.

BR had a design for the Canterbury connection decades ago, It was looked at periodically whenever there was a scare about the cliffs; this is not a new issue. Approaching from Ashford, the double track connection would diverge left after the A2 overbridge and climb the embankment up to the Canterbury East line before the lines' intersection bridge. ~500m new double track, two new double junctions. Probably not very fast, about 40mph due to geometry. A faster connection might be possible over the marsh. That would be longer and over more difficult terrain so would be more expensive. There was never a connection like this in the past, but there was once a chord the other way allowing a Faversham train to get to Canterbury West.

 

[brad465]

Sorry to bring politics into this, but Ashford, Folkestone & Hythe and Dover & Deal have all changed hands to Labour in this election, which may up the pressure on addressing issues with this rail link.

 

[yorksrob]

Sorry to bring politics into this, but Ashford, Folkestone & Hythe and Dover & Deal have all changed hands to Labour in this election, which may up the pressure on addressing issues with this rail link.

I would certainly hope that the area's new found willingness to switch allegiance will focus minds on the issue !

 

[The Planner]

Sorry to bring politics into this, but Ashford, Folkestone & Hythe and Dover & Deal have all changed hands to Labour in this election, which may up the pressure on addressing issues with this rail link.

Doubt it.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Sorry to bring politics into this, but Ashford, Folkestone & Hythe and Dover & Deal have all changed hands to Labour in this election, which may up the pressure on addressing issues with this rail link.

Was the future of the Dover-Folkestone line a significant local issue in the recent campaign? (I am having difficulty in believing that it was.)

 

[yorksrob]

Was the future of the Dover-Folkestone line a significant local issue in the recent campaign? (I am having difficulty in believing that it was.)

Well, it wasn't raised as an issue so probably not.

If it were to become an official closure proposal, however........

 

[Meerkat]

With a massive majority it won’t matter enough to make a difference.