Yes, as it stands non-essential retail cannot offer click & collect (but can still offer delivery). Essential retail, as well as takeaways and food delivery, must close at 20:00.
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New 4-tier system for England
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My original post was a bit "tongue in cheek". I've a 250-mile house move coming up in the near future (no date set yet) so that will be "interesting".
How can you realistically get any tougher on cafes?, in the existing Tiers 3 & 4 they can only offer takeaway or delivery anyway.
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Skimpot flyer
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New Tory mantra:
“Tough on cake. Tough on the causes of cake” ?
Obvious no? Stop takeaway / delivery...not saying they should but your question was how
Announcements are expected tomorrow... Big question for me is how much does Tier 4 expand. Will it be national or will some areas escape?
Other thing is Schools - could that be the thing that differentiates tier 5?
I do think something should be done..it is heartbreaking to listen / read about what NHS staff are going through
Jamiescott1
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I dont think there'll be tougher restrictions on excercise, there wasn't in the first lockdown (just a comment from gove on tv saying 30 minutes).
I usually run 70km and cycle about 90km a week - what good is a limit on excercise for me.
I usually run 70km and cycle about 90km a week - what good is a limit on excercise for me.
Bantamzen
Established Member
I don't disagree about the NHS staff, however 2020 is not an exception for them. As far back as the early 1990s (and before) when I was engaged to a student nurse it was obvious they regularly had bad times of it. She often had to pull 12-16 hour shifts, the hospital was almost always overcrowded, some doctors literally wouldn't leave the site for 48 hours, grabbing sleep when they could. The difference between then and now is that nobody banged pots for them in the 1990s.
philosopher
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They could shut essential shops and takeaways at eight as they have done in Northern Ireland this week. Personally to me such a move seems counterproductive as it would just make supermarkets more crowded in the hours they are open.
Skimpot flyer
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How could/would any proposed time limit on exercise be enforceable? It deserves to be completely disregarded by anyone exercising their brain for a few seconds...
Class 33
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Thankfully it doesn't look like there will be this media speculated Tier 5 being announced tomorrow. Nor the entire country being put into Tier 4 or a full national lockdown(both the same really). But is looking like more areas will be upgraded to Tier 3 and Tier 4.
SAGE and government scientists and whoever though are throwing their toys out of their prams AGAIN by demanding the entire country goes back into a full national lockdown! I wish those lot would just shut up. We can't keep having full national lockdowns for crying out loud! Hopefully Johnson doesn't go and give into them again like he did back in October.
Whatever happens, it's going to get worst during January. The next month is going to be pretty dire. But from early February when surely by then the effects of all these vaccinations should be sending the hospitalisations/numbers in hospitals/deaths stats southwards, then things are going to start getting better. The Tiered system could even be abolished if enough MP's vote against it on 27th January. If it does continue though, then we should start see all areas downgraded to lower Tiers pretty fast over the proceeding several weeks. Easter time should see life back to near enough normal at least.
SAGE and government scientists and whoever though are throwing their toys out of their prams AGAIN by demanding the entire country goes back into a full national lockdown! I wish those lot would just shut up. We can't keep having full national lockdowns for crying out loud! Hopefully Johnson doesn't go and give into them again like he did back in October.
Whatever happens, it's going to get worst during January. The next month is going to be pretty dire. But from early February when surely by then the effects of all these vaccinations should be sending the hospitalisations/numbers in hospitals/deaths stats southwards, then things are going to start getting better. The Tiered system could even be abolished if enough MP's vote against it on 27th January. If it does continue though, then we should start see all areas downgraded to lower Tiers pretty fast over the proceeding several weeks. Easter time should see life back to near enough normal at least.
brad465
Established Member
I don't like to bring this subject into Covid but unfortunately as they're both overseen by Johnson and influences his reputation it matters: now a Brexit deal has been sorted out, his party, including the increasingly influential new CRG will be piling a lot of pressure on him not to have too harsh restrictions, so I don't see tough restrictions lasting too long for the sake of Johnson's career/reputation in his party. That said I think the tier system will be renewed at the end of January, subject to whether or not a national lockdown is (hopefully not) going on, as I don't see drastic improvements in the picture as that vote is only a month away. However I do think a peak in infections will occur before that vote, not just because of vaccinations but because of increasing immunity from all these infections in this wave alone on top.
Kite159
Veteran Member
Closed outright with not even takeaway allowed, delivery only
My prediction is that the New Forest and Isle of Wight will be moved up to tier 4, while Dorset, BCP, Wiltshire and BANES are moved to tier 3. I know Dorset doesn’t have particularly high case rates but it would be absurd having a ceremonial county with a large urban area in tier 2 while a neighbouring national park is put into tier 4, even when Wiltshire is the only tier 2 county to border a tier 4 area at the time of writing. Also, where is the justification for leaving BANES in tier 2 when the rest of Somerset gets put into tier 3?
Further north, I reckon that North Yorkshire and Cumbria will move up to tier 3 while some local authorities around Manchester and Leeds are put into tier 4.
Further north, I reckon that North Yorkshire and Cumbria will move up to tier 3 while some local authorities around Manchester and Leeds are put into tier 4.
So far we have after 20 days given the first shot of vaccination to 600,000 people that's 30,000 a day.
It's been speculated that we will start to see a reduction of cases after 15,000,000 people have been vaccinated.
At the current rate for 1 shot that will be on 23 Apr 2022 or at the current rate for 2 shots 5 September 2023. Ive no doubt that the rate of vaccination will increase overtime but just pointing out the maths.
Nicholas Lewis
On Moderation
The CRG got a head of steam at the time as the data was still looking reasonable and the tier restrictions looked unnecessary. However, with not only cases spiralling, despite tier 4, but more importantly a significant deterioration in the patients being admitted daily currently the regulations will get extended as hospitals will be overrun shortly. The real issue here is patients admitted for covid treatment have a 10-14 days in hospital and with cases going up everyday more beds become occupied than are being released.
The govt as usual hoist by there own petard over education but if they are serious about it (and i am) then they need to ask the vulnerable to shield as per lockdown 1 as we need to bare down on the main source of hospitalisations so the rest of the economy can at least partially function rather than a complete suspension of activity and all the economic and mental well being damage that is doing.
Given Covid disproportionately affects the fat, then if they'd done absolutely nothing but ban cake there'd probably have been less deaths
Bertie the bus
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Cases shouldn't matter that much as long as they don't get too high. It's deaths and hospitalisations that really count and people over 85 have accounted for 22% of hospitalisations in England, when they only make up about 2-3% of the population. Therefore, even at a fairly modest rate of vaccination hospital admissions should start to drop in the near future when the over 80s have had their turn.
brad465
Established Member
Yes I have the belief that the vulnerable should be asked to shield voluntarily (I say that because not everyone who is elderly/vulnerable likes being locked down) while the vaccines are rolled out to them, with moderate restrictions for the rest. Then once all the most vulnerable (say over 65s, care/health works) and some younger at risk people have had it, complete normality for everyone including vulnerable groups (of course I don't see that or anything similar happening).
That is of course the most sensible and rational option but unfortunately common sense and rationality left the room weeks ago.
Bantamzen
Established Member
I'll tell you what if West Yorkshire goes to tier 4 there will be a lot of anger. Rates are way below the national average having been amongst the highest in the country a couple of months ago. So moving from T3 to T4 would be literally a kick in the nevers.
To play Devils advocate
As you say the hope is that once we vaccinate a good chunk of those who are most at risk of serious illness then the numbers should start to get better - and the impact might be pretty quick providing we can get distribution ramped up.
With that in mind I honestly don't see why you wouldn't be a bit stronger now to get as many people over the line as we possibly can. It would be completely different if we didn't have a viable solution but thanks to the work of the scientists we do. Things should be reasonably time limited
For what its worth latest news seems to be most of England will go to T4 from tonight.
There are several (published) criteria including numbers of cases but also how busy hospitals are, numbers of deaths and their trends. Have you looked at these other criteria before coming to your judgement?
Bantamzen
Established Member
Yep, hospitalisations down 20% & deaths down 35% in the last week in Bradford.
DustyBin
Established Member
One of the concerns is that we don’t have a definite time frame to reach that point. Is it February, April, next summer, beyond.... Nobody knows! Meanwhile people and businesses are running out of money which inevitably leads to considerable suffering for those affected. I can’t see how the economic damage can be easily reversed either.
Another concern (that I have anyway) is that these vaccines turn out not to be the magic bullet we hoped they would be. There are already ‘experts’ warning us to expect restrictions long after the vaccines have been rolled out. It’s also now clear that we will see regular mutations of the virus (it’s a coronavirus after all) so at some point a new strain may require a new vaccine. I expect the existing vaccines can be altered relatively easily to overcome this, but what do we do in the meantime? Lockdown for a couple of months? There’s a danger we enter a never ending cycle here.... Sorry to sound negative/alarmist but these are the things not being widely discussed so it’s left to the likes of us to think about them!
I think the idea of on-off lockdowns for the next few years each time there is a new mutation of the virus is going to be a politically very difficult to achieve.
A never ending cycle of lockdowns, lifting of restrictions, more lockdowns is going to cause untold damage to the economy and peoples mental health, and there will come a point when the cure becomes worse than the disease.
I would expect that, from next autumn onwards, COVID-19 is managed in the same way as seasonal flu, in that people are vaccinated, and there is general advice about self isolating if you feel unwell. Rapid testing should become widely available, to the extent that those who are most at risk are tested on a regular basis, regardless of whether they have symptoms. You may see more emphasis on the old slogan "...coughs and sneezes spread diseases...", with advice about covering your face with your hands if you cough or sneeze, and carrying portable bottles of hand sanitiser to keep your hands clean when out and about.
Another thing that would be fairly easy to implement is to make far more people eligible for the free flu jab. This would reduce the pressure on the NHS next winter, and enable them to cope better with any COVID-19 cases.
Given that we're so near to a vaccine roll out, and we're on the verge of the most vulnerable being vaccinated over the next couple of months, I think it's a lot more reasonable to ask them - i.e. those on the list who were asked during the first lockdown, to shield for a short amount of time whilst that happens. Unfortunately, we seem to be going into the Government's/SAGE's favourite knee-jerk reaction of locking everthing down as much as they can get away with.
One issue is that the warehouses and delivery systems designed to support those vulnerable people during the first lockdown have probably been dismantled. The rest of us, can probably persist with tier three for a bit longer, so long as support/rent relief etc is provided to those businesses that have been closed.
One issue is that the warehouses and delivery systems designed to support those vulnerable people during the first lockdown have probably been dismantled. The rest of us, can probably persist with tier three for a bit longer, so long as support/rent relief etc is provided to those businesses that have been closed.
We should not be trying to put timelines on things - We don't have the ability to "control" nature or know how circumstances might change "x" number of weeks / months down the line (heck one of my big criticisms of Governments have been making promises they were always going to break and not managing expectations correctly)
All we can do it make the best decisions at any point in time based on the current situation - Right now that would seem to suggest that there is hope on the horizon but we may need to accept a bit of pain to get there. If we get a few weeks down the line and people who had the vaccine are still getting ill or it mutates again and "escapes" the vaccine then we will need to reassess but we can only play the ball we are currently being bowled.
The economic situation is clearly terrible and there is no easy way round that - I would argue that the economic and health impacts run hand in hand. The economy really isn't going to recover until we deal with the health emergency as you need consumer confidence.
Government do not want restrictions to continue for a minute longer than they are required - The thought they are enjoying this is ludicrous.
Vaccines aren't the magic bullet for a lot of things, the dreaded flu being the main one.
That being the case, we would need to find ways of managing the inevitable surges in cases that occur, rather than going into a cycle of unaffordable lockdowns. I would suggest the following:
- Increasing hospital bed capacity per head of population to something nearer the European average (ideally greater). Over the past decades, people spend less in hospital during routine operations than previously. This is "efficient" in day to day terms, but it doesn't leave a lot of spare capacity to flex when you need those beds to keep people away from care homes for example. Fundamentally, it seems that the condition is treatable for a lot of people, but any surge in cases will create a bulge in hospitalisations which will have a long tail off. we would need to build in that capacity in terms of beds and staffing.
- A lot more regular testing/vaccinating and vigilance to spot more strains emerging, as well as a way to screen people coming in at the border so that new strains aren't inadvertantly introduced from elsewhere (e.g. the strain from South Africa). This will be particularly important during the time lag between the UK vaccination programme, and the rest of the world catching up.
German analysis in late summer showed that shielding doesn't actually work that well as it gets in from helpers in the short-medium term (just like it gets into carehomes despite precautions) it just slows the spread, many are already mostly shielding and cutting their interactions so it may not yield big changes. With the more transmissible new variant, winter being better for transmission it may be even less effective.
~1.5 million of the vulnerable groups can't be vaccinated so will be shielding for very long time effectively till the full adult roll out or beyond.
The government strategy of delayed second dose may reduce the vaccine effectiveness (no proper data) and hit the economy in the autumn and winter with higher case rates.
The US has been struggling with vaccination rates as they are far better at distributing it than getting it in people arms.
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One would have to what the Germans considered to be "shielding". Is it the same as that practiced here in which vulnerable residents had things delivered to them ? Without study of the specific actions taken in this country, I don't think we can take the conclusions of the German study at face value.
Please can you repeat the last sentence - I don't see what you're saying.
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