New 4-tier system for England

[Wychwood93]

Do not think you will find many in Dorset who expect things to change. Remember Dorset figures are usually separate to Bournemouth Poole and Christchurch (all Dorset of course) where the figures are far higher, but geographically very close, often one end of a bus route.

I do not foresee any change for Dorset/BCP with regard to tiers - we will stay in 2. Too close to the slightly higher Hampshire which is then too close to the toxic city that is called London. I was born in Hampshire but dumped into Dorset in the 'change' of the early 70's - my bit of what is now BCP is low, as low as the 'Dorset' area. I am resigned to no Xmas lunchtime drink at our local, we have booked a table, just in case (they are not doing food). How long can many of our 'locals' survive? I recall an item on the BBC from a few days ago where a publican/manager (dump in what might fit - a bit like guard/train manager etc.) who said that they were losing less money from staying shut than opening and doing 'substantial' meals.

BBC on in the background - Wales back in lockdown on the 28th Dec - .................... I really do not know what to say.

 

[MikeWM]

How long can many of our 'locals' survive? I recall an item on the BBC from a few days ago where a publican/manager (dump in what might fit - a bit like guard/train manager etc.) who said that they were losing less money from staying shut than opening and doing 'substantial' meals.

Cambridge on Saturday evening was like a ghost town. Pubs that would normally be fairly full seemed to have about 5 people in them.

Every time I've walked past a pub or restaurant in Ely since 'lockdown 2' there doesn't appear to be a single customer in most.

If the same is happening elsewhere, it's a disaster.

 

[DelayRepay]

I am sat in a pub on my own, treating myself to a meal. Today would normally have been our work Christmas meal and in a normal year you would not get a table anywhere.

There are five other people in the pub. The two restaurants I can see from here are both closed.

It feels rather link the last supper. I think we'll be in tier 3 soon and this place will have to close and furlough the staff once again.

 

[joncombe]

I do not foresee any change for Dorset/BCP with regard to tiers - we will stay in 2. Too close to the slightly higher Hampshire which is then too close to the toxic city that is called London. I was born in Hampshire but dumped into Dorset in the 'change' of the early 70's - my bit of what is now BCP is low, as low as the 'Dorset' area. I am resigned to no Xmas lunchtime drink at our local, we have booked a table, just in case (they are not doing food). How long can many of our 'locals' survive? I recall an item on the BBC from a few days ago where a publican/manager (dump in what might fit - a bit like guard/train manager etc.) who said that they were losing less money from staying shut than opening and doing 'substantial' meals.

BBC on in the background - Wales back in lockdown on the 28th Dec - .................... I really do not know what to say.

There isn't any pattern to it though. For example Slough was placed into Tier 3 but nearby towns such as Maidenhead and Windsor were not. So in the case of Dorset I think it's now two unitary authorities (BCP - Bournemeouth, Christchurch & Poole) and Dorset (the rest). So I don't see why BCP could not be in a higher tier than the rest of Dorset, since it would mirror what has happened elsewhere (such as Slough).

Having said that I'd be amazed if anywhere went down a Tier. Of course when faced with a fair degree of opposition from his own MPs Boris was keen to strees that the tiers could drop and that this might well happen in 2 weeks. Now he's got it through I cannot see any chance of anywhere dropping down a tier.

 

[DJH1971]

I can see no change expected for the Liverpool City region, which is in Tier 2.

Although there has been a bit of a jump in Wirral, and plateauing in Liverpool and Knowsley, Halton, Sefton and St Helens are still falling.

 

[DelayRepay]

Does anybody know when we'll find out about any changes?

 

[DJH1971]

Does anybody know when we'll find out about any changes?

Tomorrow morning, unless there are any leaks.

There is lots of nonsense going around - but the reality is that travel is only discouraged by guidance, and there is no law preventing it. Therefore the police have no grounds to try to prevent anyone from doing so. They can advise not to, but nobody has to follow that advice. Provided you stick by the rules in force in whichever is the higher tier of either the one you live in or the one you are going to, you are complying with the law.

I've been to several tier 3 areas within the past few days. I have seen some police about at stations (quite a number at Leeds), but they were just observing and weren't challenging or questioning anyone.

And the bit about being asked for manager's name is just nonsense, and typical of the type of thing which those who think they now have some power like to make up.

So basically, should I worry?

Should I still go if I decide?

Sorry for being a proverbial pain in the backside, but all these mixed messages in the media has frazzled my head a tad.

 

[brad465]

Exactly, I wouldn't be surprised if BoJo cancelled Christmas at 8pm on Christmas Eve.

If they're going to U-turn on this, part of me wants the U-turn to happen somewhat last minute, just so the outrage is so immense that we see the downfall of those in charge and in turn the whole unsustainable strategy.

I’d say that’s pretty much spot-on.



We’ve seen a similar pattern before. Sage stir things up. Boris or someone else says they’re not changing course. Dialogue with Drakeford and Sturgeon. Khan opens his mouth. Ferguson, Whitty or someone else stirs things up more. U-turn follows.

I’d say the fact we’ve had a denial of a change makes it *more* likely based on past experience.

You missed one point, which is just before the U-turn, the U-turn to be made is leaked to the media. Otherwise that's more or less how it goes.

 

[adc82140]

Tomorrow morning, unless there are any leaks.


So basically, should I worry?

Should I still go if I decide?

Sorry for being a proverbial pain in the backside, but all these mixed messages in the media has frazzled my head a tad.

You can do what you like when you like. As long as you make some half arsed "apology" on Twitter afterwards. Worked for Kay Burley and Rita Ora.

 

[bramling]

If they're going to U-turn on this, part of me wants the U-turn to happen somewhat last minute, just so the outrage is so immense that we see the downfall of those in charge and in turn the whole unsustainable strategy.


You missed one point, which is just before the U-turn, the U-turn to be made is leaked to the media. Otherwise that's more or less how it goes.

Oh yes, how could I forget the leak!

I agree with your first point, it might actually serve things better in the long run if he does do a last-minute “Christmas completed cancelled” just as everyone has implemented their plans. It might be the trigger for the mass trouble we need to force a change of direction away from this sorry Etonian shambles.

 

[Class 33]

A fair number of areas deserve to go down a tier today. If I could give one example, Bristol where I live. When the revised tiering system was announced in late November(can't remember the exact date that was!), the infection rate had in the space of a couple of weeks already tumbled down from a peak of about 500 in every 100,000 down to about 334 in every 100,000. But it was put in Tier 3! Since then though it has tumbled down even further to currently just 117 in every 100,000. So that's a massive decrease of 65% since Bristol went into Tier 3. And an infection rate of 117 in every 100,000 is absolutely miniscule anyway, and only a tiny percentage of those people will go onto being hospitalised or die. So Bristol definitely deserves to be downgraded to Tier 2, as should many other cities in a similar situation. But there were already reports yesterday that they expect Bristol to remain in Tier 3. And reports that they expect very very few areas will be downgraded a Tier today, but that many areas will go up a Tier! I feel this is going to be a con job, and that many areas will be stuck in Tier 3 for many weeks to come.

Will see what happens at 11:30 this morning. But I feel many people will be feeling very angry at the decisions announced today, in particular those working in the hospitality sector.

 

[NorthOxonian]

A fair number of areas deserve to go down a tier today. If I could give one example, Bristol where I live. When the revised tiering system was announced in late November(can't remember the exact date that was!), the infection rate had in the space of a couple of weeks already tumbled down from a peak of about 500 in every 100,000 down to about 334 in every 100,000. But it was put in Tier 3! Since then though it has tumbled down even further to currently just 117 in every 100,000. So that's a massive decrease of 65% since Bristol went into Tier 3. And an infection rate of 117 in every 100,000 is absolutely miniscule anyway, and only a tiny percentage of those people will go onto being hospitalised or die. So Bristol definitely deserves to be downgraded to Tier 2, as should many other cities in a similar situation. But there were already reports yesterday that they expect Bristol to remain in Tier 3. And reports that they expect very very few areas will be downgraded a Tier today, but that many areas will go up a Tier! I feel this is going to be a con job, and that many areas will be stuck in Tier 3 for many weeks to come.

Will see what happens at 11:30 this morning. But I feel many people will be feeling angry at the decisions announced today.

I expect one or two areas are likely to be dropped a tier (for symbolic reasons as much as anything). Likely candidates are Bristol as you say due to low infection rates, and West Yorkshire or Humberside where rates aren't quite so low but are falling. However the main movement will be upwards - I would be surprised if any of Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Surrey, or Berkshire avoided Tier 3.

 

[Bantamzen]

A fair number of areas deserve to go down a tier today. If I could give one example, Bristol where I live. When the revised tiering system was announced in late November(can't remember the exact date that was!), the infection rate had in the space of a couple of weeks already tumbled down from a peak of about 500 in every 100,000 down to about 334 in every 100,000. But it was put in Tier 3! Since then though it has tumbled down even further to currently just 117 in every 100,000. So that's a massive decrease of 65% since Bristol went into Tier 3. And an infection rate of 117 in every 100,000 is absolutely miniscule anyway, and only a tiny percentage of those people will go onto being hospitalised or die. So Bristol definitely deserves to be downgraded to Tier 2, as should many other cities in a similar situation. But there were already reports yesterday that they expect Bristol to remain in Tier 3. And reports that they expect very very few areas will be downgraded a Tier today, but that many areas will go up a Tier! I feel this is going to be a con job, and that many areas will be stuck in Tier 3 for many weeks to come.

Will see what happens at 11:30 this morning. But I feel many people will be feeling angry at the decisions announced today.

We're in a similar position in Bradford, from one of the highest reported* rates we have dropped below the national average. However despite some businesses seemingly preparing for T2 here in West Yorkshire (for example Bradford City setting up arrangements for fans back at the ground for Saturday's game), I'm very much expecting no change. If this proves to be the case, there will be a lot of angry people.

(*I say reported because I'm pretty sure testing is way more intense in the North of England than in many places elsewhere in the country)

 

[yorksrob]

Wakefield is at 161 per 100,000, which is below the national average.

If we're still in tier 3 at the end of the day, it will illustrate even more starkly what a sham the tier system is.

 

[bramling]

We're in a similar position in Bradford, from one of the highest reported* rates we have dropped below the national average. However despite some businesses seemingly preparing for T2 here in West Yorkshire (for example Bradford City setting up arrangements for fans back at the ground for Saturday's game), I'm very much expecting no change. If this proves to be the case, there will be a lot of angry people.

(*I say reported because I'm pretty sure testing is way more intense in the North of England than in many places elsewhere in the country)

I feel quite sorry for many of the businesses who are posting “we’re hoping to re-open on the 16th”. That’s already come and gone, but I can’t see how places can plan on the basis of not knowing, for example a hospitality business would need to have supplies in. Sadly it seems another example of BJ’s lack of real-world life experience.

 

[yorksrob]

To be honest, I really wouldn't blame any businesses for staying closed, rather than reopening just to be screwed over again in two weeks time.

 

[bramling]

To be honest, I really wouldn't blame any businesses for staying closed, rather than reopening just to be screwed over again in two weeks time.

Yes it’s obvious that’s going to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised we get a repeat of last month with shops being closed too.

 

[Crossover]

To be honest, I really wouldn't blame any businesses for staying closed, rather than reopening just to be screwed over again in two weeks time.

This is the stance Beerhouses (owners of the West Riding at Dewsbury station, alongside a few other pubs) have taken

 

[johntea]

I'm expecting the usual waffle followed by not many changes if I'm honest

Bingo card
"Winter pressures"
"Vaccine"
"Protect our NHS"

 

[duncanp]

What annoys me is that some people in the NHS and the medical establishment seem to think that they are the government, and as reported in some papers this morning are telling the government that no areas should be moved down to Tier 2, but that several areas should be moved up to Tier 3.

What we really need is a set of clearly defined criteria for an area to be in a particular tier, based on the infection rate, the rate of change in the infection rate, the age distribution of infections, the prevalence of infections, and the predicted effect on the NHS.

Then there would be a clear set of objective criteria to guide the government in making its' decisions. At the moment the process seems to be very secretive and subjective. Not only that, but if there are objective criteria for each tier, it would provide an incentive for areas in higher tiers to follow the rules in the hope of being moved to a lower tier, and for areas in lower tiers to follow the rules in order to avoid being moved to a higher tier.

 

[roversfan2001]

Unfortunately I don't hold out much hope for Lancashire moving down into Tier 2, either today or any time soon. If the powers that be refuse to divide Lancs into east and west then the people in Blackpool/Lancaster/South Ribble will continue to be penalised for the infection rate in Burnley. Bonkers decision making.

 

[Ascotroyal]

Its been confirmed Lancashire will remain in tier 3

 

[DJH1971]

Warrington is staying in Tier 2

 

[Trackman]

From what I have been reading, it seems there is going to be very little change.

 

[Jamesrob637]

If anything, some more parts of the South will go up to Tier 3.

 

[joncombe]

Yes I expect the counties surrounding London to all go to tier 3 (those that aren't already like Surrey & Berkshire).

As to reduction I'm not sure, but I expect some scare-mongering about this "new variant" to be an excuse not to downgrade areas where it really is justified.

 

[Class 33]

Only Bristol and North Somerset being downgraded from Tier 3 to Tier 2.

Only Herefordshire downgraded from Tier 2 to Tier 1.

Upgraded from Tier 2 to Tier 3 are Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Peterborough, the whole of Hertfordshire and Surrey (with the exception of Waverley), Hastings and Rother on the Kent border of East Sussex and Portsmouth, Gosport and Havant in Hampshire.

 

[joncombe]

Seems Class 33 beat me to it. Anyway a pleasant surprise some areas are moving down, especially to tier 1. Not a surprise to see all the counties around London moving up. Just a bit surprised to see Waverley in Surrey is excluded.

 

[adc82140]

Disappointed that Dorset isn't going down to Tier 1.

Not surprised that all of my other local ones are staying in Tier 2.

 

[DJH1971]

Bristol and North Somerset go down to Tier 2 whilst Herefordshire goes down to Tier 1