Could be any time from now on. Or not.
There are plenty of reasons for delay:
- new PM/cabinet coming in July, possible change of rail policy
- the new franchise is closely tied in with HS2 policy, which has its own set of political issues
- it's a very sensitive decision, with legal challenges over the bid process and Stagecoach/Virgin/SNCF's exclusion
- the winner might not want to agree terms, with all the uncertainties around
It was supposed to be awarded in June, with the new franchise to start in March.
There's no desperate rush - another direct award to Virgin Trains would kick the can down the road a bit more.
Further delay makes a clash with the Williams review recommendations more likely.
The government is on a hiding to nothing on this one.
I suspect they are looking for excuses not to make an award until HS2 gets its "approval to proceed". Or not.