New national restrictions in Wales

[brad465]

People often quote Sweden as a example of how things should be done. I disagree. We should be looking to South Korea. They have had a large case increase over the last few days. Are they locking down? No. They are pouring resources in to testing and tracing on a hyper local level.

The fact it's surging (relatively speaking) there shows just how difficult it is to control Covid. After all, it's winter, which is essentially "party season" for a respiratory virus. The Wales firebreak, and maybe the France lockdown 2 as well, showed it can be controlled, but only with the most extreme of measures, lift them and it rockets when the weather is right for the virus. I put it like that because the lifting of the first lockdowns around Europe clearly didn't cause an immediate resurgence, where we were going into summer at that point.

 

[Crossover]

Moreover, aside from the new restrictions from Christmas Eve, Drakeford has also tweaked the Christmas rules for Wales to a maximum of 2 households plus a household with a single person

Nothing like cohesion across the nations...

 

[HSTEd]

Moreover, aside from the new restrictions from Christmas Eve, Drakeford has also tweaked the Christmas rules for Wales to a maximum of 2 households plus a household with a single person

Nothing like cohesion across the nations...

Well he wants to cancel the relaxation but knows he would be flattened in the polls if he did.

 

[Spartacus]

Well he wants to cancel the relaxation but knows he would be flattened in the polls if he did.

I suspect any politician who decided to cancel the Christmas relaxation altogether now would be at serious risk of being flattened in the street, never mind in the polls. Reading many of the opinions on Drakeford even now makes Johnson look widely adored, I think people lost their respect for him with his bizarre shopping restrictions.

 

[kristiang85]

Apparently the Welsh are going to announce 11,000 backlogged "cases" (postive tests) due to a system error.

It does seem rather convenient in terms of timing.

 

[PHILIPE]

Apparently the Welsh are going to announce 11,000 backlogged "cases" (postive tests) due to a system error.

It does seem rather convenient in terms of timing.

Attributed to routine maintenance of the system at the weekend

 

[Cdd89]

Given what we know about the mental health consequences of lockdowns, it will be appalling and evil (a word I don’t often use) if Drakeford’s proposed indefinite lockdown is another repeat of the firebreak which disallowed the use of open-air recreation.

This may have been just-about justifiable back in March, but with what we now know about Covid transmission risks it would be a disproportionate trampling over human rights.

 

[adc82140]

According to the Welsh government (sorry can't quote as it's a PDF and my phone is acting up) parks and playgrounds and other such open spaces remain open at level 4.

 

[Cdd89]

Hmm, despite a bit of searching I wasn’t successful in finding the Level 4 rules! If that’s accurate then that’s good news.

 

[adc82140]

Here's a list from the BBC

For the benefit of those using text readers, there is a list of things you can do under level 4, as a PNG image (so unquotable) including the following being open:

Education
Places of worship including for restricted weddings
Crematoriums
Community centres for specific purposes
Outdoor recreation including playgrounds

Open air visitor attractions are closed.

Covid: What are the latest rules for Wales?

Face mask rules in health and social care settings, the last of Wales' Covid rules, are scrapped.

www.bbc.co.uk

What is alert level 4?​

Wales will enter alert level 4 from 28 December, the most similar level of restrictions to the first lockdown or the firebreak in the autumn.
However, unlike then, schools and childcare will stay open.

People will be required to stay at home, not create an extended household and only mix with their household or support bubble.
A support bubble can be formed by single adults or single parents joining another household.
The rule on who you can mix with applies both indoors and outdoors.
Travelling will only by allowed for essential purposes, such as for work and for caring responsibilities. International travel would not be allowed.
All indoor and outdoor events and visitor attractions will be cancelled or closed, non-essential shops will shut as will gyms, hairdressers, hospitality businesses and holiday accommodation.
Wedding ceremonies and funerals can take place with limited numbers, but no receptions or wakes can occur.

 

[Richard Scott]

Moreover, aside from the new restrictions from Christmas Eve, Drakeford has also tweaked the Christmas rules for Wales to a maximum of 2 households plus a household with a single person

Nothing like cohesion across the nations...

What's the chances of people sticking to it? Many will have made their plans and possibly shopped accordingly. What are the actual hospital numbers in Wales as that's what's important not how many have it. Have had a real upturn in numbers where I live but don't know of any serious cases just mild ones.

 

[Cardiff123]

Time for a BBC style fact check on some of the wild aspertions being made about the 'evil' Welsh Govt in this thread. Starting with:

Well he wants to cancel the relaxation but knows he would be flattened in the polls if he did.

What evidence do you have for this claim? Do you know Mark Drakeford personally? If you had watched the Welsh Govt Coronavirus briefing yesterday, his statement in the Senedd on Tuesday, and the many media interviews he did yesterday, you will know that the first minister has come under immense pressure from leaders and senior medics in the NHS in Wales to bring in a Christmas lockdown. But he has not agreed to that because he is painfully aware of the effect "cancelling Christmas" will have on people's mental health and wellbeing. Hence why hospitality is being allowed to stay open on Christmas day.

Your claim therefore is just your opinion.

Reading many of the opinions on Drakeford even now makes Johnson look widely adored, I think people lost their respect for him with his bizarre shopping restrictions.

The same non-essential items shopping restrictions were also applied in English supermarkets during England's month long lockdown.

Given what we know about the mental health consequences of lockdowns, it will be appalling and evil (a word I don’t often use) if Drakeford’s proposed indefinite lockdown is another repeat of the firebreak which disallowed the use of open-air recreation.

This may have been just-about justifiable back in March, but with what we now know about Covid transmission risks it would be a disproportionate trampling over human rights.

Wow, hyperbole turned up to the max here. Firstly, the First Minister is acutely aware of the mental health consequences of lockdowns. Do you live in Wales and watch his Covid briefings? Or do you get your news about what's happening in Wales from a fair and balanced publication such as the Daily Mail?
The lockdown is not 'open ended'. It will be reviewed every 3 weeks, the first review being on 14 January.

The anti-lockdown tone of this thread is staggering. How else can the virus be bought under control and infection rates be drastically reduced? Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with covid patients. 2 health health boards in Wales have already cancelled all non-urgent and scheduled care to deal with Covid patients. More have warned they will follow if a lockdown is not brought in. On the weekend, one major hospital had to turn patients away and leave others waiting for up to 19 hours in ambulances because they had no beds left due to them being full with Covid patients. Over half of all hospital beds in Wales are now occupied with Covid patients, the equivalent of 5 full general hospitals, just with Covid patients. Medics in Wales are warning without a lockdown, rationing of NHS care will be a reality for the first time in the history of the NHS. Medics (the people who have to actually deal with seriously sick Covid patients) in Wales are pleading with the First Minister to go much, much further than he has.

Experts and people on the frontline of this fight do actually know what they are talking about, despite what some people in this post-Brexit, post-truth era seem to believe.

 

[Bantamzen]

Time for a BBC style fact check on some of the wild aspertions being made about the 'evil' Welsh Govt in this thread. Starting with:


What evidence do you have for this claim? Do you know Mark Drakeford personally? If you had watched the Welsh Govt Coronavirus briefing yesterday, his statement in the Senedd on Tuesday, and the many media interviews he did yesterday, you will know that the first minister has come under immense pressure from leaders and senior medics in the NHS in Wales to bring in a Christmas lockdown. But he has not agreed to that because he is painfully aware of the effect "cancelling Christmas" will have on people's mental health and wellbeing. Hence why hospitality is being allowed to stay open on Christmas day.

Your claim therefore is just your opinion.



The same non-essential items shopping restrictions were also applied in English supermarkets during England's month long lockdown.

Wow, hyperbole turned up to the max here. Firstly, the First Minister is acutely aware of the mental health consequences of lockdowns. Do you live in Wales and watch his Covid briefings? Or do you get your news about what's happening in Wales from a fair and balanced publication such as the Daily Mail?
The lockdown is not 'open ended'. It will be reviewed every 3 weeks, the first review being on 14 January.

The anti-lockdown tone of this thread is staggering. How else can the virus be bought under control and infection rates be drastically reduced? Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with covid patients. 2 health health boards in Wales have already cancelled all non-urgent and scheduled care to deal with Covid patients. More have warned they will follow if a lockdown is not brought in. On the weekend, one major hospital had to turn patients away and leave others waiting for up to 19 hours in ambulances because they had no beds left due to them being full with Covid patients. Over half of all hospital beds in Wales are now occupied with Covid patients, the equivalent of 5 full general hospitals, just with Covid patients. Medics in Wales are warning without a lockdown, rationing of NHS care will be a reality for the first time in the history of the NHS. Medics (the people who have to actually deal with seriously sick Covid patients) in Wales are pleading with the First Minister to go much, much further than he has.

Experts and people on the frontline of this fight do actually know what they are talking about, despite what some people in this post-Brexit, post-truth era seem to believe.

Do you want to know why some of us feel so strongly against lockdowns? Because they don't work. All around the globe countries have tried them only to find that shock, horror, the virus is still there waiting for us to come out of hiding. Now some might suggest that we knew this all along, mainly because it is what happens with other respiratory viruses, and that lockdowns were simply a combination of knee-jerk reaction & a political desire to be seen to be doing something, anything to convince the public that politicians could "beat" the virus.

Of course none of this should be a surprise on these forums, because this line of discussion has been going on for months now.

 

[Cdd89]

Wow, hyperbole turned up to the max here. Firstly, the First Minister is acutely aware of the mental health consequences of lockdowns. Do you live in Wales and watch his Covid briefings? Or do you get your news about what's happening in Wales from a fair and balanced publication such as the Daily Mail?

I neither live in Wales nor watch his briefings, and am glad I do not do so.

If I'm wrong in my speculation about Wales banning open-air recreation - and it sounds like, thankfully, I am - that is only because they are going to do something different than has been done in every previous lockdown, including the November firebreak. I'm happy to give credit where it's due on that, and withdraw my earlier remarks.

Do you think open-air recreation should be banned? Explain your reasoning!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

According to the Welsh government (sorry can't quote as it's a PDF and my phone is acting up) parks and playgrounds and other such open spaces remain open at level 4.

There are restrictions on "visitor facilities" in Tier 4, which is things like toilets and cafes I suppose.
In the first "stay home/local" lockdown it included closing car parks and access to some public paths including on popular mountains.
It isn't clear (to me anyway) if those sort of restrictions will return.
Part of the aim was to stop crowding at honeypot locations (Snowdon for instance).
Might not be so necessary in winter.

 

[Darandio]

The same non-essential items shopping restrictions were also applied in English supermarkets during England's month long lockdown.

Then I must have missed the aisles being taped off and shelves being covered so items couldn't be even looked at, never mind purchased.

My experience was that if the supermarket sold something, you could buy it.

 

[Crossover]

The same non-essential items shopping restrictions were also applied in English supermarkets during England's month long lockdown.

Then I must have missed the aisles being taped off and shelves being covered so items couldn't be even looked at, never mind purchased.

My experience was that if the supermarket sold something, you could buy it.

My recollection is similar to @Darandio!

 

[Hardcastle]

The crazy thing is that Herefordshire just over the border has moved from tier 2 to tier 3 from this Saturday begs the question how will this stop people crossing over from Wales to England for a night out.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The crazy thing is that Herefordshire just over the border has moved from tier 2 to tier 3 from this Saturday begs the question how will this stop people crossing over from Wales to England for a night out.

Herefordshire has moved from Tier 2 to Tier 1!
"They're going to be dancing in the streets in Hay-on-Wye tonight" (well, just down the road...).

 

[kristiang85]

The anti-lockdown tone of this thread is staggering. How else can the virus be bought under control and infection rates be drastically reduced?

You do realise that up to last year, for pandemics official WHO guidance recommended against track and trace (waste of money), recommended against quarantine (ineffective), and didn't even mention lockdowns as they didn't think anybody would even attempt them. The only reason we do them is because China did it and the west blindly followed (for reasons I can't quite comprehend), and lots of research since then -as well as bitter experience - shows they don't make a jot of difference, have too many detrimental effects, or just kick the can down the road.

There are various published papers collated here if you want to read into the science behind the scepticism: https://thefatemperor.com/published...ckdown-weak-efficacy-and-lockdown-huge-harms/

Also, lockdowns were due to the fear of asymptomatic spread - this has been a somewhat forgotten facet of this who argument. But research shows asymptomatic spread is absolutely minimal; again it was a story from the initial outbreak in China that has been allowed to perpetuate. Without asymptomatic spread, there is no justification for lockdowns of the healthy.

 

[bramling]

I

Time for a BBC style fact check on some of the wild aspertions being made about the 'evil' Welsh Govt in this thread. Starting with:


What evidence do you have for this claim? Do you know Mark Drakeford personally? If you had watched the Welsh Govt Coronavirus briefing yesterday, his statement in the Senedd on Tuesday, and the many media interviews he did yesterday, you will know that the first minister has come under immense pressure from leaders and senior medics in the NHS in Wales to bring in a Christmas lockdown. But he has not agreed to that because he is painfully aware of the effect "cancelling Christmas" will have on people's mental health and wellbeing. Hence why hospitality is being allowed to stay open on Christmas day.

Your claim therefore is just your opinion.



The same non-essential items shopping restrictions were also applied in English supermarkets during England's month long lockdown.

Wow, hyperbole turned up to the max here. Firstly, the First Minister is acutely aware of the mental health consequences of lockdowns. Do you live in Wales and watch his Covid briefings? Or do you get your news about what's happening in Wales from a fair and balanced publication such as the Daily Mail?
The lockdown is not 'open ended'. It will be reviewed every 3 weeks, the first review being on 14 January.

The anti-lockdown tone of this thread is staggering. How else can the virus be bought under control and infection rates be drastically reduced? Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with covid patients. 2 health health boards in Wales have already cancelled all non-urgent and scheduled care to deal with Covid patients. More have warned they will follow if a lockdown is not brought in. On the weekend, one major hospital had to turn patients away and leave others waiting for up to 19 hours in ambulances because they had no beds left due to them being full with Covid patients. Over half of all hospital beds in Wales are now occupied with Covid patients, the equivalent of 5 full general hospitals, just with Covid patients. Medics in Wales are warning without a lockdown, rationing of NHS care will be a reality for the first time in the history of the NHS. Medics (the people who have to actually deal with seriously sick Covid patients) in Wales are pleading with the First Minister to go much, much further than he has.

Experts and people on the frontline of this fight do actually know what they are talking about, despite what some people in this post-Brexit, post-truth era seem to believe.

I can certainly take the point about hospital capacity, however we then have to ask the question as to what has been done over the last 9 months to try and uplift that capacity? One does wonder, given that the Johnson narrative has been send it packing in 12 weeks, normality but November, et cetera.

 

[kristiang85]

I can certainly take the point about hospital capacity, however we then have to ask the question as to what has been done over the last 9 months to try and uplift that capacity? One does wonder, given that the Johnson narrative has been send it packing in 12 weeks, normality but November, et cetera.

I would argue that the sentence "Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with covid patients." should be rewritten as "Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with patients, some of which have tested positive for COVID".

The Welsh NHS was not in a great state, and if COVID hadn't been identified this year, probably there wouldn't be many headlines on it as it is a fairly normal occurence. I did a very quick Google News search on Welsh NHS crises dated prior to 2020, and all these articles come up:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/apr/10/welsh-nhs-waiting-times-uk-tests-patients-wales (2014)
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/nhs-wales-badly-run-by-labour-or-underfunded-by-westminster (2017)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...sands-cross-border-life-saving-treatment.html (2014)
https://www.theguardian.com/society...ack-alert-as-patient-safety-no-longer-assured (2017 - although an article on England & Wales the main picture used is Wales)
https://www.socialistparty.org.uk/a...18/welsh-nhs-crisis-we-cannot-go-on-like-this (2018)
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1219471/NHS-crisis-ambulance-wait-wales-news (2019)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/11/guardian-view-nhs-crisis-not-just-the-flu (2018, again both England & Wales but covers pertinent points)

Hospitals in Wales, and elsewhere, being overrun in winter is nothing new. It points to a chronic mismanagement and underfunding of the NHS in general by successive governments for the last 20 years.

It is not COVID causing these problems; it is inherent issues in the structure and organisation of the NHS that need a lot of funding and restructuring to resolve. COVID is just the news story that highlights it more.

The government has always said it needs to be careful on public spending, so the money needed has not been forthcoming. But the money spent on lockdowns in England & Wales is eyewatering, and could pay for the new hospital beds needed many times over, and future proof the NHS for a generation. But instead it is all being spaffed on getting people through lockdown, and future tax receipts are being decimated every time another business goes bust and people are laid off.

After the first lockdown, we just needed to take stock, and put all the resources into shoring up the health services for this winter (and the future), and let everybody live their lives as normal. The health system would have coped.

 

[MikeWM]

I would argue that the sentence "Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with covid patients." should be rewritten as "Welsh hospitals are very close to being over run with patients, some of which have tested positive for COVID".

The Welsh NHS was not in a great state, and if COVID hadn't been identified this year, probably there wouldn't be many headlines on it as it is a fairly normal occurence.

I recall Theresa May going on about the NHS in Wales pretty much every week at PMQs to try and deflect criticism of the NHS in other parts of the UK. It became quite a cliche, but maybe there was some truth to it too.

 

[adc82140]

Every year there are headlines about hospitals in crisis. Usually though it's on page 17.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

You do realise that up to last year, for pandemics official WHO guidance recommended against track and trace (waste of money), recommended against quarantine (ineffective), and didn't even mention lockdowns as they didn't think anybody would even attempt them. The only reason we do them is because China did it and the west blindly followed (for reasons I can't quite comprehend), and lots of research since then -as well as bitter experience - shows they don't make a jot of difference, have too many detrimental effects, or just kick the can down the road.
Also, lockdowns were due to the fear of asymptomatic spread - this has been a somewhat forgotten facet of this who argument. But research shows asymptomatic spread is absolutely minimal; again it was a story from the initial outbreak in China that has been allowed to perpetuate. Without asymptomatic spread, there is no justification for lockdowns of the healthy.

The WHO was also not recommending the wearing of face masks outside health settings, and nor was the Welsh CMO Frank Atherton.
After a month or two they very reluctantly accepted face masks as a "possible help" in curbing transmission if you couldn't distance fully, such as on a train.
Now it has become obligatory in all inside settings and something of a social rule, regardless of its actual efficacy.

 

[kristiang85]

The WHO was also not recommending the wearing of face masks outside health settings, and nor was the Welsh CMO Frank Atherton.
After a month or two they very reluctantly accepted face masks as a "possible help" in curbing transmission if you couldn't distance fully, such as on a train.
Now it has become obligatory in all inside settings and something of a social rule, regardless of its actual efficacy.

Yes I forgot to mention that too. Even Professors Gloom and Doom said not to wear them at the beginning of the UK pandemic.

 

[Spartacus]

The same non-essential items shopping restrictions were also applied in English supermarkets during England's month long lockdown.

They most certainly did not. If a shop or supermarket was permitted to open it was permitted to sell anything which it had on sale. A few places chose to be different, but that was purely through choice.

 

[Scotrail12]

Rumours going around that Scotland are going to do the same thing.

Both countries have been in an endless cycle since September - open, close, open, close. It's not just confusing but it must be crucifying businesses with them having to open and close so many times. All while politicians can't see that they aren't working. It's like repeating a science experiment several times and expecting better results when it has clearly failed. Some things just don't work!

 

[Kite159]

Rumours going around that Scotland are going to do the same thing.

Both countries have been in an endless cycle since September - open, close, open, close. It's not just confusing but it must be crucifying businesses with them having to open and close so many times. All while politicians can't see that they aren't working. It's like repeating a science experiment several times and expecting better results when it has clearly failed. Some things just don't work!

Same with Northern Ireland who are going back into lockdown after Christmas.

Just pushing the can down the road with no regards to mental health, other routine medical stuff being pushed back (or even worse a face to face meeting with a doctor replaced by a phone call) or the economy.

 

[bramling]

Rumours going around that Scotland are going to do the same thing.

Both countries have been in an endless cycle since September - open, close, open, close. It's not just confusing but it must be crucifying businesses with them having to open and close so many times. All while politicians can't see that they aren't working. It's like repeating a science experiment several times and expecting better results when it has clearly failed. Some things just don't work!

If we get to a situation where Wales, NI and Scotland do it then I bet BJ will cave in and do it, probably announcing at something like 8pm on Christmas Eve.

The four nation approach to all this has been disastrous, and must never be allowed to happen again.

Yes I forgot to mention that too. Even Professors Gloom and Doom said not to wear them at the beginning of the UK pandemic.

And I get the feeling that behind the scenes they’re still of that opinion.