New XC contract - news & updates (not speculation)

[Brissle Girl]

The Cardiff to Edinburgh service puzzles me. Realistically, given cost and time, there will be precious few passengers travelling between the two capital cities given cheaper fares will be available from Bristol Airport (Loganair from Cardiff appears rather more expensive than Easyjet from Bristol.)

So what will the one train a day achieve? There's already good connectivity as far as Derby with the hourly XC service. One through train to the Yorkshire and the North East would appear a rather limited improvement, that's hardly likely to excite the South Wales travelling public when there's a reasonable hourly service with cross platform connection at Bristol Parkway (and of course, from west of Cardiff that one change will still be required, whether at Cardiff or Bristol Parkway).

 

[HamworthyGoods]

I think they were more referring to the fact that only 7 are coming over, when XC really could use most, if not all, of the ex-Avanti 221s to combat their capacity issues (GC transfers aside)

Yes a TOC can always use extra trains but if the finances don’t add up treasury is never going to approve. 7 extra trains is still an improvement. I really can’t get my head round this well why don’t they just take the other 13 because they exist. That’s not how business cases work!

 

[dk1]

Doesn’t Cardiff to Edinburgh just mean starting 1S35 back from Cardiff (reversing Bristol) as has happened with previous Cardiff starters in the last few years? Was there any mention of a return working?

 

[mp01]

The Cardiff to Edinburgh service puzzles me. Realistically, given cost and time, there will be precious few passengers travelling between the two capital cities given cheaper fares will be available from Bristol Airport (Loganair from Cardiff appears rather more expensive than Easyjet from Bristol.)

So what will the one train a day achieve? There's already good connectivity as far as Derby with the hourly XC service. One through train to the Yorkshire and the North East would appear a rather limited improvement, that's hardly likely to excite the South Wales travelling public when there's a reasonable hourly service with cross platform connection at Bristol Parkway (and of course, from west of Cardiff that one change will still be required, whether at Cardiff or Bristol Parkway).

And generally quicker and cheaper to take the Marches line and change at Crewe.

 

[Goldfish62]

Yes a TOC can always use extra trains but if the finances don’t add up treasury is never going to approve. 7 extra trains is still an improvement. I really can’t get my head round this well why don’t they just take the other 13 because they exist. That’s not how business cases work!

Business cases for XC appear to be based on the principle that rammed trains which leave passengers behind are acceptable and any additional capacity to meaningfully address this will never pass any economic test. Which is strange given the whole long list of additional rolling stock authorisations over recent years to address capacity issues elsewhere on the network.

 

[Ayman Ilham]

The Cardiff to Edinburgh service puzzles me. Realistically, given cost and time, there will be precious few passengers travelling between the two capital cities given cheaper fares will be available from Bristol Airport (Loganair from Cardiff appears rather more expensive than Easyjet from Bristol.)

So what will the one train a day achieve? There's already good connectivity as far as Derby with the hourly XC service. One through train to the Yorkshire and the North East would appear a rather limited improvement, that's hardly likely to excite the South Wales travelling public when there's a reasonable hourly service with cross platform connection at Bristol Parkway (and of course, from west of Cardiff that one change will still be required, whether at Cardiff or Bristol Parkway).

Plus, it's probably faster going via the WCML changing at Crewe (TfW via Marches) or B'ham (XC) for the Avanti service anyway.

And generally quicker and cheaper to take the Marches line and change at Crewe.

Oh look, someone beat me to it

Yes a TOC can always use extra trains but if the finances don’t add up treasury is never going to approve. 7 extra trains is still an improvement. I really can’t get my head round this well why don’t they just take the other 13 because they exist. That’s not how business cases work!

Wouldn't there be just 3 left cos Grand Central are planning to take 10 (2 down, 8 to go) of them?

 

[JonathanH]

Which is strange given the whole long list of additional rolling stock authorisations over recent years to address capacity issues elsewhere on the network.

Which rolling stock authorisations to address capacity have been made since March 2020? XC missed out in the past admittedly but this seems to be a different era, where managing potential increases in cost is important.

 

[Russel]

Of the 5 HST sets that have been lost, how many were in use on a regular basis towards the end, 2 sets a day?

So, 7 trains replacing 2 looks like an improvement to me.

 

[Bartsimho]

How long is the renewal for?

 

[dk1]

How long is the renewal for?

Eight years. Option to terminate after four.

 

[Bartsimho]

Eight years. Option to terminate after four.

I'd dare say it's more than just a railway choice then with those time periods

 

[Goldfish62]

Which rolling stock authorisations to address capacity have been made since March 2020? XC missed out in the past admittedly but this seems to be a different era.

None I can think of. As you admit XC has missed out in the past when others benefitted, and still suffers from chronic overcrowding, this being exacerbated since May with the reduction in capacity on the Reading - Birmingham corridor.

But I guess your point is that since 2020 the game has changed and the Treasury will no longer authorise any additional rolling stock anywhere to address capacity issues as they arise. After all, it suits the government's obvious agenda to make rail travel less attractive and move people onto roads (and helicopters).

What a way to run a railway!

 

[dk1]

I'd dare say it's more than just a railway choice then with those time periods

Sorry I don’t follow.

I can only think you mean politically with the election looming.

 

[Bartsimho]

Sorry I don’t follow.

I can only think you mean politically with the election looming.

Yeah. Election in about a year. Then the next government are tied into the contract until late in the 5 year cycle and they would be unable to improve it that fast for the follow up. Turning XC around would be a really good win for the next government but with the contract lengths it would likely not have been improved but be in Government hands by the following election

 

[Doctor Fegg]

The Cardiff to Edinburgh service puzzles me. Realistically, given cost and time, there will be precious few passengers travelling between the two capital cities given cheaper fares will be available from Bristol Airport (Loganair from Cardiff appears rather more expensive than Easyjet from Bristol.)

So what will the one train a day achieve?

A nice line in a press release and an opportunity for a Government minister to say "we are improving connectivity between the nations of the UK"? I wouldn't give it any more substance than that.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Why is leaving a tiny sub fleet the DfTs problem? They didn’t buy them or own them, that’s the ROSCO’s problem.
If you run a business and want to lease 4 vans from a van hire company you don’t ask them how many they have left over and the decide you are going to lease 5 because you don’t want the van hire company to be left with just one!
DfT and XC have obviously done their calculations and worked out 7 is what is affordable at this time and it’s 7 more than many of us have expected, you can’t take on more trains than the money available to pay the lease.

The analogy beaks down somewhat when you figure that all of the "vans" can only be used on your (DfT) business (with one TOC or another), or possibly on the one open access TOC that runs 125mph trains off the wires.
So DfT may have another plan to use the 13 spare Voyagers, or it will let the Rosco sweat as it's at their risk.
The Rosco (Beacon Rail) has at least got some lease revenue and the refurbishment contract, and there are no maintenance complications.

 

[jamieh27]

They'll get additional 7x 221s to start and then maybe lateron (possibly next year) when Avanti have their 805s and 807s ready they can withdraw all their 221s and they could go to XC.

 

[Brissle Girl]

They'll get additional 7x 221s to start and then maybe lateron (possibly next year) when Avanti have their 805s and 807s ready they can withdraw all their 221s and they could go to XC.

You can be sure that if that was the intention then it would have been in the press release. Ministers wouldn't miss an opportunity like that to trumpet a potential improvement even if it's a year or so away (indeed, I doubt the 7 sets will be released until the 805/807s are ready anyway).

 

[skyhigh]

Wouldn't there be just 3 left cos Grand Central are planning to take 10 (2 down, 8 to go) of them?

GC have said nothing at all on the subject of taking any further 221s so any guess they're taking 8 more is complete speculation.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

You can be sure that if that was the intention then it would have been in the press release. Ministers wouldn't miss an opportunity like that to trumpet a potential improvement even if it's a year or so away (indeed, I doubt the 7 sets will be released until the 805/807s are ready anyway).

Avanti are using all but 4 of their 221s today (According to RTT) so they will indeed some replacement first.
The first 805s will probably be in service quite a bit before the last 807s.

 

[170UTD]

Wouldn't there be just 3 left cos Grand Central are planning to take 10 (2 down, 8 to go) of them?

Yes, only having 3 units go to storage doesn't make a lot of sense to me, you'd have thought GC would want an extra 2 and XC and extra 1 (or vice versa). However, many people know more about the financial side of things than me.
Unless they're kept by AWC for cover?
Side note: is there an exact date for the 805s/807s entering service?

 

[Spaceship323]

Yes, only having 3 units go to storage doesn't make a lot of sense to me, you'd have thought GC would want an extra 2 and XC and extra 1 (or vice versa). However, many people know more about the financial side of things than me.
Unless they're kept by AWC for cover?
Side note: is there an exact date for the 805s/807s entering service?

No, Grand Central are taking 10 vehicles, NOT 10 units (I.e. 2x 5 car 221's)

 

[xotGD]

It makes economic sense to have crush loaded trains while perfectly good stock is sitting off lease in a siding somewhere.

Unfortunately.

 

[greyman42]

No mention of seats being replaced just new LED lightning, CCTV, passenger counting equipment and new carpets.

Do you mean the whole seat frame or just the re-upholstery of the current squab and back?
The seats are relatively comfortable by modern standards so a re-upholstery would be fine.
On another query, are we going to get a meaningful service between Newcastle and the south east?

 

[anthony263]

Still no charging facilities proposed for the Class 170s. Unacceptable for the long distances they cover such as Cardiff - Nottingham and Birmingham - Cambridge/Stansted Airport.

I agree its a bloody pain when I'm on them from Cardiff to Birmingham New Street and from New Street to South Wigston

 

[gazzaa2]

Glad to finally see a full fleet refurbishment for CrossCountry, very overdue.

Makes little difference. Until they get adequate capacity I won't be using them much.

 

[Ayman Ilham]

No, Grand Central are taking 10 vehicles, NOT 10 units (I.e. 2x 5 car 221's)

Ah okay, thanks for clarifying

 

[D6130]

Did any other companies bid for the renewed Cross Country franchise? Given the current situation within the industry - and its relationship with the government/DfT - I would be very surprised if they did.

 

[dk1]

Did any other companies bid for the renewed Cross Country franchise? Given the current situation within the industry - and its relationship with the government/DfT - I would be very surprised if they did.

It’s not a franchise competition just an extension. Those take years and are very expensive.

 

[waterboo]

I imagine the rather lacklustre uptake of ex AWC 221 will partially be driven by the additional costs incurred by ensuring that each unit on a double set has a Train Manager present. I can understand the economical sense of crush loading a single set as opposed to the not insignificant cost of recruiting and training additional Train Managers - unless an agreement could be negotiated per LNER for retail managers to be upskilled in basic guarding of a unit.