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Next Tory leader? - and when?? (guessing game).

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Amberley54

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Pigs will fly before May loses her seat! She had 65% of the vote in her constitiuency last year.

It is THE safest seat in the country.

Good job, as she has shown to be shocking as a campaigner out on the stump.

Our local Tories dispair of her, along with Esther McVey who central office imposed upon them when Gideon threw in the towel.
 
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pemma

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It is THE safest seat in the country.

Labour get 72-81% of votes in Liverpool Walton, or at least Steve Rotheram did. There's some opposition to Labour letting Dan Carden (McClusky's friend at Unite) take his place.

along with Esther McVey who central office imposed upon them when Gideon threw in the towel.

The same McVey who refused to turn up for the Knutsford Guardian's candidates debate or submit answers to questions in advance and also repeated her controversial comments about food banks recently. <(
 

southern442

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If the Tories lose, then I could see a few things happening:

They might appoint Boris, who would have the 'charisma' but nobody would vote for him and he would almost certainly lose in 2022. He's not the funny guy anymore and most people just see him as a not-very-funny joke and a bad idea.

They might appoint Amber Rudd who would have a chance of winning in 2022, depending on how good or bad people think Labour will have done. People like Hammond might also be contenders.
 

Howardh

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If the Tories lose,

Tories won't lose, there would have to be a meltdown in the polls this weekend. However the key is how large is their victory considering 6 weeks ago they could have won by 150 seats minimum. Anything less than 40 (in itself a good result) the country could ask has May got that "mandate" - certainly less than 20 it's a *no*.

It's been a complete waste of 6 weeks Brexit preparation time, frankly by now I'd have liked Brexit over and done with so we know where we are, and have an election on the outcome (just like after WW2). It's like waiting for a trip to the dentist...you know it's coming, just get the darned thing over with.
 

backontrack

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Theresa will go and Bojo, Rudd and Davis will all throw their hats into the ring.

I reckon it might be Justine Greening, actually. Or Gove, who has stayed out of things (not out of his own choice). The MacBeth comparisons would be everywhere.
 

Abpj17

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No one will ever trust Gove again. Rudd is too close to May - if May steps down, the party would pivot.

If they loose, they’d need to go for the populist vote which can only really mean Boris.
 

Y961 XBU

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Tories won't lose, there would have to be a meltdown in the polls this weekend. However the key is how large is their victory considering 6 weeks ago they could have won by 150 seats minimum. Anything less than 40 (in itself a good result) the country could ask has May got that "mandate" - certainly less than 20 it's a *no*.

It's been a complete waste of 6 weeks Brexit preparation time, frankly by now I'd have liked Brexit over and done with so we know where we are, and have an election on the outcome (just like after WW2). It's like waiting for a trip to the dentist...you know it's coming, just get the darned thing over with.
There are 2 different polls claiming the tories will lose, then theres tactical voting aswell..
 

southern442

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If they loose, they’d need to go for the populist vote which can only really mean Boris.

Right-wing populism is all but dead in this country (and in a lot of the world) - nobody takes Boris seriously anymore. He wasn't a great mayor, he's been a terrible foreign secretary and has said nothing but utter rubbish during the campaign. He can hardly form a coherent sentence. Some people might still support him but for the vast majority of people, the joke has worn off. Boris completely missed his chance to be PM and won't ever be, unless something very significant changes.
 

Busaholic

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In these dark times, a little levity.

I'm electing to answer this question in the form of a horse race, seeing as how the Derby was run yesterday and won by a 40-1 outsider. First, though, I'll regress to the Tory leadership race of last year, as any good psychoanalyst would.

So, to the 2016 not-so-Grand National runners and riders:-
1) BORIS (ridden by Michael Gove) was pulled out of the race with minutes to go when Gove announced he couldn't be trusted to run the race the right way round, but Gove had concluded that he (Gove) could win the race without the aid of a horse beneath him, especially with his indomitable wife Sarah Vine pursuing him all the way with a birch whip to encourage him. He managed to haul himself over a couple of fences before he realised it was futile.
2) FOXHUNTER was first to enter the fray, as ever, but was also the first to depart, as ever, a fall at the first fence. It was said that hunting horns were used in the crowd to distract him.
3) CRABBPOT was a surprise entry from Wales, the rumour being that he was only entered in order to mix with the fillies. Disappeared without trace having fallen at the second fence.
4) LEAD BALLOON came into the race with a lot of backing and claims of previous race successes, but on scrutiny these turned out to be fantasies or magnified out of all proportion. Nevertheless, she was cantering towards the finish and had one last fence to jump when, suddenly, she crashed into it and has never been the same since. She was recently found by 'Newsnight's John Sweeney grazing on the foreshore near Penzance next to the local Tory MP candidate.
5) VICAR'S DAUGHTER (ridden by a rather reluctant Philip Hammond) was trotting along quietly showing a good pair of (kitten) heels when she suddenly realised Lead Balloon had fallen and all she had to do was make the tape. Hammond had been promised the earth if he got her home in first place, but it all seems to have gone sour.

Now to some of the possible 2017 entrants:-
BORIS still has a tremendous fan club, but then so does Barry Manilow for equally mysterious reasons. Will definitely not be ridden by Gove, though.
FALLIBLE (previously known as INFALLIBLE) has recently perfected the art of putting his hoof into his mouth, though he appears not to be aware of it. The only horse that needs no grooming as he has always been self-preening.
FOREVER AMBER has the look of a thoroughbred, it is said, but her sireing may well come under scrutiny should she get near the winning post, so could be another LEAD BALLOON.
DAMIAN could only win if the going was very, very, very, very wet, but even then he'd probably not slip over the winning line.
 
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Merseysider

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Howardh said:
Next Tory leader?
I'd put my money on someone representing core Conservative values; a Tory through and through, a person who epitomises everything the Tories stand for.

Someone like Sauron, or Lord Voldemort.

Maybe even Morgoth The Corrupter, Dark Power of The North, Tyrant and Master of Lies.

But in all seriousness, I'm thinking it's gonna be either Hammond or Rudd
 

DarloRich

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I'd put my money on someone representing core Conservative values; a Tory through and through, a person who epitomises everything the Tories stand for.

Someone like Sauron, or Lord Voldemort.

Maybe even Morgoth The Corrupter, Dark Power of The North, Tyrant and Master of Lies.

But in all seriousness, I'm thinking it's gonna be either Hammond or Rudd

no - Morgoth is just too Thatcherite. Voldermort looks odd (think John Redwood) and Sauron would just be a puppet. He would be dragged right by the Morgothists.

I would go for Khan Noonien Singh( but then he has a foreign name and that wont play well) or Hans Landa ( European :-x ) but think that Nurse Ratched might be in with a chance but surely Gordon Gecko would be the perfect candidate. ;)
 
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Blindtraveler

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Nowhere near enough to a Pacer :(
I have kept quiet on this thread til now but with poling day nearly here I will say that to my mind almost anything is better than the tories so I hope they crash and burn and we can I am quite sure deal with whatever we have left to form a government. A strong one it wil not be but the words and actions of many key figures in that party both now and since 2010 have been alarming and have changed, ruined and sometimes ended the lives of so many with their cuts and revised rules. Granted the welfare bill needed looking at but shafting the disabled, hurting the poor and generally making life changing alterations was not the way.

In more recent times, I was and still am pro brexit but May's brexit stratogy of hard lime no give no compromise is not mine and I want us to be able to bow out without making life tough for ourselves in future
 

RichmondCommu

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If the Tories lose, then I could see a few things happening:

They might appoint Boris, who would have the 'charisma' but nobody would vote for him and he would almost certainly lose in 2022. He's not the funny guy anymore and most people just see him as a not-very-funny joke and a bad idea.

They might appoint Amber Rudd who would have a chance of winning in 2022, depending on how good or bad people think Labour will have done. People like Hammond might also be contenders.

I really sorry to say this but the Conservatives will win with a comfortable majority.
 

backontrack

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Oh and next leader, I vote Father Jack Hacket!

article-0-07DB903A000005DC-421_634x286.jpg


Airbrushed for change.

FATHER DOUGAL McGUIRE: "Are you thinking what we're thinking?"
 

Yew

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I really sorry to say this but the Conservatives will win with a comfortable majority.

Prediciting the future? Can I have next weeks lottery numbers whilst you're at it? :D


I'd potentially be looking towards Rudd, or a relative outsider who interviews well?
 

Tracked

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Hadn't noticed this til now, but I was on about this at work earlier; I think she'll win the election, probably with a decent majority, but will be gone by the next election.

Not sure who'd replace her though.
 

RichmondCommu

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Prediciting the future? Can I have next weeks lottery numbers whilst you're at it? :D

Yes I am, and with absolutely certainty. I don't know what next weeks lottery numbers will be but I do know Mrs May will win a comfortable majority.
 
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Senex

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How long will May last if the majority is no larger than in the previous parliament, or a negative one so that she has to rely on the support of the Ulster Unionists?
 

backontrack

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How long will May last if the majority is no larger than in the previous parliament, or a negative one so that she has to rely on the support of the Ulster Unionists?

If both the UUP and DUP split the unionist vote, then Theresa may not be able to enter into a coalition with just one of them. And I sincerely doubt that they'd want to combine...Theresa would have to turn to the Purple Fruitcake Party, who are (pub quiz answer!) the only main GB party to also stand in Northern Ireland.

The difficult for Labour is that they are 97 seats behind a majority. Even if they do make gains, they'd likely need the support of the SNP (around 45-50 seats).

Let's say these are the totals:

Labour 255
SNP 49
Lib Dems 14
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 2

That adds up to 323. So still three seats off a majority.

The Lib Dems said they wouldn't enter a coalition...but who believes them here?
 
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pemma

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The Lib Dems said they wouldn't enter a coalition...but who believes them here?

I think they're claim circumstances have changed if Corbyn is replaced by a leader who wants to work to keep the UK in the single market or if Corbyn changes his mind about the single market.
 

Senex

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I think they're claim circumstances have changed if Corbyn is replaced by a leader who wants to work to keep the UK in the single market or if Corbyn changes his mind about the single market.
But if that scenario comes about, it will have been Corbyn pretty well singlehandedly who brought the Labour success about. There has been hardly any presence of most of the shadow cabinet, and of those who have been seen, Abbott has trailed disaster wherever she went. Why should he be replaced?

Which is more likely, a formal coalition, or an agreement that the other parties will support those elements of Labour policy with which they agree? And the price for an agreement with the LibDems and the SNP could be that Corbyn changes his views on the single market.
 

RichmondCommu

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If both the UUP and DUP split the unionist vote, then Theresa may not be able to enter into a coalition with just one of them. And I sincerely doubt that they'd want to combine...Theresa would have to turn to the Purple Fruitcake Party, who are (pub quiz answer!) the only main GB party to also stand in Northern Ireland.

The difficult for Labour is that they are 97 seats behind a majority. Even if they do make gains, they'd likely need the support of the SNP (around 45-50 seats).

Let's say these are the totals:

Labour 255
SNP 49
Lib Dems 14
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 2

That adds up to 323. So still three seats off a majority.

The Lib Dems said they wouldn't enter a coalition...but who believes them here?

That's one heck of an assumption on those Labour gains, at least in my opinion.
 
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