Nicola Sturgeon to resign as First Minister of Scotland, Humza Yousaf elected as new First Minister.

[Cloud Strife]

If you looks at virtually every other country that has achieved independence from its larger neighbour (eg from Cloud Strife’s Estonian example to most recently South Sudan) for good or for ill these countries have set up their own currencies within a matter of months or at most a handful of years.

There are some different examples, of course. Montenegro started to use the DM alongside the Yugoslav dinar in 1999 before dropping the dinar in late 2000. They then switched to the Euro quite painlessly, and despite the lack of an agreement with the ECB, Montenegro is still quite successfully using it with zero discussion about their own currency.

Going back, Ireland stuck with the Sterling area and later peg until 1979, even though the Irish government was relatively hostile towards the UK throughout most of the 20th century. Namibia also stuck with the South African rand for 3 years from 1990 to 1993. I think Australia and New Zealand also stuck with Sterling after they gained independence?

But yes, there are other examples, such as the Czechoslovak koruna, which collapsed within what, 5 weeks or so of the Velvet Divorce?

I think the unprecedented thing here is that there aren't many examples of wealthy countries declaring independence, so it's relatively uncharted waters.

 

[Noddy]

There are some different examples, of course. Montenegro started to use the DM alongside the Yugoslav dinar in 1999 before dropping the dinar in late 2000. They then switched to the Euro quite painlessly, and despite the lack of an agreement with the ECB, Montenegro is still quite successfully using it with zero discussion about their own currency.

Going back, Ireland stuck with the Sterling area and later peg until 1979, even though the Irish government was relatively hostile towards the UK throughout most of the 20th century. Namibia also stuck with the South African rand for 3 years from 1990 to 1993. I think Australia and New Zealand also stuck with Sterling after they gained independence?

But yes, there are other examples, such as the Czechoslovak koruna, which collapsed within what, 5 weeks or so of the Velvet Divorce?

I think the unprecedented thing here is that there aren't many examples of wealthy countries declaring independence, so it's relatively uncharted waters.

Apologies-I did mean to caveat my previous statement with the modern era-ie last 30-40 years. And yes even here there are other examples. Some tiny (by population) Pacific island nations (eg Micronesia) have continued to use the US dollar after independence from the US (although they were really only in US (/UN) control after having been removed from Japanese control in the 1940s). East Timor setup its own currency but has never introduced it, instead adopting the US dollar as its de facto currency.

In terms of Ireland it is an old example and the nature of modern local, international, and global economics make comparisons difficult. However, I would also argue that it’s a perfect example of what not to do economically after independence (I’m the grandchild of Irish emigrants who were raised in the Free State and left because they had no jobs and no money). It only became economically successful after it detached the punt from the pound in the 1970s and became a corporate tax haven.

Going back to the modern era there are some examples where introducing a currency hasn’t been successful but there are plenty of examples where it has been. You say we are in uncharted territory because Scotland would be the first rich country but I would argue that Scotland could use Slovenia as example/template, albeit it’s only around half the size by population. It was one of the richest, most productive parts of Yugoslavia, it left (before the civil war caused it any significant economic damage) setting up and introducing its own currency within a handful of months, and was economically stable and successful to point it was able to join the Euro in 2007 (becoming the first Eastern European country to do so). If Slovenia (and all the other perfectly successful countries in Eastern Europe) can do it why doesn’t the SNP/Scotland Government have the self confidence to do it? Are they trying to hide something because I can see plenty of examples where setting up your own currency has been successful, but absolutely no examples (outside of micro-nations) where doing what the SNP are proposing has been successful (eg Ireland). As I said previously the SNP ministers love to talk about not having the economic levers to change Scotland but not having control over your own currency is extremely problematic, especially if that country is one policy makers have spent a decade or more politically and economically fighting and trying to leave (unlike Montenegro which is doing the complete opposite and trying to align itself with the EU/Eurozone).

Anyway that’s gone off topic a bit. The first opinion poll (published by Savanta) since Yousaf became leader doesn’t make great reading for the SNP although I thinks it’s too early to tell as they were already on the slide. It will be interesting if there is a by-election in Rutherglen.

 

[GusB]

Anyway that’s gone off topic a bit. The first opinion poll (published by Savanta) since Yousaf became leader doesn’t make great reading for the SNP although I thinks it’s too early to tell as they were already on the slide. It will be interesting if there is a by-election in Rutherglen.

I'm glad that somebody has made an attempt to bring the thread back on topic!

I'm of the opinion that we should give Yousaf a chance. He wasn't my first choice for SNP leader, but nor were Forbes or Regan. If I was a member of the SNP I would have probably spoiled my ballot paper. However, we are where we are. Let's give him a chance to prove himself. He has big heels to fill, after all!

 

[Falcon1200]

Let's give him a chance to prove himself.

Humza Yousaf has already had multiple chances to prove himself, in roles important but less demanding than First Minister, and was not exactly a rip-roaring success in any of them.

 

[takno]

I'm glad that somebody has made an attempt to bring the thread back on topic!

I'm of the opinion that we should give Yousaf a chance. He wasn't my first choice for SNP leader, but nor were Forbes or Regan. If I was a member of the SNP I would have probably spoiled my ballot paper. However, we are where we are. Let's give him a chance to prove himself. He has big heels to fill, after all!

I don't see as we've got much choice about whether he gets to prove himself or not. I won't pretend to be any happier about him than the squatter at number 10 though.

 

[Fleetmaster]

He's already proved himself. Elected on a narrow majority be packed his cabinet with loyalists and one independent who he rewarded for failure with the drugs brief.

 

[McRhu]

Looks like somebody's shown their appreciation already... https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bute-house-lockdown-police-cordon-29608577

 

[D6130]

Looks like somebody's shown their appreciation already... https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bute-house-lockdown-police-cordon-29608577

Probably just an empty kebab wrapper. It is Saturday night after all!

 

[McRhu]

Probably not the last. I wonder if Humza was the kebab thrower's first choice?

 

[Cloud Strife]

The first opinion poll (published by Savanta) since Yousaf became leader doesn’t make great reading for the SNP although I thinks it’s too early to tell as they were already on the slide. It will be interesting if there is a by-election in Rutherglen.

Seats:

SNP: 46
Labour: 42
Tories: 24
Greens: 10
Lib Dems: 7

Now this would be an interesting result politically. Let's run a hypothetical First Minister nomination process to see what comes out:

First round:

SNP: 46
Labour: 42
Tories: 24
Greens: 10
Lib Dems: 7 (candidate eliminated)

Second Round:

Labour: 49
SNP: 46
Tories: 24
Greens: 10 (candidate eliminated)

Third Round:

SNP: 56
Labour: 49
Tories: 24 (candidate eliminated)

We then go to a fourth round, with the Tories holding the decisive vote. If we assume that the Tories have lost in the General Election, what do they do? If they abstain here, the SNP have a fifth term. But can they really support a very weak minority Labour government which would need Tory support to pass legislation, otherwise it would be defeated by the SNP+Greens? Labour themselves may not want to be dependent on the Tories for their administration, especially if they're ruling in London.

There is a possibility that Labour could take the 10 Green votes, which would allow them to put together a minority Lab/Lib/Green coalition that couldn't be blocked without the SNP and Tories agreeing to do so. But I'm not convinced that many members of the Greens would accept such a scenario, unless there was an agreement to devolve more powers to Scotland within the first few months of the administration.

The other possibility is that we see a SNP/Labour administration founded with the explicit intention to deliver devo-max to Scotland under a UK Labour government. Seems a bit too far fetched to me, especially given that there's no real history of Lab/SNP cooperation.

The final possibility is that Labour simply agree to step aside here in exchange for the Presiding Officer job in the Scottish Parliament. They would still be able to block the SNP with the Tories if needs be (41+24 gives a majority in Holyrood), while holding the Presiding Officer job means that they control the business of parliament.

Either way, intriguing stuff.

 

[Noddy]

Seats:

SNP: 46
Labour: 42
Tories: 24
Greens: 10
Lib Dems: 7

Now this would be an interesting result politically. Let's run a hypothetical First Minister nomination process to see what comes out:

First round:

SNP: 46
Labour: 42
Tories: 24
Greens: 10
Lib Dems: 7 (candidate eliminated)

Second Round:

Labour: 49
SNP: 46
Tories: 24
Greens: 10 (candidate eliminated)

Third Round:

SNP: 56
Labour: 49
Tories: 24 (candidate eliminated)

We then go to a fourth round, with the Tories holding the decisive vote. If we assume that the Tories have lost in the General Election, what do they do? If they abstain here, the SNP have a fifth term. But can they really support a very weak minority Labour government which would need Tory support to pass legislation, otherwise it would be defeated by the SNP+Greens? Labour themselves may not want to be dependent on the Tories for their administration, especially if they're ruling in London.

There is a possibility that Labour could take the 10 Green votes, which would allow them to put together a minority Lab/Lib/Green coalition that couldn't be blocked without the SNP and Tories agreeing to do so. But I'm not convinced that many members of the Greens would accept such a scenario, unless there was an agreement to devolve more powers to Scotland within the first few months of the administration.

The other possibility is that we see a SNP/Labour administration founded with the explicit intention to deliver devo-max to Scotland under a UK Labour government. Seems a bit too far fetched to me, especially given that there's no real history of Lab/SNP cooperation.

The final possibility is that Labour simply agree to step aside here in exchange for the Presiding Officer job in the Scottish Parliament. They would still be able to block the SNP with the Tories if needs be (41+24 gives a majority in Holyrood), while holding the Presiding Officer job means that they control the business of parliament.

Either way, intriguing stuff.

He’s been in post less than a week so it’s probably a bit early to be analysing an election three years away! However (cos it it’s fun!), you’ve assumed that the Lib Dem and Green votes transfer eg what happens if the SNP have a disastrous Westminster election (some point in the next 18 months) and replace Yousaf with Forbes (who is widely seen as popular with voters)? Cannot for the life of me see the Greens voting with the SNP then. In my view there is also an unholy alliance between the SNP and Tories that benefits them both at the expense of Labour, so I don’t think the Tories would back a Labour leader.

 

[Fleetmaster]

If we assume that the Tories have lost in the General Election,

I think the Tories will be quite hopeful of a win if Labour do this badly in Scotland.

And a chamber as divided as that is a recipe for going nowhere fast, which is exactly what the Tories want from Scottish politics.

 

[Noddy]

I think the Tories will be quite hopeful of a win if Labour do this badly in Scotland.

And a chamber as divided as that is a recipe for going nowhere fast, which is exactly what the Tories want from Scottish politics.

Some would say going nowhere fast is the mantra of the SNP!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Cannot for the life of me see the Greens voting with the SNP then.

Absolutely, it wouldn't happen. The SNP might put up a compromise FM in this case, while the SNP would be led by Forbes. But I think that if the SNP did decide to go with her, then the Greens would abstain in further voting rounds.

In my view there is also an unholy alliance between the SNP and Tories that benefits them both at the expense of Labour, so I don’t think the Tories would back a Labour leader.

Absolutely yes. The first Salmond government in 2007 was successful because they benefitted from the Tories adopting a pragmatic view towards the administration. Goldie's work there was what led the Tories to becoming the second party in 2016, and now Labour are realising that cooperating with the SNP rather than trying to fight them constantly is the way forward. I'd also argue that the Tories have long accepted that they're not going to form part of a Holyrood government, hence it's better for them to have the SNP in power as they can present themselves as a clear alternative in local elections.

I think, from my perspective, the best government that Scotland has ever had was the 2007-2011 one. The two cabinets were full of political heavyweights, and the nature of that parliament meant that the SNP had to find support across the political spectrum. While I support Yousaf, it's clear that his cabinet is not a strong one.

And a chamber as divided as that is a recipe for going nowhere fast, which is exactly what the Tories want from Scottish politics.

Not necessarily so. The 2007-2011 parliament worked very well, and the SNP (and the Tories!) are very good at consensus politics in Scotland.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Wonder what Sturgeon new what was coming down the pipe which suddenly saw her resign

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823

The husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has been arrested in connection with an investigation into Scottish National Party finances.

Peter Murrell, 58, was taken into police custody on Wednesday morning.
Police Scotland said officers were carrying out searches at "a number of addresses as part of the investigation".

 

[duncanp]

Wonder what Sturgeon new what was coming down the pipe which suddenly saw her resign

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823

Oh dear, the brown stuff has really hit the fan, hasn't it?

 

[Stathern Jc]

Will we hear the Trumpian defence that this is all politically motivated?

 

[AlterEgo]

Wonder what Sturgeon new what was coming down the pipe which suddenly saw her resign

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823

Does make you wonder.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh dear, the brown stuff has really hit the fan, hasn't it?

I wonder if we're about to find out the real reason for her snap resignation?

 

[brad465]

Don't know if the thread about when it will all go wrong for the SNP is still open, but either way I think we know the answer...

 

[SargeNpton]

Wonder what Sturgeon new what was coming down the pipe which suddenly saw her resign

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823

Well, if she reads Private Eye she would have been aware of the possibility. PE has been reporting on the SNP's finances over the last few months - the overall state of them, the ring-fencing of the IndyRef2 donations, and her husband's loan to the party.

 

[duncanp]

Conveniently, Madam was "..not at home.." when the police arrived.

Still, at least the police were good enough to empty her bins for her.

SNP latest news: Nicola Sturgeon 'not at home when police sealed off property'

Nicola Sturgeon was not present when police arrived to seal off her property following the arrest of her husband Peter Murrell, eyewitnesses said.

www.telegraph.co.uk

SNP latest news: Nicola Sturgeon 'not at home when police sealed off property

Nicola Sturgeon was not present when police arrived to seal off her property following the arrest of her husband Peter Murrell, eyewitnesses said.

It is understood the former First Minister left her home on Glasgow's outskirts in a black coloured Volvo shortly before officers erected an evidence tent in a front garden and taped off the detached property.

The property is one of a number of searches being carried out by police investigating the Scottish National Party's funding and finances.

Witnesses say six Police Scotland officers are standing guard at the couple's home during the search which has included bins in a back garden.

Mr Murrell remains in police custody.

Police officer puts out couple's bins​

It may not be their most pressing concern today, but Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell's bin has been emptied in their absence, reports Daniel Sanderson.
It is bin collection day on their normally quiet cul-de-sac, with the Glasgow Council refuse lorry having to navigate the three huge police vans involved in the unprecedented raid.
Ms Sturgeon's green wheelie bin had been left on her front lawn in anticipation of collection, but found itself behind blue and white police tape.
However, a police Scotland officer wheeled it around the cordon, handing it over to binmen, before placing it back on the manicured lawn.
Police have put down plastic blocks to avoid damaging the grass as they walk back and forth from their van.

 

[AlterEgo]

On Twitter various sources have posted pictures of the police digging up her back garden. Tasty stuff.

 

[duncanp]

On Twitter various sources have posted pictures of the police digging up her back garden. Tasty stuff.

I bet Alex Salmond is laughing his head off.

 

[GS250]

Oh Dear....no one has been found guilty yet though so I suppose we should not judge until judgement is passed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I bet Alex Salmond is laughing his head off.

Or quaking, in case he himself has some skeletons in his proverbial closet...

 

[JamesT]

Or quaking, in case he himself has some skeletons in his proverbial closet...

I would have thought if there was anything that could be pinned on him that would have been tried with/instead of the sexual assault allegations?

 

[birchesgreen]

On Twitter various sources have posted pictures of the police digging up her back garden. Tasty stuff.

When did the Sturgeons turn into Fred and Rose West?

Do people in these situations (and from this social class) usually bury incriminating evidence in the back garden?

 

[telstarbox]

Is it the rest of the Brinks Mat gold?

 

[westv]

I really hope this helps to push thoughts of Scottish independence as far into the future as possible.