Northern Powerhouse Rail / HS3 Timeline and Ideas

[HSTEd]

But the track geometry will not allow, and the only way you are getting a straight route through the pennines is to go under them.

You need so much new track there is little point using the existing routes.
36 miles could be achieved in 15 minutes or so.

 

[snowball]

But there is no longer any northern HS2 access for the Sheffield station.

That's part of what I was referring to in #53. But it's a bit premature to state that as a fact. A link could emerge near South Kirkby, even if HS2 Ltd make sure the money for it comes from some other pot than theirs. Sheffield Council, in treating the recent change as a victory, seem to be working on the assumption that classic compatible trains will be able to head out of Sheffield and rejoin HS2 northwards.

The details are all up in the air at the moment. Some clarification is due in the autumn when the HS3/NPR proposals are published at the next level of detail.

 

[J-2739]

But the track geometry will not allow, and the only way you are getting a straight route through the pennines is to go under them.

You need so much new track there is little point using the existing routes.
36 miles could be achieved in 15 minutes or so.

Going through them will require deep bore tunnels and therefore would add an immense cost the whole project as well.

 

[HSTEd]

Going through them will require deep bore tunnels and therefore would add an immense cost the whole project as well.

If it is just a small upgrade, then yes.
But if this is a new build line then the tunnels wouldn't cost that much.

 

[Senex]

Listening to what information is being posted here, HS3 sounds to be a high-speed commuter service.

Nobody seems to know yet whether what is wanted is indeed just a high-speed commuter service or a genuine fast link between the cities of Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds, and Newcastle.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Going through them will require deep bore tunnels and therefore would add an immense cost the whole project as well.

Other countries have found it possible. Think back to what the Italians did between Bologna and Florence in the inter-war period.

 

[TBY-Paul]

It's rapidly shaping up that HS3 will be a "higher speed" northern network of routes, part of which are likely to improve the existing TransPennine route between Leeds and Manchester, part will take advantage of the HS2 network and part will see existing sections of the ECML, Hope Valley, Calder Valley and probably several other existing routes with new bits added.

Yep, Cheap & Cheerful, without doing it right, and not much gain to parts outside the main Manchester-Leeds Core.

We appear to have gone from a grand vision for HS2, to a watered down version that doesn't deliver much for the North, and all cleverly done by delegating responsibility for the Northern End of HS2 to the "Northern Powerhouse" in the form of HS3.

 

[HSTEd]

Whats wrong with a high speed commuter service?
It would build ridership and thus increase resources available for the corridors concerned?

 

[Haydn1971]

Yep, Cheap & Cheerful, without doing it right, and not much gain to parts outside the main Manchester-Leeds Core.



We appear to have gone from a grand vision for HS2, to a watered down version that doesn't deliver much for the North, and all cleverly done by delegating responsibility for the Northern End of HS2 to the "Northern Powerhouse" in the form of HS3.

To be fair, we do not know that for sure yet - the long term impact/benefit of brexit will form part of the analysis for "HS3/Northern whatever" and may end up being much more than it looks now

 

[HSTEd]

Ofcourse it is possible to cross the Pennines without a tunnel if you can ascend at 2.5%-4.0% and have access to cheap earthmoving equipment. However political concerns will require massive tunnelling, just as they required otherwise unnecessary tunnels in the Chilterns.

 

[J-2739]

Ofcourse it is possible to cross the Pennines without a tunnel if you can ascend at 2.5%-4.0% and have access to cheap earthmoving equipment. However political concerns will require massive tunnelling, just as they required otherwise unnecessary tunnels in the Chilterns.

Plus, navigating the Pennines without tunnels would result in a very bendy route, reducing the 'high speeds of 225km/h' quite sharp.

 

[thejuggler]

I'm at pains to understand how you could get a cost effective high speed service between Leeds and Bradford, which then continues to Manchester. The cost would be immense.

 

[J-2739]

I'm at pains to understand how you could get a cost effective high speed service between Leeds and Bradford, which then continues to Manchester. The cost would be immense.

Like MidlandMainlie said, there's no such exact route. But say, if it was your idea that it was based on, I suppose it could be a two branch, one to Leeds, one to Bradford. Or It could be a circular route going through major cities of Yorkshire.

 

[nerd]

As Midland says, we don't know yet, but one idea was a route in the Woodhead corridor, from which trains from Manchester could then turn either north along HS2 for Leeds, or south along HS2 for Sheffield. This is what WatcherZero and I were alluding to by a route serving both Leeds and Sheffield.

But as you say; a Woodhead tunnle alignment would no longer appear feasible if the main HS2 Phase 2 arm is relocated further east.

The infrastructure Commission did put a range of broad costed options for upgrading between Leeds and Manchester - though I think these have since been removed. The big gains in time saved would have arisen from a new line between Huddersfield and Leeds.

 

[TBY-Paul]

To be fair, we do not know that for sure yet - the long term impact/benefit of brexit will form part of the analysis for "HS3/Northern whatever" and may end up being much more than it looks now

I agree, we don't know for sure. But some of the things being put forward would suggest that.

As an example. In the original reports, a HS2 line was envisioned to go as far as Newcastle (and maybe beyond), with the suggestion that if a new line was built to Newcastle the opportunity to build a "Tees-valley Interchange" should be included.

The Northern Powerhouse devolution deal for a combined Tees Valley Authority includes the stipulation that Darlington Station should be HS2 ready.

Making Darlington Station"HS2 ready" would suggest that the North East is falling into the category of, as you put it.

"HS3 will be a "higher speed" northern network of routes"

By removing the stated aim of building a new HS2 line to Newcastle, with a "Tees Valley Interchange" Station. Teesside/Tees Valley, once again, would appear to be being sacrificed for the greater good of the rail network.

 

[nerd]

I agree, we don't know for sure. But some of the things being put forward would suggest that.

As an example. In the original reports, a HS2 line was envisioned to go as far as Newcastle (and maybe beyond), with the suggestion that if a new line was built to Newcastle the opportunity to build a "Tees-valley Interchange" should be included.

The Northern Powerhouse devolution deal for a combined Tees Valley Authority includes the stipulation that Darlington Station should be HS2 ready.

Making Darlington Station"HS2 ready" would suggest that the North East is falling into the category of, as you put it.

"HS3 will be a "higher speed" northern network of routes"

By removing the stated aim of building a new HS2 line to Newcastle, with a "Tees Valley Interchange" Station. Teesside/Tees Valley, once again, would appear to be being sacrificed for the greater good of the rail network.

The option of taking a newbuild line all the way to Newcastle would make sense if a captive eastside HSR line to Scotland had been envisaged. More recent HS2 reports make it clear that the Scots HSR service is nore likely to take the westside route - and not to be captive all the way.

Similar considerations would appear to be applied in respect of the North East - higher speeds achieve through limited upgrade lines (maybe using Leamside for example) rather than a complete new line all the way.

As for Darlington, it is more than possible that the town would benefit much more from having classic compatible HSR services stopping in the middle of town, than it would from a 'Tees-valley interchange' out in the sticks. On which see Sheffield's unbounded rejoicing at exchanging the possibility of a captive station at Meadowhall for classic-compatible services to Midland.

 

[HSTEd]

Plus, navigating the Pennines without tunnels would result in a very bendy route, reducing the 'high speeds of 225km/h' quite sharp.

Well it wouldn't - but that particular area of the Pennines will not look much like it did before afterwards.
You would end up with huge embankments and cuttings with a long ~2.5+% drags up each slope.

Balancing speed for an AGV11 at 3.5% is about 180km/h, at 2.0% it is about 260km/h.
Ofcourse with all axles motored Shinkansen style stock you will likely be able to sustain higher speeds up slopes. And with run-ups you can ascend more quickly than that.

 

[158756]

Any ideas of this are now surely dead, with Theresa May today axing the so called Northern Powerhouse, with the attention instead to be spread across the whole country.

Will even HS2 ever happen north of Birmingham?

 

[HSTEd]

She won't axe HS2 - she has spent all her political capital on the now almost inevitable axing of Hinkley Point.
But HS3 is probably dead - "helping every city" is just another way of saying "do nothing".

 

[MidlandMainlie]

She won't axe HS2 - she has spent all her political capital on the now almost inevitable axing of Hinkley Point.
But HS3 is probably dead - "helping every city" is just another way of saying "do nothing".

Of the three big projects, HS2, 3rd runway at Heathrow and Hinkley point C, I suspect that only HS2 will go ahead. Hinkley will be killed off because of the ridiculous cost of electricity and security concerns around Chineese investment. The third runway at Heathrow I think is doubtful and Gatwick expansion will be given the go ahead instead because Theresa May's constituency of Maidenhead is under the flight paths plus there are a couple of prominent anti-Heathrow expansion backers in cabinet, not just Borris Johnson but Justine Greening as Education Secretary who was moved by Cameron from transport because of her opposition to Heathrow expansion. On the basis that two of the three projects are not going ahead the third (HS2) probably will because it would send a very bad message about how open for Bisuniess Britain is post Brexit.

On the Northern Powerhouse I suspect the term itself is dead, but the underlying policies of devolving power and improving transport links/HS3 will continue. Any HS3 construction is 10-15 years away anyway.

 

[nerd]

Of the three big projects, HS2, 3rd runway at Heathrow and Hinkley point C, I suspect that only HS2 will go ahead. Hinkley will be killed off because of the ridiculous cost of electricity and security concerns around Chineese investment. The third runway at Heathrow I think is doubtful and Gatwick expansion will be given the go ahead instead because Theresa May's constituency of Maidenhead is under the flight paths plus there are a couple of prominent anti-Heathrow expansion backers in cabinet, not just Borris Johnson but Justine Greening as Education Secretary who was moved by Cameron from transport because of her opposition to Heathrow expansion. On the basis that two of the three projects are not going ahead the third (HS2) probably will because it would send a very bad message about how open for Bisuniess Britain is post Brexit.

On the Northern Powerhouse I suspect the term itself is dead, but the underlying policies of devolving power and improving transport links/HS3 will continue. Any HS3 construction is 10-15 years away anyway.

I think you are spot on in all your speculations MM.

May has made an activist industrial strategy for productivity growth outside London a major priority. I don't see it at all as 'doing nothing'.

But certainly the Northern Powerhouse rhetoric will go (and good riddance) - as will anything tarred with the Osborne brush. Some of the briefing seems to suggest a deliberate turning away from 'concentration on investment in Manchester'. But then pretty well none of the recent proposed priorities for NPR/HS3 investment were in Manchester - Sheffield to Leeds; Liverpool to Manchester Airport; Leeds to Huddersfield; Hull to Leeds.

The key question is not whether the new strategy will direct investment into different locations; but whether there will be a turning away from the emphasis on intercity rail links across the North towards, maybe, local road schemes and commuter public transport investment?

 

[HSTEd]

If she really cared about industrial strategy should would tear up the Hinkley Point deal, issue £18bn in long term (50+ year index linked) gilts and buy the plant outright.

 

[158756]

May has made an activist industrial strategy for productivity growth outside London a major priority. I don't see it at all as 'doing nothing'.

But certainly the Northern Powerhouse rhetoric will go (and good riddance) - as will anything tarred with the Osborne brush. Some of the briefing seems to suggest a deliberate turning away from 'concentration on investment in Manchester'. But then pretty well none of the recent proposed priorities for NPR/HS3 investment were in Manchester - Sheffield to Leeds; Liverpool to Manchester Airport; Leeds to Huddersfield; Hull to Leeds.

The key question is not whether the new strategy will direct investment into different locations; but whether there will be a turning away from the emphasis on intercity rail links across the North towards, maybe, local road schemes and commuter public transport investment?

In reality though, no government is ever going to spend the money for anything like what has been talked about for the Northern Powerhouse across the whole country.It might not be doing nothing, but it will be spread so thinly that no one will notice.

All those priorities will now be forgotten, whether they were in Manchester or not. Any improvement for Leeds - Hull is now tarred with the brush of Osborne and 'investment in Manchester'. If there is a genuine desire to reduce investment in Manchester, HS2's western leg is the obvious(only?) example. Whatever you thought of the Northern Powerhouse, the North outside Manchester isn't going to get more crumbs by having to compete for them with Birmingham and Cornwall.

They've already said the new strategy will direct investment to different locations- everywhere outside the South East, rather than ' the North'. It's unlikely the pot of money will increase, so by the time every town in the country has got a new bus lane there won't be enough pennies left over for any rail schemes, commuter or intercity.

 

[swt_passenger]

Any ideas of this are now surely dead, with Theresa May today axing the so called Northern Powerhouse, with the attention instead to be spread across the whole country.

Have you a link to this announcement?

 

[nerd]

In reality though, no government is ever going to spend the money for anything like what has been talked about for the Northern Powerhouse across the whole country.It might not be doing nothing, but it will be spread so thinly that no one will notice.

All those priorities will now be forgotten, whether they were in Manchester or not. Any improvement for Leeds - Hull is now tarred with the brush of Osborne and 'investment in Manchester'. If there is a genuine desire to reduce investment in Manchester, HS2's western leg is the obvious(only?) example. Whatever you thought of the Northern Powerhouse, the North outside Manchester isn't going to get more crumbs by having to compete for them with Birmingham and Cornwall.

They've already said the new strategy will direct investment to different locations- everywhere outside the South East, rather than ' the North'. It's unlikely the pot of money will increase, so by the time every town in the country has got a new bus lane there won't be enough pennies left over for any rail schemes, commuter or intercity.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c04690ae-58dd-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.html#axzz4GGPxVfdC

doesn't read like a proposal to spread investment across the country; more like targetted investment towards identified opportunities for regional productivity growth.

The prime minister chaired the first meeting of her industrial strategy committee on Tuesday afternoon, having already caused waves with an abrupt decision to review plans for an £18bn nuclear plant at Hinkley Point.

The committee, comprising the prime minister and 11 secretaries of state, is charged with building an economy that works for “everyone, not just the privileged few”.

Her reluctance to endorse the Northern Powerhouse explicitly had led to speculation that she might discard a central part of Mr Osborne’s legacy. However, in a sign of continuity, Neil O’Brien, a former special adviser on devolution to Mr Osborne, is to join the Number 10 policy unit to lead its work on industrial strategy.

In the meeting, Greg Clark, the business secretary, said that the government should “do more to support cities outside London” — in effect a rebuke to the concept of a Northern Powerhouse centred around Manchester.

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, told ministers that halving the productivity gap between London and the south-east and the rest of the UK would increase gross domestic product by 9 per cent.

Productivity in the UK has stagnated since the financial crisis, with declines in areas such as the north-west, south-west and Northern Ireland.

 

[HSTEd]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c04690ae-58dd-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.html#axzz4GGPxVfdC

doesn't read like a proposal to spread investment across the country; more like targetted investment towards identified opportunities for regional productivity growth.

Which means years of a commission to decide where these opportunities are in preparation for a report to be made before the election that she can use for political capital.

The idea of spending any money this decade is dead - it died with Osborne's career and Hinkley Point.

 

[nerd]

Which means years of a commission to decide where these opportunities are in preparation for a report to be made before the election that she can use for political capital.

The idea of spending any money this decade is dead - it died with Osborne's career and Hinkley Point.

Not sure how you argue that HSTed.

Not spending money on Hinkley Point potentially makes sums available for other investments. Equally abandoning Osborne's austerity targets.

This is shaping up as both an activist and interventionist administration; rejecting all of Osborne austerity, Thatcher neoliberalism and Daily Mail populism.

What will be interesting, is whether is also rejects the Osborne devolution agenda - elected mayors etc. Active interventionism needs partners, and the traditional Tory way is to look for some sort of local business forum to generate some sort of devolved legitimacy. But local business most places now offers little of substance. So either they recreate the sort of regional enterprise structures that they disbanded in 2010 (unlikely in my view) or they talk with Osborne's devolved municipal structures.

 

[HSTEd]

Not spending money on Hinkley Point potentially makes sums available for other investments. Equally abandoning Osborne's austerity targets.

The one advantage of the eternal meerkat mechanism being used for Hinkley Point is that no public money is involved. I think that is a stupid plan but there it is.

This is shaping up as both an activist and interventionist administration; rejecting all of Osborne austerity, Thatcher neoliberalism and Daily Mail populism.

Really - that is not the vibe I am getting at all.
If she was running that sort of administration the litmus test would be announcing in a few weeks time that Hinkley Point has been recast as a government funded, publically owned reactor facility with EDF building it and (potentially) operating it on a fixed management fee basis.

What will be interesting, is whether is also rejects the Osborne devolution agenda - elected mayors etc. Active interventionism needs partners, and the traditional Tory way is to look for some sort of local business forum to generate some sort of devolved legitimacy. But local business most places now offers little of substance. So either they recreate the sort of regional enterprise structures that they disbanded in 2010 (unlikely in my view) or they talk with Osborne's devolved municipal structures.

Why does it need partners?
You can do interventionism without localism quite easily.
Localism is an excuse to create talking shops that exist for the sole purpose of avoiding actually doing anything to hold down public borrowing figures and such.
You don't need to talk to locals about infrastructure for example, I could lay out a high speed line or motorway without ever actually visiting a place or talking to anyone from it. Computers and the internet have made that possible.

 

[BuryBlue]

Hinkley will go ahead because we don't have much choice. Even the most short termist of politicians know that if the power goes out then your term in office is doomed.

Haven't EDF approved it anyway?

 

[HSTEd]

Hinkley will go ahead because we don't have much choice. Even the most short termist of politicians know that if the power goes out then your term in office is doomed.

Haven't EDF approved it anyway?

Yes, but May is upset about the Chinese being involved, and I am not sure I blame her. But that is the deal that has been made to ensure that bankers can make huge sums out of it.

Which you know is the only real purpose of Tory infrastructure projects.

 

[BuryBlue]

Yes, but May is upset about the Chinese being involved, and I am not sure I blame her. But that is the deal that has been made to ensure that bankers can make huge sums out of it.

Which you know is the only real purpose of Tory infrastructure projects.

Well, yes, if one was serious about building a new nuclear fleet surely it'd be best to buy expertise and do it in house.

I thought the Chinese were only invested in Sizewell C? Wasn't HP C an EDF exclusive project?