Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[farleigh]

So... in past years we had flu, and no modifications to behaviour, and an NHS crisis.

This year we have covid, with some modifications to behaviour (masks, WFH, etc) and an NHS crisis "no worse".

Your conclusion from this is that the modifications to behaviour make no difference, rather than that the underlying potential for impact is worse with Covid. You seem to be discounting the possibility that without the current modifications to behaviour, the pressure we currently see in the NHS would be even worse.

Fortunately we do not have flu any more otherwise the NHS would be 'overwhelmed'.

 

[Bikeman78]

So... in past years we had flu, and no modifications to behaviour, and an NHS crisis.

This year we have covid, with some modifications to behaviour (masks, WFH, etc) and an NHS crisis "no worse".

Your conclusion from this is that the modifications to behaviour make no difference, rather than that the underlying potential for impact is worse with Covid. You seem to be discounting the possibility that without the current modifications to behaviour, the pressure we currently see in the NHS would be even worse.

I think a comparison between Wales and England over the next few weeks will be interesting. So far it's not looking like the more cautious approach in Wales is achieving much.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jan 2022 ==

Another thing not mentioned of course is how many people have died in that time from non Covid related causes

Around 840,000 by my calculation.

 

[bramling]

I think a comparison between Wales and England over the next few weeks will be interesting. So far it's not looking like the more cautious approach in Wales is achieving much.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jan 2022 ==


Around 840,000 by my calculation.

It doesn’t say much for Drakeford that his strategy is turning out worse than Peppa Pig’s. Will certainly be interesting to see how Drakeford spins it.

Not such a problem for Sturgeon of course, she will always find a way to twist it into Scotland desperately needing independence.

 

[Berliner]

It doesn’t say much for Drakeford that his strategy is turning out worse than Peppa Pig’s. Will certainly be interesting to see how Drakeford spins it.

Not such a problem for Sturgeon of course, she will always find a way to twist it into Scotland desperately needing independence.

If only. She has actually very much put independence aside and barely mentions it these days, much to the disappointment of many. Hopefully, this last gasp of ridiculously pointless restrictions runs its course and in 9 days they're all lifted and we move on and she gets on with what she was voted in for.

I reckon the reason for Wales doing badly even with over-the-top restrictions is that because the rules are so stupid, people are just going out of their way to ignore them and doing the complete opposite, causing a rise in infections. Places which have a light touch approach are more likely to see people follow slightly restrictive rules as it's not much of a hassle and therefore they probably work better than whatever Drakeford is trying to achieve.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

NHS England have updated bed data today which they haven't been doing over weekends. Anyway it shows total hospitalised as falling for the first time since 25th Dec with big drop in London Region. I suspect it will go up again over the weekend as discharge of patients are always slower. Perhaps worthy of more comment than it receives in the media is that patients on mechanical ventilation continues to fall and at 708 was last this low on 18th Oct despite a near trebling of total hospitalised.

 

[21C101]

Sunday Times are reporting that the government is going to pull the plug on lateral flow tests other than for people like care home workers in a few weeks and tell everyone to get in with it and live with Covid.

Predictably Sturgeon is already screeching and shroud waving furiously about it on twitter.

 

[Ediswan]

Sunday Times are reporting that the government is going to pull the plug on lateral flow tests other than for people like care home workers in a few weeks and tell everyone to get in with it and live with Covid.

If the report is correct, to be specific, cease supplying free lateral flow tests except for those in high-risk settings. Can I predict a further surge in demand for test kits ?

 

[brad465]

Sunday Times are reporting that the government is going to pull the plug on lateral flow tests other than for people like care home workers in a few weeks and tell everyone to get in with it and live with Covid.

Predictably Sturgeon is already screeching and shroud waving furiously about it on twitter.

They're not the only paper reporting something along the lines of "we need to move on", the Observer, which is more or less the other end of the political spectrum to The Sunday Times, has a front page tomorrow with the former chairman of the vaccine taskforce Dr Clive Dix telling Ministers they need to "end mass jabs and treat covid like flu":

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The fact that Dr has made that suggestion might mess with the heads of some, and we'll see who's more swayed by opinions than people, if that makes sense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jan 2022 ==

If the report is correct, to be specific, cease supplying free lateral flow tests except for those in high-risk settings. Can I predict a further surge in demand for test kits ?

This country is a master of panic buying when either a shortage and/or sudden price surge is imminent. I remember the price of stamps going up by around 10-15p at once several years ago led to them being panic bought.

 

[rapmastaj]

I think the tide is finally turning on this. With even a former vaccine taskforce head saying we should treat covid-19 like the flu and learn to live with it, policy change can't be too far off. Personally I will be hugely relieved when that happens. Long covid has done serious damage to people I know, but at this stage, the social, health, economic and tbh personal impacts of lockdown type policies are to me by far the bigger threat.

 

[Eyersey468]

I think the tide is finally turning on this. With even a former vaccine taskforce head saying we should treat covid-19 like the flu and learn to live with it, policy change can't be too far off. Personally I will be hugely relieved when that happens. Long covid has done serious damage to people I know, but at this stage, the social, health, economic and tbh personal impacts of lockdown type policies are to me by far the bigger threat.

I agree, the policies of the last 2 years have done a lot of damage and are simply not sustainable

 

[brad465]

Predictably Sturgeon is already screeching and shroud waving furiously about it on twitter.

Having scoured Twitter there's a long list of people, politicians and non-politicians, behaving in exactly the same way.

Long covid has done serious damage to people I know, but at this stage, the social, health, economic and tbh personal impacts of lockdown type policies are to me by far the bigger threat.

With hindsight, long covid wouldn't have been anywhere near as much an issue as if ME and other post-viral fatigue conditions were taken more seriously and led to research developing treatments.


There are some suggestions this Sunday Times' report is a leaked policy to test the waters. I can see truth to this as there have been plenty of policy leaks throughout the pandemic, but it's also worth remembering that there was huge resistance and outrage to the July 19th unlocking, but it still went ahead.

 

[Dent]

Sunday Times are reporting that the government is going to pull the plug on lateral flow tests other than for people like care home workers in a few weeks and tell everyone to get in with it and live with Covid.

Predictably Sturgeon is already screeching and shroud waving furiously about it on twitter.

The devil is very much in the detail there. It is not clear whether the end of free test availability will coincide with the end of any government requirements / recommendations to be tested, or whether a test will still be required / recommended in certain situations but must be paid for. If tests are still required but not free then this is another de facto increase to the cost of living, at a time when many are already struggling.

In particular it doesn't say anywhere what will happen to isolation after a positive test, which is currently 10 days or after seven days and two negative tests. Will tests be provided free for this, or will you have to pay for the chance to be released on day 7, then if that comes back positive pay again for the chance to be released on day 8 or 9? That would be rather unfair.

 

[MikeWM]

The devil is very much in the detail there. It is not clear whether the end of free test availability will coincide with the end of any government requirements / recommendations to be tested, or whether a test will still be required / recommended in certain situations but must be paid for. If tests are still required but not free then this is another de facto increase to the cost of living, at a time when many are already struggling.

Or indeed will 'vaccine passports' have gone away by then, or will this potentially be effectively a tax on the unvaccinated (as has happened in many European countries over the past few months)? Remember that currently the 'official line' from the government is that 'vaccine passports' are ok because there is a testing alternative.

 

[brad465]

The devil is very much in the detail there. It is not clear whether the end of free test availability will coincide with the end of any government requirements / recommendations to be tested, or whether a test will still be required / recommended in certain situations but must be paid for. If tests are still required but not free then this is another de facto increase to the cost of living, at a time when many are already struggling.

In particular it doesn't say anywhere what will happen to isolation after a positive test, which is currently 10 days or after seven days and two negative tests. Will tests be provided free for this, or will you have to pay for the chance to be released on day 7, then if that comes back positive pay again for the chance to be released on day 8 or 9? That would be rather unfair.

I would hope that mandating a testing requirement but charging for them would be political suicide, especially given the cost of living crisis at the moment. Also while the effectiveness of using testing to curb transmission is debatable, mandating isolation with tests that must be paid for is extremely counterproductive, as people will just avoid getting tested if they feel they can't afford testing.

Or indeed will 'vaccine passports' have gone away by then, or will this potentially be effectively a tax on the unvaccinated (as has happened in many European countries over the past few months)? Remember that currently the 'official line' from the government is that 'vaccine passports' are ok because there is a testing alternative.

One would hope that the words of Dr Clive Dix, as stated further up in tomorrow's Observer, would be useful to counter this prospect becoming reality.

 

[yorkie]

So... in past years we had flu, and no modifications to behaviour, and an NHS crisis.

This year we have covid, with some modifications to behaviour (masks, WFH, etc) and an NHS crisis "no worse".

Your conclusion from this is that the modifications to behaviour make no difference, rather than that the underlying potential for impact is worse with Covid. You seem to be discounting the possibility that without the current modifications to behaviour, the pressure we currently see in the NHS would be even worse.

Yeah restrictions really work, don't they?

If only England had as many restrictions as Scotland and Wales, eh?

Remind me, what are the current 7 day case rates?

Also how do you explain high cases in restricted places like France?

You really are clutching at straws and providing no evidence for your claims.

The sooner we reach endemic equilibrium, the better...

 

[DustyBin]

Yeah restrictions really work, don't they?

If only England had as many restrictions as Scotland and Wales, eh?

Remind me, what are the current 7 day case rates?

Also how do you explain high cases in restricted places like France?

You really are clutching at straws and providing no evidence for your claims.

The sooner we reach endemic equilibrium, the better...

Agreed, I don’t read too much into “modifications to behaviour”. Fair enough some people didn’t want to be in isolation over Christmas understandably, but the only effect that will have had (if any) will have been to delay some infections by a couple of weeks. “Controlling the virus” was always fantasy but it’s even more so since Omicron arrived.

 

[big_rig]

So... in past years we had flu, and no modifications to behaviour, and an NHS crisis.

This year we have covid, with some modifications to behaviour (masks, WFH, etc) and an NHS crisis "no worse".

Your conclusion from this is that the modifications to behaviour make no difference, rather than that the underlying potential for impact is worse with Covid. You seem to be discounting the possibility that without the current modifications to behaviour, the pressure we currently see in the NHS would be even worse.

There have also been one hundred and thirty four million vaccines delivered, but no, it must be the masks making things better.

 

[GC class B1]

Is it possible that the use of restrictions, especially masks, modifies peoples behaviour in a way that increases transmission. Where people are considering the risk of transmission in everyday activities such as shopping as high risk and keeping a greater distance, transmission will be reduced. Masks give a false sense of lower risk and may therefore take some emphasis away from the need to be aware of high transmission risk areas.
This could be one reason for higher rates of COVID in other countries.

 

[bramling]

Is it possible that the use of restrictions, especially masks, modifies peoples behaviour in a way that increases transmission. Where people are considering the risk of transmission in everyday activities such as shopping as high risk and keeping a greater distance, transmission will be reduced. Masks give a false sense of lower risk and may therefore take some emphasis away from the need to be aware of high transmission risk areas.
This could be one reason for higher rates of COVID in other countries.

Indeed, and it could well also be that masks being used outside of their intended setting (in a controlled hospital environment) is also proving counter-productive. Just like we were told in Spring 2020, before the mythical "growing evidence" caused a u-turn. The "growing evidence" we've never seen, of course.

 

[Cdd89]

While I’m sure they help a bit for face-to-face interactions, I have long been concerned that the masks most people wear (except tightly fitted ones) make spread worse in contexts where people sit directly next to one another (planes, trains, etc). This is because there are usually gaps at the sides and air is redirected in those directions.

I’m really surprised this is so seldom talked about, as it seems plausible and I’d expect it to concern everyone, regardless of views on the topic!

 

[duncanp]

While I’m sure they help a bit for face-to-face interactions, I have long been concerned that the masks most people wear (except tightly fitted ones) make spread worse in contexts where people sit directly next to one another (planes, trains, etc). This is because there are usually gaps at the sides and air is redirected in those directions.

I’m really surprised this is so seldom talked about, as it seems plausible and I’d expect it to concern everyone, regardless of views on the topic!

Precisely.

If the air can get out from under the mask to steam my glasses up, it can get out and potentially provide a means of infecting other people.

I have said before about when I went to France in November and was waiting at a bus stop on a cold day and could see my breath condense. As the time for the arrival of the bus grew near I put a face covering on, and could still see the same amount of breath condense as when I didn't have the mask on.

 

[kristiang85]

Yeah restrictions really work, don't they?

If only England had as many restrictions as Scotland and Wales, eh?

Remind me, what are the current 7 day case rates?

Also how do you explain high cases in restricted places like France?

You really are clutching at straws and providing no evidence for your claims.

The sooner we reach endemic equilibrium, the better...

It can also be seen in the Netherlands and Belgium (graph at the bottom of this post). The former has had curfews and partial business lockdowns for 2 months, the latter has had much less restrictions. And yet the outcome is pretty much the same...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2022 ==

OMIRCON more like a total disaster on December 1st we had zero covid cases of any type in Queensland with basically zero restrictions. Then on 13th December the border was opened to other parts of Australia. Today we had over 11000 new cases!

The results of this has been dangerously understaffed hospitals and now food shortages in Queensland as the food industry and its distribution network has lost more than 50% of its staff since Christmas due to being infected with bloody covid!

We should have never reopened the Queensland border or allowed Quranteen free international travel. Only Western Australia remains covid free and may have to remain closed forever to ensure a normal way of life.

Don't you think that the lack of natural immunity
and exposure in the population is part of the problem?

Also if it did remain closed forever, it would become a much less desirable place to live for many (especially younger people), and there would be a long term brain drain from health services, etc which would only make the problem worse.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2022 ==

Another thing not mentioned of course is how many people have died in that time from non Covid related causes

About 1.2m deaths in total.

And those 150,000 deaths are of course 'of any cause' within 28 days of a positive test.

 

[DustyBin]

Is it possible that the use of restrictions, especially masks, modifies peoples behaviour in a way that increases transmission. Where people are considering the risk of transmission in everyday activities such as shopping as high risk and keeping a greater distance, transmission will be reduced. Masks give a false sense of lower risk and may therefore take some emphasis away from the need to be aware of high transmission risk areas.
This could be one reason for higher rates of COVID in other countries.

I think there’s some truth in this. We’re also fortunate that fomite transmission is extremely rare seeing as it’s become normalised to leave dirty masks on tables etc.

 

[LAX54]

I think the tide is finally turning on this. With even a former vaccine taskforce head saying we should treat covid-19 like the flu and learn to live with it, policy change can't be too far off. Personally I will be hugely relieved when that happens. Long covid has done serious damage to people I know, but at this stage, the social, health, economic and tbh personal impacts of lockdown type policies are to me by far the bigger threat.

We also need the rest of the World to follow our lead in 'returning to normal life'

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2022 ==

Indeed, and it could well also be that masks being used outside of their intended setting (in a controlled hospital environment) is also proving counter-productive. Just like we were told in Spring 2020, before the mythical "growing evidence" caused a u-turn. The "growing evidence" we've never seen, of course.

And now we have the USA saying cloth masks should not be used, as they are 'less effective' and at least one EU Country banning them altogether.

 

[island]

We also need the rest of the World to follow our lead in 'returning to normal life'

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2022 ==


And now we have the USA saying cloth masks should not be used, as they are 'less effective' and at least one EU Country banning them altogether.

The latest in Greece is you either need to wear two disposable surgical masks, or an FFP2/3/N95/99.

 

[Bayum]

Yeah restrictions really work, don't they?

If only England had as many restrictions as Scotland and Wales, eh?

Remind me, what are the current 7 day case rates?

Also how do you explain high cases in restricted places like France?

You really are clutching at straws and providing no evidence for your claims.

The sooner we reach endemic equilibrium, the better...

In what way did restrictions not work? Where's your evidence for these claims?

 

[philosopher]

The latest in Greece is you either need to wear two disposable surgical masks, or an FFP2/3/N95/99.

There does seem to be an increasing divergence in how countries are responding to Covid now. 18 months ago with the odd exception countries generally had very similar measures. Now the USA, the UK and most of Eastern Europe are increasingly adopting a live with Covid approach, while countries like Austria, the Netherlands and Greece are continuing with a suppression approach. Interestingly Australia seems to be moving to a live with Covid approach too.

If living with Covid turns out to have no worse health outcomes then a suppression approach, which I think will be the case, the countries continuing with suppressing Covid will find it increasingly hard to justify.

 

[brad465]

Right this will be fun to see in the coming weeks: CRG chair Mark Harper has issued an ultimatum to Johnson: remove all covid restrictions by the end of this month or face a massive party revolt and the prospect of a leadership challenge later this year:

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Boris Johnson has been urged by an influential Conservative MP to end all Covid-19 restrictions by the end of this month, or face a massive revolt within his party...

 

[43066]

In what way did restrictions not work? Where's your evidence for these claims?

So: taking masks for example. Please can you explain why Scotland has had consistently worse case numbers than England, despite much more extensive mask mandation? Could it be because low quality surgical masks don’t prevent virus spread? It’s simple and obvious to see why once you understand that aerosols aren’t stopped by surgical masks.

I suppose you’ll never accept they’re ineffective and, when they don’t work, will respond by demanding mandation in ever more settings. Thankfully people, including the decision makers, are increasingly turning away from these nonsensical, ineffective rituals.

 

[Dent]

In what way did restrictions not work? Where's your evidence for these claims?

The evidence is literally in the quote within your own post.