Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Merseysider]

An annual lockdown in Jan and Feb being an accepted part of the calendar?

No bloody way.

I, and a number of my colleagues, have refrained from attending any protests whatsoever as we’re teachers and:
a) we need to be in school weekdays, and
b) we need to be careful how and where we’re seen in public in our free time.

But several others and I are at tipping point and if He Who Must Not Be Named Trusted closes the schools again or introduces another lockdown because of this Omicron variant we’ll be making our voices heard. Our union rep and headteacher (etc) are definitely not on board the Boris train!

 

[nw1]

No bloody way.

I, and a number of my colleagues, have refrained from attending any protests whatsoever as we’re teachers and:
a) we need to be in school weekdays, and
b) we need to be careful how and where we’re seen in public in our free time.

But several others and I are at tipping point and if He Who Cannot Be Named Trusted closes the schools again or introduces another lockdown because of this Omicron variant we’ll be making our voices heard. Our union rep and headteacher (etc) are definitely not on board the Boris train!

I don't agree with any suggestion of annual lockdown (of course) but the tone of the radio comment alarmed me, it almost seemed to be trivialising it. I suspect if that happened, the number of deaths from mental health related issues would far outstrip those caused by Covid. Time the politicians and the media realised that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Dec 2021 ==

Bloody hell.

You’d think we were on the Titanic about to sail into an iceberg.

Whatever happened to “Keep calm and carry on...”?

It's certainly unusual for the Mail and the Guardian to be singing from the same hymn sheet. But it's unusual also for me to be finding myself agreeing with the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood. Strange political times we're living in.

 

[brad465]

Having an annual lockdown for 2-3 months will ensure we never have sustainable public finances. Granted they weren't in a good place pre-covid, but shutting businesses down, curtailing activity and always having to borrow will upset the Tory base especially and cause them to shift support to the point the Tories are either voted out and/or change their ways to get support back.

 

[Eyersey468]

Having an annual lockdown for 2-3 months will ensure we never have sustainable public finances. Granted they weren't in a good place pre-covid, but shutting businesses down, curtailing activity and always having to borrow will upset the Tory base especially and cause them to shift support to the point the Tories are either voted out and/or change their ways to get support back.

I agree locking down every year is not sustainable. The country will go bankrupt and there will come a point business owners either run out of money or patience and simply say what's the point in us trying to keep going when we keep being ordered to close.

 

[Smidster]

I don't think you would ever get to annual "lockdowns" but after they were able to impose restrictions without any real opposition, and indeed widespread public support, then it becomes easier and easier to pull that lever in the future.

I would certainly expect NPI's like masks to come back over the next few winters as it is now OK to do that in order to "protect the NHS"

I would expect more restrictions either before or just after Christmas - Drakeford has suggested a full lockdown between Christmas and New Year which sounds plausible (if pointless) but speaking as an analyst some of the UKHSA modelling is embarrassing

 

[Eyersey468]

I don't think you would ever get to annual "lockdowns" but after they were able to impose restrictions without any real opposition, and indeed widespread public support, then it becomes easier and easier to pull that lever in the future.

I would certainly expect NPI's like masks to come back over the next few winters as it is now OK to do that in order to "protect the NHS"

I would expect more restrictions either before or just after Christmas - Drakeford has suggested a full lockdown between Christmas and New Year which sounds plausible (if pointless) but speaking as an analyst some of the UKHSA modelling is embarrassing

To be honest I am very concerned we are now stuck in this cycle of restrictions every winter

 

[Cowley]

To be honest I am very concerned we are now stuck in this cycle of restrictions every winter

The NHS cannot cope with the slightest blip above the norm now that it’s been run down to level that can barely cope, so we’re all going to have to suffer for it basically. That’s how it seems anyway.

 

[birchesgreen]

To be fair, I don't care if we have a full lockdown as I have happily been working from home in my main job since March last year and I've put in for permanent home working. As long as I can get my Greggs delivered and my online shop selling stuff, I'm happy!

How lazy, i walk to my local Greggs from my home office.

 

[brad465]

It's now understood that the rebellion to Plan B is large enough that it's being split into three different votes: one for covid passes, one for masks and one for new testing requirements:

Covid: Plan B vote to be split into three amid Tory rebellion

The measures for England are still likely to pass as Labour has committed to backing them.

www.bbc.co.uk

A vote to pass new Covid measures into law this week is expected to be split, as Boris Johnson faces a rebellion from about 60 Conservative MPs.
Government sources suggested the introduction of Plan B measures for England will be divided into three separate votes on Tuesday.
There will be a distinct vote for plans to introduce Covid passes in some venues, opposed by some Tories.
But Plan B is expected to become law as Labour is backing the government.

The BBC estimates that about 60 Tory MPs have said they will oppose the introduction of Covid passes - requiring proof of double jab or negative test - to access certain venues like nightclubs.
If replicated in the Commons on Tuesday, it would be the largest rebellion of his MPs that Mr Johnson has seen yet.
As a result, it is expected MPs will be asked to vote on this separately to other parts of the plan.
There is likely to be one vote on the new facemask rules.
Another vote on whether a daily negative test result should allow those exposed to a positive case to avoid self-isolation.
And the third on Covid status certification, described by some as vaccine passports, but which can be obtained through a negative lateral flow test.

The fact they're doing this even though the Government can expect legislation to pass with opposition support shows how much they're worried about a divided-looking party.

 

[Watershed]

It's now understood that the rebellion to Plan B is large enough that it's being split into three different votes: one for covid passes, one for masks and one for new testing requirements:

Covid: Plan B vote to be split into three amid Tory rebellion

The measures for England are still likely to pass as Labour has committed to backing them.

www.bbc.co.uk

The fact they're doing this even though the Government can expect legislation to pass with opposition support shows how much they're worried about a divided-looking party.

The extension of the face covering mandate was always going to be a separate vote, seeing as it came into force earlier under its own set of Regulations.

Almost throughout, there have been separate Regulations for face coverings, self-isolation, general restrictions and international travel. So having separate amendment Regulations wouldn't be anything new.

To be honest, I'm surprised there's any suggestion of concerns from No. 10 - you would need nearly all the Tories to rebel for measures to fail, seeing as Labour are happy to dance by SAGE's tune.

 

[eastdyke]

And today's reported number is:
Friday: 9250

And cases reported today [for yesterday] in Gauteng:
Saturday [11th]: 8529

Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa

This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.

www.covid19sa.org

A further decline - again underlining far from an 'exponential increase' Omicron could have already peaked in Gauteng.

We have been sold another pup .....

This needs highlighting in any communication with MPs before the votes on Tuesday.

 

[duncanp]

And cases reported today [for yesterday] in Gauteng:
Saturday [11th]: 8529

Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa

This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.

www.covid19sa.org

A further decline - again underlining far from an 'exponential increase' Omicron could have already peaked in Gauteng.

We have been sold another pup .....

This needs highlighting in any communication with MPs before the votes on Tuesday.

The table below shows the number of UK cases by specimen date, and the figure in the right hand column is the percentage increase in cases for that date compared with a week earlier. The week on week increase in cases has slowed in the past few days, and is now negative.

Can someone please tell me where is this "surge" in cases?

The number of patients in hospital is flatlining too.

The latest figure (7,413 patients on December 9th, is, er 23% lower than the figure of 9,670 patients in hospital on 1st November)

All the whinging that we are getting from SAGE scientists and the other locktivist bores is based on "modelling" about what "might" happen. But the figures on the ground tell a different story.

08/12/2021	50,863	-4.9%
07/12/2021	53,235	-2.3%
06/12/2021	57,537	4.7%
05/12/2021	39,902	2.6%
04/12/2021	37,707	15.5%
03/12/2021	44,530	15.5%
02/12/2021	49,165	15.6%
01/12/2021	53,504	16.8%
30/11/2021	54,486	15.2%
29/11/2021	54,957	10.4%

 

[Ted633]

Positivity rate doesn't suggest any material change in infection rates currently

View attachment 106780

Today's 7 day case rise - 12.6%
Today's 7 day testing rise - 12.6%

The latest 'surge' in cases this week has followed the same pattern everyday, with % increase in testing equal or greater than the % increase in tests.
If you seek, you will find

 

[duncanp]

Today's 7 day case rise - 12.6%
Today's 7 day testing rise - 12.6%

The latest 'surge' in cases this week has followed the same pattern everyday, with % increase in testing equal or greater than the % increase in tests.
If you seek, you will find

And presumably there will be a drop in the number of tests over the school holidays.

 

[brad465]

And presumably there will be a drop in the number of tests over the school holidays.

We have to hold out a week or so for that, and there's no question over the fact ramping up of concerns about Omicron will happen before then.

Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph are reporting a Cabinet Revolt could result from further measures being brought in, which would be a first for Johnson on any matter:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[Lampshade]

I’m struggling somewhat with this constant barrage of scaremongering and bad news, had started going back to the office (with anticipated full return on 4th January), which was keeping me going, don’t know how I’m going to deal with a fourth lockdown, if it happens.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I’m struggling somewhat with this constant barrage of scaremongering and bad news, had started going back to the office (with anticipated full return on 4th January), which was keeping me going, don’t know how I’m going to deal with a fourth lockdown, if it happens.

This from DM (only coz its free to view) suggests the government should have stuck to its original thinking, before ramping up restrictions further, when it said they were taking pre-emptive action whilst a better understanding was assessed by medical experts

 

[Jonny]

It's now understood that the rebellion to Plan B is large enough that it's being split into three different votes: one for covid passes, one for masks and one for new testing requirements:

Covid: Plan B vote to be split into three amid Tory rebellion

The measures for England are still likely to pass as Labour has committed to backing them.

www.bbc.co.uk

The fact they're doing this even though the Government can expect legislation to pass with opposition support shows how much they're worried about a divided-looking party.

As well as the comment "two wings of the same bird", as in left wing and right wing.

 

[TheEdge]

I’m struggling somewhat with this constant barrage of scaremongering and bad news, had started going back to the office (with anticipated full return on 4th January), which was keeping me going, don’t know how I’m going to deal with a fourth lockdown, if it happens.

I'm starting to loose it. I'm not a social animal and for the first lockdown I was fine making jokes about being an introvert and not impacted...

Now I'm just dreading each day and whatever new crap is going to be spouted today and how I'm meant to cope with my life consisting of driving empty trains concerned about the existential crisis facing my industry and sitting at home in a small flat with no outdoor space or things to do. I can't do it again.

Personally I'm really starting to get very angry with how two generations (Millennials and Gen Z) and seemingly now being forced to give up years of our lives to protect the Baby Boomers. As if pulling up the economic ladder behind them and trashing the environment wasn't enough...

 

[duncanp]

I'm starting to loose it. I'm not a social animal and for the first lockdown I was fine making jokes about being an introvert and not impacted...

Now I'm just dreading each day and whatever new crap is going to be spouted today and how I'm meant to cope with my life consisting of driving empty trains concerned about the existential crisis facing my industry and sitting at home in a small flat with no outdoor space or things to do. I can't do it again.

Personally I'm really starting to get very angry with how two generations (Millennials and Gen Z) and seemingly now being forced to give up years of our lives to protect the Baby Boomers. As if pulling up the economic ladder behind them and trashing the environment wasn't enough...

I can assure you that as a Baby Boomer (born 1963) I am very much against any further restrictions, and I know the long term effect of the restrictions on younger generations.

I am now retired, and it is soul destroying sitting at home with nothing to do because all the things you use to occupy your time have been closed due to a pointless lockdown.

I don't want to be "protected" if it means that other people have to suffer. I would rather have a better quality of life than just living as long as possible for the sake of it.

There is hope though in The Telegraph story today in that Boris Johnson faces a Cabinet revolt against introducing Plan C without any evidence that there is a significantly higher risk of hospitalisation from Omicron. There will be an even bigger revolt from the rest of the Conservative party in these circumstances.

 

[Bikeman78]

The current media faeces-storm seems to be putting the idea in minds that people are back to square one until they’ve had the third dose. Hence why some people are now running around in hysteria again. And it doesn’t help that now no-one believes a single word Johnson says about anything.

But who are those people? I don't know anyone like that. People that have gone out to work throughout are just getting on with it so that rules out half of the population. Towns and cities are full of people shopping and drinking. The trains were full yesterday. I suppose the worried people are sitting at home but what's to be gained by making everyone else sit at home too?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Dec 2021 ==

I refuse to watch Sky News - Kay Burley being a case in point. The fact she spent months critising MP's and helping to scaremonger viewers, only to breach the second lockdown with her 60th birthday party speaks volumes for me. What a delightful creature she is! She should have been sacked from Sky News, not suspended for six months.

CJ

Further evidence that the problem is greatly exaggerated. If it were serious then the government and the media scumbags would be hiding in their homes, not having parties and laughing at us.

 

[BRX]

The table below shows the number of UK cases by specimen date, and the figure in the right hand column is the percentage increase in cases for that date compared with a week earlier. The week on week increase in cases has slowed in the past few days, and is now negative.

Can someone please tell me where is this "surge" in cases?

Yes, it is now visible in for example several London Boroughs, for example Southwark.

This fairly much as predicted; you will see it in localised areas first and it'll take a little while before being visible in the national numbers.

Of course what remains to be seen is the effect on hospitalisation rates which we'd expect to lag by a week or two, and how far the upward growth continues before levelling off.

 

[adc82140]

Infections are certainly levelling off in South Africa. Nadim Zahawi said on breakfast TV that it is milder (not may be, is). People are now in hospital, but no comment has been made on how sick they are, whether it was Covid that brought them in etc etc. But it's well and truely seeded here, so the travel restrictions, including the red list, need to be removed immediately. The WHO sees them as unnecessary and unfair.

 

[yorkie]

Infections are certainly levelling off in South Africa. Nadim Zahawi said on breakfast TV that it is milder (not may be, is). People are now in hospital, but no comment has been made on how sick they are, whether it was Covid that brought them in etc etc.

The evidence that it causes milder symptoms is growing daily, but the Government are reluctant to admit this.

The vast majority of Covid positive patients in South Africa are incidental cases, only picked up by routeing testing and are not in hospital due to Covid.

That said, it is clearly a much fitter form of the virus, so even if it's much less virulent (harmful) than Delta, but infection rates go up by a disproportionately high amount, we could see many more people in hospital simply due to the huge numbers involved; a tiny percentage of a huge number can still be a large number.

But it's well and truely seeded here, so the travel restrictions, including the red list, need to be removed immediately. The WHO sees them as unnecessary and unfair.

Yes it has already been seeded here and will become the dominant variant soon; I agree travel restrictions are pointless but (like flimsy masks) they are evidence of being seen to be doing 'something' and some of the hysterical people who call for restrictions are satisfied with such measures. The Government is keen on pandering to hysterical pro-restriction activists.

 

[duncanp]

Yes, it is now visible in for example several London Boroughs, for example Southwark.

This fairly much as predicted; you will see it in localised areas first and it'll take a little while before being visible in the national numbers.

Of course what remains to be seen is the effect on hospitalisation rates which we'd expect to lag by a week or two, and how far the upward growth continues before levelling off.



View attachment 106823

Looking through the figures for the London Borough of Southwark, I note that the rate at which cases are increasing has started to slow in the last few days, although it remains to be seen whether this is part of a long term trend.

A similar pattern can be seen in the neighouring boroughs of Lambeth and Lewisham.

Further West in Wandsworth, cases are increasing at an accelerating rate, but even there it is worth noting that the increase seems to be confined to those under the age of 60, with cases in the over 60s, the majority of whom will have had booster jabs, are hardly increasing at all. This is also the case for other South London boroughs such as Merton, Sutton and Croydon.

The figures for those London Boroughs where the outbreak started will provide information as to how long the outbreak is likely to last, and the effect on hospitalisation. These will be actual figures, not those from dodgy SAGE modelling, and these figures can be used to inform decisions about whether any further restrictions are necessary.

As the Omicron variant spreads throughout the country, there will be local authorities where cases are increasing at an accelerating rate, those where the rate of increase is slowing, and those where cases are falling.

The picture for England as a whole will be an average of the picture for all local authorities, with increases in cases in one area offset by decreases in cases in other areas.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

LOL. He should have been made an example of and had the book thrown at him over his flouting of the drug laws. I am someone with generally libertarian views on whether one should be prosecuted for drug use (as in, I don't support criminalisation - even though I dislike the idea of taking drugs personally), but the one thing I don't like are ministers sanctimoniously telling us what to do when openly flouting the laws themselves. People like Gove and Hancock need to face prosecution, and be made an example of - to show us that power doesn't put you above the law.

Switching sides in the political divide, I am getting increasingly frustrated about the pro-fear attitude taken by the Guardian and much of the so-called left too. Don't they understand that this cannot go on indefinitely?

Sorry for the off-topic, but if ever there was anything guaranteed to remove the "cool" factor from drugs like cocaine, it's probably the idea of Michael Gove doing it.

 

[BRX]

Looking through the figures for the London Borough of Southwark, I note that the rate at which cases are increasing has started to slow in the last few days, although it remains to be seen whether this is part of a long term trend.

No, there is nothing to tell us that rate of increase has slowed yet; the numbers on that graph are by specimen date and not numbers reported by day; this means that numbers for the last few days are incomplete and we can expect them to get added to in the coming days. This is why they are shown grey on the graph.



The purpose of the modelling that SAGE look at is to give a best guess at what might be coming, it can't predict anything with certainty (and the modellers never claim it can) but it can give warning of the potential of something dangerous happening before it shows up in the actual cases data.

By the time actual hospitalisation data appears and is showing that a serious situation is developing, it could well be too late to take the right action.

 

[yorksrob]

No, there is nothing to tell us that rate of increase has slowed yet; the numbers on that graph are by specimen date and not numbers reported by day; this means that numbers for the last few days are incomplete and we can expect them to get added to in the coming days. This is why they are shown grey on the graph.

View attachment 106829

The purpose of the modelling that SAGE look at is to give a best guess at what might be coming, it can't predict anything with certainty (and the modellers never claim it can) but it can give warning of the potential of something dangerous happening before it shows up in the actual cases data.

By the time actual hospitalisation data appears and is showing that a serious situation is developing, it could well be too late to take the right action.

Well, if it's as accurate as all the other modelling that SAGE have done, we've nothing to worry about.

 

[adc82140]

No, there is nothing to tell us that rate of increase has slowed yet; the numbers on that graph are by specimen date and not numbers reported by day; this means that numbers for the last few days are incomplete and we can expect them to get added to in the coming days. This is why they are shown grey on the graph.

View attachment 106829

The purpose of the modelling that SAGE look at is to give a best guess at what might be coming, it can't predict anything with certainty (and the modellers never claim it can) but it can give warning of the potential of something dangerous happening before it shows up in the actual cases data.

By the time actual hospitalisation data appears and is showing that a serious situation is developing, it could well be too late to take the right action.

Pfizer have data that says 3 doses affords as much protection as 2 doses did for Delta. Do you not believe them? What action do you think should be taken now?

 

[nw1]

I can assure you that as a Baby Boomer (born 1963) I am very much against any further restrictions, and I know the long term effect of the restrictions on younger generations.

I wouldn't class someone born in 1963 as a baby boomer, being 18 years after the end of the war - but good point. Indeed, even some much older people in their late 70s or 80s might not want to spend the rest of their lives shut up in their houses - they may prefer to get out and about and take a risk that they might get badly ill with Covid.

Speaking for myself perhaps but in addition to the younger generations, I would imagine the late 40s, early 50s generation would be another one not too happy about future lockdowns and restrictions. On the one hand we're too young to make serious Covid illness likely, and too young to retire - and on the other hand, we have perhaps 20 years at best of working life ahead of us, and the longer the economy is impacted, the more difficult it might be to find decent work in that narrowing window.