Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[farleigh]

In fairness to the Chinese, we've not really had to lockdown in the UK at all. We've had requests from politicians to "Do the right thing", but in practice it's largely been voluntary compliance. Yes, pubs, workplaces, hotels etc were obliged to conform because they're easy to enforce, but the real spread has been in private homes, where enforcement has been almost non existent. I suspect the Chinese people conform in their homes through fear (or respect for their law and their own fellow citizens maybe?), whereas a lot of UK people simply don't conform behind closed doors. And who can blame the UK people when our own Government act the way they do?

I felt it was very much a lockdown with businesses, schools and places of worship forced to close.

Surely if the real spread was at home then the request to stay at home in 2020 was catastrophic??

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Assuming 350 covid people are being discharged from hospital, this should be compared against the 3,636 patients in hospital at 8am on 30th December in London hospitals. Thus patients are spending around 10 days in hospital- noting that this will be skewed by patients in hospital who aren't in hospital directly for covid treatment and some poor patients who will likely be in hospital for an extended period.

SAGE have published updated CO-SIN data for Dec 21 showing much reduced length of hospital stays (LHS) compared to earlier in the year (RHS) which needs to be factored in so its more like 4-5 days albeit I acknowledge that there is an upper limit for total hospitalised and the debate now is whether that threshold will be reached - which in itself is lower than physical beds due to staff self isolating. However, as other posters have noted, imposing any further restrictions now won't have any impact for at least two weeks so its a toss the coin decision about whether the wave will naturally moderate from here vs restrictions.





You are also right to draw attention to the impact on hospital resourcing as whilst community levels of admissions are lower is a positive its clear with a more transmissible Omicron nosocomial infections are going to be higher and poorly patients who then get covid in hospital potentially deteriorate further and need more specialised medical support. Thus to avoid restrictions the govt/NHS need to have a plan to minimise nosocomial acquired infections and i believe separate hospital areas are a solution even if it means decreasing a trusts capabilities whilst staff are transferred temporarily as it will reduce the overall number of patients acquiring covid. I know the leper hospitals are now correctly seen as a bad response by Victorians and beyond but they were setup precisely to avoid spreading infections (or so they thought at teh time).

 

[takno]

In fairness to the Chinese, we've not really had to lockdown in the UK at all. We've had requests from politicians to "Do the right thing", but in practice it's largely been voluntary compliance. Yes, pubs, workplaces, hotels etc were obliged to conform because they're easy to enforce, but a lot of the spread has been in private homes, where enforcement has been almost non existent. I suspect the Chinese people conform in their homes through fear (or respect for their law and their own fellow citizens maybe?), whereas a lot of UK people simply don't conform behind closed doors. And who can blame the UK people when our own Government act the way they do?

It was a lockdown. The fact that a harsher more destructive lockdown is possible doesn't detract from the harms of the lockdown we pursued.

 

[Smidster]

What do we think about these lateral flow tests ? I've been very happy to take them when visiting the elderly or vulnerable, but I'm not comfortable with the idea that they should be taken everytime one socialises, particularly given that Omicron is less virulent, if more transmissable than previous versions.

I see absolutely no reason to be testing millions of healthy people every day in a world where we have over 90pc vaccinated and over 50pc boosted - it is not something we considered for other respiratory diseases before Covid so why should it be any different now and then you can have the insanity of someone with a cold who does a test which is negative who goes about life as normal despite being more Ill than many of those who are positive.

I have never taken one voluntarily (a few that were mandated for an event last Summer) and I don't plan on starting now.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I see absolutely no reason to be testing millions of healthy people every day in a world where we have over 90pc vaccinated and over 50pc boosted - it is not something we considered for other respiratory diseases before Covid so why should it be any different now and then you can have the insanity of someone with a cold who does a test which is negative who goes about life as normal despite being more Ill than many of those who are positive.

I have never taken one voluntarily (a few that were mandated for an event last Summer) and I don't plan on starting now.

If your not trying to manage the consequences than thats fine but until Omicron came along attempting to moderate hospitalisations was necessary to avoid using the sledgehammer of restrictions. With Omicron it does look like a population wide testing and isolation strategy is not going to moderate transmission rates so we should really now be concentrating testing on health and social care workers to ensure those most at risk are given maximum protection. Also seems essential to me to keep covid infected patients together even at the expense of some temporary reduced hospital capacity so as to minimise the nosocomial acquired infections especially amongst people who are already poorly.

 

[johntea]

What do we think about these lateral flow tests ? I've been very happy to take them when visiting the elderly or vulnerable, but I'm not comfortable with the idea that they should be taken everytime one socialises, particularly given that Omicron is less virulent, if more transmissable than previous versions.

What struck me more than anything is the amount of plastic waste they must be generating

'Just chuck them in your household waste when you're done with them!'

 

[brad465]

What struck me more than anything is the amount of plastic waste they must be generating

'Just chuck them in your household waste when you're done with them!'

This is something I've been recommending we talk about more, as it is supposed to be a far more logical argument than ones around freedom/liberty and restrictions not working, even though these are costs to our approach. We've thrown the environment out of the way to passionately care about covid, without realising a lot of our covid response is exacerbating environmental issues.

 

[birchesgreen]

What do we think about these lateral flow tests ? I've been very happy to take them when visiting the elderly or vulnerable, but I'm not comfortable with the idea that they should be taken everytime one socialises, particularly given that Omicron is less virulent, if more transmissable than previous versions.

Taking one everytime is overkill i think. I just take one a week, on a Monday after a weekend of mixing with the great unwashed on Britain's railways. Mostly just for my mum's (who obviously always worries about her boy - even though i'm 50) benefit.

 

[duncanp]

Taking one everytime is overkill i think. I just take one a week, on a Monday after a weekend of mixing with the great unwashed on Britain's railways. Mostly just for my mum's (who obviously always worries about her boy - even though i'm 50) benefit.

I think that as part of moving away from COVID and to a more normal society, were are going to have to stop the routine testing of asymptomatic people.

Quite possibly this will happen later this year.

For a little while longer, I think it would still be prudent to test people who are admitted to hospital, for whatever reason, but even this should stop eventually, perhaps by the end of the year if there hasn't been any new scariant.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Taking one everytime is overkill i think. I just take one a week, on a Monday after a weekend of mixing with the great unwashed on Britain's railways.

What organisations currently insist on their staff taking one or two such tests per week? Care home assistants are one that I can name.

 

[birchesgreen]

What organisations currently insist on their staff taking one or two such tests per week? Care home assistants are one that I can name.

My company strongly advise on daily tests for people who work in the office, this came in just before the break, it was 2 tests a week beforehand.

I'm WFH anyway.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I understand that the World Health Organisation were the prime mover in advice when the omicron variant was first known. Have they changed course in their advice since then?

 

[yorkie]

I understand that the World Health Organisation were the prime mover in advice when the omicron variant was first known. Have they changed course in their advice since then?

I don't know but their advice pages are here:

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – World Health Organization

Information on COVID-19, the infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus.

www.who.int

I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt; they are prone to changing their minds and if they had their way we'd not be boosted. I think almost anyone, whatever their views, will find something to disagree with the WHO on

I've often wondered what is the real situation in China. It seems beyond belief that the virus started there, in the world's most populated country, and yet their death rate has become one of the lowest in the world.
Let's suppose their death rate really is this low, perhaps this means they have some form of vaccine/antidote, maybe from very early on, that they've just not shared with the rest of the world?
If not, then are they not vulnerable to a massive surge in due course?

Notwithstanding any cover ups, any lockdowns that occur in China are very strict, e.g. a whole city will be closed off. People cannot leave their homes for any reason except one member of a household may go for food but even then not every day.

People with symptoms have been rounded up, and placed in large halls.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...avirus-lockdown-strategy-brutal-but-effective

transport into and out of the city was closed, with no exceptions even for personal and medical emergencies.

Initially people were allowed out of their homes, but restrictions soon tightened. ...

the policy became even more aggressive, with officials going door to door for health checks, and forcing anyone ill into isolation. A disabled boy reportedly died after he was left without food, water or help when his his father and brother were quarantined.

If you want to know more about their quarantine centres, see https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/22/asia/china-coronavirus-roundup-intl-hnk/index.html

But on Tuesday, despite having recovered from the illness and been given the all-clear, the 30-year-old lawyer said she was forced into a makeshift quarantine center at a technology park....

Their brutal methods appear to have been relatively effective at containing the virus but it is doubtful that such methods would continue to be effective with the latest Omicron variant.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I don't know but their advice pages are here:

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – World Health Organization

Information on COVID-19, the infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus.

www.who.int

I'd take anything they say with a pinch of salt; they are prone to changing their minds and if they had their way we'd not be boosted. I think almost anyone, whatever their views, will find something to disagree with the WHO on

Was that also not a view concerning the WHO expressed by "The Orange One" when he was President of the the USA?

 

[duncanp]

I also think that from the second anniversary of the lockdown in March, or possibly even sooner, we should stop publishing COVID figures every day.

Once a week would be sufficient, and even then we should eventually stop publishing them altogether.

It doesn't do people's mental health any good to constantly worry about the figures, and whether this metric or that metric is going up or down, and by how much.

And then from a date in the spring, perhaps around Easter, we should not only get rid of all mask mandates, but actually make it illegal for any business or service to make mask wearing a condition of entry. This would include healthcare settings such as GP surgeries and hospitals.

If we don't do these things, there is a danger that things like face coverings will become normalised, and some people will consider it "polite" to wear one on the tube, for example.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If we don't do these things, there is a danger that things like face coverings will become normalised, and some people will consider it "polite" to wear one on the tube, for example.

What percentage of the disposable mask variety sold in the UK are manufactured in China?

 

[adc82140]

I also think that from the second anniversary of the lockdown in March, or possibly even sooner, we should stop publishing COVID figures every day.

Once a week would be sufficient, and even then we should eventually stop publishing them altogether.

It doesn't do people's mental health any good to constantly worry about the figures, and whether this metric or that metric is going up or down, and by how much.

Quite. All they do is work the media up in to a frenzy. If the government were genuinely that worried about numbers they would have been publishing them daily over the Christmas period.

 

[Eyersey468]

I can't help thinking that the true scale of COVID in China has been covered up.


According to Worldometer, China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has only had 102,314 COVID cases during the whole pandemic.

But the UK, with a population of 66 million, has had nearly 13 million cases.

If those figures are correct, then my name is Father Christmas.

Given the extent to which the Chinese government covered up the existence of COVID at the beginning of the pandemic , it's rather ironic that the lateral flow test kits distributed by the government say "COVID 19 - Made In China"

You can say that again.

Seek and you shall find, I imagine that in china they simply aren't testing healthy people with a cough. Their population is generally younger and less vulnerable. It wouldn't surprise me also if they still have lots of people dying of "pneumonia", and simply don't bother to investigate if it's covid or flu.

I suspect both are true

I

I think that as part of moving away from COVID and to a more normal society, were are going to have to stop the routine testing of asymptomatic people.

Quite possibly this will happen later this year.

For a little while longer, I think it would still be prudent to test people who are admitted to hospital, for whatever reason, but even this should stop eventually, perhaps by the end of the year if there hasn't been any new scariant.

I agree

I also think that from the second anniversary of the lockdown in March, or possibly even sooner, we should stop publishing COVID figures every day.

Once a week would be sufficient, and even then we should eventually stop publishing them altogether.

It doesn't do people's mental health any good to constantly worry about the figures, and whether this metric or that metric is going up or down, and by how much.

And then from a date in the spring, perhaps around Easter, we should not only get rid of all mask mandates, but actually make it illegal for any business or service to make mask wearing a condition of entry. This would include healthcare settings such as GP surgeries and hospitals.

If we don't do these things, there is a danger that things like face coverings will become normalised, and some people will consider it "polite" to wear one on the tube, for example.

I agree with this as well

 

[Shrop]

Notwithstanding any cover ups, any lockdowns that occur in China are very strict, e.g. a whole city will be closed off. People cannot leave their homes for any reason except one member of a household may go for food but even then not every day.

People with symptoms have been rounded up, and placed in large halls.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...avirus-lockdown-strategy-brutal-but-effective

Thanks for this, it confirms more or less what I'd already heard about their methods. It does make one wonder though, about people in the UK who complain about mental health concerns due to lockdowns - compared to China a lot of Brits just don't know when they're well off.

I expect to get slated by some for this comment, but when you know people who work in hospitals and what they have to go through to protect (and save) others, and you also hear people complaining about how stressful it is for them to wear a facemask, it does make me think of this ...


(Image shows person in scrubs, scrub gown, plastic apron, ffp3 mask, visor, hood and 2 pairs of gloves, and says people should stop moaning about only having to wear a mask to the shops)
(and yes, I know there are some with genuine reasons not to etc.)

 

[43066]

It does make one wonder though, about people in the UK who complain about mental health concerns due to lockdowns - compared to China a lot of Brits just don't know when they're well off.

That’s an absolutely outrageous thing to say in my opinion. So we should be grateful we’re not living in a evil dictatorship which places zero value on human life? Talk about the lowest common denominator.

It also suggests you have zero understanding of mental health issues.

 

[farleigh]

I think you are saying that we should not complain about wearing a facemask which does no good because some people have to wear surgical outfits in jobs that bear no relation to what most people in society do.

This makes no sense.

Is it not equivalent to saying we should all wear fire and rescue helmets because some people have to wear these and far more restrictive clothing when saving lives?

 

[Eyersey468]

While I can see shrop's point that the lockdowns could have been harsher, there has still been a lot of collateral damage caused by them. I am struggling to see the relevance of comparing the PPE a doctor has to wear to a placebo face covering worn in the shops etc.

 

[yorkie]

Thanks for this, it confirms more or less what I'd already heard about their methods. It does make one wonder though, about people in the UK who complain about mental health concerns due to lockdowns - compared to China a lot of Brits just don't know when they're well off.

I expect to get slated by some for this comment, but when you know people who work in hospitals and what they have to go through to protect (and save) others, and you also hear people complaining about how stressful it is for them to wear a facemask, it does make me think of this ...

(and yes, I know there are some with genuine reasons not to etc.)

Can you please edit your post to include a text alternative, so that your post is accessible to all (including any blind people reading this) please? Thanks

I disagree with it as a justifiable reason but it's all been discussed before in the effectiveness of masks thread; I've linked to that thread a few times before and here it is again: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...erings-and-the-mandating-of-their-use.219985/ ; if anyone missed the opportunity to contribute to that thread and would like to add something that hasn't already been mentioned, please feel free to report the most recent post in the thread, and include in your report a draft of what you'd like to add. We will be happy to consider reopening the thread


On another note, and partly prompted by @43066's mention of mental health issues, I am personally very relaxed now at how things are going and am reasonably confident we won't see more restrictions.

If we do (and I don't think that should happen) then I am confident they will be relatively small in scope and relatively short lasting.

However I am aware the current threat of more restrictions and indeed imposition of stricter restrictions in many places (including the whole UK apart from England) is causing angst, worry and frustration for some people and if anyone would like to talk to others who are in a similar situation, please feel free to send me a conversation message if you'd like to be added to our support group conversation (if you aren't already in it)

The only thing that really frustrates me now is the cold heart brigade as mentioned here before who are activists on social media sites such as Twitter who spread disinformation about vaccine effectiveness and many of whom are opposed to the natural end of the epidemic by reaching endemic equilibrium. They've lost the argument but they are continuing to rant as if Covid can somehow be eliminated or people can perpetually avoid infection, which is just completely and utterly absurd.

I was worried the Government would relent and give into the pro restriction/lockdown activists but I am now confident that is not going to happen.

But the current mood really is a strange one with many people feeling a sense of uncertainty and worry that they will be unable to live their lives in the coming days or weeks, which really isn't a healthy situation to be in.

 

[bramling]

If you actually believe this you are even more deluded than you appear.

You honestly think that the Government scientists have got together and decided to bring down the whole of society by making them wear masks introducing table service in bars and place some restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors.

Read that out loud to yourself and see if it sounds absolutely insane.
These are people who have dedicated their lives to helping people and curing disease they are not some sort of conspiracy they are good people and suggesting otherwise not only does them a disservice but also doesn’t help your arguments or promote your concerns as being reasonable

If we’re saying there aren’t unrelated agendas at play, for starters how do we explain the disfavourable treatment transport in London has received from the government, compared to elsewhere? It’s abundantly clear Covid has been used as a means of upsetting the apple-cart there, with it being no coincidence London is largely Labour. Likewise it’s pretty clear Sturgeon was pursuing an “we could have eliminated Covid were it not for England” narrative (last year, at least), and it doesn’t require to be a fully paid-up member of MENSA to work out what the intended conclusion of that one was.

As for the scientists, when Covid fades away they fade back into obscurity. Whilst I’m quite sure the likes of Whitty would be only too pleased to see the back of this, I’m not sure this applies across the board. Same with the vaccine manufacturers, or anyone else with a monetary interest in this.

Then there’s the rather sinister “Independent SAGE”. Exploring some of their backgrounds is very revealing indeed.

There are numerous potential reasons why some people have incentive to drag this onwards.

 

[DerekC]

Anyone who welcomes restrictions which barely affect them, but have a huge impact on disadvantaged people, is being selfish.

Their motives could vary from being scared and unable to think rationally (due to appalling messaging and effectively brainwashing), a reluctance to admit being wrong and a requirement to 'save face' and unwillingness to move on and admit the virus is becoming the 5th endemic human coronavirus, or a vested interest in restrictions (perhaps due to a desire to work from home, or their business benefits from restrictions).

Whatever their motives, we have to put our foot down now and say 'enough is enough'. If people don't want to get back to normal, they have no right to drag others down with them.

Of course people want to get back to normal. Suggesting that anyone who thinks that there should be a temporary increase in restrictions to flatten the Omicron wave is "unable to think rationally" is insulting. What we have at the moment is doubt amongst rational people as to the best way to get back to normal, given the big uncertainties that are still out there. It's about balance of risk and I find it ironic that those who argue for "liberty" and "freedom" are absolutely certain they are right and everyone else is wrong. They seem willing to impose their will on those who don't agree with them, irrespective of any potential downside. To me that's irrational behaviour.

 

[seagull]

Suggesting that anyone who thinks that there should be a temporary increase in restrictions to flatten the Omicron wave is "unable to think rationally" is insulting. What we have at the moment is doubt amongst rational people as to the best way to get back to normal, given the big uncertainties that are still out there.

Two years ago was the time for the uncertainty, and rightly so. Today is a very different outlook: not only do we know for a fact that Covid is not the big killer it was once posited to be, but we also know that the Omicron variant is the best thing to happen to the virus since it all started, backed up by data from South Africa - and here in the UK we are in a FAR better situation as regards vaccines and boosters, too. And now that the dodgy modelling has been outed for what it is, one would hope that further restrictions will continue to be seen as completely unnecessary and just causing bigger future problems of other kinds.

 

[Yew]

Thanks for this, it confirms more or less what I'd already heard about their methods. It does make one wonder though, about people in the UK who complain about mental health concerns due to lockdowns - compared to China a lot of Brits just don't know when they're well off.

There are starving children in africa, but I daresay you'll still be having your tea later.

I expect to get slated by some for this comment, but when you know people who work in hospitals and what they have to go through to protect (and save) others, and you also hear people complaining about how stressful it is for them to wear a facemask, it does make me think of this ...

View attachment 108099

(and yes, I know there are some with genuine reasons not to etc.)

Surely you understand the difference between measures used by professionals, only at work, who chose a career, and with a reasonable basis in evidence; and measures forced upon people with no option to choose alternatives, despite clear evidence that they don't work, and most pre-pandemic advice specifically recommending against them.

If anyone on the NHS is unhappy with the clothing provided to them, they can negotiate with their health and safety representatives, or find alternative employment where it is not a condition.

 

[Dent]

It does make one wonder though, about people in the UK who complain about mental health concerns due to lockdowns - compared to China a lot of Brits just don't know when they're well off.

I expect to get slated by some for this comment, but when you know people who work in hospitals and what they have to go through to protect (and save) others, and you also hear people complaining about how stressful it is for them to wear a facemask,

Your whole post is making the Fallacy of Relative Privation.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Some well-known Covid-19 connected faces in the New Years Honours List who saw much televisual coverage in 2021.

 

[Yew]

They seem willing to impose their will on those who don't agree with them, irrespective of any potential downside. To me that's irrational behaviour.

I don't want to impose my will on anyone, I simply don't want to be coerced under threat of law to do things that before the pandemic we specifically advised against, without any evidence that the measures work, their harms are outweighed by the benefits, and clear analysis showing that they are the least restrictive means possible.