Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Berliner]

I wonder how long it will be for the next variant of the virus to evolve, which country will be first to be so affected and will it be more virulant than the current strain?

I rather doubt many countries will be In a rush to declare they have found any new variants after the way South Africa, India etc have been been treated for finding them.

 

[duncanp]

More scaremongering from a "government scientist", and the I newspaper

Notice that the headline reads

Omicron COVID variant can spread through a "whiff of infected breath"

but in the article the quote is

It has ended up being so infectious that it almost needs just a whiff of infected breath and you could get infected.”

So, in other words, there is no conclusive proof that Omicron is spread by "just a whiff" of breath, and naturally, no proper studies to back this up.

They know that Boris Johnson is going to make a decision on restrictions next week, so they are piling on the pressure.

And they know that they won't get seriously challenged on BBC Breakfast.

Omicron can spread through a 'whiff of infected breath', Government scientist warns

Prof Peter Openshaw said he was "very concerned" about how NHS staff would cope with the soaring Omicron cases

inews.co.uk

Omicron Covid variant can spread through a ‘whiff of infected breath’, Government scientist warns​

Prof Peter Openshaw said he was “very concerned” about how NHS staff would cope with the soaring Omicron cases​

People only need to be exposed to “a whiff of infected breath” to catch the Omicron variant, a Government scientist has warned as England prepares for a restriction-free New Year’s Eve.

Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said it was “lucky” that Covid-19 “wasn’t this infectious when it first moved into human-to-human transmission.”

“Omicron is so infectious,” told BBC Breakfast.

“We’ve had several iterations of this virus going through different stages of its evolution. It has ended up being so infectious that it almost needs just a whiff of infected breath and you could get infected.”

He said that this would be particularly dangerous in countries with low vaccination rates.

“We’re in a relatively good position in countries like the UK but I think you have to remember that in many parts of the world the vaccination rates are only about 5 per cent, and they’re being exposed to this very infectious virus with very little protection.”

It comes after the Government gave the green light to New Year’s Eve parties in the England, despite Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales imposing some restrictions.


The UK marked a new record for daily coronavirus cases yesterday, recording 189,213 new positive tests over the previous 24 hours.

Prof Openshaw also warned that the healthcare system could be overwhelmed by soaring Omicron cases with the system’s capacity likely to be breached “quite quickly”.

He said that he was “very concerned” about how NHS staff would cope with the surging numbers of Omicron cases.

NHS absences due to Covid soared by 30 per cent in a week, up from 18,829 staff on December 19 to 24,632 on Boxing Day.

“I think we haven’t quite reached the threshold that was set by Government in terms of the NHS being overwhelmed, but it looks like that will be reached quite quickly,” he told BBC Breakfast.

“What I’m very concerned about is our NHS staff, my dear colleagues who have worked so, so hard all through the repeated waves of this infection. How are they going to cope?

“We need to really extend our care to them and give every support and do everything we can to make the NHS a great place to work, which of course it is in the main, but I’m really very concerned indeed for NHS staff.”

 

[bramling]

There is also a good slew of those in tfe medical-health complex with very left wing and authoritarian views, who see this as the greatest opportunity since the 1926 General Strike of remaking society in a top down authoritarian and communitarian way (with of course them as self ordained experts deciding the rules).

They will twist and contort every reason to lockdown. They are frightened, not of the virus but of the people, who as they see it, they lost control of in 2016 ending unelected technocratic government....

..and replacing it with control by MPs, mostly provincial who are bullyable by the unenlightened provincial reactionary electorate (who can throw them out every five years) and therefore are steadily dragging the government away from techocratic progress to backwards right wing reactionaryism.

Steve Baker and the 100 rebel backbenchers stopping lockdown is a primae face example to them, confirming their worst fears (as does voters in formerly rock solid labour seats voting for them).

JP Morgan doing their own stats and discrediting the public sector university doom forecasts, is also, to them, the unnacceptable face of capitalism becuse competition is destroying the reputation and monopoly of good and great progressive technocrats who should be heeded whether right or wrong because they are the right sort of enlightened, progressive people, not ghastly, greedy, city of London types.

I can only agree with all this. One might have seen it as a conspiracy theory last March, but unfortunately it really isn’t. In some cases at least this is exactly what’s going on.

 

[Simon11]

UK medicines regulator approves new Covid antiviral Paxlovid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59839584

More great news and even less need for restrictions going forward!

A promising new antiviral pill to treat symptomatic Covid has been approved by the UK medicines regulator.
The drug - Paxlovid - is intended for use soon after symptoms develop in people at high risk of severe disease.
In clinical trials it reduced the risk of hospitalisation or death by 89% in vulnerable adults.
The UK has ordered 2.75 million courses of the tablet which is partly based on an existing HIV medication developed by the US company Pfizer.
Paxlovid is the second new antiviral pill to be approved for Covid in the UK after a rival drug, molnupiravir, was given the green light by regulators in November.
Interim data from clinical trials in 1,219 vulnerable patients who caught the virus found that 0.8% of those given Paxlovid were later hospitalised, compared with 7% of patients who were given a placebo or dummy pill.

Further down in the article, you have to be amused at the French making another poor choice!

Molnupiravir, another antiviral pill, is already being offered to the most vulnerable adults in the UK - including cancer patients and transplant recipients. It is also being tested on a wider pool of 10,000 people over 50 years old as part of a major study led by Oxford University.
Earlier this month the UK increased its order for molnupiravir, made by the US drugs company Merck Sharp & Dohme, to a total of 2.3 million courses. On the same day, the French health authorities cancelled their entire order after what they described as disappointing clinical trial data.

 

[bramling]

I wonder how long it will be for the next variant of the virus to evolve, which country will be first to be so affected and will it be more virulant than the current strain?

Is it not the case that Coronaviruses tend to evolve in a fashion which makes them more spreadable but less severe, in other words what has happened with SARS-Cov-2?

If this holds true then it is quite possible we are actually on the home straight now, which will no doubt disappoint some people…

 

[Shrop]

I wonder how long it will be for the next variant of the virus to evolve, which country will be first to be so affected and will it be more virulant than the current strain?

Is the way this seems to be heading, that successive variants are spreading more quickly, but making people less ill (on average)?

 

[RPI]

No, this is what happens when politicians panic and demand that people with mild or no symptoms isolate for 10 days.

Quite right, I'm home now with Covid, had symptoms since boxing day, but I'd be fine to be at work now, certainly no worse than a cold. Had a couple of rough days but probably could have worked through the whole thing

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Is the way this seems to be heading, that successive variants are spreading more quickly, but making people less ill (on average)?

That's how viruses evolve; each subsequent variant will normally be more contagious but less virulent.

Each and every one of the 200+ rhinoviruses and 4 existing coronaviruses in the generic "common cold" will have started out in a similar way to SARS Cov 2 and then as they evolved, combined with a growing natural immune response... lo and behold, they don't cause any real problem.

Also... most pandemics last about two years, we are that point now with this one...

 

[yorksrob]

I rather doubt many countries will be In a rush to declare they have found any new variants after the way South Africa, India etc have been been treated for finding them.

I don't recall Britain getting preferential treatment for discovering the alpha variant either.

 

[brad465]

So, in other words, there is no conclusive proof that Omicron is spread by "just a whiff" of breath, and naturally, no proper studies to back this up.

They know that Boris Johnson is going to make a decision on restrictions next week, so they are piling on the pressure.

And they know that they won't get seriously challenged on BBC Breakfast.

Omicron can spread through a 'whiff of infected breath', Government scientist warns

Prof Peter Openshaw said he was "very concerned" about how NHS staff would cope with the soaring Omicron cases

inews.co.uk

If covid can be spread through "a whiff of breath", then it's more likely we'll see demands everyone wears hazmat suits outside their homes at all times than a realisation that there's nothing we can do to stop nature doing what nature has done for as long as life has existed on earth.

 

[yorkie]

From the Sky News live feed, the Chairman of the Council of the BMA (the doctors trade union) has made himself look a bit silly....

That appears to be the aim of hardline union people.

I wonder how long it will be for the next variant of the virus to evolve, which country will be first to be so affected and will it be more virulant than the current strain?

Feel free to wonder but there is no way to know any of this, though the chance of a new variant being more virulent is not particularly likely because that tends to be the opposite to how these sorts of viruses evolve.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make...

I don't think there was any point to it, which is why no explanation has been forthcoming.

I don't recall Britain getting preferential treatment for discovering the alpha variant either.

The French closed the border in retaliation.

Every country that identifies a new variant seems to have some sort of sanctions/measures imposed upon it, which is utterly absurd.

Is the way this seems to be heading, that successive variants are spreading more quickly, but making people less ill (on average)?

That's right; Sars-CoV-2 will go the same way as HCoV-OC43 (which likely caused a pandemic circa 1889)

More scaremongering from a "government scientist"...

Ah, Openshaw again. His name is rather ironic; he'd have everything closed indefinitely if he had his way. Having heard about him and his views before, I don't think I will read this article in any great detail; he is clearly an attention seeker.

 

[LAX54]

I do wish people could rise above this sort of thing. To everyone involved this is an unprecedented situation with a huge amount of uncertainty and it's not at all surprising that people have different reactions to it. What selfish motives could there be for wanting more restrictions? Anyone with any sense is worried. Some people are just plain scared.

Our neighbour wants a complete lockdown for at least 3 weeks, they think for some reason that, that will kill off the virus ! said she went to the cinemas last week, wore a mask, of course, but only lowered it when she took a mouthful of popcorn, then replaced the mask whilst she eat it etc !

 

[yorkie]

Is it not the case that Coronaviruses tend to evolve in a fashion which makes them more spreadable but less severe, in other words what has happened with SARS-Cov-2?

If this holds true then it is quite possible we are actually on the home straight now, which will no doubt disappoint some people…

It is a very worrying time for those who seek to continue with, or impose more restrictions and authoritarian measures; they have long fought against the idea of reaching high enough levels of population immunity that the virus reaches an endemic equilibrium, and the sooner that happens, the sooner they will lose the attention of their followers, the sooner they will fade into obscurity, and the sooner the general public will realise that from the day it arrived here, Sars-CoV-2 was always going to become the 5th endemic Coronavirus.

Omicron has accelerated the demise of the 'Zero Covid' mantra.

The likes of Christina Pagel, Deepti Gurdasani, Trish Greenhalgh, Eric Feigl-Ding and many more must know their reputations are on the line, the influence they have over people is under threat, and the attention they seek could be eroded.

Our neighbour wants a complete lockdown for at least 3 weeks, they think for some reason that, that will kill off the virus ! said she went to the cinemas last week, wore a mask, of course, but only lowered it when she took a mouthful of popcorn, then replaced the mask whilst she eat it etc !

It is amazing there are still small numbers of people who still believe in Zero Covid.

But the vast majority of the population now understands that this virus is going to go the same way as other viruses have gone; there is no way to eliminate it.

I believe the only country chasing a zero Covid strategy is China, however I am confident even China will cease that strategy at some point.

 

[Eyersey468]

Our neighbour wants a complete lockdown for at least 3 weeks, they think for some reason that, that will kill off the virus ! said she went to the cinemas last week, wore a mask, of course, but only lowered it when she took a mouthful of popcorn, then replaced the mask whilst she eat it etc !

So given that the 3 lockdowns we suffered didn't kill off the virus why does she think another one would?

 

[seagull]

So given that the 3 lockdowns we suffered didn't kill off the virus why does she think another one would?

Assuming rational thought on the part of lockdown advocates is very generous of you.

 

[duncanp]

So given that the 3 lockdowns we suffered didn't kill off the virus why does she think another one would?

So why is she going to the cinema if she wants a "complete lockdown"?

 

[bramling]

So why is she going to the cinema if she wants a "complete lockdown"?

The answer to that one is obvious. Complete lockdown for everyone else.

 

[duncanp]

The locktivists won't like this.

From today's figures, the number of patients in hospital in London have started to plateau (ie. rise less steeply)

There are 3,636 patients in hospital in London as of 08:00 today, which represents an increase of 159 on yesterday.

Three days ago, the number of patients in hospital in London was 384 higher than the previous day.

If you look at the "patients admitted to hospital" metric, it shows 511 admissions in the 24 hours until 08:00 today.

If you do the maths, if 511 people were admitted to hospital in the 24 hours until 08:00 today, and the increase in the number of patients in the 24 hours until 08:00 today is only 159, then just over 350 people must have been discharged in the same period.

Eventually the number of discharges per day will be greater than the number of admissions per day, and the total number of patients will start to fall.

Don't expect to see an analysis like this on Locktivist Sky News or the BBC, or in The Grauniad etc.

 

[Simon11]

The locktivists won't like this.

From today's figures, the number of patients in hospital in London have started to plateau (ie. rise less steeply)

There are 3,636 patients in hospital in London as of 08:00 today, which represents an increase of 159 on yesterday.

Three days ago, the number of patients in hospital in London was 384 higher than the previous day.

If you look at the "patients admitted to hospital" metric, it shows 511 admissions in the 24 hours until 08:00 today.

If you do the maths, if 511 people were admitted to hospital in the 24 hours until 08:00 today, and the increase in the number of patients in the 24 hours until 08:00 today is only 159, then just over 350 people must have been discharged in the same period.

Eventually the number of discharges per day will be greater than the number of admissions per day, and the total number of patients will start to fall.

Don't expect to see an analysis like this on Locktivist Sky News or the BBC, or in The Grauniad etc.

Hmm, I have to disagree with how you have presented your information and setting out analysis like the above, is what got us into this mess (not reflecting the real situation, where the number of patients in hospital is just as important as the number of people being discharged).

You paint a very rosy picture, however I see the landscape in London as:

• 3,637 patients in hospital who had covid as of 8am on 30th December 2021. These patients require dedicated infection care to ensure covid doesn't spread further across the hospital. They may not be primary being treated for covid, however they do require more resources to manage their care and treatment.
• The number of patients in hospital who require additional care to manage covid is increasing each day with little sign of plateauing and with current rates of covid which are still going up, we haven't reached the peak for cases yet
• 7,917 patients in hospital who had covid as of 8am on 18th January 2021. This was the highest reported day during the lockdown, and at the moment, we have reached 46% of this. Based on the news in January 2021, caring for nearly 8,000 patients was unsustainable for London hospital and other treatment at hospital was being paused.

Based on my understanding, hospitals should be able to cope at the moment (although we should really be analysing all patients in hospitals, not just covid), however if cases keep going up, then it won't be long before hospital have to stop regular treatment. Fingers crossed rates do actually 'plateau' and that there is a backlog of Christmas patients who have covid but no longer need to be at hospitals!

If you do the maths, if 511 people were admitted to hospital in the 24 hours until 08:00 today, and the increase in the number of patients in the 24 hours until 08:00 today is only 159, then just over 350 people must have been discharged in the same period.

Eventually the number of discharges per day will be greater than the number of admissions per day, and the total number of patients will start to fall.

Assuming 350 covid people are being discharged from hospital, this should be compared against the 3,636 patients in hospital at 8am on 30th December in London hospitals. Thus patients are spending around 10 days in hospital- noting that this will be skewed by patients in hospital who aren't in hospital directly for covid treatment and some poor patients who will likely be in hospital for an extended period.

 

[yorkie]

Hospitalisation data is very difficult to interpret because of the way it is measured, in particular the term "with Covid".

But here is more good news from South Africa:

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1476934480086634542

Encouraging news out of South Africa. Study data has suggested South Africa’s Omicron peak has indeed passed with NO major spike in deaths OR hospitalizations.

The study looked at the rate at which the fourth surge in cases progressed in the South African city of Tshwane, which researchers described as the "global epicentre" of the Omicron wave.

Researchers looked at hospital records from a Tshwane hospital system and compared them to prior surges. Based on their analysis, the omicron wave "spread and declined in the City of Tshwane with unprecedented speed peaking within 4 weeks of its commencement."

The study determined that the wave peaked during the week of Dec. 5th, roughly four weeks after an exponential increase in cases was observed. According to the researchers, peak hospital bed occupancy during the omicron wave was half of what was observed during the Delta wave,

and the distribution of patient ages was younger. Omicron currently accounts for 95% of sequenced cases in the Gauteng Province, where Tshwane is situated

"The changing clinical presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection is likely due to high levels of prior infection and vaccination coverage," researchers wrote, adding that roughly two thirds of Tshwane residents have some form of immunity from COVID-19, either from vaccination or prior infection.”

You can read the study here: https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122101256X and for more reading: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/world/south-africa-omicron-decline.html

 

[Andyh82]

Great news. It’s extraordinary how much the “mood music” has changed over the last few weeks. It really does feel like we’re through the worst of this now.

I think it’ll all kick off again with people demanding restrictions in the new year

I don’t think anyone wanted to stand up and be the one saying that Christmas or new year should be cancelled, whereas the likes of Starmer and scientists won’t mind stepping up again in the coming days as fewer would care much if their plans on January 7th or February 3rd are cancelled

 

[Drogba11CFC]

January 7th is Winchester City vs AFC Totton and as such is sacrosanct.

 

[duncanp]

Hmm, I have to disagree with how you have presented your information and setting out analysis like the above, is what got us into this mess (not reflecting the real situation, where the number of patients in hospital is just as important as the number of people being discharged).



Based on my understanding, hospitals should be able to cope at the moment (although we should really be analysing all patients in hospitals, not just covid), however if cases keep going up, then it won't be long before hospital have to stop regular treatment. Fingers crossed rates do actually 'plateau' and that there is a backlog of Christmas patients who have covid but no longer need to be at hospitals!

The number of patients in hospital on any given day equals <number in hospital yesterday> + <number admitted today> - <number discharged today>

So the number who are discharged every day is an important factor in determining the number of patients in hospital, which determines the resources required to care for them.

Cases in London are falling at the moment, and are plateauing in Birmingham and Manchester. In time, cases in Birmingham and Manchester will start to fall, and other local authorities in the UK will follow a similar pattern. Eventually the number of local authorities where cases are falling will start to outnumber the local authorities where cases are rising.

What happens with cases today will affect hospitalisations in about two weeks time, which will then determine the pressure on the NHS, and the extent to which this pressure is sustainable.

Overall I think we are approaching the peak of the Omicron wave, which seems to be following a similar pattern to South Africa.

So I think the number of patients in hospital will continue to rise until the middle of January, and then start to fall.

The problem with introducing extra restrictions now is that the effect of them will not kick in until after the middle of January. This is why I think that we may get away (in England at least) with just strengthened guidance for the next few weeks.

 

[21C101]

I don't recall Britain getting preferential treatment for discovering the alpha variant either.

It was fairly inevitable that if Covid got loose on the Isle of Sheppey it would soon be producing offspring with extra fingers spikes

 

[greyman42]

Overall I think we are approaching the peak of the Omicron wave, which seems to be following a similar pattern to South Africa.

So I think the number of patients in hospital will continue to rise until the middle of January, and then start to fall.

The problem with introducing extra restrictions now is that the effect of them will not kick in until after the middle of January. This is why I think that we may get away (in England at least) with just strengthened guidance for the next few weeks.

Which is why SAGE and the lockdown enthusiasts will be desperate for restrictions to be introduced in the new year, so they can claim it was the restrictions that caused the number of patients in hospital to fall.
They can also say that it proves that lockdowns/restrictions are the only way to get numbers down regarding any future rise in rates.

 

[43066]

I think it’ll all kick off again with people demanding restrictions in the new year

I don’t think anyone wanted to stand up and be the one saying that Christmas or new year should be cancelled, whereas the likes of Starmer and scientists won’t mind stepping up again in the coming days as fewer would care much if their plans on January 7th or February 3rd are cancelled

Equally I can’t really see there being much appetite to restrict the limited social activity that takes place in Jan Feb. Any hospitalisations stemming from Xmas and new year are well and truly “baked in”. The government are now clearly gambling on the wave of Omicron cases peaking quickly and falling away again, which there’s every sign it will do.

Quite honestly, even if we do see a big spike in hospitalisation and deaths, perhaps we just need to accept that’s an inevitable result of a global pandemic. We need to move away from the mindset that this virus can be controlled or eliminated; a view which still seems to be lingering on in some quarters. At this point of such high vaccine coverage things are as good as they ever will be and it’s now time to move on from this.

It was fairly inevitable that if Covid got loose on the Isle of Sheppey it would soon be producing offspring with extra fingers spikes

 

[duncanp]

Equally I can’t really see there being much appetite to restrict the limited social activity that takes place in Jan Feb. Any hospitalisations stemming from Xmas and new year are well and truly “baked in”. The government are now clearly gambling on the wave of Omicron cases peaking quickly and falling away again, which there’s every sign it will do.

Quite honestly, even if we do see a big spike in hospitalisation and deaths, perhaps we just need to accept that’s an inevitable result of a global pandemic. We need to move away from the mindset that this virus can be controlled or eliminated; a view which still seems to be lingering on in some quarters. At this point of such high vaccine coverage things are as good as they ever will be and it’s now time to move on from this.

This is the issue with imposing restrictions in January.

It is a quiet month for pubs and restaurants, so restrictions on hospitality would have the least impact economically.

But the other side of the coin is that the same restrictions would also have not much of an impact in reducing the spread of the virus.

If Boris Johnson was really worried about the figures, he would have imposed more restrictions ahead of tonight.

The news about the new anti viral drug being approved today is one more weapon in the fight against Omicron, and it tips the balance in favour of keeping the current level of restrictions, rather than imposing more.

 

[DustyBin]

I rather doubt many countries will be In a rush to declare they have found any new variants after the way South Africa, India etc have been been treated for finding them.

Don’t forget the good folk of south east England!

I believe the only country chasing a zero Covid strategy is China, however I am confident even China will cease that strategy at some point.

It’s interesting that one of (if not the) most authoritarian countries on earth has decided to pursue such a strategy……

 

[43066]

If Boris Johnson was really worried about the figures, he would have imposed more restrictions ahead of tonight.

Precisely.

He simply isn’t bothered about the figures anymore. The political calculus (which is the only thing he has ever cared about) has clearly shifted to favouring very light touch plan B restrictions and no more. That’s in no small part thanks to the Tory backbenchers who are providing the government’s only effective opposition!

 

[duncanp]

Precisely.

He simply isn’t bothered about the figures anymore. The political calculus (which is the only thing he has ever cared about) has clearly shifted to favouring very light touch plan B restrictions and no more. That’s in no small part thanks to the Tory backbenchers who are providing the government’s only effective opposition!

I also think he enjoys sticking two fingers up at Mark Dripford and Mrs Murrell, as do large numbers of people who live in Wales and Scotland.