ORR report 10 October with average ages of fleets by Operator

[Snow1964]

ORR has published new report
lots of fleet data, include percentages electric, diesel, bimode, loco hauled

also includes average age by operator at 31 March 2024

Chiltern 30.9 years
South West 24.4 years
Scotrail 24.3 years
Northern 23.6 years
East Midlands 22.8 years
Cross Country 22.7 years
South Eastern 22.4 years
Grand Central 22.2 years
C2C 19.7 years
Avanti West Coast 19.5 years
Transport for Wales 19.0 years
Great Western 15.0 years
Merseyrail 13.8 years
West Midlands 13.4 years
Transpennine 11.6 years
Govia Thameslink 11.3 years
London overground 9.6 years
London North Eastern 8.7 years
Elizabeth line 7.6 years
Heathrow Express 7.6 years
Caledonian sleeper 6.2 years
Hull trains 4.3 years
Greater Anglia 3.9 years
Lumo 2.8 years

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/gcdkwb0v/infrastructure-and-assets-2023-24.pdf

Of the 8 operators with fleets averaging over 20 years, only 2 (SWR and EMR) have any new trains on order. Sort of reflects the paralysis the railways are now in.

 

[185]

A better table for the ORR to entertain us with would be time taken by train builder to get trains from order book to first passenger run. One operator's trains arrived with birds nests and several years worth of greenery sprouting from the roof.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Of course this table manages to hide the fact that some ToCs have large amounts of very old stock that in some cases is literally falling to bits, because they also happen to have newer stock elsewhere. GWR and TfW come to mind there.

 

[43066]

ORR has published new report
lots of fleet data, include percentages electric, diesel, bimode, loco hauled

also includes average age by operator at 31 March 2024

Chiltern 30.9 years
South West 24.4 years
Scotrail 24.3 years
Northern 23.6 years
East Midlands 22.8 years
Cross Country 22.7 years
South Eastern 22.4 years
Grand Central 22.2 years
C2C 19.7 years
Avanti West Coast 19.5 years
Transport for Wales 19.0 years
Great Western 15.0 years
Merseyrail 13.8 years
West Midlands 13.4 years
Transpennine 11.6 years
Govia Thameslink 11.3 years
London overground 9.6 years
London North Eastern 8.7 years
Elizabeth line 7.6 years
Heathrow Express 7.6 years
Caledonian sleeper 6.2 years
Hull trains 4.3 years
Greater Anglia 3.9 years
Lumo 2.8 years

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/gcdkwb0v/infrastructure-and-assets-2023-24.pdf

Of the 8 operators with fleets averaging over 20 years, only 2 (SWR and EMR) have any new trains on order. Sort of reflects the paralysis the railways are now in.

Albeit we know SWR has an entire new fleet of trains about to enter service that will reduce their average age significantly. Merseyrail is (AIUI) still part way through a new fleet introduction that will completely replace their old fleet so they will soon be one of the very newest.

I don’t think those figures are particularly shocking considering train lifespans.

 

[Horizon22]

We need GBR - or whoever - to return / develop a planned stock cascade / new stock plan every 5 years so that once fleet starts getting to >20 years old, there are clear plans to start tenders for replacement.

 

[JonathanH]

We need GBR - or whoever - to return / develop a planned stock cascade / new stock plan every 5 years so that once fleet starts getting to >20 years old, there are clear plans to start tenders for replacement.

I'd hope that stock can last 30 years before there need to be clear plans for replacement. Rolling stock generally has a life of 35 to 40 years.

Ongoing review of what is needed to keep the fleets in good condition from 20 years, including mid-life refurbishment, might well be appropriate.

 

[Horizon22]

I'd hope that stock can last 30 years before there need to be clear plans for replacement. Rolling stock generally has a life of 35 to 40 years.

Ongoing review of what is needed to keep the fleets in good condition from 20 years, including mid-life refurbishment, might well be appropriate.

Okay we can argue on the timings, but the idea for a 5-10 year plan for all rolling stock reviewed on a periodic basis still stands.

 

[norbitonflyer]

It would be interesting tpo see how they have moved. Merseyrail would have been right at the top of that list a year previously, with all its roling stock well over 40 years old, and will be at the bottom in next year's stats when all the 507/508s have gone.

 

[skyhigh]

I don’t think those figures are particularly shocking considering train lifespans.

Looking at the list it pretty much appears that they follow the pattern of getting to the top of the table, then get new trains and drop down. A few years ago Cal Sleeper would have been way out on top, with LNER and GA being near the top of the list. Now they're near the bottom. TPE, Thameslink/GTR and Hull Trains have also had a lot of new stuff in the last few years.

ScotRail and Northern are both in the process of ordering new units, EMR will be getting their Hitachi units soon.

It would be interesting to see similar figures for other countries but I suspect given the expected lifetime of a train the figures aren't that unusual.

 

[Snow1964]

I'd hope that stock can last 30 years before there need to be clear plans for replacement. Rolling stock generally has a life of 35 to 40 years.

There are plenty of fleets over 30 years old without any clear plan for replacement, ok perhaps a vague idea on DfT procurement sheet (but not a definite order being delivered between X and Y date)

over 30 years old includes :
150, 153, 155, 157, 158, 159, 165, 166, 254, 318, 319, 320, 455, 465, 466, mk3 (day & Sleeper), plus locos like 37, 57 etc

Some of these are over 35 years (and in some cases over 40 years), still without replacements on order.

 

[Horizon22]

There are plenty of fleets over 30 years old without any clear plan for replacement, ok perhaps a vague idea on DfT procurement sheet (but not a definite order being delivered between X and Y date)

150, 153, 155, 157, 158, 159, 165, 166, 254, 455, 465, 466, mk3 (day & Sleeper), plus locos like 37, 57 etc

Some of these are over 35 years (and in some cases over 40 years), still without replacements on order.

Exactly. Bearing in mind the tender process, build time, delivery time, fault-free testing and driver training, you need to be looking at a clear timeframe for stock over 25 years old.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Exactly. Bearing in mind the tender process, build time, delivery time, fault-free testing and driver training, you need to be looking at a clear timeframe for stock over 25 years old.

Problem is feast or famine does no one any good, the plans need to be to order a set number every year, not necessarily about fleet replacement but if you order every year and drop the oldest all the time you get constancy.

 

[sprinterguy]

Interesting to see Chiltern rise to the top of the list there, reflecting their being one of the last routes to see fleet investment under BR and the very first to order a new fleet following the 1,064 day privatisation drought. Yet their trains always still seem well kept and maintained to me, and their oldest core 168s have commenced a refurbishment. Small number of mark 3 rakes will push the average up a bit further as well.

Scotrail's average has no doubt been bumped up in recent years by their HST fleet: Between power cars and trailers, that's a lot of older vehicles relative to the newer (but now middle-aged) 170s they released.

Also interesting, personally, to note the "big bang" shiny new fleets of early privatisation betraying their increasing age, now: Majority operators of Turbostars, Adelantes, Voyagers and Pendolinos all in the ascendancy now, despite me still considering all of the above to still be "Quite new".

And a reasonably high average can be expected for any operator with a goodly number of ageing Sprinter units, of varying descriptions, on their books, of course.

Transpennine has done very well since being split off from the ATN/FNW franchises: Since 2004, I don't think their fleet age has ever got above about 14 years before they've received an influx of brand new stock (I believe that there's currently another rolling stock tender pending).

 

[Kite159]

There are plenty of fleets over 30 years old without any clear plan for replacement, ok perhaps a vague idea on DfT procurement sheet (but not a definite order being delivered between X and Y date)

over 30 years old includes :
150, 153, 155, 157, 158, 159, 165, 166, 254, 318, 319, 320, 455, 465, 466, mk3 (day & Sleeper), plus locos like 37, 57 etc

Some of these are over 35 years (and in some cases over 40 years), still without replacements on order.

Unless you mean the converted 769s, the 319s are long gone from passenger services

Also the 455s on SWR are due to be replaced with the late running 701s so are not in the same boat as the other BR era stock.

 

[Snow1964]

It would be interesting tpo see how they have moved. Merseyrail would have been right at the top of that list a year previously, with all its roling stock well over 40 years old, and will be at the bottom in next year's stats when all the 507/508s have gone.

It's there as figure 2.3 with explanations in table 2.1
Merseyrail average age fell by 7.9 years

Many Operators age went up exactly 1 year (as no change in stock)

Biggest increase was average age +2.1 years for Transpennine as it withdrew its young mk5 fleet

 

[sprinterguy]

Biggest increase was average age +2.1 years for Transpennine as it withdrew its young mk5 fleet

Ah, yeah I thought that'd push up the average this year. If the class 68s are included in the calculation then that small fleet was equivalent to about half of the total 185 fleet, on a vehicle by vehicle basis.

 

[JonathanH]

Problem is feast or famine does no one any good, the plans need to be to order a set number every year, not necessarily about fleet replacement but if you order every year and drop the oldest all the time you get constancy.

This is another factor in all these people who claim that the rest of the BR trains all need to be replaced straightaway rather than spreading the orders over a period of time. Yes, the BR fleets are on watch for replacement, but there will be another famine immediately after that if there is a quick feast, as there is nothing due for replacement afterwards for nearly a decade.

 

[Snow1964]

Thought I would combine the top 8 by age (those with average age over 20 years old) with other data from table 1 to show scale of replacement

Chiltern 30.9 years
205 vehicles (84% diesel, 16% hauled)
no replacement currently authorised

South West 24.4 years
1446 vehicles (93% electric, 7% diesel)
701s (750 vehicles) very slowly entering service
455s (about 300-330) vehicles leaving, 68 vehicles 458s leaving

Scotrail 24.3 years
1039 vehicles (62% electric, 26% diesel, 11% hauled/HST)
no replacement yet, but tender expected soon

Northern 23.6 years
910 vehicles (29% electric, 67% diesel, 4% bimode)
no replacement yet, tender issued and changed

East Midlands 22.8 years
381 vehicles (22% electric, 78% diesel)
Class 810 bimodes due 2025-26, DMU replacement unknown
143 class 222 vehicles expected to leave

Cross Country 22.7 years
332 vehicles (100% diesel)
no replacement authorised, some additional ex Avanti

South Eastern 22.4 years
1694 vehicles (100% electric)
no replacement currently authorised, tender pending

Grand Central 22.2 years
60 vehicles (100% diesel)
replacement not yet known

 

[RealTrains07]

This is another factor in all these people who claim that the rest of the BR trains all need to be replaced straightaway rather than spreading the orders over a period of time. Yes, the BR fleets are on watch for replacement, but there will be another famine immediately after that if there is a quick feast, as there is nothing due for replacement afterwards for nearly a decade.

Exactly. Stock replacement needs to be spread out instead of doing entire fleet replacements like what GA did in a single go.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Thought I would combine the top 8 by age (those with average age over 20 years old) with other data from table 1 to show scale of replacement


South West 24.4 years
1446 vehicles (93% electric, 7% diesel)
701s (750 vehicles) very slowly entering service
455s (about 300-330) vehicles leaving, 68 vehicles 458s leaving

The 458s were actually shown in the stats (see page 8) as having left in the year to March 2024 (although some remained in service). They are back in service now (as 458/4s), but may go again. But as they are very close to the average age of the SWR fleet (built between 1998 and 2000, so c24.4 years old), their comings and goings will have little effect on the fleet's average age.

 

[gazr]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics". Lumo coming out on top with a fleet of 5 (newish) units shows how useless these statistics are.

 

[JonathanH]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics". Lumo coming out on top with a fleet of 5 (newish) units shows how useless these statistics are.

It is factually correct though. As you say, I don't know what point these statistics are meant to prove though. It is just a statement of DfT policy as to which routes are deemed appropriate to receive cascaded, rather than new rolling stock.

 

[Snow1964]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics". Lumo coming out on top with a fleet of 5 (newish) units shows how useless these statistics are.

I think you are focusing on wrong end of the tables.

For me it is that even if orders were placed before Christmas (and that is questionable), not likely to see anything new before 2027 (for a follow on design), or nearer 5 years for brand new designs allowing for testing etc.

So allowing for fleets in delivery 196, 197, 701, 730, 777, 805, 807, 810 etc you can assume most of the others will just be 3 years older in 2027. Drags a few fleets over the nominal mid life (17.5 - 20 years assuming nominal 35 to 40 year life), and takes many over 25 year average

 

[43066]

I think you are focusing on wrong end of the tables.

For me it is that even if orders were placed before Christmas (and that is questionable), not likely to see anything new before 2027 (for a follow on design), or nearer 5 years for brand new designs allowing for testing etc.

So allowing for fleets in delivery 196, 197, 701, 730, 777, 805, 807, 810 etc you can assume most of the others will just be 3 years older in 2027. Drags a few fleets over the nominal mid life (17.5 - 20 years assuming nominal 35 to 40 year life), and takes many over 25 year average

And why are mid life units an issue?

That’s often the point in their lifecycle when they’re at their most reliable (see the “bathtub curve”) and it seems, at least amongst the membership of this forum, that “new” fleets are fairly unpopular in terms of comfort.

As shown by the graph on page 4 average fleet age is decreasing and is currently the lowest it’s been since around 2010.

 

[Snow1964]

And why are mid life units an issue?

Not mid life per se, just they are often left in limbo, and second half of life isn't planned properly, so that a mid life refresh / light refurb (rather than refurb suitable for 15-20 years) happens.

Take something like the 166s, just had a refresh at 32 years old, but because of their intensive use, regularly getting breakdowns because they weren't fixed to a level (ie troublesome components replaced) that would make them reliable until 2030-2032. You could argue the refresh was light because it was at three quarter life, but if you use that argument then difficult to explain why the mid life work didn't fix the problems so they could be run to 40 years old. Thats what I mean by not proper planning at mid life.

 

[XCTurbostar]

Its kind of funny that Merseyrail has such a high percentage considering it is pulled up by just a handful of 507s!

 

[DanNCL]

Might be worth noting that if including Tyne & Wear Metro, which does operate services on the National Network albeit not under NRCOT, they would have the highest average age at well over 40. Though granted, new trains are on order.

This is another factor in all these people who claim that the rest of the BR trains all need to be replaced straightaway rather than spreading the orders over a period of time. Yes, the BR fleets are on watch for replacement, but there will be another famine immediately after that if there is a quick feast, as there is nothing due for replacement afterwards for nearly a decade.

Yes there is, by that point we’ll be into the 2030s which’ll mean the Voyagers and the majority of the Turbostars will be due replacement. DMUs have a design life up around 30 years, just because the later BR DMU types have been forced to last longer than that doesn’t mean all DMUs should be pushed to run past the end of their design life.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Its kind of funny that Merseyrail has such a high percentage considering it is pulled up by just a handful of 507s!

The figures are for March, when there were rather more 507s, and only a few 777s, in service. The average of 13.8 would suggest the fleet was about 30% old stock by that date (7x0+3x45)/10 = 13.5

 

[DanNCL]

The figures are for March, when there were rather more 507s, and only a few 777s, in service.

Even then there weren’t that many 507s left and the 508s had all gone, most services were 777s.

 

[RailWonderer]

It's still worrying GWR has nothing planned other than the vague Project Churchward to replace its 150s and 158s, and that Scotrail has no plans to replace its 318s, 320s and 156s, and Northern the same with its Sprinters. The Networkers are also a big concern, then the Turbos for the difficulty of finding parts for them. Given how long tendering takes to delivery after testing and I can see a lot of problems, short forms and cancellations in the coming years on these parts of the network. GA in its last year before the Stadlers replaced Sprinters and 90s + mk3s was a disaster day in day out with cancellations and short forms due to breakdowns and unreliability.

Things will get a lot worse.