Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[Sleepy]

1902 Liverpool St. to Norwich (12 coaches) certainly seemed back to pre- Covid levels or more tonight, about 85% seating capacity with some electing to stand in rear half of train (bear in mind Stadler capacity greater than old Load 9/10 hauled stock). I would say a shift to spending at least 3 days a week in office now for many in London ??
Station car parks along GE main line on weekdays seem much fuller over last 3 weeks notably Diss, Stowmarket, Manningtree, Colchester & Shenfield for example.

 

[cuccir]

Interesting, thanks all. Seems widespread!

I have made a program to generate a graph for the peak average loading for every train for which this data is available for today. Here are the graphs generated.

These are very interesting! If I read them right they're showing a number of 100% loaded trains on main commuter services, with the exception of London Overground, in the peaks? I presume things would have been busier again in 2019 but evidence that we are now back to properly busy commuting services.

 

[Robski_]

These are very interesting! If I read them right they're showing a number of 100% loaded trains on main commuter services, with the exception of London Overground, in the peaks? I presume things would have been busier again in 2019 but evidence that we are now back to properly busy commuting services.

Yes. Unfortunately I do not have the 2019 data to compare this data with, so I can't say whether it is better/worse now.

The London Overground data is a bit incomplete, there are only 576 services that have this data supplied out of over 1,800 timetabled (inc. ECS). The data also depends on how each operator counts/measures train loading, and I think LO are being slightly optimistic. Therefore I don't think many conclusions can be drawn from the data for LO.

 

[dk1]

1902 Liverpool St. to Norwich (12 coaches) certainly seemed back to pre- Covid levels or more tonight, about 85% seating capacity with some electing to stand in rear half of train (bear in mind Stadler capacity greater than old Load 9/10 hauled stock). I would say a shift to spending at least 3 days a week in office now for many in London ??
Station car parks along GE main line on weekdays seem much fuller over last 3 weeks notably Diss, Stowmarket, Manningtree, Colchester & Shenfield for example.

Don’t forget there should be a 19:00 Norwich (Ni90 service) departing directly in front of this train. Yes the capacity of a 745 is greater as you say. Almost back to previous levels on most GEML intercity services but a little way to go yet especially commuter wise. Trains such as the 07:05 up is now a regular for being F&S before arriving Colchester with calls for the 06:48 to return. Fleet availability is still an issue on this route though.

 

[SE%Traveller]

Passengers would be left behind at Herne Hill & Loughborough Junction daily. You would have to force your way on. Certainly 8am-9am. Both of those stations had a more frequent peak service in 2019.

Not saying London is not busy, but it’s nothing like 2019 in my experience.

Ditto on the Catford Loop. Churn at Denmark Hill usually means that being left behind unlikely. but i can observe my fellow cattle on the Occassion we're on the Holborns in tandem...

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Don’t forget there should be a 19:00 Norwich (Ni90 service) departing directly in front of this train. Yes the capacity of a 745 is greater as you say. Almost back to previous levels on most GEML intercity services but a little way to go yet especially commuter wise. Trains such as the 07:05 up is now a regular for being F&S before arriving Colchester with calls for the 06:48 to return. Fleet availability is still an issue on this route though.

I suspect we will be looking at the extra peak trains in the may 23 timetable changes as although since covid WFH has been a thing reducing commuters, I think going forward it will actually increase as for example myself working in London has become more practical with hybrid work and I think that is true for a lot of people

 

[PGAT]

I think GTR is basically back to where it was, service wise?

Absolutely not.

 

[43066]

Absolutely not.

Others have confirmed that the base timetable is essentially back to normal, less a few peak extras and the current cancellations which are due to crew shortages.

 

[87015]

Others have confirmed that the base timetable is essentially back to normal, less a few peak extras and the current cancellations which are due to crew shortages.

Thameslink GN might be, most of the rest is much more cut.

 

[PGAT]

Others have confirmed that the base timetable is basically back, less a few peak extras and the current cancellations which are due to crew shortages.

I cannot confirm.

Changes since 2019 to Southern's timetable:

London Bridge - Coulsdon Town (later curtailed to East Croydon) has been axed.
London Bridge - Beckenham Junction is now 5 coaches all day instead of 8.
London Bridge - Caterham (now curtailed to East Croydon) is also 5 coaches instead of 8.
London Victoria - Sutton services are now only in the peak and some are 8 coaches instead of 10.
All the peaks from Sutton - London Bridge are gone (previously 2tph around the loop line via Peckham Rye, as well as some via Forest Hill that ran fast from West Croydon to Wallington, and stopping via Norbury. The London Bridge - Dorking and Guildford peaks are also axed)
London Victoria - Epsom is now gone, with the Horsham/Dorkings stopping via Mitcham Junction instead of running fast.
London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham corner peaks are gone.
London Victoria - Seaford directs are gone.
Brighton - Hove shuttles are 1tph.
Brighton - Lewes shuttles are gone off peak.
Brighton - West Worthing is gone.
London Victoria - East Grinsteads run 1tph off-peak.
East Croydon - Milton Keynes has been cut to Watford Junction/Hemel Hempstead and run as only 4 carriages.

Among many other things.

 

[43066]

Thameslink GN might be, most of the rest is much more cut.

I cannot confirm.

Changes since 2019 to Southern's timetable:

London Bridge - Coulsdon Town (later curtailed to East Croydon) has been axed.
London Bridge - Beckenham Junction is now 5 coaches all day instead of 8.
London Bridge - Caterham (now curtailed to East Croydon) is also 5 coaches instead of 8.
London Victoria - Sutton services are now only in the peak and some are 8 coaches instead of 10.
All the peaks from Sutton - London Bridge are gone (previously 2tph around the loop line via Peckham Rye, as well as some via Forest Hill that ran fast from West Croydon to Wallington, and stopping via Norbury. The London Bridge - Dorking and Guildford peaks are also axed)
London Victoria - Epsom is now gone, with the Horsham/Dorkings stopping via Mitcham Junction instead of running fast.
London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham corner peaks are gone.
London Victoria - Seaford directs are gone.
Brighton - Hove shuttles are 1tph.
Brighton - Lewes shuttles are gone off peak.
Brighton - West Worthing is gone.
London Victoria - East Grinsteads run 1tph off-peak.
East Croydon - Milton Keynes has been cut to Watford Junction/Hemel Hempstead and run as only 4 carriages.

Among many other things.

I’ll admit I’m thinking here of TL…

 

[PGAT]

I’ll admit I’m thinking here of TL…

Still not sunshine and rainbows there either.

The Littlehampton and East Grinstead peaks are lacking, and the Catford line only has 2tph instead of 4, and trains only go as far as Blackfriars off-peak.

 

[Bald Rick]

I suspect we will be looking at the extra peak trains in the may 23 timetable changes

No chance - May 23 is already sorted.


broader point: this time of year, ie this week to end of November, is always the busiest time of the year for commuting. So whilst the trains may feel like they are busier than they have been for some time*, proportionally compared to the same time of year Pre covid, it is still less than 80%.

*Albeit actually they are not as busy as they were the week before last. At network level.

 

[Alfie1014]

Don’t forget there should be a 19:00 Norwich (Ni90 service) departing directly in front of this train. Yes the capacity of a 745 is greater as you say. Almost back to previous levels on most GEML intercity services but a little way to go yet especially commuter wise. Trains such as the 07:05 up is now a regular for being F&S before arriving Colchester with calls for the 06:48 to return. Fleet availability is still an issue on this route though.

But the Nin90 services only actually ran for a few months before COVID hit I’m unconvinced that 2 long trains at that time are really needed, however the 18:10 is still missing and would fill the 40 minute gap between the 17:50 and 18:30. From December the 17:30 down gains a Colchester stop meaning only the 17:00 down is the only train all day that doesn’t stop there. Also from December there is an extra 07:00 up from Clacton and 2 extra high peak extras from Southend Vic restoring the almost 10 minute service through the morning peak from 07:00 until 08:11.

My bell-weather is the car park at Ingatestone, around 85-90% full on TWTho but much quieter on Mondays and especially Fridays.

 

[dk1]

But the Nin90 services only actually ran for a few months before COVID hit I’m unconvinced that 2 long trains at that time are really needed, however the 18:10 is still missing and would fill the 40 minute gap between the 17:50 and 18:30. From December the 17:30 down gains a Colchester stop meaning only the 17:00 down is the only train all day that doesn’t stop there. Also from December there is an extra 07:00 up from Clacton and 2 extra high peak extras from Southend Vic restoring the almost 10 minute service through the morning peak from 07:00 until 08:11.

My bell-weather is the car park at Ingatestone, around 85-90% full on TWTho but much quieter on Mondays and especially Fridays.

Ni90 resumed again during the later days of the Pandemic with the 08:00 (East Anglian) from Norwich. This ran for several months during 2021. The 17:00 also ran for a while as did its connecting 18:00 Ipswich-Norwich serving Stowmarket & Diss. The shuttle was booked for a 720 split off an earlier service from Liverpool St but was always worked by a 755.

The 09:00 & 19:00 (The Broadsman) Ni90s have never run since the planned May 2020 timetable change.

 

[Horizon22]

London has hit a “post-pandemic high”

Beginning of the end of WFH? Tube and Elizabeth line hit new records

Number of Underground journeys on Monday hits highest level in more than two years

www.standard.co.uk

The number of passengers using the Tube on Mondays has hit a post-pandemic record, latest Government figures have revealed.

There were 2.79 million trips on the Underground on Monday this week, October 62 - equating to 72 per cent of “normal” travel levels, according to the Department for Transport.

 

[PGAT]

With the cost of living crisis I doubt many would want to work from home anymore.

 

[Bikeman78]

I cannot confirm.

Changes since 2019 to Southern's timetable:

London Bridge - Coulsdon Town (later curtailed to East Croydon) has been axed.
London Bridge - Beckenham Junction is now 5 coaches all day instead of 8.
London Bridge - Caterham (now curtailed to East Croydon) is also 5 coaches instead of 8.
London Victoria - Sutton services are now only in the peak and some are 8 coaches instead of 10.
All the peaks from Sutton - London Bridge are gone (previously 2tph around the loop line via Peckham Rye, as well as some via Forest Hill that ran fast from West Croydon to Wallington, and stopping via Norbury. The London Bridge - Dorking and Guildford peaks are also axed)
London Victoria - Epsom is now gone, with the Horsham/Dorkings stopping via Mitcham Junction instead of running fast.
London Victoria - Caterham/Tattenham corner peaks are gone.
London Victoria - Seaford directs are gone.
Brighton - Hove shuttles are 1tph.
Brighton - Lewes shuttles are gone off peak.
Brighton - West Worthing is gone.
London Victoria - East Grinsteads run 1tph off-peak.
East Croydon - Milton Keynes has been cut to Watford Junction/Hemel Hempstead and run as only 4 carriages.

Among many other things.

It seems a bit random. For example, East Grinstead was half hourly off peak from 1987 until March 2020. Now it's hourly. In 1990 the Horsham to Barnham service was hourly, it's four per hour now. Barnham to Chichester was (I think) three trains per hour in 1990, it's still five per hour at the moment.

 

[Bald Rick]

London has hit a “post-pandemic high”

Beginning of the end of WFH? Tube and Elizabeth line hit new records

Number of Underground journeys on Monday hits highest level in more than two years

www.standard.co.uk

Elizabeth Line hits a record high, less than 5 months after opening. Who’d have thunk it?

As said in another thread (possibly this one), this is always the busiest time of year on the rails.

 

[Bikeman78]

With the cost of living crisis I doubt many would want to work from home anymore.

Pros and cons I guess. If you save 4000 quid on a season ticket, you'd need to burn a lot of gas to equal that. On the other hand, it costs me pennies to cycle to work so the extra gas would definitely cost more now. Also, for people that live alone, going to work can do wonders for mental health, especially if the rising cost of living means fewer nights out.

 

[Jamesrob637]

With the cost of living crisis I doubt many would want to work from home anymore.

Hybrid seems to be the way forward.

 

[Horizon22]

Elizabeth Line hits a record high, less than 5 months after opening. Who’d have thunk it?

As said in another thread (possibly this one), this is always the busiest time of year on the rails.

What a shock! I have seen queues at some stations though although normally after a sudden rush in our out due to disruption / 2 trains arriving at once.

You did, and the data backs it up (this thread by the way just a few posts up.)

 

[DelW]

Pros and cons I guess. If you save 4000 quid on a season ticket, you'd need to burn a lot of gas to equal that. On the other hand, it costs me pennies to cycle to work so the extra gas would definitely cost more now. Also, for people that live alone, going to work can do wonders for mental health, especially if the rising cost of living means fewer nights out.

Conversely in multi-occupation houses, the house may need to be kept warm all day for other occupants anyway. I'm retired, but my partner is fully WFH to avoid the cost and stress of a 45 - 60 minute motorway and main road drive each way.

Even if she wanted to go back to full time in the office, her department has been moved to an office with only enough "hot desks" for about half their number to be in at once. In practice, those living nearby work in the office frequently, while those living furthest away are mostly full time WFH. That's unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

The work she does was almost entirely conducted by phone and email even before covid, and with the addition of MS Teams, it really makes little or no difference where she works from.

 

[Smidster]

With the cost of living crisis I doubt many would want to work from home anymore.

I suspect that for most people WFH is still going to be cheaper than the commute (at least where that involves public transport) but obviously closer than it has been

in addition to things like comfort / hybrid benefits there may also be a bit of "showing yourself" at a time when the economy is tanking and firms are going to face problems.

Definitely busier though - was standing only on 6:32 Airedale service into Leeds earlier this week which hasn't happened for a long time.

 

[arb]

broader point: this time of year, ie this week to end of November, is always the busiest time of the year for commuting.

I don't know why, but that piece of information absolutely fascinates me! Is there any research/data into why this is the case? I can think of two possible reasons off the top of my head:

• It doesn't seem like a popular time to go on holiday (Christmas/New Year are obvious holidays, Feb/March seems to be popular skiing holiday times, then Easter in March/April is obvious, then you have May/June/September as summer holiday for people without kids, and July/August as school summer holiday)?
• Lots of graduates starting new jobs in September/October and haven't moved house to somewhere local to the job yet, or perhaps they buy their first car after a few months of full-time pay and stop using the train?

 

[RPI]

There's been some passenger counts recently on the Exmouth branch (which in lots of ways is the Exeter suburban railway) by the local rail users' group, and passenger numbers are at higher levels than pre-covid.

Other local trains in Devon feel equally busy, with standing in the peaks on 3 car 158s to Barnstaple & 4 car 150s to Paignton. Meanwhile, the recently re-opened line to Okehampton is supposedly carrying twice as many passengers as forecast......

This is certainly my observations too, at Exeter Central the other morning we actually had to open the gateline three times due to sheer volume when the 0818 SWR arrives with an Exmouth and a Paignton a couple of minutes either side. Central staff, myself and two other inspectors we still managed to conduct a manual check further down near the ticket office! The Devon metro services recovered quite quickly both peak an off-peak as most employment in the area is hospitality/retail.
Its interesting that Paignton services are all very well loaded compared to pre covid, despite pre covid the service being predominantly hourly whereas its now half hourly and all 3/4 car (booked).

The Okehampton has also become busy in peak time since the start of term, I think this is probably that when the Devon County Council scholar passes were re-issued they have done so on rail rather than bus.

 

[Bantamzen]

I suspect that for most people WFH is still going to be cheaper than the commute (at least where that involves public transport) but obviously closer than it has been

in addition to things like comfort / hybrid benefits there may also be a bit of "showing yourself" at a time when the economy is tanking and firms are going to face problems.

Definitely busier though - was standing only on 6:32 Airedale service into Leeds earlier this week which hasn't happened for a long time.

Just out of interest what day was that? I caught the 06:46 from Shipley a couple of weeks ago and was nowhere near full there, even though the 06:38 LNER service had been cancelled from Bradford FS.

I must confess though, personally I'm right now weighing up my options regarding WFH. We are only supposed to be working 8 in 28 at the office, and as such I've just been using Flex tickets to match. However having had a wrangle with my energy supplier this week, where they tried to increase my estimated yearly bill by almost a factor of 5, I'm now thinking about increasing my days in the office to at least 3 a week, and so I may switch back to a monthly MCard & will mean many more commutes into the big smoke of West Yorkshire. And talking amongst other colleagues, many are thinking the same.

 

[bib]

Looking at these stats, if national rail is at 90% pre-covid, but London travel is at 75% (using the Tube as a proxy), then given that I think its something like 65% of rail journeys begin or end in London, there must be a fair few areas outside London with >100% pre-covid levels.
Not sure if crossrail opening might have distorted the figures a bit.

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

 

[Bald Rick]

It doesn't seem like a popular time to go on holiday (Christmas/New Year are obvious holidays, Feb/March seems to be popular skiing holiday times, then Easter in March/April is obvious, then you have May/June/September as summer holiday for people without kids, and July/August as school summer holiday)?

It’s exactly this. People start drifting away for Christmas from early Dec, and people also take odd days off through that month to use up leave / see friends / parties etc. Then skiing through to April, when spring holidays start to pick up, then through the Summer. People without kids are more likely to holiday in June / September when the weather is still good and prices cheaper. But with the exception of half term, not many people go away on Oct / Nov.

 

[Peter Sarf]

It’s exactly this. People start drifting away for Christmas from early Dec, and people also take odd days off through that month to use up leave / see friends / parties etc. Then skiing through to April, when spring holidays start to pick up, then through the Summer. People without kids are more likely to holiday in June / September when the weather is still good and prices cheaper. But with the exception of half term, not many people go away on Oct / Nov.

I would add to that. I wonder how many people have a leave year ending at 31/12 ?. In my experience those people will have run out of leave by about the time the kids go back after the summer break and they will be saving what they have left for Christmas. The leave years that end at the end of March do not seem to exhibit that shortage towards the end but then there is not a big/obvious need for leave at the end of that period.

Perversely I was always trying to carry over leave !. But I often had bosses who were more used to dealing with a leave shortage over October - December and requests from colleagues for unpaid leave.

Covid did screw all that up and at my workplace many of us were (trying to) carrying over 10+ days from 2020 to 2021 !. But I suspect things have settled down since then.

Working From Home has another disadvantage. Too many people stuck at home together all day leading to stress. I think there is an emerging current of marital problems appearing now.

I am one of those who got fed up with the Covid induced stress at work. Decided to be poorer but free. But I am thinking of un-retiring-early as I am getting bored and the spare time seems to vanish anyway. But I am only going to do what I want to do so not very "young and enthusiastic". For commuting this means there maybe many who took early retirement once they had sniffed freedom but now want to go back to work BUT will they want to take jobs involving a commute ?.