Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[yorksrob]

It's interesting that passenger numbers are at around 90% pre-pandemic, yet revenues are at around 75%.

It seems that passengers are getting better at not being fleeced.

 

[Need2]

It's interesting that passenger numbers are at around 90% pre-pandemic, yet revenues are at around 75%.

It seems that passengers are getting better at not being fleeced.

Or more people are simply not paying?

 

[WelshBluebird]

It's interesting that passenger numbers are at around 90% pre-pandemic, yet revenues are at around 75%.

It seems that passengers are getting better at not being fleeced.

Or more people are simply not paying?

Likely a combination of:

1. People travelling at less expensive times. Getting the first off peak train rather than the peak train. Certainly where I work there has been a shift to meetings starting later in the day for times when those of us in Bristol or Manchester need to be in London to allow off peak travel.
2. People travelling some days of the week not all meaning a season ticket ends up being more expensive than buying singles / returns for the journeys made. Means overall less revenue from that person.
3. Possible effects of less first class revenue (no numbers to back this up but I do wonder if business related first class usage hasn't recovered as much as standard class has).

 

[Dai Corner]

Or more people are simply not paying?

Or more are able to travel off-peak?

 

[J-2739]

It's interesting that passenger numbers are at around 90% pre-pandemic, yet revenues are at around 75%.

It seems that passengers are getting better at not being fleeced.

Or the 'wrong type of passengers' have returned?

 

[yorksrob]

Or more people are simply not paying?

I'm not at all convinced that people have more opportunity or more propensity not to pay their fare than before 2020.

Likely a combination of:

1. People travelling at less expensive times. Getting the first off peak train rather than the peak train. Certainly where I work there has been a shift to meetings starting later in the day for times when those of us in Bristol or Manchester need to be in London to allow off peak travel.
2. People travelling some days of the week not all meaning a season ticket ends up being more expensive than buying singles / returns for the journeys made. Means overall less revenue from that person.
3. Possible effects of less first class revenue (no numbers to back this up but I do wonder if business related first class usage hasn't recovered as much as standard class has).

Or more are able to travel off-peak?

I think that these are it. The industry has always promoted the idea that passengers should "be more flexible" safe in the knowledge that many couldn't. Well, now more can !

Or the 'wrong type of passengers' have returned?

To Misquote Stephen Stills, if you can't be with the passengers you love, love the passengers you're with.

 

[30907]

Likely a combination of:

1. People travelling at less expensive times. Getting the first off peak train rather than the peak train. Certainly where I work there has been a shift to meetings starting later in the day for times when those of us in Bristol or Manchester need to be in London to allow off peak travel
2. Possible effects of less first class revenue (no numbers to back this up but I do wonder if business related first class usage hasn't recovered as much as standard class has).

Persistent comments here and elsewhere that "business" traffic is still well below historic levels (which covers both your points, but is wider).
Longer-distance commuting down in general (as well as daily in particular) - which of course is mostly a London thing ("NSE plus" area).

 

[Peter0124]

No chance - May 23 is already sorted.


broader point: this time of year, ie this week to end of November, is always the busiest time of the year for commuting. So whilst the trains may feel like they are busier than they have been for some time*, proportionally compared to the same time of year Pre covid, it is still less than 80%.

*Albeit actually they are not as busy as they were the week before last. At network level.

Do you know what May 23 service levels are like for Avanti and Scotrail Glasgow services? Are they back to pre covid?

 

[Metro95]

Do you know what May 23 service levels are like for Avanti and Scotrail Glasgow services? Are they back to pre covid?

Who knows it's still several months away

 

[geoffk]

This is certainly my observations too, at Exeter Central the other morning we actually had to open the gateline three times due to sheer volume when the 0818 SWR arrives with an Exmouth and a Paignton a couple of minutes either side. Central staff, myself and two other inspectors we still managed to conduct a manual check further down near the ticket office! The Devon metro services recovered quite quickly both peak an off-peak as most employment in the area is hospitality/retail.
Its interesting that Paignton services are all very well loaded compared to pre covid, despite pre covid the service being predominantly hourly whereas its now half hourly and all 3/4 car (booked).

The Okehampton has also become busy in peak time since the start of term, I think this is probably that when the Devon County Council scholar passes were re-issued they have done so on rail rather than bus.

I con confirm the trends in Devon and of course there is a large movement of Exeter College students from a wide area. When I lived in Worcester we (the County Council) did annual counts of scholars at Foregate Street and I don't know what those numbers are like now.

 

[nw1]

Not trains - but where I am (large town in southern England) the buses, and the car traffic, seem as busy as it was pre-Covid.

Oddly, part of the bus route seems to jam up around 9-9.30 but is clearer around 8.30. Not sure if people are arriving in work later?

 

[gazzaa2]

The recent uptick in numbers through the week would suggest the train strikes next midweek will hit more than before.

It’s exactly this. People start drifting away for Christmas from early Dec, and people also take odd days off through that month to use up leave / see friends / parties etc. Then skiing through to April, when spring holidays start to pick up, then through the Summer. People without kids are more likely to holiday in June / September when the weather is still good and prices cheaper. But with the exception of half term, not many people go away on Oct / Nov.

What about the half term week?

 

[Peter Sarf]

Not trains - but where I am (large town in southern England) the buses, and the car traffic, seem as busy as it was pre-Covid.

Oddly, part of the bus route seems to jam up around 9-9.30 but is clearer around 8.30. Not sure if people are arriving in work later?

That reminds me. Car traffic died away in 2020 but by early 2021 was busier then ever on my commute. Probably people commuting but no longer by public transport.

 

[stuu]

As an anecdotal single data point, I need to go to London in a couple of weeks on a peak time train. One of the early departures is the cheapest available all day, and is cheaper than I have seen in a decade or so of regularly using that route (Gwr from Taunton)

 

[dk1]

As an anecdotal single data point, I need to go to London in a couple of weeks on a peak time train. One of the early departures is the cheapest available all day, and is cheaper than I have seen in a decade or so of regularly using that route (Gwr from Taunton)

Would that be on a Monday or Friday by chance?

 

[stuu]

Would that be on a Monday or Friday by chance?

No, a Thursday

 

[Bald Rick]

I wonder how many people have a leave year ending at 31/12 ?. In my experience those people will have run out of leave by about the time the kids go back after the summer break and they will be saving what they have left for Christmas.

it’s quite the opposite in the rail industry, people have loads of leave left and take a lot in December to use it up. Hence crew caused cancellations are usually higher in December.

It's interesting that passenger numbers are at around 90% pre-pandemic, yet revenues are at around 75%.

It seems that passengers are getting better at not being fleeced.

Three main reasons:

1) average trip length is shorter, and therefore average fare is shorter

2) better return for commuting in the regions than to London - again commuter fares typically cheaper in the regions on a per mile basis (compare the season ticket price for Harrogate - Leeds with St Albans - London, similar distances).

3) Decimation of high yield mid-long commuting and business travel.

What about the half term week?

well yes, that drops off. The week after is just about the busiest on the network though, inconveniently at the same time as ‘peak autumn’.

 

[43066]

it’s quite the opposite in the rail industry, people have loads of leave left and take a lot in December to use it up. Hence crew caused cancellations are usually higher in December.

Not sure how you work that out when most crew leave is rostered, usually (for drivers) a week in the spring, two weeks summer and a week in the autumn/winter. Ad-hoc days are available to take through the year, but are on a first come first served basis. Therefore if you end up with several ad hoc days remaining in December you’ll likely be unable to use them. There are also restrictions on rolling unused leave over to the following year, so people generally spread ad hoc days throughout the year.

This should be very predictable and easy for TOCs to manage….

 

[dk1]

it’s quite the opposite in the rail industry, people have loads of leave left and take a lot in December to use it up. Hence crew caused cancellations are usually higher in December.

We get a lot of declined leave (loose days) during December which then allows those days to be carried over until the end of the financial year. Even those who don’t try still get them carried over. I have never known any driver get them taken away.

 

[LowLevel]

Our lot let you use your leave until the end of March, though in practice if you've the odd day after that they don't tend to take it away from you.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not sure how you work that out when most crew leave is rostered, usually (for drivers) a week in the spring, two weeks summer and a week in the autumn/winter. Ad-hoc days are available to take through the year, but are on a first come first served basis, and you’ll generally spread throughout the year. There are also restrictions on rolling unused leave over to the following year, so people generally spread ad hoc days throughout the year.

This should be very predictable and easy for TOCs to manage….

Every TOC I have ever worked with, without exception, has had an issue with December leave. Also a problem in getting people to cover the gaps, of course, which is less of an issue at other times of year.

 

[LowLevel]

Every TOC I have ever worked with, without exception, has had an issue with December leave. Also a problem in getting people to cover the gaps, of course, which is less of an issue at other times of year.

To be fair though that probably also has a lot to do with people wanting to go on pre Christmas drinking sessions, family occasions, football and so on. We also find that until the cut-off for the pre Christmas pay day rest day work is quite popular - after that you can't get people in

 

[43066]

Every TOC I have ever worked with, without exception, has had an issue with December leave. Also a problem in getting people to cover the gaps, of course, which is less of an issue at other times of year.

Could it be that, at every TOC you’ve worked with, there aren’t enough staff to cover the work.

TOCs generally seem very poor at managing crew resource levels.

 

[Mag_seven]

3) Decimation of high yield mid-long commuting and business travel.

I suspect that the days of people spending vast amounts of money on first class open returns to attend meetings in London are over when it can all be done over "Zoom" or even with the use of teleconference facilities. They were beginning to be used when I left the world of work in 2017 - the pandemic has no doubt accelerated their use to the detriment of the railway.

 

[Bald Rick]

I suspect that the days of people spending vast amounts of money on first class open returns to attend meetings in London are over when it can all be done over "Zoom" or even with the use of teleconference facilities. They were beginning to be used when I left the world of work in 2017 - the pandemic has no doubt accelerated their use to the detriment of the railway.

Correct.

Could it be that, at every TOC you’ve worked with, there aren’t enough staff to cover the work.

In December, yes. More than enough in January, though.

 

[the sniper]

Could it be that, at every TOC you’ve worked with, there aren’t enough staff to cover the work.

TOCs generally seem very poor at managing crew resource levels.

No, no. All were fully staffed I'm sure, just like the likes of Avanti. Just couldn't roster for the long agreed, fully known maximum number of floating days that can can granted on any given day...

 

[E27007]

Figures from the Dept of Transport published in the London Evening Standard for travel on Monday 26th September 2022.
London Undertground: 2.79 million tripos, 72% of "normal"
and the highest number since March 9th 2020, two weeks before lockdown.
Buses, more than 5 million journeys, 80% of normal.

So a long way to go before we reach the giddy heights of pre-Covid travel.

 

[Class 170101]

The “high peak” is still markedly less pronounced, but mid-mornings are busier. Of course there are fewer season tickets being sold hence revenue will lag passenger numbers. But ultimately the point of the railway is to transport passengers not raise revenue…

To a point the purpose of the railway is to transport passengers rather than raise revenue however the greater the revenue the lesser the gap requires filling with subsidy - taxpayers money. However season tickets themselves are subsidised. In my observations there is a proportion of customers who are travelling on the first trains post 09:00 to save money. Somke may also be using advance purchase if they can get them. So don't assume just because season ticket revenue is falling that bad things are happening.

Figures from the Dept of Transport published in the London Evening Standard for travel on Monday 26th September 2022.
London Undertground: 2.79 million tripos, 72% of "normal"
and the highest number since March 9th 2020, two weeks before lockdown.
Buses, more than 5 million journeys, 80% of normal.

So a long way to go before we reach the giddy heights of pre-Covid travel.

Firstly I'd be more interested in Tuesday to Thursday figures but more fundamentally does the article breakdown the figures day by day. So Monday with Pre Covid Monday, Tuesday to Tuesday etc.

Secondly where do the current figures take us back to? Loadings of 2011 or somewhere else?

 

[Magdalen Road]

As documented in a couple of other threads, the Great Northern Fen Line service reduction due to drought infested engineering works enters it's 6th week.
With no then few, fast trains, and no direct trains to /from King's Lynn (change at Cambridge) this will have affected the passenger numbers and peak loading times.
Early travellers are having to change at Cambridge for the TL St Pancras trains - which would usually be a direct train. So the datagrab from 27/9/22 for GTR in part is an anomaly compared "usual". There have also been weekly (sometimes several times a week) disruptions to the STP - Peterborough lines and KGX - KLN lines, so again the distribution of passengers reflects forced loading and times, rather the desired or intended time of travel.

 

[BrianW]

Conversely in multi-occupation houses, the house may need to be kept warm all day for other occupants anyway. I'm retired, but my partner is fully WFH to avoid the cost and stress of a 45 - 60 minute motorway and main road drive each way.

Even if she wanted to go back to full time in the office, her department has been moved to an office with only enough "hot desks" for about half their number to be in at once. In practice, those living nearby work in the office frequently, while those living furthest away are mostly full time WFH. That's unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

The work she does was almost entirely conducted by phone and email even before covid, and with the addition of MS Teams, it really makes little or no difference where she works from.

I would add to that. I wonder how many people have a leave year ending at 31/12 ?. In my experience those people will have run out of leave by about the time the kids go back after the summer break and they will be saving what they have left for Christmas. The leave years that end at the end of March do not seem to exhibit that shortage towards the end but then there is not a big/obvious need for leave at the end of that period.

Perversely I was always trying to carry over leave !. But I often had bosses who were more used to dealing with a leave shortage over October - December and requests from colleagues for unpaid leave.

Covid did screw all that up and at my workplace many of us were (trying to) carrying over 10+ days from 2020 to 2021 !. But I suspect things have settled down since then.

Working From Home has another disadvantage. Too many people stuck at home together all day leading to stress. I think there is an emerging current of marital problems appearing now.

I am one of those who got fed up with the Covid induced stress at work. Decided to be poorer but free. But I am thinking of un-retiring-early as I am getting bored and the spare time seems to vanish anyway. But I am only going to do what I want to do so not very "young and enthusiastic". For commuting this means there maybe many who took early retirement once they had sniffed freedom but now want to go back to work BUT will they want to take jobs involving a commute ?.

There are, and have been, many factors at work- a continuing challenge for those planning provision.

A lot of folk found working from home (WFH), and commuting less or not at all, attractive;

For some, WFH palled, or was appalling- kids at home, lack of social interaction, mental health issues ...

Offices downsized/ relocated/ hotdesking

Meantime, pubs, restaurants, theatres closed, groceries and presents delivered

Utility costs rocketing, so reducing WFH?

Value (?) of 'Season tickets'

Greater ability to avoid peaks

Railways wanting/ needing to contain costs- fewer/ longer trains / fewer staff

People tend to choose to live in places conducive to their travel at that time- these change. Perceptions change too, eg Southall to the City via Eliz Line.

I would imagine that train travel from the more 'well-heeled' areas has reduced more than elsewhere- those folk get to choose where and when to work.