Penrith to Keswick

[Mutant Lemming]

Wasn't there ever any thoughts of a light railway ( a la South Tynedale or R & E) for the Penrith - Keswick stretch after closure?

 

[cyclebytrain]

It would be knocking the door of £500m just for Penrith - Keswick.

Meanwhile, in a couple of weeks I shall be using the express bus on the route from Penrith station to central Keswick. It takes 40 minutes and costs £6.50. Quite how investing half a billion quid of public money to make it a bit quicker for (presumably) similar fares could ever make a business case is beyond me.

Good luck with that; as a local who uses that bus regularly I'd suggest that you might want to ensure that
a) You have a tenner in your pocket, because the prices have gone up.
b) Allow an hour for the journey.
c) Remember that the last bus back to Penrith now leaves at 1912.
d) Keep a good eye out because Stagecoach can't decide where they want the bus stop at Penrith to actually be when going West.

The case for reopening the railway may be dubious (personally, I can think of better ways to spend money locally) but suggesting that it would only make minor journey time improvements is total nonsense.

The bus is very slow, averaging about 30mph. A 75mph line speed would more or less halve the journey time compared to the current bus and that's a serious journey time improvement. Not that a bus couldn't do that too of course (see the 25 minute journey time of the one Booths supermarket ran to their store in Penrith while their Keswick store was flooded).

 

[Mordac]

The single track section is comparatively short anyway I believe.

There's two single track sections. One just West of Barrow station, the other, larger one between Whitehaven and Sellafield. This latter is about 12 miles. If you look at the timetable, you'll see quite a few gaps in through workings which are down to the capacity constraints caused by these sections.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Improvements are being looked at for the cumbrian coast obviously. Reopening this line has not even been mentioned in the discussions so i think any hope of that is very wishful.

If the railway is ready when the construction begins i will be beyond shocked.

 

[Lemmy99uk]

There's two single track sections. One just West of Barrow station, the other, larger one between Whitehaven and Sellafield. This latter is about 12 miles. If you look at the timetable, you'll see quite a few gaps in through workings which are down to the capacity constraints caused by these sections.

There is single line track between Parton and Harrington, compounded by a 15mph speed restriction because of unstable geology. It is single line at Whitehaven Station through to St Bees where there is a passing loop (not long enough to pass the freight trains envisaged). It is then single line again all the way from St Bees to Sellafield. Finally, there is the single line section at Park South near Barrow, although the Barrow avoiding line is double track.
Additionally, there is a long section between Wigton and Marport that severely limits capacity as well as restrictions on trains passing around the Aspatria area.

As it stands now, the core section from Workington to Sellafield is at about 85% capacity.

Potential interventions range from double tracking from Corkickle, installing additional signals at Aspatria to extending the length of the loop at St Bees.

A recent consultation document sent to residents warned them of potential compulsory purchase of their properties to enable expansion of the rail network.

 

[Lankyline]

Just in case anyone has forgotten, the line from Workington to Keswick was closed and the A66 was built on the alignment, so there's no chance of it's reinstatement. The Penrith to Keswick section is a private initiative not reliant on taxpayers money but on commercial & individual funding.
Imo I think ckp's case is handicapped by a lack of unilateral support from the local authorities, without that it's going to be difficult at best to get it off the ground

 

[BigCj34]

By the sounds of it then, with the amount of single tracked line and speed restrictions on the Cumbria Coast, money is better spent on upgrading the existing line significantly, if the line allowed the Sprinter's to go at their top speed of 75mph then the Barrow-Carlisle route could possibly have at least 45 minutes off slashed off it's 2:30 trip. Also the CKP route would only compliment the A66, which is a decent road for Cumbrian standards. The A595 on the other hand is awful, effectively having its own "single-track" sections!

How well does the Windermere branch line do? That's probably the best comparison to the viability of the Penrith - Keswick line, even though it's half the distance and single track.

 

[Lankyline]

How well does the Windermere branch line do? That's probably the best comparison to the viability of the Penrith - Keswick line, even though it's half the distance and single track.

CKP's business case estimates between 230,000 & 320,000 passengers per annum with a bcr range from 1.32 to 2.59, Windermere has approx 400,000 users per year and the whole line approx 1 million, based on 2013/14 year figures

 

[Bald Rick]

CKP's business case estimates between 230,000 & 320,000 passengers per annum with a bcr range from 1.32 to 2.59, Windermere has approx 400,000 users per year and the whole line approx 1 million, based on 2013/14 year figures

Is the detail for that BCR available anywhere publicly? I'd love to have a read if so.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

By the sounds of it then, with the amount of single tracked line and speed restrictions on the Cumbria Coast, money is better spent on upgrading the existing line significantly, if the line allowed the Sprinter's to go at their top speed of 75mph then the Barrow-Carlisle route could possibly have at least 45 minutes off slashed off it's 2:30 trip.

Having just taken a look at the timetable, I have to say I completely agree with you. Slow, infrequent, non-clockface timings. Looks to me like a textbook example of how to suppress demand by providing a poor service. Some of the services actually take nearly 3 hours to get from Carlisle to Barrow - it doesn't take much longer than that to get from Carlisle to London! If linespeed improvements and double tracking could give you a clockface timetable with more reasonable journey times, I would imagine that would be money very well spent. I wonder if you'd then find you would get enough demand to justify a half-hourly service, at least from Carlisle to Whitehaven?

 

[ItsGrimUpNorth]

We had a good discussion not so long back on this!

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=122493

 

[snowball]

We had a good discussion not so long back on this!

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=122493

When I found the thread linked in #23, I thought "Surely it isn't as long ago as two years that this was last discussed!".

 

[Lankyline]

Is the detail for that BCR available anywhere publicly? I'd love to have a read if so.

I got the info from CKP's website, http://ckprailway.com/ you might have to subscribe to get the detail, it's not exactly the best organised site I've seen !

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I got the info from CKP's website, http://ckprailway.com/ you might have to subscribe to get the detail, it's not exactly the best organised site I've seen !

You don't need to subscribe. Go to the above link. In the long set of links at the top of the page, click on BUSINESS CASE, then scroll down to near the bottom of the page where there are links to download the Executive summary or the full report.

Annoyingly, every page on the site seems to have the same URL (I guess it's using POST data to tell which page you really want), which makes it impossible to post direct links to anywhere other than the home page.

 

[quantinghome]

Good luck with that; as a local who uses that bus regularly I'd suggest that you might want to ensure that
a) You have a tenner in your pocket, because the prices have gone up.
b) Allow an hour for the journey.
c) Remember that the last bus back to Penrith now leaves at 1912.
d) Keep a good eye out because Stagecoach can't decide where they want the bus stop at Penrith to actually be when going West.

The case for reopening the railway may be dubious (personally, I can think of better ways to spend money locally) but suggesting that it would only make minor journey time improvements is total nonsense.

The bus is very slow, averaging about 30mph. A 75mph line speed would more or less halve the journey time compared to the current bus and that's a serious journey time improvement. Not that a bus couldn't do that too of course (see the 25 minute journey time of the one Booths supermarket ran to their store in Penrith while their Keswick store was flooded).

There is nothing stopping Stagecoach (or a competitor) from running a decent SwissPost-style coach service that connects well with the trains, has faster journeys, runs more frequently and later into the evening. The only investment needed by Stagecoach would be the vehicles and increased operational costs for a more frequent service. It could be up and running in a matter of months.

The present poor service indicates there is not the demand to justify an improved connecting service from Penrith to Keswick, not without financial support from the local authority anyway. It's unlikely that bus companies have failed to spot an opportunity. If this is the case, I can't see that a reinstated rail service costing hundreds of millions would be at all viable. A useful comparison would be Ripon, which has a 15 minute interval high(ish) quality bus service to Leeds. Reinstating the Ripon-Harrogate railway is another "hardy perennial" project which has yet to see the light of day, even though it's shorter and has less infrastructure obstacles to overcome. If a connection with higher demand and less capital costs is problematic, I can't see how Keswick-Penrith could ever work.

 

[BigCj34]

I think there's a lot of psychological factors that are involved that bus use statistics may not indicate, in determining if a train line would be successful. Presumably the Borders railway has a lot more patronage than the bus service has ever had, while 'bus-stitution' after the Beaching cuts was not successful. For one thing, it's a lot handier to go onto thetrainline.com or go the station and buy your ticket (or tickets, for all you ticket splitters) to Ripon or Keswick and that's your journey. Once you start having to root out timetables for connecting buses online (PDF copies of Stagecoach timetables aren't so easy on the eyes), and potentially having to find where the bus station is, people will lose interest. Trains are generally more comfortable, and people may well choose to get a taxi to complete the journey instead.

The Borders railway and the Windermere branch would be better comparisons for the Keswick railway reopening than the bus service would, in my opinion.

 

[Altnabreac]

I think there's a lot of psychological factors that are involved that bus use statistics may not indicate, in determining if a train line would be successful. Presumably the Borders railway has a lot more patronage than the bus service has ever had, while 'bus-stitution' after the Beaching cuts was not successful. For one thing, it's a lot handier to go onto thetrainline.com or go the station and buy your ticket (or tickets, for all you ticket splitters) to Ripon or Keswick and that's your journey. Once you start having to root out timetables for connecting buses online (PDF copies of Stagecoach timetables aren't so easy on the eyes), and potentially having to find where the bus station is, people will lose interest. Trains are generally more comfortable, and people may well choose to get a taxi to complete the journey instead.

The Borders railway and the Windermere branch would be better comparisons for the Keswick railway reopening than the bus service would, in my opinion.

The Borders Railway links Galashiels with a population of 15,000 and Tweedbank as a railhead for the other 30,000 population in the Central Borders area at one end, via another 50,000 people in Midlothian including the 15,000 population towns of Dalkeith and Bonnyrigg directly to Edinburgh, the capital city and main economic powerhouse of South East Scotland with a population of well over 500,000 a growing economy and a history of above inflation house price growth encouraging commuters to seek out property in surrounding areas.

Keswick has a population of 5,000 and a railway would link it to Penrith, a small market town with a population of 15,000 that is not exactly an economic dynamo.

Comparing the Borders Railway to Keswick is therefore extremely foolish as they are very different areas, with different populations, likely travel demands and potential.

 

[BigCj34]

The Borders Railway links Galashiels with a population of 15,000 and Tweedbank as a railhead for the other 30,000 population in the Central Borders area at one end, via another 50,000 people in Midlothian including the 15,000 population towns of Dalkeith and Bonnyrigg directly to Edinburgh, the capital city and main economic powerhouse of South East Scotland with a population of well over 500,000 a growing economy and a history of above inflation house price growth encouraging commuters to seek out property in surrounding areas.

Keswick has a population of 5,000 and a railway would link it to Penrith, a small market town with a population of 15,000 that is not exactly an economic dynamo.

Comparing the Borders Railway to Keswick is therefore extremely foolish as they are very different areas, with different populations, likely travel demands and potential.

I guess I'll have to eat my words partly on that one. But I retain my point on the psychology aspect, the patronage of Borders rail demonstrated from its higher than forecast numbers people who won't use the bus may well flock to the train, which has also been the case for other reopenings. Also the Windermere branch is a valid comparison, and does quite well, although the catchment area is more than Keswick.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I guess I'll have to eat my words partly on that one. But I retain my point on the psychology aspect, the patronage of Borders rail demonstrated from its higher than forecast numbers people who won't use the bus may well flock to the train, which has also been the case for other reopenings. Also the Windermere branch is a valid comparison, and does quite well, although the catchment area is more than Keswick.

In that regard, it may be worth mentioning that Windermere is currently the only reachable-by-rail destination in the Lake District, so it seems likely that some custom on the Windermere line is by people who want to go to other Lake District locations but go to Windermere first because they want to go by rail. Following that thought through, you'd probably expect that if Keswick reopened, at least a portion of the custom would be people abstracted away from the Windermere line rather than new rail passengers. Probably not a huge impact, but could be a small negative in the business case.

(I'd still in principle like to see the line reopened though, although I recognize there are hundreds of higher priority things to do around the country).

 

[snowball]

In that regard, it may be worth mentioning that Windermere is currently the only reachable-by-rail destination in the Lake District

To be pedantic, Silecroft, Bootle and Ravenglass stations are within the National Park boundary.

 

[railjock]

The Borders Railway links Galashiels with a population of 15,000 and Tweedbank as a railhead for the other 30,000 population in the Central Borders area at one end, via another 50,000 people in Midlothian including the 15,000 population towns of Dalkeith and Bonnyrigg directly to Edinburgh, the capital city and main economic powerhouse of South East Scotland with a population of well over 500,000 a growing economy and a history of above inflation house price growth encouraging commuters to seek out property in surrounding areas.

Keswick has a population of 5,000 and a railway would link it to Penrith, a small market town with a population of 15,000 that is not exactly an economic dynamo.

Comparing the Borders Railway to Keswick is therefore extremely foolish as they are very different areas, with different populations, likely travel demands and potential.

Not to mention the planned 'new town' at Shawfair.

 

[Altfish]

I don't think it helps the case that the junction is (was) north facing. I think more traffic would come from the south and through trains (a la Windermere) could be run.

 

[randyrippley]

Only reason for reopening any of the Lake District lines would be solely to enhance tourism, and the most effective route to do that on would be the Coniston branch. Coniston is a tourism hotspot with horrendous access. Rail rejuvenation would deliver massive improvements in access, and vehicle reduction.

 

[markindurham]

I don't think it helps the case that the junction is (was) north facing. I think more traffic would come from the south and through trains (a la Windermere) could be run.

You're referring to timetabled services, yes? By going into Penrith to reverse, you also offer more travel opportunities. As most trains these days are multiple units or push-pull operation, reversal can be done during a normal station stop period anyway. Also, you're off the main running lines at Penrith too, so you're not blocking the main whilst reversing.

 

[themiller]

There is single line track between Parton and Harrington, compounded by a 15mph speed restriction because of unstable geology. It is single line at Whitehaven Station through to St Bees where there is a passing loop (not long enough to pass the freight trains envisaged). It is then single line again all the way from St Bees to Sellafield. Finally, there is the single line section at Park South near Barrow, although the Barrow avoiding line is double track.
Additionally, there is a long section between Wigton and Marport that severely limits capacity as well as restrictions on trains passing around the Aspatria area.

As it stands now, the core section from Workington to Sellafield is at about 85% capacity.

Potential interventions range from double tracking from Corkickle, installing additional signals at Aspatria to extending the length of the loop at St Bees.


A recent consultation document sent to residents warned them of potential compulsory purchase of their properties to enable expansion of the rail network.

I attended the final public consultation exhibition at Whitehaven this week. The railway development associated with the proposed Moorside NPS is limited to a second platform at Corkickle and the redevelopment of the existing one, doubling of the line for something over 3km from Corkickle toward St Bees, a new two platform station at Mirehouse, extension of the passing loop at St Bees toward Sellafield, a new station at the power station and freight trans-shipment sidings with connections from north and south. All of the proposals are available to view online at the Nugen website: https://nugenconsultation.com/stage-two-consultation/documents/

 

[FQTV]

Comparing the Borders Railway to Keswick is therefore extremely foolish as they are very different areas, with different populations, likely travel demands and potential.

Quite so.

With c1.5 million visitors to Keswick annually, all of whom must currently arrive by road, comparisons with Galashiels are extremely foolish.

 

[Bevan Price]

By the sounds of it then, with the amount of single tracked line and speed restrictions on the Cumbria Coast, money is better spent on upgrading the existing line significantly, if the line allowed the Sprinter's to go at their top speed of 75mph then the Barrow-Carlisle route could possibly have at least 45 minutes off slashed off it's 2:30 trip. Also the CKP route would only compliment the A66, which is a decent road for Cumbrian standards. The A595 on the other hand is awful, effectively having its own "single-track" sections!

How well does the Windermere branch line do? That's probably the best comparison to the viability of the Penrith - Keswick line, even though it's half the distance and single track.

Raising the speed limit on the Cumbrian Coast line would have only a marginal effect on overall journey times a few minutes improvement at most. Many of the stations are too close together for a Class 156 even to reach 75 mph. The only way to get much faster journey times would be to run some "express" services calling only at (say) Barrow, Millom, Ravenglass, Sellafield, St. Bees, Whitehaven, Workington, Maryport, Wigton & Carlisle.


As for Penrith - Keswick - Workington -- if it still existed, it would probably be a useful transport link, well used in the "tourist" season. However, restoration now would be almost unaffordable - too much has been destroyed.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

To be pedantic, Silecroft, Bootle and Ravenglass stations are within the National Park boundary.

I am not well au fait with the attractions of either Silecroft or Bootle (Cumbria) to make comment, but Ravenglass does have a very well-known narrow-gauge railway attraction. Howsoever, reaching there by rail is far more difficult than can be said to be from Windermere for those travelling from the major population areas of both Greater Manchester and Merseyside.

My good lady wife and I in the past have made numerous direct first-class return journeys to Windermere in the Class 185 units from the Manchester area.

 

[Bald Rick]

Having now read the business case, two things stand out:

1) it is based on a wholly unrealistic estimate of construction cost, which when corrected could be expected to reduce the BCR by a factor of approximately 3

2) it is clear that even under the most optimistic scenarios, the line would require a significant ongoing operational subsidy.

Now whilst (2) isn't necessarily a problem (certain other transport authorities are quite prepared to reopen lines on that basis) the case would need to demonstrate significant economic benefits that outweigh this support. Almost every other reopening has done so through the encouragement of development along the corridor - think the new housing at Rogerstone, the huge amount of development at Ebbw Vale, the new housing at Larkhall, Aylebury Vale (eventually), Alloa, etc etc. Would this be possible in the north lakes?

 

[cyclebytrain]

Having now read the business case, two things stand out:

1) it is based on a wholly unrealistic estimate of construction cost, which when corrected could be expected to reduce the BCR by a factor of approximately 3

2) it is clear that even under the most optimistic scenarios, the line would require a significant ongoing operational subsidy.

Now whilst (2) isn't necessarily a problem (certain other transport authorities are quite prepared to reopen lines on that basis) the case would need to demonstrate significant economic benefits that outweigh this support. Almost every other reopening has done so through the encouragement of development along the corridor - think the new housing at Rogerstone, the huge amount of development at Ebbw Vale, the new housing at Larkhall, Aylebury Vale (eventually), Alloa, etc etc. Would this be possible in the north lakes?

Interesting that the BCR is out by less than I expected.

As for development along the corridor, development at the Keswick end would be tricky. At Threlkeld / Troutbeck it'd be reasonably straightforward and at the Penrith end fairly easy, although obviously that depends on the amount of development. Are you thinking hundreds / thousands / tens of thousands of new houses?