I think something useful to take into account is that cutting services by 20% won’t mean cutting the fleet by 20%.
I’m not convinced that services will be cut by as much as 20% in the long run (my own opinion is that apart from the Victoria-Gatwick shuttles and “peak hour” extras nothing should be cut) however I’m working on the basis of such drastic cuts happening for the basis of my suggestions.
My plan would see the following changes:
In - 30x 379s
Out - 46x 455s, 19x 313s, 4x 171s
Thameslink branded services would not be immune from cuts, and therefore some 700s would be available for other use. For this we’ll work on the basis of 10 700s made spare, all 8 cars. This is less than 10% of the total 700 fleet, so completely conceivable to think there’ll be this number of spare 700s with service cuts of 20%. Rather than using these out of Kings Cross, I’d actually have them work 8 car max “Metro” routes out of Victoria or London Bridge, directly replacing 20 455s.
Gatwick Express would almost certainly go back to being just the 2tph Brighton service. We’ll assume that frees up 12 387s (4x 12 cars).
The arrival of 379s at Hornsey would free up all 29 387/1s. Between the two 387 fleets, 41 units would be spare.
16 387s would see off the 313s. The remaining 25 387s would be able to see off the remaining 455s, mostly likely indirectly with a reshuffle involving 377s.
Finally, with there likely not being peak extras to/from Uckfield anymore, the ex-ScotRail 171s could be converted back to 170s and make their way to EMR.
As far as crew training goes, apart from various conversions between different Electrostar classes as and where needed, the only new training needed would be some Southern Metro drivers on 700s.
Not trying to cast doubt on what you are saying has been said, but going by what you have said, could it be that 387101-124 could head south leaving 125-129 up north with the 379 fleet, which could potentially allow for when the 387/3 fleet becomes available to cascade the remaining /1s down south, leaving GN with the 379's and 387/3's. It would be interesting to know how many units are required for SN Brighton/london services as this could be an operational convenience with the GX stock as far as crewing these services.
My apologies if I've got that wrong, but also aware of the thread title and how it might just be my rose tinted specs making me see this as an appropriate post for this thread! Wrist suitably slapped in case I do fall foul of the line!
I believe the 387/3s are confirmed to be heading to GWR (and the three that are already there staying there).
